MLB - Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees ESPN 6pm

Both pitchers have been solid L3, and with Sabathia traditionally strong against the Blue Jays and Happ seemingly settled at his new club and neither lineup hitting lefties L5, I like the Unders here. It's a touch skinny, but looks the bet.

Pick: Under 8.5 @ 1.87

MLB - Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers ESPN 6pm

Difficult to find any value in this game, but a little digging through the pitchers' splits and a glance at the hitting records L5 reveal that Happ can give up runs early (not a huge shock, most pitcher's stats are loaded that way) and Toronto are hitting just .188.

The handicap price is still far too skinny at 1.7+, so I'll reluctantly bet the 5 inning handicap.

Pick: Detroit Tigers -1.5 (5 innings) @ 1.95

MLB - Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees ESPN 1am

Hiroki Kuroda has been solid this season and has spectacular numbers L3. Josh Beckett, on the other hand, has struggled and has a 1.62/10.38 WHIP/ERA line L3.

The home team are hitting righties hard and although Beckett has pitched well at Yankee stadium, I think he could get some stick tonight.

Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 @ 2.20
Pick: Over 8.5 @ 1.90

MLB - Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants ESPN 8.30pm

Lincecum has had a horrible season, but the ship has righted itself a little recently and although the Nats have hit him hard this year, it was long enough ago not to be too terrifying.

Strasburg is likely making one of his final starts of the season this afternoon, but he has been consistently strong and there's little sign of him tiring, it's just very careful rehab after coming back from TJ surgery.

Whenever the total is this low, I look for Unders unless there's some overpowering reason not to: there isn't.

Pick: Under 6.5 @ 2.00

MLB - Texas Rangers at New York Yankees ESPN 12am

I'm going to take the Under here. Kuroda has been strong of late and if Harrison can keep it in the ballpark (the Yankees are hitting lefties 70 points lower than right handed pitchers) Jeff Kellog and the weather can do the rest.

Pick: Under 9 @ 2.00

MLB - Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks ESPN 9pm

The Nats are on an eight game win streak and Ross Detwiler is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA over his last two matchups with the Diamondbacks.

Patrick Corbin has done well since coming back up, but Washington are hitting lefties at an eye-watering .425 L5 with a .465 OBP and the NL East leaders must be the value.

Pick: Washington Nationals @ 2.20

MLB - Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs ESPN 7.15pm

The Reds can't be backed at 1.74 on a five game losing streak with Homer Bailey on the mound. The Cubs have been strong at home, so I'll take the price on the dog.

Pick: Chicago Cubs @ 2.3

MLB - Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics ESPN 8.30pm

'Beginning the 2012 season at Double-A Midland, Straily has been pitching out of his mind. In 14 starts spanning 85.1 innings, he posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.09 WHIP while registering an 11.39 K/9 and 2.43 BB/9. His overall dominance led to a promotion to Triple-A Sacramento in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, where it’s been more of the same: 1.36 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 11.38 K/9 and 2.38 BB/9 in 53 innings.

Straily’s overwhelming success isn’t a product of luck. Rather, he possesses an arsenal of three above-average to plus offerings that are commanded with near precision.' Mike Rosenbaum on August 3, 2012 - Bleacher Report

You can have him as a home dog at 2.28 against Zack Greinke who has hit a rough patch - 1.43/5.14 WHIP/ERA L3.

Straily must be the bet.

Pick: Oakland A's @ 2.28

MLB - Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox ESPN 12am

Dempster got bent over in his first start after arriving at the Rangers, but he's a better pitcher than that and he's certainly having a better season than Lester who is really struggling.

Texas are the value.

Pick: Texas Rangers @ 2.00

MLB - Milwaukee Brewers at St Louis Cardinals ESPN 1am

The Brewers are stinking it up on the road and are hitting .228 on the season away from Miller Park; Marco Estrada just stinks.

The Cards are pushing for the wildcard; Lohse has been solid and is really tough at home.

St Louis have scored 37 runs L5 and are hitting .290 vs righties (this lineup is hitting Estrada at a .327 clip) and plated six runs or more in six of their last eight at Busch Stadium.

I'll give the runs.

Pick: St Louis Cardinals -1.5 @ 2.25

MLB - Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds ESPN 6pm

Two solid pitchers L3 and a Reds' bullpen that is aces.

I'll take Under here.

Pick: Under 8 @ 1.91

MLB - Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds ESPN 12am

I'm looking forward to this one as these two fight it out down the stretch. Latos has nice numbers against the Pirates this season, but with Votto and Phillips (probably) still out, I do get nervous, despite the fact that the offense seemingly hasn't missed a beat and the Reds are, well, red hot.

Contrast Rodriguez, who has weak numbers L3 and a 6.35 ERA against tonight's opposition.

I've got a buddy who says in a Divisional matchup between first and second in the latter half of the season, bet the dog, but he lives in a shelter in downtown Baltimore.

When Latos last took on the Pirates, he didn't give up an earned run (he's never given up more than 2 against them) and struck out 11. I'm going to take on the runline and hope Rodriguez and Latos stay with their numbers and the Reds can put up some runs.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 @ 2.55

Thursday's Live MLB - 3 Games ESPN 5.30pm - 8.30pm - 12am

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds 5.30pm

Cincinnati are rolling, there are echoes of The Big Red Machine, which is all the more remarkable given that Joey Votto is out and Brandon Phillips looks as though he'll be missing too.

Johnny Cueto has been solid and his splits at home are excellent. Ross Ohlendorf has nice numbers L3, but his numbers against the Reds and on the road are less encouraging.

Difficult to wring any value out of the market, but I'll try to ride that home team momentum.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 @ 2.1

New York Mets at San Francisco Giants 8.30pm

The Giants aren't hitting, and although Young hasn't been great L3, he's traditionally done OK in San Francisco, although it's three years since he pitched in AT&T Park.

I'll rely on those elements and Zito's good form, to take this Under.
Pick: Under 7.5 @ 2.00

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals 12am

Cole Hamels owns the Nats and he's the value here.

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies @ 2.04

MLB - Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins ESPN 6pm

Gimme left handed rookies who are home dogs. It's not the perfect situation (the White Sox have seen him before) but Scott Diamond has got good numbers L3 and looks the value here.

Pick: Minnesota Twins @ 2.10