Live NFL - Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1.30am Channel 4

The Bengals benefited from Peyton Manning's wet spaghetti arm last game, but big Ben is going to be less forgiving. Le'Veon Bell  should run all over the Cincinnati defense too.

However, this isn't a toothless tiger, and the Steelers will need to succeed where others have failed recently and put the brakes on Jeremy Hill. I can't see Andy Dalton winning it with his arm - particularly with A J Green still injured and off a short week.

The hosts should have too much balance on offense.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Le'Veon Bell @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jermaine Gresham @ 3.2

Live NFL - Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons 9.25pm Sky Sports

Win or go home in the NFC South, nice.

If Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton dominate as they should on the ground, the Panthers are a live chance. Matt Ryan will be slinging it all night though, so I expect points.

Pick: Carolina Panthers +3 @ 1.91
Pick: Over 47.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Cam Newton @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Jonathan Stewart @ 2.1

Live NFL - San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs 6pm Sky Sports

Rivers got us home last time with a miracle in OT and, if he can keep his head on his shoulders behind his horrible offensive line, he can lead the bolts to a win here too. 

San Diego should be able to get the run going (Branden Oliver to have a big game?) and if that relieves sufficient pressure, Rivers can get it done.

Don't go mad, because the visitors are badly banged up, but they need the win.

Pick: San Diego Chargers @ 2.38

Pick: 1st TD Travis Kelce @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Branden Oliver @ 2.8; Antonio Gates @ 2.1

Live NFL - Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals 1.25am Eurosport

Fade the dog. Denver have started pounding the rock and it works. Peyton is just the cherry on the parfait.

Andy Dalton is a bust.

Merry Christmas!

Pick: Denver Broncos -3 @ 1.83 (you don't need to buy the hook, but I hate moving off key numbers)

Pick: 1st TD C J Anderson @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Julius Thomas @ 2.2

Live NFL - Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys 9.25pm Sky Sports

Dallas have been horrible ATS at home this season, but with Murray suiting up and T Y Hilton looking iffy, I'll take the Cowboys to clinch the NFC East.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3 @ 1.8

Pick: 1st TD Jason Witten @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Joseph Randle @ 2.75

Live NFL - Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers 6pm Sky Sports

A stunning start to the holiday football bets!

People pounded the 3+ on the Chiefs earlier in the week and I understand why in this 'win or go home' meeting, but Ben and his offense are putting up points and provided Jamaal Charles doesn't run all over them, I like the home team now giving up less than a field goal with the LeVeon Bell/Antonio Brown one-two punch.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD LeVeon Bell @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Travis Kelce @ 2

Live NFL - San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers 1.25am Sky Sports

I ripped Sanchez earlier in the season as the same Pick-happy clown as he was in New York ... well, he got his revenge!

The 49ers are out of contention, Harbaugh seems to be headed for the exit, the offensive line has gone AWOL and Kaepernick is stinking it up.

The Chargers don't exactly fill me with joy - Rivers is banged up and he needs to get some protection tonight if they're going to mount any sort of offense.

Keep stakes small and take the Bolts straight up and the Under.

Pick: San Diego Chargers @ 2
Pick: Under 40.5 @ 1.92

Pick: 1st TD Antonio Gates @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Ryan Mathews @ 2.4

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins 9.30pm Sky Sports

Washington are a complete shambles - I'm not entirely sure Gruden isn't bucking to get fired.

Give the points. Easy.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -7 @ 2.0

Pick: 1st TD Jeremy Maclin @10
Pick: Anytime TD Darren Sproles @ 2.5

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars 1.25am Sky Sports

About as edifying as a prostate exam, this game isn't much of a betting proposition either.

When the clown car pulls up, take the points.

Pick: Tennessee Titans +3.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Delanie Walker @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Toby Gerhart @ 2.25

Live NFL - Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers 9.25pm Sky Sports

The Buffalo defense gave Peyton Manning a rough time, but I look for a bounce back here despite John Pagano's very creative approach. The Broncos just have too many options deep and without pressuring Manning, that's asking for trouble. Add in C J Anderson and it's a nice, balanced offense.

Rivers will be under pressure all day and will find it difficult to move the chains, especially with Matthews injured.

Pick: Denver Broncos -4 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD C J Anderson @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Emmanuel Sanders @ 2

NFL - Week 15 Mug Acca and Teaser

Giants 
Patriots
Ravens
Packers
Chiefs
Lions
Seahawks

4.91

6pt Teaser at 5Dimes (Ties Win)

Chiefs -6.5
Ravens -9
Patriots -4.5
Giants -1.5
Lions -3

4.85

Live NFL - Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns 6pm Sky Sports

Heeeere's Johnny!

The Browns aren't blessed downfield, but with Manziel so mobile, there'll at least be another dimension to their run game.

Haden can handcuff Green and without him, the Bengals are pretty anaemic on offense.

I don't see points, but the Browns should be a field goal better.

Pick: Cleveland Browns -2.5 @ 1.95
Pick: Under 44 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Isaiah Crowell @ 9.5
Pick: Anytime TD Josh Gordon @ 2

*Post-game comment

'Johnny football' my arse! Apologies for that one; I lost a bundle so I share your pain.

NFL - Week 14 Mug Acca

Saints
Colts
Lions
Texans
Broncos
49ers
Packers

5.57

Live NFL - Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles 9.25pm Sky Sports

Could be a cracking game, and much hinges upon the Lazarus-like revival of Mark Sanchez. This will be a real test and frankly, I expect him to struggle; the Seahawks can bring it and are capable of forcing Sanchez to throw by bottling up McCoy.

The Seahawks may need to win this on the ground with Lynch and Wilson, but they should just have enough.

Just.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Jordan Matthews @ 2.38

Live NFL - Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns 6pm Sky Sports

Luck could be scrambling a lot today with the Colts' problems along the line, but the Brown' willingness to put Hoyer under center is suicidal.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3 @ 2.0

Pick: 1st TD Dwayne Allen @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Josh Gordon @ 2.1

Live NFL - Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears 1.30am Sky Sports

Dallas stank it up last week (a couple of bad beats I had) and they haven't actually covered since Week 7. 

Romo looked ponderous and may be more badly injured than he's letting on. The Cowboys can't stop the run and they look weak at the corners. However, while I expect Matt Forte to have a big game, Cutler (despite all the weapons downfield) seems to be in a funk. Combine that with some odd decisions by Trestman and you've got an offense that could go either way against a ropey defense with little pass rush.

In truth, I'd stay away, but if you must, take Dallas on the basis that Chicago are winning the race to the bottom.

Pick: Dallas Cowboy -4 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Matt Forte @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten @ 2.5

Live NFL - Miami Dolphins at New York Jets 1.30am Eurosport

I'm still bewildered by the Denver spread last night, but it went some way towards making up for the Pats choking and Pittsburgh messing about for 50 minutes.

The Jets can only be opposed this year. They're horrible.

Pick: Miami Dolphins -6.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Jarvis Landry @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Charles Clay @ 2.75

Live NFL - Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs 1.30am Channel 4

OK, Denver are weaker on the road and seem to be out of sync at the moment, but I'm getting a point?

Pick: Denver Broncos @ 2

Pick: 1st TD C J Anderson @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Travis Kelce @ 2.75

Live NFL - New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers 9.30pm Sky Sports

Nobody goes into Lambeau and wins ....

Well, maybe. This mouthwatering shootout will come down to who can put at least a little hitch in the giddy up of the two struttin' QBs. I prefer the Pats' chances.

The upgrades to the New England secondary, their form and Uncle Bill's press man coverage gives them an edge that Dom Capers seems to lack against truly elite offenses.

Possibly close, maybe a point, so I'll take what's on offer.

Pick: New England Patriots +2.5 @ 2.1

Pick: 1st TD Julian Edelman @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon LaFell @ 2.2

NFL - Week 13 Mug Acca

Colts
Texans
Ravens
Bengals
Rams
Steelers
Dolphins

8.68

Live NFL - New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers 6pm Sky Sports

What the hell, Dallas?

I like Pittsburgh in this position. Their defense has looked weak of late, but when Polamalu is out, they really struggle. Thing is, Troy's back - as are a number of other key players on that side of the ball for the Steelers.

Drew Brees and the Saints' O are as potent as ever (although Pittsburgh can bring pressure) but they're really looking poor defensively and I expect Le'Veon Bell to make hay and Big Ben to successfully attack a sub-par secondary.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Le'Veon Bell @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Marques Colston @ 2.5

Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys 9.30pm Sky Sports

OK, mom is crying in the kitchen and pop has thrown out uncle Joe. It's time to get serious.

America's team at home to the Eagles.

The Philly pass rush will get after Tony Romo, and the D is tough against the run, but this is a defense that gave up 300 yards to Zach Mettenberger and they are prone to big plays at the corners. DeMarco Murray is a back who can punch his way through a brick wall and Dez Bryant will torch the secondary at least once.

Expect McCoy to have a big game and Sanchez to throw a couple of picks, but Dallas should be at least a field goal better.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD LeSean McCoy @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten @ 2.2

Live NFL - Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions 5.30pm Sky Sports

Gobble gobble!

The Bears stink. They stink so bad even Matt Stafford can beat them by two scores.

Sell the stationwagon, give the points.

Pick: Detroit Lions -7.5 @ 2.0

Pick: 1st TD Calvin Johnson @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Detroit D/ST @ 3.75

Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints 1.30am Eurosport

I'm leaning towards the visitors here - a small wager straight up.

I don't like the absentees/injuries to the Saints' receivers and they stink on defense. Forsett could have a big game and if that takes the heat off Flacco, he can get it done. The problem is, Flacco can also play as if it's his first game as a High School walk on, so as I say, a small bet.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens @ 2.25

Pick: 1st TD Justin Forsett @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Torrey Smith @ 2.3

Live NFL - Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants 1.30am Channel 4

Not a game to get involved in.

Eli Manning can be so awful (like he was last week) that he's unbackable, and with the defensive side of the ball a shambles, the Giants should be faded. 

That said, with an injured Romo, in a cold and wet New York, I'm nervous about ignoring the home team on national TV.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -4.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 8 (the only value in this game)
Pick: Anytime TD Rashad Jennings @ 2

Live NFL - Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos 9.25pm Sky Sports

I like the Dolphins pass rush; I don't like the Broncos' O line.
I love Miami as road dogs; I don't like the Denver injuries.
I like Lamar Miller on the ground (and Tannehill extending plays); I don't like the way Denver looked on run D last week.
I like Jarvis Landry ... a lot!
Denver can see Kansas over the horizon.

I'll take the points.

Pick: Miami Dolphins +7 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Mike Wallace @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Jarvis Landry @ 3.25

Live NFL - Detroit Lions at New England Patriots 6pm Sky Sports

Stafford has started passing and hoping with megatron back. Last week saw blind throws under pressure (his protection is weak) and he looks ready to throw a pick at any moment. Today, Johnson lands on Revis island and that doesn't bode well. Joique Bell could see the ball alot, but he's banged up and it may not be enough to salvage the offense.

Tom Brady has weapons all over the field in the passing game and Jonas Gray looks good in the backfield. Detroit is tough to run on, but the Pats have too much on this side of the ball.

Pick: New England Patriots -7 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon LaFell @ 2.3

NFL - Bet Results

ATS 27 - 28

OU 5 - 4

1st TD 7 - 46

Anytime TD 18 - 37

Teaser/Acca 0 - 11

I'll put up the numbers to level stakes over the weekend. 

My poorest season ever ... honest!

Live NFL - Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders 1.25am Sky Sports

The Raiders can't run the ball (not that it matters, as Kansas don't give up much on the ground) and that's too heavy a load for Derek Carr to carry - he'll be forced into long third downs and the Raiders will stumble too often. 

Alex Smith is a passenger for the Chiefs, and the Raiders can bring pressure, but Jamaal Charles will move the chains and I expect him and possibly Knile Davis (late on) to take it to the house.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 @ 2.0

Pick: 1st TD Jamaal Charles @ 5
Pick: Anytime TD Knile Davis @ 3.3

Live NFL - Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans 1.30am Eurosport

Troy Polamalu is still out and that makes me very nervous because he's the beating heart of the Steeler's defense. Last week Pittsburgh's D just couldn't get off the field and it became a shambles.

However, the Titans are pish and I just can't see Big Ben's boys ballsing it up again. Lots of run against a poor front and then deep shots against a rotten secondary and giving less than a TD is too much to resist.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD LeVeon Bell @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Bishop Sankey @ 2.5

NFL - Week 11 Mug Acca

Redskins
Saints
Broncos
Chargers
Steelers

Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers 9.25pm Sky Sports

Well, after Chip Kelly threw Dom Capers badly last year, it'll be interesting to see how Green Bay deal with a resurgent Mark Sanchez in the galloping offense. 

Philadelphia have great numbers on defense, but that secondary isn't a reflection of those glittering stats - they're beatable and there is nobody better at picking apart a ropey secondary than Aaron Rodgers, particularly on his home field.

Look for some big plays deep in the face of the Philly blitz ....

Pick: Green Bay Packers -5.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Jordy Nelson @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jeremy Maclin @ 2.1

Live NFL - Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs 6pm Sky Sports

I don't like:

The 'hawks on the road.
The beast's fitness status.
Russell Wilson's form.
Seattle's focus with big Divisional games coming up.

With a different trigger man under center (hell, with me throwing the pill) I'd put my mortgage on the Chiefs.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Jamaal Charles @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Travis Kelce @ 2.62

Live NFL - Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins 1.30am Sky Sports

The Miami defense has looked very solid this year and they're racking up the sacks. The Bills may struggle to move the chains with the fins pass rush swarming through and Orton had a poor game last week, missing throws and making some poor decisions.

Ryan Tannehill didn't enjoy his first go at the Bills this year and Buffalo also has a more than competent pass rush. To make matters worse, Ja'Wuan James will have to move to Tannehill's blind side to replace the injured Branden Albert. Tannehill will need to get the ball out quickly to Mike Wallace and his buddies if they're going to win. 

I'll take the more complete defense at home. Just.

Pick: Miami Dolphins -4.5 @ 2
Pick: Over 5.5 Total Sacks @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Miami D/ST @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Charles Clay @ 3

Live NFL - Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles 1.30am Eurosport

If the Panthers could keep Cam Newton clean, the visitors' chances would be markedly better (fairly obviously!) but the OL just can't manage it; the Eagles may feast on him tonight. This has seemed to drain the confidence from the rest of the passing game which in ordinary circumstances might look forward to facing down this Eagles defense. There's no run game to talk of, so it looks pretty bleak on that side of the ball.

Unfortunately, the Carolina defense is almost as shambolic and even with Sanchez replacing the injured Foles, the Eagles should be able to move the ball. LeSean McCoy will be licking his lips running against an awful Panthers' run D.

I'll give the points.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -7 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Jeremy Maclin @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Kelvin Benjamin @ 2.38

Live NFL - Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers 1.30am Channel 4

The Bears look like a team on the edge and when Jay Cutler drops his head, all looks lost. Chicago particularly struggle on the defensive side where they look all at sea - that's not good news against Aaron Rodgers.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -7.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Eddie Lacy @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Alshon Jeffrey @ 2

NFL - Week 10 Mug Acca

To win:

Cowboys
Saints
Ravens
Steelers
Broncos
Cardinals
Seahawks
Packers 
Eagles

9.5

Live NFL - New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks 9.25pm Sky Sports

Seattle have looked out of synch lately with problems along the O line and under-performing wide receivers making Russell Wilson look poor. He looked particularly bad last week and there's no doubt the Giants can bring some pressure. On the plus side, New York can't stop the run and are banged up at the corners.

The Giants look like they'll have no run game (against a team that strangles the ground game anyway) but they should be able to throw against a team who haven't got to the QB this season and are carrying injuries deep.

I hate capping the Giants, but I'm looking for a high scoring game as New York have to throw to keep up and a back door cover.

Pick: New York Giants +9.5 @ 1.95
Pick: Over 44.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Odell Beckham @ 2.8

Live NFL - Dallas Cowboys @ Jacksonville Jaguars 6pm Channel 4

Weeden might be under center which, after Andy Dalton proved just what a huge handicap a terrible QB performance can be on Thursday night, does not bode well for the Cowboys. However, Tony Romo seems intent on playing and it is the Jags after all, Dallas must be a TD better.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -7 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 6.0
Pick: Anytime TD Denard Robinson @ 2.25

Live NFL - Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals 1.30am Sky Sports

These teams would kill for a run game, as neither defense seems capable of stopping anything on the ground, however, of the two, Cleveland is struggling the most. Terrance West could have a good game against this D, but frankly, I doubt it'll be enough. This puts the onus on Brian Hoyer - and he has key personnel in the pass game missing.

The Browns will blitz all night and Dalton needs to establish some sort of ground game with Jeremy Hill who has shown great form of late, in order to slow the pressure. Getting the ball out quickly, to the returned A J Green and Mohamed Sanu should do some damage against a Browns secondary that hasn't really produced; Joe Haden is a shutdown corner, but Buster Skrine is all over the place and giving up big plays.

I'll give the points.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Mohamed Sanu @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Terrance West @ 2.8

NFL - Week 9 Teaser

Browns
Chiefs
Bengals
49ers
Seahawks

5 point teaser @ 5.9

Live NFL - Denver Broncos at New England Patriots 9.25pm Sky Sports

Belichick's New England's usual approach to Manning's Denver is to make the Broncos win it on the ground. Last year Denver took huge gains running but came up short, this year however, with New England struggling deep, and receivers in such good form, I expect Manning to take the challenge and beat the Pats with his arm, while mixing it up with Ronnie Hillman on the ground.

The Broncos pass rush will come after Brady, but with the Gronk back on the strength there'll be some challenges for Denver's LB corps, especially if Tom Terrific looks as happy in the pocket as he did last week.

Denver edges a great game. I expect points.

Pick: Denver Broncos -3 @ 1.95
Pick: Over 52.5 @ 2.0

Pick: 1st TD Ronnie Hillman @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Wes Welker @ 3.4

Live NFL - Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys 6pm Sky Sports

If I'm a Cowboy, I don't like Romo this banged up and Arizona's ability to stop the run, because Dallas may need to lean on DeMarco Murray in this one.

Meanwhile, Andre Ellington continues to impress and Carson Palmer has big play options downfield. I expect lots of blitzing of Romo and that should stifle the home team just enough for the Cards to take this.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Andre Ellington @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Larry Fitzgerald @ 2.38

Live NFL - New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers 12.25am Sky Sports

In a pretty dismal season (I'll update the results this weekend, I promise) last week was a washout. The Dallas game ...

Anyway, this looks like a bet on the Saints. Although their defense is poor, Cam Newton has no protection at all from his O line and New Orleans have tried to change it up on the pass rush front of late.

Drew Brees should be able to move the ball with Carolina shaky deep and their defensive front under-performing. Brees has the right targets to take advantage.

Pick: New Orleans Saints -3 @ 1.85

Pick: 1st TD Brandin Cooks @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Kelvin Benjamin @ 2.2

Live NFL - Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys 12.30am Eurosport

This better save my bacon. It's a lunatic bet, but Dallas are far too strong for Washington, particularly as the visitors have Colt McCoy at QB.

Give the lump.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -9 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 6

Pick: Anytime TD Terrance Williams @ 2.1

Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints 12.30am Channel 4

I don't get this line. 

I like the Pack's balance on both sides of the ball and Rodgers is money under center. Brees has lost some zip, Jimmy Graham is banged up and Pierre Thomas is out and the defense is beatable on a good day.

The sharps are pounding the Saints in Vegas, but hell, I didn't get in the poorhouse by accident.

Pick: Green Bay Packers +2.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Jordy Nelson @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Randall Cobb @ 2.0

Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals 8.05pm Sky Sports

The Eagles' O line is beginning to open up lanes for McCoy and he's becoming increasingly dangerous running and catching out of the backfield. Given the Cards strength at the corners, I expect him to figure along with Zach Ertz over the middle.

Arizona are benefiting from a resurgent Carson Palmer and with Larry Fitz and Michael Floyd there is talent wide out, but it's Andre Eliington who has carried much of the offense. He may find less room to operate tonight and with Palmer still likely to turnover the pill with Billy Davis scheming, Philadelphia can take this.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles @ 2.05

Pick: 1st TD Zach Ertz @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Stepfan Taylor @ 4.0

Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnatti Bengals 5pm Sky Sports

Baltimore have too much on the defensive side for the Bengals, who miss A J Green terribly; he may play today, but he's clearly carrying a bad injury. Meanwhile Steve Smith very senior defies his age to keep on putting up numbers and with Justin Forsett showing form out of the backfield, the Ravens look the bet.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens -1.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Giovani Bernard @ 9.5
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.1

Live NFL - Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons 1.30pm Channel 4

Atlanta's O line is in a dreadful state, exposing Matt Ryan who is getting sacked far too much. The net result is that the Falcons are struggling to move the chains using the passing game and with Detroit's LBs playing well, the 'home team's' offense may have its wings clipped.

If megatron goes (I doubt he will) the poor Atlanta defense will be in big problems - as it is is Joique Bell should put up numbers against an anaemic Atlanta defensive front. Golden Tate has done a fine job leading the receiving corps with Calvin Johnson down and look for a couple of big hook ups with Stafford.

Give the points.

Pick: Detroit Lions -3.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Joique Bell @ 9.5
Pick: Anytime TD Calvin Johnson @ 2.0; Golden Tate @ 2.0; Julio Jones @ 2.0

Live NFL - San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos 1.25am Sky Sports

I opposed Peyton Manning on national TV last week and got burned and after seeing what DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller did to the 49ers O line and the way Kansas made Rivers' life so difficult last week, I'm reluctant to oppose Peyton again. However 8.5 points is a lot to give and the Bolts have talent aplenty, so keep stakes low.

The Over might offer some value as Denver get out in front and Rivers has to throw.

Pick: Denver Broncos -8.5 @ 2
Pick: Over 51.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Ronnie Hillman @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Gates @ 2.25

Live NFL - Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers 1.30am Eurosport

God, that was an awful pick on the 49ers last night. Shameful.

The Steelers just can't get it done in the redzone, but Le'Veon Bell should find room to operate with the Texans struggling at LB with a series of injuries. On the flip side, Arian Foster looks capable of a big night against a Steeler run D that can give up yards from scrimmage.

Presumably, the Steelers will load up the box, because Ryan Fitzpatrick is gash and limiting Foster will severely handicap Houston who don't look as though they have enough on offense.

Ben Roethlisberger will be ducking and diving all night as J J Watt comes marauding through the Pittsburgh O line, but Bell with keep the Texans honest and honouring the run, and that in turn should allow Big Ben to hit Antonio Brown for a couple of big plays. There's just a touch more balance.

Give the points.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 @ 2.05

Pick: 1st TD Le'Veon Bell @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Houston D/ST @ 4.5

NFL - Week 7 Teaser

Pinny 7 point teaser

Ravens
Seahawks
Bills
Bears
Packers
Cowboys

6.0

Live NFL - San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos 1.30am Channel 4

In spite of injuries, the 49ers' defense has been strong and even with Peyton going for Brett's record on national TV, I don't have the Broncos a touchdown+ better.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers +7 @ 1.83

Pick: 1st TD Julius Thomas @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Emmanuel Sanders @ 2.1

Live NFL - New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys 9.25pm Sky Sports

Injury may be critical here too, with the Giants looking beaten up. A sparkling Dallas should be a TD better.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Larry Donnell @ 2.5

Live NFL - Cinncinatti Bengals at Inianapolis Colts 6pm Sky Sports

The Colts are playing better than expected on defense and Luck is a leading offensive star. It'll be a tough game, but the Bengals' injuries look decisive.

I'll give the field goal.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Ahmad Bradshaw @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD T Y Hilton @ 2.2

Live NFL - New York Jets at New England Patriots 1.30am Sky Sports

New England should win this going away, but laying this many points on a nationally screened game is a daunting proposition.

Pick: New England Patriots -9.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Julian Edelman @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Eric Decker @ 2.8

Live NFL - San Francisco at St Louis Rams 1.30am Eurosport

I have some concerns about the right side of the 49ers O line against some of the young bucks in the St Louis DL, but this isn't the stop unit of last year.

Lots of Frank Gore looks the recipe and although Austin Davis seems to have the talent to start in the NFL, the visitors should have too much.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -3.5 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Frank Gore @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Brian Quick @ 3.25

Live NFL - New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles 1.30am Channel 4

My least favourite teams to cap ... maybe.

The sharps have hammered the dog all the way down to less than a field goal and I tend to agree as I see two QBs heading in different directions. Eli Manning looks confident and poised, whereas Nick Foles is looking pressured and his mechanics have begun to break down in the pocket.

Again, not one to bet the kids' college fund, but I'll take the points.

Pick: New York Giants +2 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Larry Donnell @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Rueben Randle @ 2.62

Live NFL - Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks 9.25pm Sky Sports

This has the makings of a great game - the top defense in the NFL against a Dallas team that is growing in confidfence behind Tony Romo.

Seattle will need to stifle DeMarco Murray and while they clearly have the ability to do so, the Dallas O line has been excellent at clearing lanes for Murray. Romo may also be able to attack a Seahawks' defense that is banged up on the back end. Dez Bryant thrives in man to man coverage - look for a couple of big plays deep to him.

Seattle have their own beast to pound the rock of course, and Dallas have poor numbers against the run, and that is without the threat of Russell Wilson who went over 100 yards on the ground last week. Percy Harin had three TDs called back last week (of course he did, I'd backed him to score) but he can find room against this Dallas secondary.

I fully expect Seattle to win, but look for the back door cover.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys +8.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 6.0
Pick: Anytime TD Dez Bryant @ 2.25

NFL - Week 6 Teaser

Bengals (pk)
Packers (+4.5)
Broncos (-3)
Chargers (pk)
Seahawks (-2.5)
49ers (+4)

6.0

Live NFL - Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings 6pm Sky Sports

Losing Megatron pulls the teeth of the Lions and the return of Terry Bridgewater boosts the Vikings, but beware the Detroit defense; they will hound Bridgewater all day and are brutal against the run.

Not a game to get heavily involved in, but wars are won in the trenches. Enough metaphors?

Pick: Detroit Lions +2.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Eric Ebron @ 17
Pick: Anytime TD Detroit Lions D/ST @ 4.5

Live NFL - Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans 1.25am Sky Sports

The Colts are rolling and Luck has everything to do with it. Andrew Luck has got the offense purring, with a nice balance between the run game and the pass; his coaches have the right gameplan and it makes the Colts dangerous whenever the possess the ball.

J J Watt will do his best to upset the offense, but Dallas showed that he can be controlled and the absence of Clowney hurts the Texans' pass rush. Nonetheless, this will be a real test for Luck, with injuries along the Colts' O line.

The Texans go through Arian Foster as Ryan Fitzpatrick is highly unlikely to beat a team with his arm, even a Colts defense that is hardly rock solid. The problem is that Foster is not only injured, he admits he hates Thursday games. These vibes are troubling because Foster can go missing in games and it may not take much tonight.

Give the points.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Ahmad Bradshaw @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD TY Hilton @ 2.62

Live NFL - Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins 1.30am Eurosport

I had a VERY lumpy bet on Chicago (vintage Cutler) and liked the Teaser (Henery missed three field goals? Really?) so my last few quid rides onto this beauty.

Kirk Cousins fell apart under pressure last time out and with Seattle coming off a Bye, I expect them to be all over him. Washington will likely try to take the pressure off by running the ball all night, but Seattle are tough to run on. Cousins will need to throw and he tries to force the ball in in a jam; look for picks.

Betting the home dog against a team travelling West to East should be automatic, but frankly ...

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -7 @ 2.0

Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 6.0
Pick: Anytime TD Seahawks D/ST @ 4.0

Live NFL - Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots 1.30am Channel 4

Well, if I didn't have bad luck, I'd have no luck at all. Crazy.

Take the Bengals, the Patriots/Brady are stinking it up and Cincy are off a bye week.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -3 @ 2.0

Pick: 1st TD Giovani Bernard @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Rob Gronkowski @ 1.95

Live NFL - New York Jets at San Diego Chargers 9.25pm Sky Sports

The Chargers don't have much of a run game with injuries effectively shutting it down and in any case, it's difficult enough to run on the Jets.

Luckily for the Bolts, the Jets struggle mightily on the back end and Rivers is lighting it up under center. With Jets' injuries at Safety and Corner, I expect San Diego to throw all day and if the New York get behind and have to rely on the decidedly shaky Geno Smith, the Chargers should win comfortably.

Pick: San Diego -6 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Eddie Royal @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Keenan Allen @ 2.0

NFL - Week 5 Teaser

6.5pt at Pinny

Eagles (pk)
Saints (-3.5)
Cowboys (pk)
Lions (pk)
Chargers (pk)
Seahawks (-3)

@ 7.0

Live NFL - Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers 6pm Sky Sports

The Carolina corners struggled last week with Baltimore's receivers and now Marshall, Jeffrey and Bennett come into town? It's not like they have a tough run stopping defense either and Matt Forte may have a huge game.

On the other side of the ball things look only marginally better. The Panthers can't run the ball, but do have Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen over the top, but that in turn is contingent upon Cam Newton getting time to throw - the edges of the Panthers' O line collapsed all game last week and Jared Allen is back for the Bears.

This looks like a great position for the Bears, who are on a nice road streak, if only Cutler can be efficient - he doesn't need to do anything but run the offense and keep the ball out of the Panthers' hands. Hold on tight.

I like this bet.

Pick: Chicago Bears +2.5 @ 1.96

Pick: 1st TD Matt Forte @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Martellus Bennett @ 2.2; Alshon Jeffrey @ 2.38

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Vikings 1.25am Sky Sports

It's been a bumpy ride (I'll update the numbers on Sunday) but everyone's had a tough time in a crazy season, so we plough on.

I like the Pack here - they're strong at Lambeau, strong against Divisional opponents, Rodgers finally started rolling last week  and Minnesota come to town off a short week with Teddy Bridgewater limping.

Eddie Lacy needs to get going downhill (he's looked hesitant at times this season) and if the Packers get the run established they'll force the Vikings to pass against a decent pass rush and open up the field for guys like Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb.

I like Asiata close in and Jennings to score on his old team.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -7 @ 1.85

Pick: 1st TD Matt Asiata @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Greg Jennings @ 3

Live NFL - New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs 1.30am Eurosport

The Chiefs look anaemic on offense and are badly banged up on defense. Charles is carrying an injury and Knile Davis is struggling with ball security and in any case, the Pats are decent against the run - deeper, there's not a great deal going on.

The hope for the home team is the spluttering New England offense. The O line is creaking badly, and Brady has looked poor, with fewer options downfield.

Kansas is likely to pound the rock (if only to keep Brady off the field) and Belichick will be unlikely to let Brady loose.

I like the Under therefore and the road team look the bet ATS.

Pick: New England Patriots -3 @ 2.0
Pick: Under 47 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Julian Edelman @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Travis Kelce @ 3.6

Live NFL - New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys 1.30am Channel 4

Tough pick. I have the Saints as the better team, but they are seemingly unable to win on the road.

However, the Dallas defense still looks eminently beatable and they haven't faced an arm like Brees yet.

I'll trust my judgement.

Pick: New Orleans Saints -3 @ 2.05

Pick: 1st TD Brandin Cooks @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Pierre Thomas @ 2.5

NFL - Week 4 Teaser

Indianapolis Colts
Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
San Diego Chargers
Atlanta Falcons

6pt teaser @ 5.5

Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers 9.25pm Sky Sports

Some worrying stats for the home team:

Second half points Eagles 74 (1st), 49ers 3 (32nd)
Fourth quarter points: Eagles 40 (1st), 49ers 0 (32nd)

It's shit or bust for the 49ers, whereas the Eagles look a lock for the NFC East, so you would guess one team would put it all on the line whereas the other might subconsciously ease off. I'm not so sure.

I have to believe an offense as potent as Philadelphia's will keep it close enough to take advantage of a spread greater than a field goal.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Michael Crabtree @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Jeremy Maclin @ 2.4

Live NFL - Miami Dolphins vs Oakland Raiders 6pm Channel 4 (London)

A horrible game from a couple of poor teams promises a real treat for UK football fans. Personally, if the Ryder Cups goes long, I may be late to this one.

Miami are a bickering shambles with Tannehill throwing blindfold to guys who are under-performing and the Raiders are, well, the Raiders.

After a hissy fit this week I expect Cameron Wake to be given free rein to get after Derek Carr and Khalif Barnes will have Wake's footprints all over him at the end of the game, so moving the ball could be a struggle for the 'home' team.

If Tannehill lasts the whole game he'll count it a success and his best chance of doing that is feeding Lamar Miller the ball all day. Khalil Mack is a rare star in the Oakland firmament and as long as the fins can limit him, Miller should have a big game.

Miami have the edge.

Pick: Miami Dolphins -3 @ 1.8

Pick: 1st TD Lamar Miller @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Mike Wallace @ 2.1

 

Live NFL - New York Giants at Washington Redskins 1.25am Sky Sports

The key to this game is the Washington run defense; force Eli into long 3rd downs and the Giants are in trouble. Manning jr has looked better this season, but I always feel like he's one pick away from implosion. The Giants' O line have looked solid, but Washington can bring pressure.

Cousins put up big numbers last week and Captain Kirk has a chance to seal his position (RG3 is allegedly being shopped) in an offense that looks like it can put up numbers, especially against a New York defense that gives up big plays.

This could be a tough go in a tight Divisional matchup and a little interest in Under the total looks good.

Pick: Washington Redskins -3 @ 1.83
Pick: Under 45.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Pierre Garcon @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Larry Donnell @ 2.5

Live NFL - Chicago Bears at New York Jets 1,30am Eurosport

Well, it looks like I couldn't cap a bottle of pop at the moment; some tough breaks and some ... well, bad picks, I suppose. My only defense is that I tend not to get too involved in the first couple of weeks, but it's a pretty weak excuse!

I have a rule about MNF; if in doubt, take the dog. 

In this case it looks the bet in any case. I don't trust Geno Smith. It looks as though Decker is struggling and while they aren't tearing up trees (I hate the loss at CB) the Bears have been sound on defense.

Even nicked up, Chicago have a lot of offensive weapons. Of course, top of the 'blows hot and cold triggermen' list is Jay Cutler. Cutler will need to be on his game, because the Jets can bring it up front and will give Forte a tough time on the ground. Deeper, Marshall and Jeffrey are beasts and Martellus Bennett can produce against a less than convincing Jets secondary.

Pick: Chicago Bears +1.5 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Chris Ivory @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Marshall @ 2.1

Live NFL - Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers 1.30am Channel 4

The Panthers' most potent weapon is their defense, with a front seven that would trouble any offense ... with my form picking, sacrifice a chicken, pray to the Gods and give the points.

Pick: Carolina Panthers -3 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Greg Olsen @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Brown @ 2.25

Live NFL - Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks 9.25pm Sky Sports

You better believe this has been a game Denver and  Peyton Manning have been waiting for.

Julius Thomas will likely to give the Seahawks waking nightmares if he continually gets matched up on Kam Chancellor. Add in Demaryius Thomas, who was one of the few players to do well in last year's Super Bowl when he dominated Richard Sherman, and the returning Wes Welker, and Peyton isn't short of targets. 

The problem is keeping Manning clean in the pocket. Much has been made of the fact that Ryan Clady is back in at LT, but he hasn't always been solid and I expect Seattle to pressure Peyton.

Similarly, the addition of DeMarcus Ware is seen as a new problem for Russell Wilson, but Ware isn't the dynamic force he was and Wilson is adept at extending plays. Marshawn Lynch needs touches in this one and if they establish the run (and Denver have struggled a little in coverage) then Seattle will have too much.

This is a really tough call and everyone is staying away, but as I have to make a pick, I'll take the points.

Pick: Denver Broncos +4 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Julius Thomas @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Russell Wilson @ 7; Percy Harvin @ 2.5

NFL - Week 3 Teaser

New Orleans Saints
Cincinnati Bengals
New England Patriots
Philadelphia Eagles

6pt teaser @ 3.9

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions 6pm Sky Sports

Megatron - it's always a joy to watch the supreme athlete impose himself on the opposition, but here's the thing; Stafford spent a good deal of the game last week trying to force the ball to Calvin Johnson, with decidedly mixed results, and Green Bay have skill and depth on defense and have dealt with megatron with some success previously. That's not to say Johnson won't break a huge play, but unless Stafford is smarter, the Lions may struggle.

Detroit's running game may be the key. If it can establish itself early in what looks like a nice matchup (particularly with Mike Nelson carrying an injury) then the field will open up for Stafford/Johnson.

Aaron Rodgers has some potent weapons these days. Jordy Nelson is lighting it up, Randall Cobb appears to be Rodgers' go to receiver in the redzone. The run game has struggled this season and Lacy won't see a lot of room, but Rodgers can keep the chains moving with Randall over the top and Nelson a deep threat against a poor Lions' secondary.

This should be a good game and I fancy the Over as both teams can put up points quickly, but Detroit are prone to critical errors so I fancy the Packers to shade it.

Pick: Green Bay Packers +2 @ 2
Pick: Over 52 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Randall Cobb @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Jordy Nelson @ 2

Live NFL - Running Totals

ATS

  6-6 (-0.49)

O/U

  1-1 (-0.09)

1st TD

3-8 (+18.5)

Anytime TD

3-8 (+2.71)


Total 20.63


Teaser

0-2 (-2)

Live NFL - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons 1.25am Sky Sports

The Falcons can't stop the run and the Bucs' are banged up on defense and make average triggermen look good, so goodness only knows what Matt Ryan will do to them.

Doug Martin looks as though he'll be out, but Bobby Rainey looked good when he stepped up, so Tampa Bay can keep it close - the problem is that they will likely fall behind and have to throw and the old man Josh McCown has struggled for rhythm behind a poor O line.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons -6 @ 1.97

Pick: 1st TD Julio Jones @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Harry Douglas @ 3.5

Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts 1.30am Eurosport

If  Chad Henne can give you fits, then Andrew Luck and his receivers are the stuff of nightmares. Similarly, although it was Denver, the Colts struggled on defense last week and the Eagles have the talent to put up points; but Foles ain't Luck.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3 @ 2
Pick: Over 52.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Andrew Luck @ 17
Pick: Anytime TD T Y Hilton @ 2.2

Live NFL - Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers 1.30am Channel 4

The Bears look over-matched here, particularly defending the run, and with Boldin, Crabtree and Davis deep, it could be a long night for the Bears' defense.

Chicago have plenty on the other side of the ball, but with Marshall and Jeffrey carrying injuries and Morgan out, much will rest with Matt Forte and Jay Cutler to keep the ball moving. Last week, the 49ers struggled against the run and they too have people missing, but Cutler can't afford picks.

I make the 49ers at least one TD better.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -7 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Frank Gore @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Carlos Hyde @ 4.3; Matt Forte @ 2

Live NFL - Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos 9.25pm Sky Sports

Denver will win - they're superior in practically every department - but I'd never give 13 points in any football game.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +13 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Julius Thomas @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Denver D/ST @ 4.5

NFL - Week 2 Teaser

6 point teaser:

New Orleans Saints
Cincinnati Bengals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Seattle Seahawks
Green Bay Packers
Denver Broncos

(7.5)