Live NFL - New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs 1.30am Eurosport

The Chiefs look anaemic on offense and are badly banged up on defense. Charles is carrying an injury and Knile Davis is struggling with ball security and in any case, the Pats are decent against the run - deeper, there's not a great deal going on.

The hope for the home team is the spluttering New England offense. The O line is creaking badly, and Brady has looked poor, with fewer options downfield.

Kansas is likely to pound the rock (if only to keep Brady off the field) and Belichick will be unlikely to let Brady loose.

I like the Under therefore and the road team look the bet ATS.

Pick: New England Patriots -3 @ 2.0
Pick: Under 47 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Julian Edelman @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Travis Kelce @ 3.6

Live NFL - New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys 1.30am Channel 4

Tough pick. I have the Saints as the better team, but they are seemingly unable to win on the road.

However, the Dallas defense still looks eminently beatable and they haven't faced an arm like Brees yet.

I'll trust my judgement.

Pick: New Orleans Saints -3 @ 2.05

Pick: 1st TD Brandin Cooks @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Pierre Thomas @ 2.5

NFL - Week 4 Teaser

Indianapolis Colts
Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
San Diego Chargers
Atlanta Falcons

6pt teaser @ 5.5

Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers 9.25pm Sky Sports

Some worrying stats for the home team:

Second half points Eagles 74 (1st), 49ers 3 (32nd)
Fourth quarter points: Eagles 40 (1st), 49ers 0 (32nd)

It's shit or bust for the 49ers, whereas the Eagles look a lock for the NFC East, so you would guess one team would put it all on the line whereas the other might subconsciously ease off. I'm not so sure.

I have to believe an offense as potent as Philadelphia's will keep it close enough to take advantage of a spread greater than a field goal.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Michael Crabtree @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Jeremy Maclin @ 2.4

Live NFL - Miami Dolphins vs Oakland Raiders 6pm Channel 4 (London)

A horrible game from a couple of poor teams promises a real treat for UK football fans. Personally, if the Ryder Cups goes long, I may be late to this one.

Miami are a bickering shambles with Tannehill throwing blindfold to guys who are under-performing and the Raiders are, well, the Raiders.

After a hissy fit this week I expect Cameron Wake to be given free rein to get after Derek Carr and Khalif Barnes will have Wake's footprints all over him at the end of the game, so moving the ball could be a struggle for the 'home' team.

If Tannehill lasts the whole game he'll count it a success and his best chance of doing that is feeding Lamar Miller the ball all day. Khalil Mack is a rare star in the Oakland firmament and as long as the fins can limit him, Miller should have a big game.

Miami have the edge.

Pick: Miami Dolphins -3 @ 1.8

Pick: 1st TD Lamar Miller @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Mike Wallace @ 2.1

 

Live NFL - New York Giants at Washington Redskins 1.25am Sky Sports

The key to this game is the Washington run defense; force Eli into long 3rd downs and the Giants are in trouble. Manning jr has looked better this season, but I always feel like he's one pick away from implosion. The Giants' O line have looked solid, but Washington can bring pressure.

Cousins put up big numbers last week and Captain Kirk has a chance to seal his position (RG3 is allegedly being shopped) in an offense that looks like it can put up numbers, especially against a New York defense that gives up big plays.

This could be a tough go in a tight Divisional matchup and a little interest in Under the total looks good.

Pick: Washington Redskins -3 @ 1.83
Pick: Under 45.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Pierre Garcon @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Larry Donnell @ 2.5

Live NFL - Chicago Bears at New York Jets 1,30am Eurosport

Well, it looks like I couldn't cap a bottle of pop at the moment; some tough breaks and some ... well, bad picks, I suppose. My only defense is that I tend not to get too involved in the first couple of weeks, but it's a pretty weak excuse!

I have a rule about MNF; if in doubt, take the dog. 

In this case it looks the bet in any case. I don't trust Geno Smith. It looks as though Decker is struggling and while they aren't tearing up trees (I hate the loss at CB) the Bears have been sound on defense.

Even nicked up, Chicago have a lot of offensive weapons. Of course, top of the 'blows hot and cold triggermen' list is Jay Cutler. Cutler will need to be on his game, because the Jets can bring it up front and will give Forte a tough time on the ground. Deeper, Marshall and Jeffrey are beasts and Martellus Bennett can produce against a less than convincing Jets secondary.

Pick: Chicago Bears +1.5 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Chris Ivory @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Marshall @ 2.1

Live NFL - Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers 1.30am Channel 4

The Panthers' most potent weapon is their defense, with a front seven that would trouble any offense ... with my form picking, sacrifice a chicken, pray to the Gods and give the points.

Pick: Carolina Panthers -3 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Greg Olsen @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Brown @ 2.25

Live NFL - Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks 9.25pm Sky Sports

You better believe this has been a game Denver and  Peyton Manning have been waiting for.

Julius Thomas will likely to give the Seahawks waking nightmares if he continually gets matched up on Kam Chancellor. Add in Demaryius Thomas, who was one of the few players to do well in last year's Super Bowl when he dominated Richard Sherman, and the returning Wes Welker, and Peyton isn't short of targets. 

The problem is keeping Manning clean in the pocket. Much has been made of the fact that Ryan Clady is back in at LT, but he hasn't always been solid and I expect Seattle to pressure Peyton.

Similarly, the addition of DeMarcus Ware is seen as a new problem for Russell Wilson, but Ware isn't the dynamic force he was and Wilson is adept at extending plays. Marshawn Lynch needs touches in this one and if they establish the run (and Denver have struggled a little in coverage) then Seattle will have too much.

This is a really tough call and everyone is staying away, but as I have to make a pick, I'll take the points.

Pick: Denver Broncos +4 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Julius Thomas @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Russell Wilson @ 7; Percy Harvin @ 2.5

NFL - Week 3 Teaser

New Orleans Saints
Cincinnati Bengals
New England Patriots
Philadelphia Eagles

6pt teaser @ 3.9

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions 6pm Sky Sports

Megatron - it's always a joy to watch the supreme athlete impose himself on the opposition, but here's the thing; Stafford spent a good deal of the game last week trying to force the ball to Calvin Johnson, with decidedly mixed results, and Green Bay have skill and depth on defense and have dealt with megatron with some success previously. That's not to say Johnson won't break a huge play, but unless Stafford is smarter, the Lions may struggle.

Detroit's running game may be the key. If it can establish itself early in what looks like a nice matchup (particularly with Mike Nelson carrying an injury) then the field will open up for Stafford/Johnson.

Aaron Rodgers has some potent weapons these days. Jordy Nelson is lighting it up, Randall Cobb appears to be Rodgers' go to receiver in the redzone. The run game has struggled this season and Lacy won't see a lot of room, but Rodgers can keep the chains moving with Randall over the top and Nelson a deep threat against a poor Lions' secondary.

This should be a good game and I fancy the Over as both teams can put up points quickly, but Detroit are prone to critical errors so I fancy the Packers to shade it.

Pick: Green Bay Packers +2 @ 2
Pick: Over 52 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Randall Cobb @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Jordy Nelson @ 2

Live NFL - Running Totals

ATS

  6-6 (-0.49)

O/U

  1-1 (-0.09)

1st TD

3-8 (+18.5)

Anytime TD

3-8 (+2.71)


Total 20.63


Teaser

0-2 (-2)

Live NFL - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons 1.25am Sky Sports

The Falcons can't stop the run and the Bucs' are banged up on defense and make average triggermen look good, so goodness only knows what Matt Ryan will do to them.

Doug Martin looks as though he'll be out, but Bobby Rainey looked good when he stepped up, so Tampa Bay can keep it close - the problem is that they will likely fall behind and have to throw and the old man Josh McCown has struggled for rhythm behind a poor O line.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons -6 @ 1.97

Pick: 1st TD Julio Jones @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Harry Douglas @ 3.5

Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts 1.30am Eurosport

If  Chad Henne can give you fits, then Andrew Luck and his receivers are the stuff of nightmares. Similarly, although it was Denver, the Colts struggled on defense last week and the Eagles have the talent to put up points; but Foles ain't Luck.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3 @ 2
Pick: Over 52.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Andrew Luck @ 17
Pick: Anytime TD T Y Hilton @ 2.2

Live NFL - Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers 1.30am Channel 4

The Bears look over-matched here, particularly defending the run, and with Boldin, Crabtree and Davis deep, it could be a long night for the Bears' defense.

Chicago have plenty on the other side of the ball, but with Marshall and Jeffrey carrying injuries and Morgan out, much will rest with Matt Forte and Jay Cutler to keep the ball moving. Last week, the 49ers struggled against the run and they too have people missing, but Cutler can't afford picks.

I make the 49ers at least one TD better.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -7 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Frank Gore @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Carlos Hyde @ 4.3; Matt Forte @ 2

Live NFL - Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos 9.25pm Sky Sports

Denver will win - they're superior in practically every department - but I'd never give 13 points in any football game.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +13 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Julius Thomas @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Denver D/ST @ 4.5

NFL - Week 2 Teaser

6 point teaser:

New Orleans Saints
Cincinnati Bengals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Seattle Seahawks
Green Bay Packers
Denver Broncos

(7.5)

Live NFL - Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals 6pm Sky Sports

I'm really looking forward to this game - having put away the Saints, Atlanta can get rolling, with Matt Ryan looking imperious under centre, but the Bengals will be salty at home where they've been tough on defense.

Andy Dalton did well last week and if he's as efficient this week, the Bengals can win. A J Green is a beast downfield and I really like the space that Cincinnati creates for Giovanni Bernard catching out of the backfield. Atlanta find it difficult to bring pressure, and that bodes well for the home team.

The Falcons have plenty on the offensive side. Ryan looked aces last week, but the Bengals are a solid defensive unit. However, the loss of Vontaze Burfict is a blow for Cincinnati, who looked a different defense after losing him last week. Atlanta have a deep receiving corps and the Bengals' secondary doesn't look great. The only fly in the ointment for the road team is the loss of Jake Matthews, but if Ryan stays upright, he should see opportunities downfield.

I'll take the points.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons +6 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Julio Jones @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Roddy White @ 2.5

Live NFL - Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens 1.25am Sky Sports

Capping the Ravens; my least favourite job with my least favourite team.

It's difficult to know how the Ray Rice issue will play here, but as it stands, I like the Steelers. 

Baltimore's pass rush was poor last week and Big Ben has a decent balance on offense. I expect the Ravens to have sharpened up for this one - and the right side of the Pittsburgh O line collapsed last time out, so it won't be a walk in the park, but Roethlisberger is tough enough to stay upright and find Antonio Brown and his supporting cast deep against a patchy secondary.

Ben has Le'Veon Bell in the backfield and he's looking good (running and catching) and I'm not convinced by the interior of the Baltimore defensive line. The Ravens played off coverage all day in the last game and that'll let Pittsburgh move the ball up the field if they try it tonight.

Pittsburgh's pass rush didn't exactly light it up last week too, but the Ravens' offense is a work in progress and Flacco can be horrible under pressure - it's not like he has a strong backfield to relieve the pressure. I expect Flacco to have a rough night.

I'll buy the key number.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 @ 1.8

Pick: 1st TD Le'Veon Bell @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Brown @ 2.2

Live NFL - Week 1 Results

ATS

4-2 (+1.73)

O/U

0-1 (-1)

1st TD

2-4 (+16)

Anytime TD

2-4 (+0.16)

Teaser

0-1 (-1)

Total 15.89

Live NFL - San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals 3.20am Eurosport

I doubt anyone will be awake, but you can take the Bolts for a few quid to cheer up breakfast.

Shop around for the field goal.

Pick: San Diego Chargers +3 @ 1.87

Pick: 1st TD Michael Floyd @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Andre Ellington @ 2.38

Live NFL - New York Giants at Detroit Lions 12am Eurosport

Detroit are Clarence the cross-eyed lion (ask your parents) with lots of power and threat everywhere, but seemingly flawed; their ball security is poor and they allow the opposition to bust out big plays every so often and that in turn often precipitates disaster.

However, Megatron is helped (like he needed it) by some nice additions and a new coaching staff may sort out the Lions' flaws (comedy genius) because if they don't, it'll be another 'meh' season in the motor city. The Giants aren't going to bring much pressure, so Stafford should have time and there's a lot downfield.

New York has a new OC and Eli will need to settle into McAdoo's system - this game may be too early. I don't like 'em.

Pick: Detroit Lions -4.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Eric Ebron @ 23
Pick: Anytime TD Rashad Jennings @ 2.25

Live NFL - Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos 1.30am Channel 4

Manning vs Luck ... this should be a belter.

It's never easy to play in Denver, but it's further complicated for the road team with the loss of their premier pass rusher against an offense like the Broncos'. Welker is missing (more idiocy) but Peyton Manning still looks downfield at Julius Thomas, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. I like the positional changes along the Broncos' O line and their acquisitions on defense.

Andrew Luck has proved an outstanding replacement for the man he faces tonight, and he has some talented receivers to throw to; Reggie Wayne is back, as is Dwayne Allen, and Hakeem Nicks has been added to T Y Hilton. Trent Richardson will get touches, but I've a feeling Luck will have to take on and beat Denver with his arm - the big problem there is that he will be under the pump all night behind a poor O line with DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller bringing enormous pressure.

I'll give the Colts 7.5.

Pick: Denver Broncos - 7.5

Pick: 1st TD Julius Thomas @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD T Y Hilton @ 3

Live NFL - San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys 9.25pm Sky Sports

Dallas look a mess. There's no pass rush left, Claiborne and Carr look like a bust and the rest of the defense looks soft, especially missing Sean Lee. On offense, Dez Bryant should get a lot of looks as Romo throws to keep up, and DeMarco Murray can find some room tonight, as will Jason Witten, matching up on a depleted LB corps.

The visitors are coming to town with problems of their own; injuries, idiocy and arrest mean that their pass rush is hobbled and the defense potentially porous. The right side of the O line doesn't look too clever and Kaepernick can lose concentration. At least their QB doesn't have a bad back and Frank Gore will get rolling - I suspect Vernon Davis will score in what should be a points-fest.

The 49ers will have too much.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -3.5 @ 2.0
Pick: Over 50.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Jason Witten @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Vernon Davis @ 1.91; Michael Crabtree @ 2.1

NFL - Week 1 Teaser

7 point teaser:

Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
NYJ
Chicago
Denver
Detroit

(Approx. 5.50)

Live NFL - New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins 6pm Sky Sports

An interesting game. Tannehill has been given a great coach, a better system and a beefed up O line (the poor guy spent more time climbing off the turf than anyone else last year) and I expect Miami to have more joy on offense. 

The problem is, I don't like them on defense; they look shaky at the corners and their linebackers are poor. That wouldn't necessarily be fatal, but Brady rolls into town with a lot more healthy options downfield and a run game that looks robust too. I doubt the Gronk will go (am I really second guessing Bill lol?) and Ridley will doubtless fumble, but Vereen will trouble the fins catching out of the backfield and Brady will take his shots.

If Miami establish the run and maintain the tempo on offense, it might be close, but Mr Revis will have something to say about Tannehill's choices deep.

I'll give the points again.

Pick: New England Patriots -4.5 @ 2.0

Pick: 1st TD Julian Edelman @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Mike Wallace @ 3.0

Live NFL - Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks 1.30am Sky Sports

We're back. Apologies for the baseball hiatus - life got in the way - but I hope you'll enjoy my ramblings for this season's football.

Night games in Seattle rank among the tougher assignments in football, and while Green Bay are a team worth monitoring this season, this is an unfortunate opener.

Rodgers struggles in CenturyLink like all QBs and sacks were a real problem in the Fail Mary game, but the Pack's O line looks much improved. The Seahawks are without Red Bryant and Chris Clemons and despite the visitor’s worries at center, it will be more difficult to get to Rodgers this time around. Seattle will still have Bruce Irvin and Michael Bennett coming off the edges, but I expect Green Bay to move the ball. Eddie Lacy will be a key in that respect, and he’ll doubtless see catches as well as running, but I like the Seahawk’s LBs and they can contain him.

Russell Wilson will extend plays as ever, and Lynch will be a refreshed beast mode runner and while I like the addition of Clinton-Dix, the Pack are susceptible to the big play which can exacerbate their tendency to lose discipline and Percy Harvin is due.

It should be a great game. I’ll give the points.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -5.5 @ 1.91

Pick: First TD Marshawn Lynch @ 7.5

Pick: Anytime TD Jordy Nelson @ 2.62