Live MLB - Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels ESPN 9pm

Two qualifying streaks going in opposite directions, one hurler with much better numbers and the Chisox are hitting righties at .306, while the halos are hitting just .160 against lefties.

Pick: Chicago White Sox -1.5 @ 2.55
29-32 (-1.84)

Live MLB - New York Mets at Chicago Cubs ESPN 7.20pm

Matt Harvey has been tearing it up; Edwin Jackson has not, and he sports an ERA of 9.0 at Wrigley.

Harvey's only worry should be run support (the Mets are hitting .178 L5 against righties) but hopefully Jackson's .210 WHIP at home will put enough runners on and the slumping bats showed some life last time out..

Pick: New York Mets -1.5 @ 2.3
  29-31 (-0.84)

Live MLB - Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays ESPN 12am

Apologies for the absence - at least it's probably saved you a couple of quid!

I like the Overs here. Felix Doubront has been knocked about recently (1.71/5.63 WHIP/ERA L3) and Alex Cobb hasn't fared any better, giving up too many home runs (1.53/5.29)

The Trop is good for just over 9 runs a game.

Pick: Over 8 @ 2.0
 29-30 (+0.16)

Live MLB - San Diego Padres at Baltimore Orioles ESPN 5.30pm

Jason Marquis is 3-0 with a 2.18 ERA L3, and although he has been hammered by the O's in the past, it was a long time ago.

Freddie Garcia has kept his head above water, but he's prone to the long ball. Thankfully, the Padres are swinging a matchstick at the plate, hitting .184 L5 (.206 vs righties) so even if someone does go yard, hopefully no-one will be on.

Last line up at 9 I took on was smashed inside two innings, but I'll go again.

Pick: Under 9 @ 2.05
29-29 (+1.16)

Live MLB - Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates ESPN 12am

I like the Brewers here, in what promises to be a close game.

Lohse has been unfortunate this season, with a lack of offense skewing his win/loss line, but he is 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA over his last five starts against Pittsburgh: 9-2, 3.42 ERA lifetime.

Jeff Locke has pitched well so far, but is serving up too many base on balls to continue to get away with it. The Brewers are hitting lefties at a .290 clip L5 and with The Hebrew Hammer looking like he'll be back in the lineup, I'll take the favourite.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers @ 1.83
 29-28 (+2.16)

Live MLB - New York Mets at St Louis Cardinals ESPN 12am

Well, that totals' bet just missed!

This one appears more straightforward - there is a streak playing against the Mets, Lynn has been devastating at home and Hefner has struggled on the road.

Although both teams are having problems on offense, I'll give the runs.

Pick: St Louis Cardinals -1.5 @ 2.1
 28-28 (+1.06)

Live MLB - Tor/Bos: Atl/SF: LAA/CWS ESPN 6pm - 1am

Very disappointing last night. Texas and Darvish were home and hosed; then the Rangers' bullpen gives up 4 in two innings, including 3 in the bottom of the ninth! Ouch.

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox 6.30pm

The weather's poor, the Red Sox aren't hitting and Dempster dominated the Jays just ten days ago, four hitting them.

Chad Jenkins has done OK, since coming up, but if the weather were better and the home team were hitting (.246 L5) I'd fight shy of the total; as it is, I'll go Under.

Pick: Under 9 @ 2.1

Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants 9pm

Neither pitcher has a particularly sparkling record against this afternoon's respective opponents, but the home team are swinging a hot bat (.288 L5) whereas the Braves have cooled somewhat at the plate.

The home dog look the value.

Pick: San Francisco Giants @ 2.01

Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox 1am

The Angels have dominated the White Sox of late and go for the sweep here. Sale has nice numbers against the Halos, and has pitched well L3 and been strong at home, so Chicago will be a challenge.

Wilson is putting way too many batters on, always fatal, but has a decent line against the Chisox (3-1, 2.86 ERA) and with a bit of a roll on, the road team look the value.

Pick: Los Angeles Angels @ 2.2
 27-26 (+1.96)

Live MLB - Texas Rangers at Houston Astros ESPN 12am

A difficult game to pick. Darvish is a beast and Houston are unlikely to score any runs, but the price, even on the runline, is too short. There was a time when I liked to bet any team longer than 3.0, but frankly even that looks short here.

The Rangers are hitting lefties at .271 on the season (.254 L5) and Houston are hitting an anaemic .175 L5 against righties ... before Darvish rode into town.

I'd look at the total, but Bedard has been marginally better at home and there's always the chance Texas will just start swinging for the fences and Overs would be the bet.

Instead, I'm going to take a handicap bet and give 3 runs, to try and wring a little value out of a tough game.

Pick: Texas Rangers -3 @ 2.4
 27-25 (+2.96)

Live MLB - Oak/Cle: NYY/Col ESPN 5pm - 8pm

Well, yesterday went downhill.

I liked the first, felt unlucky with the second and the third pick was blown out the water after 1.2 innings! I had that idiot in one of my fantasy teams too, so ultimately it was a rough night all around.

Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Indians 5pm

Colon looks the pitcher most likely here, but Kazmir has shown some form and with streaks playing in opposite directions, I'll take the surging home dog.

Pick: Cleveland Indians @ 2.13

New York Yankees at Colorado Rockies 8pm

CC Sabathia has been lights out in interleague play and although he hasn't enjoyed Coors Field in the past, it was some time ago and Jeff Francis is liable to give up runs in bunches.

I'll take the short price on the Bombers.

Pick: New York Yankees @ 1.8
 25-25 (+1.03)

Live MLB - Sea/Pit: Phi/SF: Min/Bos ESPN 5.30pm - 12am

NEVER, EVER BET ACCAS IN BASEBALL!
It's difficult enough picking one game, without trying to pick several.
 
Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates 5.30pm
Hernandez and Burnett are both pitching beautifully and the offenses are stuttering. Unders is the call, but the price is mighty skinny.
 
Pick: Under 6.5 @ 1.83

Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants 8.45pm
This is a pick where the price is the dominant factor. The Phillies are going for the sweep and Jonathan Pettibone has pitched well since coming up; the Giants have also never seen him. 

Barry Zito is a home pitcher this season, but Philadelphia have reached him before.
The price for the Giants is too short, making the Phillies the value.
 
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies @ 2.4
 
Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox 12am
Pedro Hernandez got roughed up last time he pitched in Boston, to the tune of eight earned runs; he's been poor on the road this season and looks vulnerable here. However, the two players who put him to the sword have now left the Bosox and Boston are hitting lefties at just .188 L5
 
I like the look of Allen Webster, one of Boston's top pitching prospects, and the Twins are hitting .228 L5, so I'll take on a line that everyone expects to be beaten.

Pick: Under 9 @ 2.0
(Treble @ 8.78!) 

  24-23 (+2.2)

Live MLB - Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds ESPN 12am

The maxim that 'a pitcher is only as good as his last start', is worth paying attention to, and where his last three starts have looked poor, it's difficult to have much faith.

Kris Medlen has a 1.36/5.40 WHIP/ERA line L3. Homer Bailey has posted a rather better 1.36/3.44, but that's still putting too many runners on.

Hills are going Evens Over 7.5 and with those pitcher numbers in the Great American Ball Park, it's a value bet.

Lazaro Diaz is a marginal Overs umpire behind home and the weather seems sets fair.

Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.0
 23-23 (+1.2)

Live MLB - Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds ESPN 12am

The Braves started at a gallop, but have slowed considerably. One of the victims of the slump has been Paul Maholm, who has had one run of support in his last three outings. I like his stuff and with McCann coming back, the team should get a lift.
 
Arroyo is no mug, and the Reds have a qualifying win streak in their favour and an excellent record against Atlanta in the Great American Ball Park, but I like the road team to find a little form tonight.
 
Pick: Atlanta Braves @ 2.0
22-23 (0.2)

Live MLB - Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels ESPN 9pm

I like the big, beautiful Birds here.

Picking your own team is invariably a disaster, but Garcia, despite his patchy time has a good record against the Angels (17-3, 2.63 ERA:  8-1 with a 3.18 ERA in 16 games at Angel Stadium) and has shown some form before coming up.

Tommy Hanson has a decent line against Baltimore too (1-0, 1.64 ERA) however the sample size is small and the O's are hitting righties at a .290 clip L5 (compared to the Angels at .231)

The road team are the value.

Pick: Baltimore Orioles @ 2.3
 21-23 (-1.1)

Live MLB - Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays ESPN 12am

Seattle are hitting .282 L5 and face a pitcher coming in from the wilderness tonight. Romero has found a home and a place in the rotation in spite of himself and thanks to an injury; if 'King Felix' pitches anything like (and he has had his struggles against the Blue Jays) the road team look like the value on the runline.

Pick: Seattle -1.5 @ 2.3
 20-23 (-2.4)

Live MLB - Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs ESPN 7pm

It's a pick 'em on the moneyline, but with both these pitchers putting up decent numbers L3 and the weather poor with the wind in from centre at Wrigley, I'll go Under.

Pick: Under 7 @ 1.91
20-22 (-1.4)

Live MLB - Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals ESPN 7pm

These two teams are hitting the ball hard L5 and Hernandez looks vulnerable. Although Santana has been strong L3, his numbers suggest he could give up enough to just about land the Overs.
 
Kansas should take this, they're too short on the moneyline and the runline has killed me this season, so although I'm tempted, I'm not taking the home team.

Pick: Over 7.5 @ 1.95
 20-22 (-1.4)

Live MLB - Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves ESPN 12am

I like Washington and the Unders here.

The Nats are on a three game skid and are hitting just .213 L5. The Braves aren't exactly hitting the cover off it either, hitting .230 L5.

Jordan Zimmerman has been particularly strong L3 and while Malholm has the stuff, he got clattered by the Tigers, lasting only 3.2 innings last time out (and he took the loss in the game before against the Pirates) and I think Washington look a value dog.

Pick: Washington Nationals @ 2.25
Pick: Under 7 @ 1.87
18-22 (-3.52)

Live MLB - Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers ESPN 6pm

My bookie is sending me postcards from the Caribbean where he now lives off the proceeds of these rotten tips!

The Brewers own the Pirates at Miller Park and it's difficult to see that changing with the less than inspiring Jeanmar Gomez coming out of the bullpen to replace Sanchez. Gomez has an ERA north of 5 in the majors.

Hiram Burgos looks ok so far in his debut season and should have enough here. I fancy Milwaukee to continue hitting Pittsburgh hard as they try to sweep the Pirates this afternoon, and with neither bullpen pitching well, there should be runs.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 @ 2.5
Pick: Over 9.5 @ 2
 17-21 (-3.52)