Live NFL - Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints 1.40am ESPN

The Fins have had a spectacular start, and Ryan Tannehill has had much to do with that, making the most of a receiving corps that doesn't look like a dangerous group. Tonight will be Tannehill's biggest test, with a decent Saints rush and a secondary that is combining to rank the home defense second against the pass.

It will be interesting to see how Miami attack New Orleans, particularly if they fall behind. There have been problems along the offensive line for the Dolphins, so that may make keeping pace difficult. Look for Charles Clay as an outlet for a pressured Tannehill.

The Saints are clearly happier with Payton on the sideline and Drew Brees is putting up big numbers. Jimmy Graham is magnificent, and he and Colston are the receivers of choice. The ground game is poor, but Miami were run on last week and with Soliai nicked up, they may be vulnerable again. If the Saints' run game gets going, it will be a tough night for the Dolphins.

I'll give a touchdown at home.

Pick: New Orleans Saints -7 @ 1.97
Pick: Over 48 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Marques Colston @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Charles Clay @ 3.5

Live NFL - New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons 1.30am Ch4

Night owl pick:

Although New England are rehashing and making do, there are significant signs of life: Belichick seems to find a way. The Gronk doesn't look as though he'll go, but Julian Edelman, Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson are making plays. The Pats have to control the Falcon run game however, in order to force Ryan to go against the excellent New England secondary.

It's a tough ask going into the Georgia Dome, but Atlanta have some key injuries too and I have a feeling the visitors will adapt better.

Pick: New England Patriots +3 @ 1.83

Pick: 1st TD Jason Snelling @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Julian Edelman @ 2.25

Live NFL - Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers 9.25pm Sky Sports

I don't believe the Chargers' offensive line can spare guys like Clary, Rinehart and Dunlap, especially against a Dallas D that will see the DeMarcus Ware led pass rush bear down on Philip Rivers. Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews aren't going to carve anyone up, so its looks bleak for the Bolts.

The Cowboys aren't tearing it up on the offensive side either. With Miles Austin sidelined, options are limited, but Romo will surely attack a pass defense that ranks 32nd. Romo has been afforded a little more protection this year and I like Dez Bryant and Jason Witten to have big games.

I like this pick.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -1 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Jason Witten @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Dez Bryant @ 2.1; Dallas D/ST @ 4.0

Week 4 NFL Teaser

Colts
Chiefs
Broncos
Titans
Ravens
Bengals
Redskins

Pays 10.0

(0-2, -2)

Live NFL - Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings 6pm Ch4

What a treat from the colonies!

Pittsburgh's struggles on offense stem largely from their inability to get any run game going which, in fairness, is a result of a suspect O line. However, if ever the Steelers wanted a 'get better' defense, the Vikings provide one.

The return of LeVeon Bell will be interesting against the 21st ranked run D and much is expected of him. If he does make any progress, Roethlisberger should make hay against the even worse, 28th ranked Minnesota pass defense, although Big Ben needs to stop turning the ball over.

The Steelers have been ok on defense and have shut down Adrian Peterson before. AP hasn't thrived this year, bar the occasional flash of brilliance, because the Vikings ... well ... stink. Matt Cassell looks as though he will start under centre which may help Peterson - because Ponder was so awful, opposition teams just stacked the box knowing that there was no downfield threat.

The Steelers look as though they have enough here to cover. Roethlisberger will get knocked about, but will get it done with his arm, while the Vikings will struggle to establish any momentum.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 @ 2.0
(10-7, +2.49)

Pick: 1st TD Antonio Brown @ 10
(4-13, +32)

Pick: Anytime TD LeVeon Bell @ 2.88; Antonio Brown @ 2.5
(7-13, -2.22)

Totals (4-3, +0.68)

Live MLB - Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves 12.10am BT Sports

The runline bets are coming thick and fast. Ethan Martin has struggled, and it's unlikely that he's going to shut down even the light hitting Braves.

Mike Minor has the stuff, but has been less good of late, losing his last four and posting 1.37/4.74 L3.

The odds on the runline are a little skinny for me, so I'm going to go Over. It's always a brave (geddit?) call at Turner Field, a solid Unders park, but either of these pitchers could get hit hard.

Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.1

85-86 (+6.34)

Live MLB - Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds 12am BT

Four runs in the bottom of the ninth for the hook, again, really? 

That was a hard luck loss last night and means I'm likely to be heading into the post-season single figures ahead, which is a little disappointing. My regular bets are a down this year too  - it's Pot Noodles and re-formed chicken steaks for the children.

The value in this matchup rests with Burnett's last performance, when he beat today's opposition, and pitcher, last Saturday. He was outstanding, throwing 12k, four hit ball.

The Bucs are still in the NL Central title race, just, so I'll take them as a dog.

Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates @ 2.1

 84-86 (+5.24)

Live NFL - San Francisco 49ers at St Louis Rams 1.25am Sky Sports

Who resurrects their season?

The 49ers' line is getting beaten up on both sides of the ball, which is bewildering when you see the personnel in both units. The Aldon Smith fiasco hasn't helped, and Frank Gore is bitching about getting the ball.

Colin Kaepernick has looked shaky in the pocket and indecisive under centre and it is the clash between the Rams' pass rush and the San Francisco offensive line that will decide tonight's game. The left side of the line has been collapsing and that has exposed Kaepernick, who has reacted badly.

The 49ers need to hand it off to Gore after DeMarco Murray took the Rams for 201 yards from scrimmage last week and then attack that secondary. Vernon Davis needs to go too, as the St. Louis linebackers and safeties struggle in coverage and the receiving corps seems to key off Davis.

(Note that, if Davis doesn't play, this game is best left - San Francisco's passing attack is just too unreliable without him.)

The Rams have similar problems; Bradford looked poor last week and he got sacked too often. Clearly, the absence of Aldon Smith is going to help in this regard, and Joe Barksdale and Jake Long must be thanking they're lucky stars after getting badly exposed last week.

Again, the Rams' best chance may be to pound the rock (Richardson says he's fit) against a 49ers D line ranking 28th against the run. Deeper, San Francisco have been solid, and although St Louis have a capable set of receivers matching up on a nicked up secondary, the ground game looks crucial to moving the chains.

I don't like the 'have to win' bet, but the 49ers must know that they really have to show up tonight against a team that has troubled them in the past, so I'll take Gore to have a good night, more read option, and some hard hitting on defense by the road team. 

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -3 @ 1.91
(9-7, +1.58)

Totals

(4-3, +0.68)

Pick: 1st TD Frank Gore @ 9.0
(4-12, +33)

Pick: Anytime TD Vernon Davis @ 2.5; Chris Givens @ 3.0 
(6-12, -2.27)

Live MLB - Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins 1.10am BT Sports

This looks a lot like last night's pick; Cleveland are rolling on a six game win streak, with a view of the promised land of a wildcard berth, whereas the Twins are done.

Zach McAllister is looking to win his third consecutive start, after posting a 1.54 ERA in his last two, and contrasts Andrew Albers' 0-3, 1.34/4.02 L3.

Pick: Cleveland Indians -1.5 @ 2.0 

84-85 (+6.24)

Live MLB - Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees 12am ESPN

"You cannot be more effectively wild than he was tonight," Rays manager Joe Maddon said.

Moore (16-4) gave up only three hits but threw three wild pitches to up his AL-leading total to 16 and walked six.

And I got the hook.

Tampa Bay are rolling and the Yankees are 'do or die' if they want to sniff the post-season. The problem is, the bombers send Phil Hughes to the mound tonight and he's liable get hammered by a relaxed, confident Rays. David Price hasn't exactly been at it recently, but this looks like a runline dig.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 @ 2.0

83-85 (+5.24)

Live MLB - Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees 12am ESPN

Both of these pitchers have hit a couple of bumps in the road down the stretch: Hiroki Kuroda is 0-5 with a 6.37 ERA over his last seven starts, and Matt Moore got hit hard by Texas last time out.

I'll go Over.

Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.1 

83-84 (+6.24)

Live NFL - Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos 1.40am Eurosport

Denver will likely jump out into a lead early, given their juggernaut offense (all the usual subjects should figure) but I really hate laying double digits, even to the SB champs in waiting.

It's not like the Raider defense is useless, with Charles Woodson, Tracy Porter and Mike Jenkins back there, and Ryan Clady missing at left tackle for Denver. Terrelle Pryor looks as though he may have suddenly realised where he is, but he has talent and Von Miller is still out and Champ Bailey is banged up at best.

So, my ideal scenario? Denver take a lead and adopt a soft defense as they have in the first two games, giving up yards and points in garbage time to allow Oakland to cover late in the game ... or the Raiders stay close enough to cover. 

Of course, the Broncos might just blow the visitors' doors off, but that's just rude.

Pick: Oakland Raiders +14.5 @ 1.95 (9-6, +2.58)
Pick: Over 48.5 @ 1.95 (3-3. -0.27)

Pick: 1st TD Eric Decker @ 15 (3-12, +19)
Pick: Anytime TD Julius Thomas @ 2.25; Knowshon Moreno @ 2.1 (5-11, -2.52)

Live MLB - Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays 8.10pm ESPN

It looks like my brave, beautiful birds are done.

With two qualifying streaks playing against them and Archer on the hill for the Rays, the price looks value on the home team.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ 1.8

Live NFL - Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers 1.30am Ch4

Night owl pick.

Pittsburgh are struggling on both sides of the ball as they rebuild and cope with injury and lost personnel.

If Chicago can impose themselves, Marc Trestman's new offense can put up points with Forte on the ground (and catching) Marshall downfield and Bennett settling in: especially with the O line performing way above the last few seasons.

I'll give the points.

Pick: Chicago Bears -2 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Matt Forte @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Heath Miller @ 3.75

Live NFL - Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers 9.25pm Sky Sports

Seattle showed that you can throttle Kaepernick and the 49ers by bringing pressure up front, but the Colts just don't have that physicality and I expect Kaepernick to return to form. That should open things up for the run game (even though San Francisco have struggled to establish that aspect of their offense) and keep Indianapolis off-balance, especially with the injuries the Colts are carrying on D.

The Trent Richardson acquisition has set hearts a-fluttering in Indy, and he'll doubtless get the rock tonight, but the 49ers, even after Lynch's performance last week, remain an awkward to team to run on and he only arrived on Wednesday.

Luck looked a little off his game last week and is behind a mediocre offensive line and they lost guard Donald Thomas during the week. The 49ers can be beaten deep, but Luck will need room to operate and it's likely to be in short supply.

I don't like to lay double digits in football, but I think with the matchups and a coach like Harbaugh (he'll look foward to showing his former college QB who's the boss) coming off a loss, San Francisco are clear favourites.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -10 @ 2.0

Pick: 1st TD Frank Gore @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Colin Kaepernick @ 2.4

Live MLB - Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates 6.30pm ESPN

You break one of the cardinal rules of baseball wagering, you get burned. A stupid call at Wrigley. Apologies.

This is a cracker at the business end of the season, and I'm setting up several screens so I won't miss this and the Orioles' game alongside the football: it's like Elvis in the jungle room up in here!

Locke is 1-4 with a 5. 90 ERA in 10 outings since a 3-2 win in Cincinnati on July 21st, but has a 1.19 ERA in four career starts against the Reds and is 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA in three matchups this season.

Arroyo has put together some nice numbers of late, so I'm going Under.

Dan Iassogna is 9-20 behind home this season.

Pick: Under 7 @ 1.95

82-83 (+6.44)

Week 3 NFL Teaser

Green Bay +3.5
Det/Was Over 42.5
Minnesota -0.5
New York Giants +5
Dallas +2.5
New England -1
San Francisco -3.5

Pays 10.0

Live NFL - Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins 6pm Sky Sports

I can't see past Detroit in this one. 

Washington's defense is horrible and looks incapable of a stop. Taking on megatron is a challenge at the best of times, but when you're giving up that type of yardage, it's fatal.

RGIII has gone from saviour to goat, with some people calling for him to be benched; what is clear, is that he is limited/rusty/lacking in confidence through the first two games. The read option has been used sparingly and he will be challenged by a ferocious Detroit front four today (what price Suh having a go at that knee?) and if Griffin doesn't up his game, it could be a long afternoon.

Garcon is the real deal and there's a decent run game in there to change things up, but much of the statistical evidence is distorted by the amount of garbage time Washington have played. If Morris can get to the edge, he can do some damage, but the Lions' D line is a tough go.

Detroit go through Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush and it looks as though the latter may miss this game. Joique Bell will likely play instead, but unfortunately for the hosts, he's a capable replacement and can take advantage of a Washington run defense ranking 29th.

A lot is being made of the 'must-win' position for Washington and Detroit's record in the nation's capital, but I'll take the Lions straight up.

A much more attractive proposition here is the Overs, in what may be the familiar Washington shoot-out.

Pick: Detroit Lions @ 1.95 (7-5, +1.68)
Pick: Over 48.5 @ 1.91 (3-2, +0.73)

Pick: 1st TD Robert Griffin III @ 15 (2-10, +14)
Pick: Anytime TD Pierre Garcon @ 2.2; Joique Bell @ 2.5 (4-8, -2.02)

Live MLB - Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs 7.20pm ESPN

The wind looks as though it'll be blowing out at Wrigley, which is usually an automatic Overs bet.

However, Paul Maholm has decent numbers L3 and has a good record in Chicago.

Scott Baker has been rock solid since coming off the DL, posting a 0.55/0.82 WHIP/ERA in those two games.

Both of these teams are struggling on offense: the Cubs are hitting lefties at .115 L5 and the Braves are hitting righties at a .190 clip.

I'm taking a deep breath and going Under.

Pick: Under 9 @ 1.91

82-82 (+7.44)

Live NFL - Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles 1.30am Sky Sports

The Eagles' offense is rolling, putting up big numbers in most offensive categories, but the other side of the ball is a problem. 

Philip Rivers tore into the Philadelphia defense, throwing confidently into the windswept, empty acres downfield. Andy Reid (returning to his old stamping ground) will use the excellent Jamaal Charles in a familiar way in the West Coast offense; catching out of the backfield with a mixture of screens and check downs for Alex Smith - Charles was actually targeted more than Dwayne Bowe last week. Smith has managed the game and protected the ball well so far and it's unlikely that tonight's defensive effort by the Eagles will trouble him too much.

The problem for the Chiefs is that Alex Smith is not a vertical threat and games against Philadelphia, with Chip Kelly's extraordinary offense, are liable to descend into shoot-outs and so Kansas will need to show some extra dimension on offense to exploit the middle of the field and Philadelphia's awful secondary. Bowe, Avery and McCluster are a decent set of receivers, but Smith limits them.

Michael Vick is looking like new man, playing with more discipline and throwing nicely from the pocket. LeSean McCoy is playing well and the solid Kansas defense had problems against the Cowboys receivers (specifically Dez Bryant) so I expect Vick to take a couple of deep shots to DeSean Jackson. That Chiefs' defense though can threaten Vick, with Lane Johnson still settling in on the line. Andy Reid understands his opponents enough to bring pressure in the right places.

This may be tight, but I expect the road team's defense to finally slow down the Eagles' O. I'll take the points.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +3 @ 2.05 (6-5, +0.63)

Pick: 1st TD Dwayne Bowe @ 10 (2-9, +15)
Pick: Anytime TD Michael Vick @ 2.4 (4-7, -1.02)

(Totals 3-2, +0.73)

Live MLB - Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays 12am ESPN

After halting the skid last night (and making me look a fool) the Rangers send Derek Holland to the mound tonight. Holland has horrible numbers L3 (2.18/10.12 WHIP/ERA) but he has been better on the road and his last three outings against the Rays have been quality starts.

Chris Archer may be tiring down the stretch, as he has posted 1.32/4.61 L3, but is 1.09/3.03 on the season. Archer is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his last three home starts and gave up two runs while striking out 11 in seven innings in a losing cause at home to Texas in his only meeting with them.

I'll give the home team the edge at the price.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ 1.85

Live MLB - Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics 8.30pm ESPN

Vargas is a bust; he got shellacked last time out and, although the price attracts, he's difficult to back.

Dan Straily has put in some decent performances at the back end of the A's rotation, but puts too many on for my taste and that can be dangerous against a hard-hitting team.

The Coliseum is usually an Unders call, but with these two on the hill, I'll have a punt.

Pick: Over 8 @ 1.91

Live MLB - Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays 12am ESPN

Hellickson has good enough stuff to continue to ride the Rangers' seven game skid.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ 2.15

80-81 (+6.68)

Live NFL Week 2 MNF - Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals 1.20am Eurosport

The Bengals favourites against the Steelers?

Who'd a thunk it?

The Steelers were horrible on offense last week (and that's being generous) then they lost Pouncey for the season and Larry Foote and LaRod Stephens-Howling are also out.

There's no run game and very little pass protection for Roethlisberger, so it looks pretty bleak against a Bengals defense that has real talent up front.

Cincinnati will have to cope with a Steelers defense who will be fighting hard to preserve the honour of the franchise and they're going to be desperate to get to Andy Dalton. Andrew Whitworth is back at left tackle and that will help. A J Green is a game-changing receiver whose battle with Ike Taylor should be a highlight. Then there's Troy Polamalu ...

Back the dog in MNF and never oppose Roethlisberger on primetime. Two maxims to live by.

Ah well.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Giovani Bernard @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Brown @ 3 (Paddy Power)

Live NFL Week 2 - San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks 1.30am Ch4

The night owls' pick.

Seattle are a tough team at home; the crowd are aggressive and loud and the Seahawks have a salty, tough hitting defense that will test Kaepernick in a way the Packers couldn't, particularly downfield.

I like Russell Wilson throwing the ball to a competent, if uninspiring receiving corps and scrambling, and Marshawn Lynch working in a zone rushing scheme that could test the 49ers.

It looks like an even go, but I'll fade the visitors in a hostile CenturyLink Field.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -3 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Russell Wilson @ 21
Pick: Anytime TD Vernon Davis @ 2.2

Live NFL Week 2 - Denver Broncos at New York Giants 9.25pm Sky Sports

The battle of the Manning brothers will see two similar offenses going up against each other, in as much as their respective run games are not yet settled, but both teams have fine quarterbacks throwing to deep receiving corps.

Big brother went bananas in the second half last week and the Denver passing game seemed irresistible, however there are still problems along the offensive line and even with Peyton's ability to read the game and get the ball out quickly, if the Giants can bring pressure, it may slow him down; but that's a very big if.

New York should have beaten Dallas last week, but they turned the ball over far too much and it was two of those turnovers by Wilson (and an injury) that has left the backfield in a state of flux. David Wilson was supposed to be the answer on the ground, and the Giants need to establish that element today to allow Eli Manning to throw to the likes of Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Rueben Randle and Brandon Myers and rest their defense.

It's difficult to see the nicked up Giants' secondary slowing Peyton and his receivers, particularly with the emergence of Julius Thomas, and so I expect this to be a tough go for the Giants. It should be a high-scoring game, as Eli throws to keep up with the Denver offensive juggernaut.

Pick: Denver Broncos -4 @ 1.91

Pick: Over 54 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Wes Welker @ 10

Pick: Anytime TD Victor Cruz @ 2.0

Week 2 NFL Teaser

Bet365

Phi -1
KC +3
NO +3
Cin -0.5
Bal -0.5

Pays 5.5

Live NFL Week 2 - Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears 6pm Sky Sports

As always with the Vikings, it's about Adrian Peterson. The Bears will stack the box and make life as difficult as possible for the game's best running back and also force Christian Ponder to try to beat them with his arm. The problem is that Ponder struggles in this situation (he had two horrible games against Chicago last year) and the Minnesota offensive line is already a little banged up. 

The Bears are quick on the interior and it may be a tough day for Peterson and the Vikings on that side of the ball. I expect Ponder to throw at least two picks and if Minnesota fall behind, it may well be more. Kyle Rudolph gets looks in the redzone as a dominating physical specimen, so is worth a look in the TD markets.

The Vikings defense struggled against the run last week and given that it's clear that the coaches in Chicago are now keen to get the ball into Fortes hands, it looks as though the Bears will go to the ground first before opening things up for the likes of Brandon Marshall. 

One of the most interesting aspects of Chicago's game last week was the performance of the new offensive line, which kept Cutler clean all game against a more than capable Bengals' D line. If the line continues to perform at this level Cutler has the ability, and the personnel, to dominate.

A lot of running and maybe a late surge by the home team on a gassed Vikings' D? It looks like Unders and the Bears.

Pick: Chicago Bears -6 @ 1.91 (3-4, -1.18)
Pick: Under 42 @ 1.91 (2-1, +0.82)


Pick: 1st TD Matt Forte @ 7.5 (1-6, +4)
Anytime TD Kyle Rudolph @ 3.1 (3-4, -0.12)

Live NFL - New York Jets at New England Patriots 1.20am Sky Sports

Laying double digits in the NFL is the way to the poorhouse and in Divisional matchups, it may have you living in a ditch by year's end.

This is a horrible game to cap, with both sides struggling and/or injured on offense, and a couple of defenses who are solid.

New England are down to the bare bones on offense. Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski, Zach Sudfeld and Shane Vereen lead the list of probable absentees, limiting the options through the air and on the ground. How do Julian Edelman, Kenbrell Thompkins, Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce grab ya?

Stevan Ridley will likely be the running game, but his benching last week for an untouched fumble doesn't bode well.

No coach/QB combination adapts like Belichick/Brady, but they'll have their work cut out here against a talented young Jets front and Rex Ryan's capable corners.

The New York offense will also struggle on the ground, going up against Tommy Kelly and Vince Wilfork, and rookie quarterback Geno Smith will be throwing to Stephen Hill and Santonio Holmes; I expect Kellen Winslow to have a busy night as Smith's outlet. This is a big game for the rookie QB and he looked a little error-prone in his first start, so he'll need to be on his game.

With two suspect offenses the Unders looks attractive and the number has come in as the week has gone on. Add in the bad weather forecast, it looks the best value bet in a game I'd avoid.

I'm betting here on the Pats' sideline and trigger man, because they've made a silk purse out of enough sows' ears over the years to earn my trust. Also, everyone is smashing into the Jets and I like to oppose the herd!

Pick: New England Patriots -11 @  1.95

Pick: Under 43 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Kenbrell Thompkins @ 11

Pick: Anytime TD NE D/ST @ 3.75 

Live MLB - Washington Nationals at New York Mets 6pm ESPN

Tanner Roark forced his way into the Nats' rotation by pure weight of stats. He didn't light it up in the Minors, but he's 5-0 with a 0.94/0.87 WHIP/ERA line, and a 23/7 K/BB ratio in 28 2/3 innings of work in the bigs.

Aaron Harang pitches for the Mets, just. The home team are on a three game skid too, with the Nats on a five game win streak.

This is a classic example of the runline bet. If it fails, there is no hope for humanity.

Pick: Washington Nationals -1.5 @ 2.0
  
79-81 (+5.68)

Live MLB - Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays 12am ESPN

Neither of these pitchers make my heart sing (although Cobb looks the hurler most likely) so I'll go Over with both offenses capable of putting up runs.

Pick: Over 8 @ 2.1

78-81 (+4.58)

Live MLB - Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays 12am ESPN

Clay Buchholz was tearing it up before he was injured and has a fair record against the Rays. 

David Price is a class act, but has a less impressive record this year. Price is 1.25/4.95 WHIP/ERA L3 and looks like he can be taken on, particularly with Boston hitting better than .300 L5.

Pick: Boston Red Sox @ 2.32

 77-81 (+3.26)

Live NFL - So, what did we learn from Week One? Some (very) random thoughts.

1. Not betting until Week Three is sound advice.

There are those who swear Week Five is when you should get seriously involved, but I think that's excessive. What is clear is that it's very difficult to know just how a team will come out of the gate.

2. Kaepernick is the real deal. I'd forgotten what a great arm has as, as well as his ability to run. If Gore and Hunter can carry on and Vernon Davis not disappear as he is wont to do, with that defense San Francisco can go deep into the postseason.

3. Robert Griffin on the other hand, looked rusty, and Shanahan might be questioning the decision not to give him an outing in preseason after such a long layoff.

4. Aaron Rodgers is Aaron Rodgers (!) Don't count him out.

5. The Broncos may be value even at the price.

6.  'If the Denver Broncos or San Francisco 49ers win the Super Bowl, we will refund all losing outright bets on Super Bowl XLVII.'

 That offer from Paddy Power looks a fine proposition.

7. The San Diego Chargers will usually find a way to lose. Against a decidedly under par Houston Texans in the first half, they managed to put themselves in a position to win ...  then blew it.

8. The Giants/Cowboys game was ugly and didn't tell us much apart from both teams look worth opposing.

9. Chip Kelly's offense is sufficiently high tempo to get journalists very excited and to wear out the Washingtons defense. It will be interesting to see if that pattern is repeated and the prices they generate.

10. In the modern game, Tight Ends are often overpriced in the 'anytime touchdown' market. (That's probably the most encouraging lesson so far.)

11. Matt Schaub to Andre Johnson.

12. Keep stakes small for the time being.

Live NFL - Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers 3.20am Eurosport 2

If you're still awake!

This should be a Houston beatdown, but I thought Washington were a lock.

Give the points in a strong bet.

Pick: Houston -4.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Arian Foster @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Ben Tate @ 2.75

Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins 12.10am Eurosport 2

The much vaunted Chip Kelly express offense rolls into Washington tonight and it will be interesting to see how that offense, and Kelly, do in the NFL - the transition from college to the big league is not always easy.

Expect two tight end sets and lots of LeSean McCoy, with the occasional deep shot downfield to DeSean Jackson. The O line looks solid, which is good news for the Eagles, but depending on how much of the Oregon blueprint Kelly uses, the rhythm might be off. Michael Vick is his usual conundrum, he's announced he'll be running a lot, but breaking the pocket always brings its risks. The Washington pass rush, led by the returning Brian Arakpo will need to get home, because his secondary has struggled. 

Then there's Riley Cooper ... 

Washington are RG III and while he and Shanny seem to have been at odds in the (non-existent) pre-season, Griffin seems ready to roll. Mike Shanahan’s zone scheme looks suited for taking on the Eagles, who are ponderous along the line and are adapting to a new D under new defensive coordinator Billy Davis. I expect Alfred Morris to put up some big numbers. Deeper, I really like Pierre Garcon against what looks like a downgraded Philadelphia secondary; the weak Philadelphia LBs will also give Fred Davis room to operate.

The changes for the Eagles will take time to bed in and it doesn't look as though they have fully addressed their defensive weaknesses. Washington seem primed (they won their last seven last year) and provided they have a fit Robert Griffin under centre, they should take this by better than a TD. The home team's own problems on defense shouldn't be forgotten however, so a touch of Overs is also the call.

Pick: Washington Redskins -3.5 @ 1.91 (3-1, +1.82) 
Pick: Over 52 @ 1.91 (0-1, -1)

Pick: 1st TD Robert Griffin III @ 15 (1-3, +7) 
Pick: Anytime TD Pierre Garcon @ 2.62 (3-1, +2.88)