Live MLB - Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins 7pm ESPN

I've obviously irritated the baseball gods; Sabathia takes a no-no and a three run lead into the fifth - and the Yankees lose 3-4! Again, it was a bet I liked and was part of my regular wagers for that night. 

Incidentally, a couple of people have asked me if I bet these picks; the answer is yes, but I keep them to minimum stakes in general (about £25/$40/€30). So I'm in the poor house!

Santana has had a decent month (0.92/1.74 WHIP/ERA L3) and is tough on the road; 2-2, 2.27. Similarly, Correia has pitched well last three (1.19/2.55) but particularly at home this season, where he is 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA.

The Twins hit well enough last night, but are hitting .248 L5. I'll go Under.

Pick: Under 8 @ 2.05

42 - 49 (-6.01)

Live MLB - New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles 12am ESPN

Shame about last night, I really liked that bet - so much so that it was one of my 'regular' bets. Chien-Ming Wang's collapse was pretty impressive, but the Toronto 'pen was as strong as I thought and it's a bet I'd make again (always the acid test)!

If you're offering Even money CC against long relief, I'll take Sabathia every time. It won't be a stroll against the O's bats, particularly as Sabathia hasn't been in the best form, but the Birds are hitting just .105 against lefties L5.

Pick: New York Yankees @ 2.00

42 - 48 (-5.01)

Live MLB - Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox 12am ESPN

An interesting one. Lester has been tough on the Blue Jays this season (2-0, 2.05 ERA; 13-7, 3.61 ERA lifetime) but has been awful L3 (2.35/9.98).

Chien-Ming Wang (1-0, 2.18) is in the opposite position; he has a poor record in Boston (3-4, 5.40 ERA, 6-6 with a 4.98 ERA lifetime) but has a 1.26/2.18 line L3 and hasn't given up an earned run in 16 1/3 innings. He also hasn't seen the Red Sox since 2009.

Although these teams are at opposite ends of the AL East, Toronto have begun to wake up, going 8-2 L10 and I'm going to take the road dog here and hope Lester's recent poor form continues.

The Toronto bullpen has been brutal recently, so if Chien-Ming Wang can keep this competitive, the price looks value.

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays @ 2.55
  
42 - 47 (-4.01)

*Apologies for picking the earlier game which was not live on TV - I deleted it for the sake of keeping the Blog tidy. It lost anyway!

Live MLB - Texas Rangers at New York Yankees 12am ESPN

These are two pitchers capable of giving up runs in bunches, but I'm not betting the Overs at 1.91.

Instead, and almost by process of elimination, I'm going to take the Rangers, and Grimm off the back of a strong outing, to take this one. Pettitte has marginal figures against Texas and Grimm does at least have the benefit of being a stranger to New York's bats.

Pick: Texas Rangers @ 2.21

41 - 47 (-5.22)

Live MLB - Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks 9pm ESPN

Well, here's hoping these guys don't gift three runs like the Phillies! Ben Revere had a 'mare.

I'll bet the streaks here with the price on offer for the D'backs and the quality of the dog's pitcher. 

It's not an automatic system, but although Latos is clearly the better hurler, Delgado can keep this close enough for the streaks to play.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks @  2.35

 41 - 46 (-4.22)

Live MLB - New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies 6pm ESPN

Matt Harvey owns the Phillies (he's never given up more than 2 runs against them) and he's been outstanding this season. However, Philadelphia own the Mets, having won 10 of the last 12 against New York, including six of the last seven, with a 44-22 score differential.

Lannan's figures against the Mets aren't too shabby, but he'd better go deep into the game, because the home team's bullpen has been awful, going 2.19/8.24 L3.

The Mets should take this behind Harvey, but I can't have them at the price, so I'll go Under with both pitchers facing teams they've kept in check before.

Pick: Under 7.5 @ 1.91

41 - 45 (-3.22)

Live MLB - Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals 5pm ESPN

Two streaks running against the visitors here and the losing streak is particularly worrying, so this should be to small stakes.

Dan Haren has been prone to the long ball too often this season and has generally performed poorly. He has suffered from a lack of run support, but he should be over-matched here, even with the light hitting Rockies in town.

Chacin has shown some good form of late, particularly last time out against the Phillies and his numbers on the road look encouraging (1.23/2.66) but he'll need some offense.

Pick: Colorado Rockies @ 2.05

 40 - 45 (-4.27)

Live MLB - Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers 7pm ESPN

A J Griffin is 1-0 with a 2.87 ERA in three starts versus Texas lifetime, and but for more run support, would have a better record on the season than 5-6. He pitched a great game against Texas on 13th May, and despite the Rangers finally finding some offense, he can keep Oakland competitive here.

In contrast, Josh Lindblom was chased by the A's on 20th May, when he gave up four runs and seven hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 9-2 loss. He is 1.20/5.95 WHIP/ERA L3.

I'll take the favourite.

Pick: Oakland A's @ 1.93

40 - 44 (-3.27)

Live MLB - Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees 12am ESPN

A moderate pitcher coming off the DL and a hurler with a 6.52 ERA in six home starts.

Although neither team is hitting the cover off the ball (and I HATE betting the Overs) I have to believe there'll be runs.

Pick: Over 8 @ 1.8

40 - 43 (-2.27)

Live MLB - San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants 8.45pm ESPN

I like the Overs here. 

Although these two pitchers have good numbers again, Stults has struggled against the Giants this term with an 8.18 ERA, and has a 5.34 ERA lifetime against San Francisco.

Bumgarner has been strong, and had a good outing last time, but he has been vulnerable recently and can give up enough to see us scrape home.

Pick: Over 7 @ 2.1

Live MLB - Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers 6pm ESPN

Both of these pitchers are hot at the moment. Tillman is is 3-0 with a 0.95/1.42 WHIP/ERA L3 and Porcello is 2-1 with a 0.79/1.89 line.

But their home and road splits reveal Tillman has the edge and with the powerful Baltimore offense at his back, Tillman and the O's look the value.

Pick: Baltimore Orioles @ 2.25

39 - 42 (-2.52)

Live MLB - Chicago Cubs at St Louis Cardinals 12am ESPN

You know the drill; two pitchers in Jeff Sagarin's top ten, go Under.

Pick: Under 7.5 @ 1.83

 38 - 42 (-3.35)

*It looks like Lincecum is done - sad.

Live MLB - San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves 1am ESPN

Lincecum is a shadow of his former self, with location and velocity a long way off what it was in his heyday; he has the experience though, which means he can sometimes put together a strong performance, but he's just as likely to get shelled.

The opposite is Julio Teheran, who has all the precocious talent, but is still making his way in the bigs and is a little rough around the edges, so you get one hit ball against the Pirates, followed by a rough time in his last game against the Padres.

I'm going to bet this on emotion though. I'm not a huge fan of 'revenge' games in football or baseball, but if any of you saw last night's blown save, you'll know it was a tough go for the Giants; Romo was throwing some evil back door sliders, but not getting any love at home plate. I think San Francisco will be coming to play.

In Timmy we trust.

Pick: San Francisco Giants @ 2.5
  
38 - 41 (-2.35)

Live MLB - Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds 6pm ESPN

A pitcher I don't like the look of and one coming off the DL (you know how I feel about them) make this look like runs. I'd love to take the price on the Brewers, but Wily Peralta doesn't look like he has the stuff; even though he has done well against the Reds, the sample size is too small.

Cueto similarly, has good numbers against the visitors, but Milwaukee are hitting righties at a .300 clip L5.

Let's hope Sam Holbrook keeps the strike zone tight.

Pick: Over 8 @ 1.91

38 - 40 (-1.35)

Live MLB - Washington Nationals at Cleveland Indians 12am ESPN

The Indians are coming off a tough road trip, but are bullish about Masterson taking the hill at home. Consider this though; Gio Gonzalez is 5-0 with a 0.72 ERA in six career meetings with Cleveland, winning all four visits to Progressive Field, while posting a 0.68 ERA there.

It's been a couple years since he took on the Tribe, but the Nats must have a squeak with Gonzalez pitching.

Pick: Washington Nationals @ 2.25
  
38 - 39 (-0.35)

Live MLB - San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates 12am ESPN

Matt Cain four hit the Diamondbacks last time out and has decent career numbers against the Bucs. More to the point, Morton is making his first start since TJ surgery and I favour opposing pitchers in that situation.

Pick: San Francisco Giants @ 1.87

 37 - 39 (-1.22)

Live MLB - St Louis Cardinals at New York Mets 6pm ESPN

As near to any system I run: both pitchers in the top ten of Jeff Sagarin's ratings and I bet the Under. 

Take the half if you want (it paid last night) but I'll go all the way Under!

Pick: Under 6 @ 2.00

36 - 39 (-2.22)

Live MLB - Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres 8.30pm ESPN

Edinson Volquez looks vulnerable here; his numbers are poor and he'll be mindful that the Friars are going for the sweep, but he got hammered last time out.

Malholm seems to be running back into some sort of form, but he has been horrible on the road. Going Over (especually at Petco Park) and betting the runline are two of my least favourite bets, but I'll fearlessly take them both (gulp). Don't bet the house.

Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 @ 2.30
Pick: Over 8 @ 1.87

Live MLB - Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles 5.30pm ESPN

Although there are two qualifying streaks playing against the Angels in this afternoon's game, Hammel's numbers are ugly; on the season, at home, and career against the Halos.

Added to which, the Birds have cooled at the plate and are back to last year's slim winning margins.

Although Hammel showed signs of life last time out, and has beaten Jerome Williams already this term, the road dog looks the value.

Pick: Los Angeles Angels @ 2.11

35-38 (-2.33)

Live MLB - Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays 12am ESPN

Last night's game was tough on the bullpens, and both starters need to go deep tonight to try and spare those arms.

As it is, neither Jon Lester (1.60/5.12 WHIP/ERA L3) nor Roberto Hernandez (1.28/4.50) have inspiring numbers and with a nice little edge to this game after Lackey hit Joyce and the bats seemingly hot, this looks like an Overs call.

Pick: Over 8 @ 1.95
  
34-38 (-3.28)

Live MLB - Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays 12am ESPN

The art of profitable betting any sport (if such a thing exists!) is largely about identifying live dogs.

Boston sit atop the AL East with some nice momentum and John Lackey has started to run into form too. He has a 1.00/1.89 WHIP/ERA L3 and can keep the Red Sox in this game and rely on an offense hitting 50 points higher than Tampa Bay against righties.

However, the Boston offense will need to keep rolling, because Alex Cobb is having an outstanding season. 

It may be tight, but I'll take the road dog.

Pick: Boston Red Sox @ 2.3
  
33-38 (-4.58)

Live MLB - Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers ESPN 6pm

Two streaks play here and when you consider Masterson's 0-3, 9.16 ERA L3 record on the road and his 2-6, 5.09 lifetime figures against Detroit, it looks like it's worth breaking the rule and taking the home team on the runline.

Although Anibal Sanchez isn't going for Detroit, Alvarez has been tearing it up at Triple-A Toledo and the leftie should be fine

Pick: Detroit Tigers -1.5 @ 2.65

32-39 (-6.88)

Live MLB - Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros ESPN 7pm

Last night was a horrible bet; I didn't like it from the off and lo, it came to pass.

The Astros are on a tear; the worst team in baseball (maybe) is playing like anything but, winning 9 of their last 11. They snag the first pick in the first-year entry draft tonight too, so it must be a pretty happy clubhouse.

Bud Norris takes to the hill for the home team with a 3-1 record and a 2.03 ERA in seven starts at home, off the back of three QS. Norris has a 1.32/0.95 WHIP/ERA line L3.

Miguel Gonzalez, hasn't won since I was a boy, although he's hit some bad luck along the way. He had a poor outing in his last game, but he has decent enough stuff - nontheless, Houston look a value home dog.

Pick: Houston Astros @ 2.3
  
32-38 (-5.88)

Live MLB - Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox ESPN 12am

Lackey has horrible numbers against Texas. Ogando is coming off the DL against an offense that is hitting the ball hard. Fenway is giving up nearly ten runs a game.

There should be a ton of runs ... watch for a one run piters' duel.

Ogando should get chased.

Pick: Over 9 @ 1.87
Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 @ 2.6

32-36 (-3.88)

Live MLB - Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees ESPN 6pm

CC has the stuff and his repaired arm seems to be getting stronger as the season goes on.

Corey Kluber has quietly put together a series of quality starts (and corresponding numbers) and although he seems to be vulnerable in late innings (something to bear in mind if betting I/R) he can keep the runs in check.

I'll go Under.

Pick: Under 8 @ 2.0
32-35 (-2.88)

Live MLB - Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds ESPN 12am

Juan Nicasio will be lucky to keep his place in the Rockies' rotation at this rate. He's got a murderous WHIP and is putting too many on. Nicasio also tends not to go deep into games and the Colorado bullpen has some ugly numbers.

Homer Bailey has much better stuff and the Reds' starting pitching has been stellar of late, so there's some nice momentum on the hill. Interestingly though, his numbers against the Rockies at Great American Ballpark are 0-2 with a 9.69 ERA in three starts.

Both these teams can hit (they're both in the top ten for runs scored) and I've a feeling one of these pitchers might get hit hard tonight. I'll take some Overs.

Pick: Over 8.5 @ 2.05
 31-35 (-2.93)

Live MLB - Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees ESPN 12am

A difficult game to pick; the Tribe don't enjoy the Bronx and although Masterson has excellent numbers against the bombers, he's not done well in Yankee Stadium and Cleveland's bats are hitting just 0.92 against left handed pitching.

Also, Pettitte has good numbers against tonight's opposition and has dominated Cleveland recently.

However, I'm going to take the road dog here, because the Yankees have lost seven of their last eight, they can't seem to get any offense going (they're hitting .192 L5 against righties) and I don't like backing pitchers coming off the DL, particularly at 40 years of age!

Pick: Cleveland Indians @ 2.02
31-34 (-1.93)

Live MLB - Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers ESPN 8pm

Yu Darvish should dominate here; he's been mowing down batters recently and, were it not for a sudden willingness to give up the long ball, his numbers would be even better. As it is, he has a sub 1.0 WHIP and an ERA hovering just over three.

Santana does not enjoy the Rangers, or Arlington. He's 13-11 with a 6.04 ERA in 27 career starts against Texas, and has a 7.47 ERA in 16 career outings in Arlington.

Not my favourite bet, but I'll give the runs at home.

Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 @ 2.00
30-34 (-2.93)

Live MLB -Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers ESPN 9pm

Shields has the stuff, ranking 10 with Sagarin, but the Royals stink, hitting just .226 L5 and going 1-9 L10.
Nick Tepesch had a rocky start, but has been solid L3.
It's difficult to see any value in the win market, but I like the Unders here with Shields on the hill and Kansas swinging a cold stick.
Pick: Under 9 @ 1.91

Live MLB - Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians ESPN 6pm

Apologies for the absence and thank you for the messages begging for my return!

These teams are heading in different direction L10 and the Rays are hitting .284 L5, compared to the Indians' .205.

Archer has been called up with numbers that don't exactly thrill me, but the Tribe's anaemic bats should help. Jimenez had a decent outing in his last game, but he's 1-3 at home with a 10.45 ERA.

Tampa Bay are the value.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ 2.1
29-33 (-2.84)