Live NFL Week 12 6pm - 1.30am

Giants at Redskins

Tough ATS pick; these two defenses stink and their QBs can be anything in any game. Traditionally the Giants own Cousins, but Washington can show some form at home to perhaps head the worst Division in football.

Oppose the herd and go Over.

Pick: Washington Redskins +2.5
Pick: Over 47

Pick: 1st TD Jordan Reed @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD DeSean Jackson @ 2.62

Steelers at Seahawks

Antonio Brown gets an early Christmas present and Ben's going to ping it around, but I like the dynamic Rawls on the ground and Wilson is a much better QB off the back of a strong running game.

Could be a cracker.

Pick: Seahawks -3.5

Pick: 1st TD Thomas Rawls @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Brown @ 1.91

Patriots at Broncos

Brady is running out of bodies on offense and this Denver defense is mighty salty. Osweiler will be sorely tested by the wise old fox who enjoys getting after green QBs. Look for lots of two TE sets in a conservative home attack, but they can shade it here.

Pick: Broncos +2.5

Pick: 1st TD Ronnie Hillman @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD James White @ 3.8

Live NFL - Thanksgiving Turkey Shoot 5.30pm - 1.30am

Gobble gobble, limeys. Here's ya picks.

Eagles at Lions

The Eagles are grounded and look like lion bait here.

Pick: Detriot Lions -2.5

Pick: 1st TD Calvin Johnson @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD DeMarco Murray @ 2.1*

Panthers at Cowboys

Matt Cassell is one hit away and anyway, I like the Panthers.

Pick: Carolina Panthers +1

Pick: 1st TD Greg Olsen @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Dez Bryant @ 2

Bears at Packers

I can't spot this Pack defense that many points.

Pick: Chicago Bears +8.5

Pick: 1st TD James Jones @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Alshon Jeffery @ 2.5*

Live NFL - Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars 1.25am

An excuse for an early night. This is the same sort of treat as the snap of the rubber glove as your doctor tells you to "bend over".

It's Thursday, take the favourite.

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -3 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Allen Robinson @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Delanie Walker @ 2.75

Live NFL - Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals 1.25am

I haven't seen a football weekend like this in a long, long time. ATS picks hammering SU, Manning benched, the Pack turned over like Rousey in the colonies; madness right through the card. I had 27 bets this weekend. I won 9 and was pretty relieved. Awful.

The Bengals have a run at it all, but the Texans have some game on the defensive side - their problem is deep and if the Texans don't get to Dalton (a tough ask with the Cincinnati front four) they could be in deep trouble.

The Bengals play my least favourite defensive philosophy of 'bend but don't break' so they give up the occasional big play, rarely blitz and can give up garbage time scores.

All this means that giving a bunch of points on national TV looks too risky.

It's the MNF dog. Good luck! :)

Pick: Houston Texans +10 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Tyler Eifert @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD DeAndre Hopkins @ 2.3

Live NFL - Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks 1.25am

It's one of those weeks in football. It's Thunderdome, so best to light the hurricane lamps, head down to the cellar and hunker down.

If I have to pick ATS here (and I do!) I'd have to take the opportunity to lay a field goal at CenturyLink Field.

This should be an arm wrestle though and my primary interest would be in the Under.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -3 @ 2
Pick: Under 43.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jimmy Graham @ 2.6

Live NFL - Minnesota Vikings at Oakland Raiders 9.05pm

The Vikes have a decent pass defense, but Derek Carr is tearing it up since the bye week. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are seeing lots of the pill and making some plays out wide.

Terry Bridgewater goes tonight despite taking a cheap shot from Lamarcus Joyner last week (any guesses who was on the defensive clipboard?) and I suspect Minnesota will try to keep him clean by pounding the ball with the ageless Adrian Peterson. Oakland know this of course, and will likely stack the box (they're not that bad against the run anyway) and that might allow Terry to take the occasional cheeky shot vertically against an underwhelming Raiders' pass defense.

This could be a good game. I'll give the FG with the rolling Raiders.

Pick: Oakland Raiders -3 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Amari Cooper @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Stefon Diggs @ 2.6

NFL Week 10 SU 'Hail Mary' Acca

Packers
Panthers
Rams
Eagles
Steelers
Patriots
Broncos
Bengals

@ 10.79

Live NFL - Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles 6pm

I invested in the Eagles earlier in the season and they were a dodos in disguise.

Now however, they might just be throwing off the fluffy baby feathers to reveal a more potent beast beneath. The run game has prompted the transformation (Miami ranks 29th against the run) and with the O line beginning to protect Bradford, he has started to perform too.

The fins are missing Cameron Wake and that could transform a mere loss to the kind of deficit we're looking for.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -6 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jordan Matthews @ 2.2

Live NFL - Buffalo Bills at New York Jets 1.25am

Rex Ryan was supposed to add a little mustard to an already tough defense in Buffalo but it hasn't really happened. That said, he'll be keen to put one over on his old team tonight.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is apparently headed for the operating theatre after the game and it may be that the Bills can finally get after a QB, but the Jets do have a couple of live threats out wide in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker.

The Bills, on the other hand, have Sammy Watkins in the passing game. That's it. It's a shame because (Revis aside) the Jets' secondary is in a mess, but bear in mind Watkins had a huge game last week. The Buffalo run game is rather more potent than their host's, but the Jets are tough to beat on the ground, so it'll be interesting to see how Buffalo runs its offense. I like Tyrod Taylor, who looked good in his first game back and I think he can be the difference here. Just.

Pick: Buffalo Bills +2 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Brandon Marshall @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Sammy Watkins @ 2.62

Live NFL - Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers 1.30am

The Bolts are beating the bushes to find fit bodies and the loss of Keenan Allen, the latest to go down, is a huge loss because the passing game is the whole of the San Diego offense. Philip Rivers is putting up huge numbers, but he'll have to do it with Malcolm Floyd and Stevie Johnson.

The Bears on the other hand, rely on a strong running game, but Forte is out, which is a shame because the Chargers can't stop the run. Cutler will look for Alshon Jeffrey, but I don't think they have enough to get it done - they look in bad shape.

Giving the points on MNF is never a delight, but I can't see past the home team.

Pick: San Diego Chargers -4 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Steve Johnson @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Johnson @ 2.38, Jeremy Langford @ 2

Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys 1.30am

Dallas with Cassel may actually be worse than Dallas with Weeden and that's a helluva an achievement. Ordinarily, that would mean smashing into the visitors, but Sam Bradford has been awful this season and was given fits by this Cowboys defense in Week 2 with the Eagles barely able to get airborne. With Jason Peters struggling, Bradford could be badly exposed.

However, there have been signs of life from Philadelphia and their defense should be tough enough to take on Cassel. DeMarco Murray will have a fire in his belly too.

I'll give a field goal.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3 @ 1.83

Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Dez Bryant @ 2.2

Live NFL - Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts 9.25pm

I can't see past Peyton and his aggressive defense and higher tempo offense giving less than a touchdown. Andrew Luck is banged up and error prone and TY Hilton is listed as doubtful.

Give the points.

Pick: Denver Broncos -4 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Ronnie Hillman @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Demaryius Thomas @ 2

Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers 6pm

By the numbers the Pack stink on offense and Denver crushed them last week with an aggressive pass rush and by taking away any pass game on the outside. Carolina can be just as tough on the perimeter and and have a fine LB corps, but they need to pressure Rodgers - they'll have doubtless spent the short week poring over game tape.

Newton's arm is as patchy as ever, but he remains a running threat and add in a reborn Jonathan Stewart against a Green Bay ground defense that was torn apart by the Broncos' running game and things look ominous for the visitors, particularly with the injuries at the corners. Look for Greg Olson in the Panthers' passing game, the guy is a beast.

I'm nervous about a wounded Pack bouncing back, but I have to take the points.

Pick: Carolina Panthers +3 @ 1.83

Pick: 1st TD Jonathan Stewart @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Greg Olsen @ 2.5

Someone has asked me about my record so far.

First up, apologies for the lack of book keeping. However, I've skimmed the ATS picks and I appear to be 22-15 (59%) on the season. It was a rough start, but you shouldn't really get involved until Week 4. I'm even on the Totals and I can't be bothered to sift through the 1st/Anytime picks, but as I explained, they're not to be considered a serious bet.

The Accas have been a car crash!

Live NFL - Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals 1.30am

The Browns are in freefall (despite a couple of offensive players showing real talent) and Johnny Football is back ... with a disgruntled left side protector and a raft of injuries on both sides of the ball.

The Bengals have been sound on offense, but Dalton freezes on national TV and they can be run on. Truth be told though, they could go over the total themselves because Cleveland's defense is wafer thin.

The thought of Laying 12 points gives me shivers, but I like the Over.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -12 @ 2
Pick: Over 45 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD AJ Green @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Cincinnati D/ST @ 3.5

Live NFL - Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers 1.30am

Not impressed with either team ATS (another back door cover beckons) but I like the Unders. I think both defenses are capable of matching up effectively here and the weather forecast is for rain.

Leave the spread, go Under.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts +5.5 @ 2
Pick: Under 46.5 @ 1.92

Pick: 1st TD Frank Gore @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Mike Tolbert @ 3.75, Cam Newton @ 2.2

Live MLB - Game 5 World Series 1am

PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH Edinson Volquez (1-2, 4.37 ERA) vs. Mets RH Matt Harvey (2-0, 3.38)

I opposed Volquez in Game 1. He pitched despite learning his father had passed away earlier that day and has been away from the team for a few days. There's no telling how he'll pitch, so I have to oppose him again, but can't have the Mets at the price.

Go Over again, it's the only value here.

Pick: Over 7 @ 2

Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos 1.30am

The herd are keen on Rodgers coming into Sports Authority Field to take down the Broncos, and there's no denying Peyton Manning's terminal decline. Green Bay though (by which I mean Aaron Rodgers) haven't been clicking on offense recently and Denver boasts the defense giving up the fewest passing yards per game.

Not a game to get heavily involved in, but I have a slight lean to the home team.

Buy the half point.

Pick: Denver Broncos +3 @ 1.83

Pick: 1st TD Ronnie Hillman @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Demaryius Thomas @ 2.1

Live NFL - Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers 6pm

The return of Ben Roethlisberger has cast the Bengals as very marginal dogs in some places, but the injury to Big Ben is a real concern, so much so that the matchup between Carlos Dunlap and Marcus Gilbert may be the key to this game. Either way, I have a feeling Pittsburgh are one hit away from Landry Jones.

Le'Veon Bell is the big offensive danger for the Bengals and they need to find a way to bottle him up, but if they can prevent him running riot and make Roethlisberger uncomfortable, they can win this.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals @ 1.97

Pick: 1st TD Le'Veon Bell @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD AJ Green @ 2

NFL Week 8 SU 'Hail Mary' Acca

Falcons
Cardinals
Seahawks
Rams
Packers
Panthers

@ 7.65

ATS Acca

Falcons -6.5
Rams -8
Panthers -7.5

@ 7.66

Live NFL - Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs 2.30pm

Roger Goodell gets paid about $40 million a year. Think about that when you're watching the latest shovel of horse feathers the NFL is serving up in London!

This game pits patchy offenses against horrible defenses. Jim Caldwell is busy throwing his coaches under the double decker, and the Chiefs' loss of Jamaal Charles has hamstrung their attack.

On the plus side, it means Matt Stafford is now operating in an offense that better suits his skill set (throw it a long way to Megatron and hope he hauls it in) and Kansas will certainly sling it with Jeremy Maclin back and a Detroit secondary that couldn't stop me lumbering downfield, pausing only to puff on my inhaler and puke a lung.

Give the points if you must bet the spread (I won't be) and take a small interest on the Over in what could be a gloriously comical shootout.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 @ 2.08
Pick: Over Over 45 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Charcandrick West @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jeremy Maclin @ 2.1