PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH Chris Young (1-0, 2.31 ERA) vs. Mets LH Steven Matz (0-1, 3.72)
0-3, make of that what you will!
Both of tonight's hurlers may be on a short leash and if the
managers turn to their pens, I like the Royals. In any case, the price
on the Mets is poor for a pitcher of the experience and post-season
record of Steve Matz.
An interesting note: Over has cashed in every game and tonight's plate umpire, Jim Wolf has called 7 Overs in the last 8.
Pick: Kansas City Royals @ 2.25
Pick: Over 7 @ 2
Saturday 31 October 2015
Friday 30 October 2015
Live MLB - Game 3 World Series 12am
PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH Yordano Ventura (0-1, 5.09 ERA) vs. Mets RH Noah Syndergaard (1-1, 2.77)
The Mets haven't been able to hold leads in both games, outlasted by the Royals' bullpen in the first and seeing a previously rock solid pitcher collapse in a heap in the second. To add insult to injury for the Mets, the crucial Kansas bullpen, worked hard in Game 1, got the night off in Game 2 as Cueto pitched a beauty, again against form.
It's an old maxim in baseball, that good pitching always beats good hitting, but the Mets much vaunted rotation hasn't produced and the contact hitting of the Royals and the depth and solidity of their bullpen has been too much.
Now, in what is surely a must-win third set, at home in New York, we have the Mets' fireballer, Noah Syndergaard going up against another Royals' pitcher who has been less than convincing in the post-season.
Syndergaard has been particularly strong at home and all things being equal, looks a lock. However, at the price, it's worth betting the streak, the Royals' bullpen and hitting. A small interest.
Pick: Kansas City Royals @ 2.4
The Mets haven't been able to hold leads in both games, outlasted by the Royals' bullpen in the first and seeing a previously rock solid pitcher collapse in a heap in the second. To add insult to injury for the Mets, the crucial Kansas bullpen, worked hard in Game 1, got the night off in Game 2 as Cueto pitched a beauty, again against form.
It's an old maxim in baseball, that good pitching always beats good hitting, but the Mets much vaunted rotation hasn't produced and the contact hitting of the Royals and the depth and solidity of their bullpen has been too much.
Now, in what is surely a must-win third set, at home in New York, we have the Mets' fireballer, Noah Syndergaard going up against another Royals' pitcher who has been less than convincing in the post-season.
Syndergaard has been particularly strong at home and all things being equal, looks a lock. However, at the price, it's worth betting the streak, the Royals' bullpen and hitting. A small interest.
Pick: Kansas City Royals @ 2.4
Thursday 29 October 2015
Live NFL - Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots 12.25am
Can I get a "WHOOP WHOOP" for the MNF pick?! A stopped clock and all that :)
This has the same feel to it, although I'm less enthusiastic, so I'll be keeping stakes modest.
Traditionally, New England kicks Miami up and down the field at Gillette Stadium (6-0 ATS), but the elevation of Dan Campbell after Joe Philbin was shown the door has completely re-energised the fins. Their balance on offense is really nice (something I always look for - a stud here and there is fine, but give me a little running and a little passing any day) and Tannehill has got the O purring. Last week against the Texans they were merciless. On the other side of the ball too, Miami have suddenly found some form and Cameron Wake is playing out of his mind, racking up 6 sacks in the last two weeks. Even Suh looks a new player in a front that looks pretty salty.
Of course, the red hot Pats' desire for revenge for Deflategate is still driving them on and the Gronk is as unstoppable as ever, so I don't see an upset SU, but again, a back door cover may be on, or Miami will keep it just close enough.
Don't go mad (New England are 8-2-2 ATS as single-digit home favourites over the past three seasons) but take the points.
Pick: Miami Dolphins +8.5 @ 1.92
Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jarvis Landry @ 2.4
This has the same feel to it, although I'm less enthusiastic, so I'll be keeping stakes modest.
Traditionally, New England kicks Miami up and down the field at Gillette Stadium (6-0 ATS), but the elevation of Dan Campbell after Joe Philbin was shown the door has completely re-energised the fins. Their balance on offense is really nice (something I always look for - a stud here and there is fine, but give me a little running and a little passing any day) and Tannehill has got the O purring. Last week against the Texans they were merciless. On the other side of the ball too, Miami have suddenly found some form and Cameron Wake is playing out of his mind, racking up 6 sacks in the last two weeks. Even Suh looks a new player in a front that looks pretty salty.
Of course, the red hot Pats' desire for revenge for Deflategate is still driving them on and the Gronk is as unstoppable as ever, so I don't see an upset SU, but again, a back door cover may be on, or Miami will keep it just close enough.
Don't go mad (New England are 8-2-2 ATS as single-digit home favourites over the past three seasons) but take the points.
Pick: Miami Dolphins +8.5 @ 1.92
Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jarvis Landry @ 2.4
Wednesday 28 October 2015
Live MLB - Game 2 World Series 12am
PITCHING MATCHUP: Mets RH Jacob deGrom (3-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Royals RH Johnny Cueto (1-1, 7.88)
Game 1 went more or less as I expected, except the Mets couldn't quite finish the job, despite leading (for the second time in the game) going into the bottom of the ninth - it was classic Royals' baseball.
Tonight's game is a less difficult pick, in as much as Jacob deGrom has been excellent in the post-season (3 road wins, 20IP, 4ER) in stark contrast to Johnny Cueto.
Terry Collins has rested deGrom to be sure that he's ready to go; again contrast Cueto, who has been ensured a home start because Ned Yost feels he may be mentally fragile. Cueto is 3-3 with a 4.07ERA at Kauffman Stadium in 6 outings.
The Royals' pen also put in a shift last night and may struggle to repeat the performance if the game goes long tonight.
If the Mets don't over press, relax and just rely on Cueto's shaky form, they can take Game 2.
Pick: New York Mets @ 1.91
Game 1 went more or less as I expected, except the Mets couldn't quite finish the job, despite leading (for the second time in the game) going into the bottom of the ninth - it was classic Royals' baseball.
Tonight's game is a less difficult pick, in as much as Jacob deGrom has been excellent in the post-season (3 road wins, 20IP, 4ER) in stark contrast to Johnny Cueto.
Terry Collins has rested deGrom to be sure that he's ready to go; again contrast Cueto, who has been ensured a home start because Ned Yost feels he may be mentally fragile. Cueto is 3-3 with a 4.07ERA at Kauffman Stadium in 6 outings.
The Royals' pen also put in a shift last night and may struggle to repeat the performance if the game goes long tonight.
If the Mets don't over press, relax and just rely on Cueto's shaky form, they can take Game 2.
Pick: New York Mets @ 1.91
Monday 26 October 2015
Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals 12.30am
'Hey Joe, where you goin' with that gun in your hand?'
Ah, Flacco, the 'cappers nightmare, rolling into town with not a lot to throw to and a defense that just lies down in the face of any passing game - not good with Carson Palmer waiting. Arizona put up huge numbers through the air and although their last game wasn't an exhibition of attacking football, they should shred the Ravens' secondary.
Giving 9.5 points on MNF is bananas though and this has back door cover written all over it.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens +9.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Chris Johnson @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Justin Forsett @ 2.1
*Someone messaged me to ask about which Picks to bet. The primary bet is always ATS (unless I advise leaving it alone) and/or the Totals. The TD markets are to keep you awake!
Ah, Flacco, the 'cappers nightmare, rolling into town with not a lot to throw to and a defense that just lies down in the face of any passing game - not good with Carson Palmer waiting. Arizona put up huge numbers through the air and although their last game wasn't an exhibition of attacking football, they should shred the Ravens' secondary.
Giving 9.5 points on MNF is bananas though and this has back door cover written all over it.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens +9.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Chris Johnson @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Justin Forsett @ 2.1
*Someone messaged me to ask about which Picks to bet. The primary bet is always ATS (unless I advise leaving it alone) and/or the Totals. The TD markets are to keep you awake!
Sunday 25 October 2015
Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers 12.30am
This is an interesting matchup. The Eagles' defense has been brutal, but
Cam Newton is a different proposition and at the moment he's on fire.
The Eagles take away the run game, so it'll be up to Cam to find a way
to work it to an underwhelming receiving corps, outside Greg Olsen, or
keep the chains moving by running himself.
Similarly, the Panthers have been putting up some good D, despite the absence of DE Charles Johnson, and Josh Norman must have looked at the game tape from Bradford's last outing and be thinking that Christmas may have come early.
If Sam Bradford throws three picks again tonight, he may be gone with the Bye week coming, but Chip Kelly will likely try to limit the opportunities for disaster by feeding DeMarco Murray, who has found some form of late, although taking Carolina on on the ground is a big ask.
There are too many imponderables here to back the teams with any great confidence ATS, but I think the Eagles probably have more options ... the problem is Sam Bradford and the price on the key number.
There is a value bet here, and it's the Under: two tough defenses and offenses with obvious limitations.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +3 @ 1.87
Pick: Under 45.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Cam Newton @ 2.75
Similarly, the Panthers have been putting up some good D, despite the absence of DE Charles Johnson, and Josh Norman must have looked at the game tape from Bradford's last outing and be thinking that Christmas may have come early.
If Sam Bradford throws three picks again tonight, he may be gone with the Bye week coming, but Chip Kelly will likely try to limit the opportunities for disaster by feeding DeMarco Murray, who has found some form of late, although taking Carolina on on the ground is a big ask.
There are too many imponderables here to back the teams with any great confidence ATS, but I think the Eagles probably have more options ... the problem is Sam Bradford and the price on the key number.
There is a value bet here, and it's the Under: two tough defenses and offenses with obvious limitations.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +3 @ 1.87
Pick: Under 45.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Cam Newton @ 2.75
Live NFL - Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants 8.25pm
Weeden is replaced by Cassell and it might just be an upgrade.
Stick a fork in the Cowboys, they're done.
Pick: New York Giants -3 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Rashad Jennings @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Odell Beckham @ 2
Stick a fork in the Cowboys, they're done.
Pick: New York Giants -3 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Rashad Jennings @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Odell Beckham @ 2
Live NFL - New York Jets at New England Patriots 5.00pm
Bill and Tom just refuse to forgive and forget and today they'll force a
gimpy Fitzpatrick to throw a lot - never a good thing, even with the
excellent wideouts he has to aim at. To do that though, the Patriots
need to contain Chris Ivory (a brute after contact) and take away Decker
in the slot. A big ask.
Brady will have to combat a returning Revis, but perhaps the key matchups will be Cromartie on Gronkowski (I'm guessing that's what the Jets will do, as I can't see Davis and Pace containing the Gronk) and the Jets' LBs on runners catching out of the NE backfield, because beating the Jets on the outside is difficult. The Jets like to blitz a lot, but that opens up a vulnerability to TEs and I suspect Brady and Belichick will scheme that matchup all day.
A tough pick, I like the Jets, but the Patriots are on a mission.
Pick: New England Patriots -7.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Chris Ivory @ 2
Brady will have to combat a returning Revis, but perhaps the key matchups will be Cromartie on Gronkowski (I'm guessing that's what the Jets will do, as I can't see Davis and Pace containing the Gronk) and the Jets' LBs on runners catching out of the NE backfield, because beating the Jets on the outside is difficult. The Jets like to blitz a lot, but that opens up a vulnerability to TEs and I suspect Brady and Belichick will scheme that matchup all day.
A tough pick, I like the Jets, but the Patriots are on a mission.
Pick: New England Patriots -7.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Chris Ivory @ 2
Live NFL - Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars 1.30pm
Gawd, these geezers at NFL must 'ate Lahndahn (actually the players do
hate the trip - don't believe the hype) to put up these two bleedin'
awful teams.
Each side is carrying injuries and Manuel coming in for the Bills is only one of a raft that makes this pick shaky. Ordinarily, Manuel wouldn't be too much of a problem, but injuries mean he has no-one to throw to, which is a shame, because the Jags' secondary couldn't stop a crisp packet blowing downfield. Expect LeSean McCoy and Charles Clay to be the entire Bills' offense.
I like Blake Bortles, but his protection is so dreadful (he's getting sacked nearly 3 times a game) that he's often forced into errors. Buffalo don't have a great pass rush, but they'll send everyone this afternoon. There's a decent secondary for the Bills too, so they'll eat up any mistakes. With no running game to support him, Bortles will be throwing a lot under pressure.
Not a game to savour, or bet the kids' college fund.
Pick: Buffalo Bills -3.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD LeSean McCoy @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Charles Clay @ 2.38
Each side is carrying injuries and Manuel coming in for the Bills is only one of a raft that makes this pick shaky. Ordinarily, Manuel wouldn't be too much of a problem, but injuries mean he has no-one to throw to, which is a shame, because the Jags' secondary couldn't stop a crisp packet blowing downfield. Expect LeSean McCoy and Charles Clay to be the entire Bills' offense.
I like Blake Bortles, but his protection is so dreadful (he's getting sacked nearly 3 times a game) that he's often forced into errors. Buffalo don't have a great pass rush, but they'll send everyone this afternoon. There's a decent secondary for the Bills too, so they'll eat up any mistakes. With no running game to support him, Bortles will be throwing a lot under pressure.
Not a game to savour, or bet the kids' college fund.
Pick: Buffalo Bills -3.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD LeSean McCoy @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Charles Clay @ 2.38
Thursday 22 October 2015
Live NFL - Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers 1.25am
These aren't two teams that inspire confidence. Seattle have been
horribly erratic and prone to blowing games late and the 49ers have just
been horrible.
That said, San Francisco have shown signs of life in their last two games and Kaepernick has gone from a pick away from riding the pine, to a half decent QB. However, I don't like their injuries on either side of the ball and there's a feeling they could collapse in a heap just as easily as overcome a team that has consistently beaten them.
The Seahawks have struggled to put together any meaningful offense, largely because Marshawn Lynch has battled injury and a ropey O line and the passing game has followed him down the tubes. Again though, Lynch played a full, if underwhelming, part last week and Jimmy Graham finally flashed, so they can mount a challenge.
This is largely an instinctive bet ATS and not one I'd recommend (I'm staying away) but an interest in the Under looks more worthwhile with two teams that still haven't clicked on offense.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers +6.5 @ 1.91 (it might be worth buying the half point onto a key number if you must bet ATS)
Pick: Under 42.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Anquan Boldin @ 3
That said, San Francisco have shown signs of life in their last two games and Kaepernick has gone from a pick away from riding the pine, to a half decent QB. However, I don't like their injuries on either side of the ball and there's a feeling they could collapse in a heap just as easily as overcome a team that has consistently beaten them.
The Seahawks have struggled to put together any meaningful offense, largely because Marshawn Lynch has battled injury and a ropey O line and the passing game has followed him down the tubes. Again though, Lynch played a full, if underwhelming, part last week and Jimmy Graham finally flashed, so they can mount a challenge.
This is largely an instinctive bet ATS and not one I'd recommend (I'm staying away) but an interest in the Under looks more worthwhile with two teams that still haven't clicked on offense.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers +6.5 @ 1.91 (it might be worth buying the half point onto a key number if you must bet ATS)
Pick: Under 42.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Anquan Boldin @ 3
Tuesday 20 October 2015
Live NFL - New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles 1.30am
If it's MNF, it's the dog, right? Wrong.
As my reader knows, I'm fearless, so I'm taking the favourite here.
The Eagles may not be a bust after all and with Bradford settling in and the Giants' D missing some key components, and a pass rush, -3.5 at home looks value.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Zach Ertz @ 3.25
As my reader knows, I'm fearless, so I'm taking the favourite here.
The Eagles may not be a bust after all and with Bradford settling in and the Giants' D missing some key components, and a pass rush, -3.5 at home looks value.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Zach Ertz @ 3.25
Sunday 18 October 2015
Live NFL - New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts 1.30am
Deflategate - The Revenge
Tom and Bill will pull out all the stops against a team they've owned in the recent past, but I don't like the loss of Solder along an already beatable line and Brady's blindside is potentially opened up. Still, the Pats' offense has weapons everywhere and I expect them to pour it on.
The Colts have taken some time to get into gear, but they're showing real signs of life on the offensive side, coming off three straight divisional wins. Luck should be back, and he's back into an offense that's found some rhythm. It won't be enough to keep up, but it should be enough to take advantage of a nine point start.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts +9 @ 1.95
Pick: Over 53.5 @ 1.98
Pick: 1st TD LeGarrette Blount @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Andre Johnson @ 3.4
Tom and Bill will pull out all the stops against a team they've owned in the recent past, but I don't like the loss of Solder along an already beatable line and Brady's blindside is potentially opened up. Still, the Pats' offense has weapons everywhere and I expect them to pour it on.
The Colts have taken some time to get into gear, but they're showing real signs of life on the offensive side, coming off three straight divisional wins. Luck should be back, and he's back into an offense that's found some rhythm. It won't be enough to keep up, but it should be enough to take advantage of a nine point start.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts +9 @ 1.95
Pick: Over 53.5 @ 1.98
Pick: 1st TD LeGarrette Blount @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Andre Johnson @ 3.4
Live NFL - Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks 9.05pm
Always a tough road trip, but although Carolina haven't played a stellar
lineup of opponents thus far, they are an aggressive defense looking to
protect an unbeaten record.
The Seahawks haven't hit their straps on offense and the Panthers are a team that the returning Lynch has traditionally struggled against, even when fit.
Again, it'll be tight, and I can't see many points, but 7 is too much to spot the visitors.
Pick: Carolina Panthers +7 @ 1.91
Pick: Under 40.4 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Greg Olsen @ 3.2
The Seahawks haven't hit their straps on offense and the Panthers are a team that the returning Lynch has traditionally struggled against, even when fit.
Again, it'll be tight, and I can't see many points, but 7 is too much to spot the visitors.
Pick: Carolina Panthers +7 @ 1.91
Pick: Under 40.4 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Greg Olsen @ 3.2
Live NFL - Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills 6pm
Dalton has been a revelation and the Bills have EJ Manuel under centre
behind a shaky O line. McCoy looks as though he'll play, but he's very
gimpy too. It's a tough call, but I'll give the points.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -3 @ 2.05
Pick: 1st TD AJ Green @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Giovani Bernard @ 2.88
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -3 @ 2.05
Pick: 1st TD AJ Green @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Giovani Bernard @ 2.88
Thursday 15 October 2015
Live NFL - Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints 1.25am
It's Thursday: take the favourite and go Over.
Again, the broad principle is supported by the analysis. Everyone's been hanging on, waiting for the Saints to turn it around, but nothing has happened - they stink.
Julio Jones will play tonight, which adds to the Saints' woes as their D is horrible. Devonta Freeman will soften them up running and catching, allowing Ryan to take some deep shots. Drew Brees has some weapons, but his protection is non-existent and the Falcons' secondary matches up well. Mark Ingram will pound the rock, but it shouldn't be enough.
Give the points.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3.5 @ 2.05
Pick: Over 51.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Devonta Freeman @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Willie Snead @ 2.4
Again, the broad principle is supported by the analysis. Everyone's been hanging on, waiting for the Saints to turn it around, but nothing has happened - they stink.
Julio Jones will play tonight, which adds to the Saints' woes as their D is horrible. Devonta Freeman will soften them up running and catching, allowing Ryan to take some deep shots. Drew Brees has some weapons, but his protection is non-existent and the Falcons' secondary matches up well. Mark Ingram will pound the rock, but it shouldn't be enough.
Give the points.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3.5 @ 2.05
Pick: Over 51.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Devonta Freeman @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Willie Snead @ 2.4
Monday 12 October 2015
Live NFL - Pittsburgh Steelers at San Diego Chargers 1.30am
I ain't tellin' ya again, hoss. Take the dog on Monday Night Football!
Actually, there's a case to be made for the Steelers, who are coming off enough time to work out the many kinks in any offense with Vick throwing the ball (his legs and arm no longer compensate for the slow progressions and poor decisions) but in any case, Vick can hand it off because LeVeon Bell should wreak havoc on the ground.
The Pittsburgh defense should be on a mission after choking against the Ravens. That's good news against a ropey bolts' O line ravaged by injury. It's not fatal for San Diego, because Rivers is hot at the moment and the Steelers' secondary is ropey at best, but it'll all be on the Chargers' QB to win this and he'll be under pressure all night.
Pick: Pittsburgh +3.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD LeVeon Bell @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Keenan Allen @ 2.62
Actually, there's a case to be made for the Steelers, who are coming off enough time to work out the many kinks in any offense with Vick throwing the ball (his legs and arm no longer compensate for the slow progressions and poor decisions) but in any case, Vick can hand it off because LeVeon Bell should wreak havoc on the ground.
The Pittsburgh defense should be on a mission after choking against the Ravens. That's good news against a ropey bolts' O line ravaged by injury. It's not fatal for San Diego, because Rivers is hot at the moment and the Steelers' secondary is ropey at best, but it'll all be on the Chargers' QB to win this and he'll be under pressure all night.
Pick: Pittsburgh +3.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD LeVeon Bell @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Keenan Allen @ 2.62
Sunday 11 October 2015
Live NFL - New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles 6pm
The much vaunted Eagles' offense has failed to find any sort of rhythm
and with an already under-performing O line badly banged up, Sam
Bradford (who admittedly flashed some form last week in a losing cause)
may struggle again, even against a mediocre Saints defense. Really, Chip
Kelly has to run the ball all day, but his reticence to do so thus far
makes that unlikely. They really struggle to convert on third down and
that just throttles a high tempo offense. I'm not thrilled with the
atmosphere in Philly (no-one ever is!) and Kelly saying Sturgis stays on
the roster just because there's nothing in the FA pool was hilarious.
Drew Brees is gimpy and not throwing the ball as deep as often as usual, and he too could have protection problems. Brees doesn't have a stellar cast downfield but they do have some speed and the Eagles' secondary struggles. Also the Saints' backs are catching and having seen Kirk Cousins dink and dunk the Eagles to death last week, I'll take the points.
Pick: New Orleans Saints +6 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 9.5
Pick: Anytime TD Willie Snead @ 3.75
Drew Brees is gimpy and not throwing the ball as deep as often as usual, and he too could have protection problems. Brees doesn't have a stellar cast downfield but they do have some speed and the Eagles' secondary struggles. Also the Saints' backs are catching and having seen Kirk Cousins dink and dunk the Eagles to death last week, I'll take the points.
Pick: New Orleans Saints +6 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 9.5
Pick: Anytime TD Willie Snead @ 3.75
Monday 5 October 2015
Live NFL - Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks 1.30am
I would back practically any 10pt dog on MNF.
National TV does strange things to struggling teams, but the Lions are so awful at the moment, it's hard to invest. Also, any modest success Detroit have had has been in garbage time, but Seattle don't play that way - when the opposition is on its knees and long since out of the contest, they go back and kick 'em in the teeth just for fun.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -10
Pick: 1st TD Thomas Rawls @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Russell Wilson @ 3.75; Thomas Rawls @ 2
National TV does strange things to struggling teams, but the Lions are so awful at the moment, it's hard to invest. Also, any modest success Detroit have had has been in garbage time, but Seattle don't play that way - when the opposition is on its knees and long since out of the contest, they go back and kick 'em in the teeth just for fun.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -10
Pick: 1st TD Thomas Rawls @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Russell Wilson @ 3.75; Thomas Rawls @ 2
Sunday 4 October 2015
Live NFL - St Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals 9.25pm
Arizona have set away at a gallop and Carson Palmer has looked like an elite triggerman behind what many people consider a moderate O line. It'll certainly be tested tonight by a Rams team that can't mount any offense, but is tough on defense and will blitz all night.
The Cardinal with Palmer are money at home, but this is a consecutive Divisional matchup and although everyone is smashing into the Cardinals, I have a sneaky feeling that opposing the herd with a TD on offer might be the bet.
The fly in the ointment though, is Nick Foles and the Rams offense, which has been horrible. I really wish James Bettcher wasn't on the opposite sideline, because his experience of Foles means he can make it awkward for him, and Foles had little enough to to throw to without Kenny Britt going down. There hasn't been a run game to talk about with no gaps to aim for.
Keep the bet small if you must bet this one.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals -7 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Chris Johnson @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Larry Fitzgerald @ 2.1
The Cardinal with Palmer are money at home, but this is a consecutive Divisional matchup and although everyone is smashing into the Cardinals, I have a sneaky feeling that opposing the herd with a TD on offer might be the bet.
The fly in the ointment though, is Nick Foles and the Rams offense, which has been horrible. I really wish James Bettcher wasn't on the opposite sideline, because his experience of Foles means he can make it awkward for him, and Foles had little enough to to throw to without Kenny Britt going down. There hasn't been a run game to talk about with no gaps to aim for.
Keep the bet small if you must bet this one.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals -7 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Chris Johnson @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Larry Fitzgerald @ 2.1
NFL Live - Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals 6pm
The Bengals have got things ticking nicely on both sides of the ball. Dalton is efficient, accurate and doesn't give it away behind an O line that is keeping him very clean. The banged up Kansas secondary will face a triple threat deep from Eifert, Jones and a red hot AJ Green.
The home team's defense is similarly efficient and the front seven will give Alex Smith a tough time; more importantly, they'll make life very difficult for Jamaal Charles running, and I suspect he'll be catching out of the backfield a lot - the one aspect of the Cincinnati defense that can struggle. Still, it shouldn't be enough.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 @ 2.05
Pick: 1st TD AJ Green @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Travis Kelce @ 2.6
The home team's defense is similarly efficient and the front seven will give Alex Smith a tough time; more importantly, they'll make life very difficult for Jamaal Charles running, and I suspect he'll be catching out of the backfield a lot - the one aspect of the Cincinnati defense that can struggle. Still, it shouldn't be enough.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 @ 2.05
Pick: 1st TD AJ Green @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Travis Kelce @ 2.6
Live NFL - New York Jets at Miami Dolphins 2.30pm
What an early treat.
A defense that couldn't stop offensive leviathans like Kirk Cousins, Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor, up against the Fitzpatrick turnover machine who has Brian Winters at RG battling Ndamukong Suh. Add in Brent Grimes prowling downfield waiting for one of Fitz's hurried lobs in the general direction of Brandon Marshall and it shapes up like a live blooper reel.
The Jets defense is tough and Tannehill is operating behind what may be one of the worst O lines in football; he had a horrible time last week (not disguised by the garbage time numbers) and it shouldn't be any prettier this afternoon. Maybe Jarvis Landry and Rishard Matthews can get it done, but I doubt it.
A horrible game best watched in a post-roast beef slumber with your money safely in your pocket. Bet the defense.
Pick: New York Jets -2.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Brandon Marshall @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Rishard Matthews @ 3.25
A defense that couldn't stop offensive leviathans like Kirk Cousins, Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor, up against the Fitzpatrick turnover machine who has Brian Winters at RG battling Ndamukong Suh. Add in Brent Grimes prowling downfield waiting for one of Fitz's hurried lobs in the general direction of Brandon Marshall and it shapes up like a live blooper reel.
The Jets defense is tough and Tannehill is operating behind what may be one of the worst O lines in football; he had a horrible time last week (not disguised by the garbage time numbers) and it shouldn't be any prettier this afternoon. Maybe Jarvis Landry and Rishard Matthews can get it done, but I doubt it.
A horrible game best watched in a post-roast beef slumber with your money safely in your pocket. Bet the defense.
Pick: New York Jets -2.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Brandon Marshall @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Rishard Matthews @ 3.25
Thursday 1 October 2015
Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers 1.25am
These are situations I usually like - a key player goes down and the market overreacts making the team in question a value bet.
However, I'm less keen here as Roethlisberger is such a central element in Todd Haley's offense. (This may seem obvious, but generally stand-ins in football, even at QB, can maintain the plan) Michael Vick though, is off a short week and was horrible when he came in (and in New York) and it will be difficult to keep the pass happy steel wheels rollin'.
LeVeon Bell will doubtless be part of the answer, but presumably the Ravens will stack the box and force Vick to throw. That doesn't bode well.
Flacco is just as capable of picking your pocket as lining it and he'll need the reborn Steve Smith to continue to produce, as the Ravens' run game is going nowhere. The Steelers' numbers on D are impressive, but they haven't had to fight off any real offensive threats, so there may be light at the end of the 0-3 tunnel for Baltimore.
In truth, this is a game to avoid at all costs, although if you must, Maxx Williams looks an interesting bet with Gillmore out in a Baltimore O that hits TEs.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3 @ 2.05
Pick: First TD LeVeon Bell @ 6; Maxx Williams @ 17
Pick: Anytime TD Maxx Williams @ 3.25
However, I'm less keen here as Roethlisberger is such a central element in Todd Haley's offense. (This may seem obvious, but generally stand-ins in football, even at QB, can maintain the plan) Michael Vick though, is off a short week and was horrible when he came in (and in New York) and it will be difficult to keep the pass happy steel wheels rollin'.
LeVeon Bell will doubtless be part of the answer, but presumably the Ravens will stack the box and force Vick to throw. That doesn't bode well.
Flacco is just as capable of picking your pocket as lining it and he'll need the reborn Steve Smith to continue to produce, as the Ravens' run game is going nowhere. The Steelers' numbers on D are impressive, but they haven't had to fight off any real offensive threats, so there may be light at the end of the 0-3 tunnel for Baltimore.
In truth, this is a game to avoid at all costs, although if you must, Maxx Williams looks an interesting bet with Gillmore out in a Baltimore O that hits TEs.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3 @ 2.05
Pick: First TD LeVeon Bell @ 6; Maxx Williams @ 17
Pick: Anytime TD Maxx Williams @ 3.25
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