ATS (39-33, +5.35)
Totals (11-11, -0.67)
1st TD (11-52, +31.5)
Anytime TD (39-67, -5.04)
Teasers (5-12, +37)
Total +68.14
Monday 30 December 2013
Sunday 29 December 2013
Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys 1.30am Channel 4
If Tyron Smith continues to play as well as he has, Kyle Orton is no bum and can get after the Eagles' secondary, but with Sean Lee still out (as well as Ernie Sims) Dallas just look too vulnerable.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 @ 1.91
Pick: Over 52 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD LeSean McCoy @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Dez Bryant @ 2
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 @ 1.91
Pick: Over 52 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD LeSean McCoy @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Dez Bryant @ 2
Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears 9.25pm Sky Sports
Rodgers is back (but he's vulnerable, so I wouldn't go all in) and the Cutlet just can't beat the Pack.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -3 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Matt Forte @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Martellus Bennett @ 3.4; James Starks @ 3.3
Pick: Green Bay Packers -3 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Matt Forte @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Martellus Bennett @ 3.4; James Starks @ 3.3
Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals 6pm Sky Sports
I don't like Flacco on his bad knee and the Ravens have struggled to stop the run game lately, especially big backs like Green-Ellis running inside. Added to which, Dalton has multiple weapons deep.
Baltimore needs the win, but the Bengals want the bye just as much.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TDA J Green @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Benjarvus Green-Ellis @ 2.2
-------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (37-33, +3.40)
Totals (11-10, +0.33)
1st TD (8-52, +11.5)
Anytime TD (38-64, -3.04)
(+12.19)
Baltimore needs the win, but the Bengals want the bye just as much.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TDA J Green @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Benjarvus Green-Ellis @ 2.2
-------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (37-33, +3.40)
Totals (11-10, +0.33)
1st TD (8-52, +11.5)
Anytime TD (38-64, -3.04)
(+12.19)
Monday 23 December 2013
Live NFL - Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers Eurosport 1.40am
A farewell to Candlestick.
Lay the points.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -13 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Vernon Davis @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Colin Kaepernick @ 3.1
-------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (37-32, +4.40)
Totals (11-10, +0.33)
1st TD (8-51, +12.5)
Anytime TD (37-64, -5.14)
Lay the points.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -13 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Vernon Davis @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Colin Kaepernick @ 3.1
-------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (37-32, +4.40)
Totals (11-10, +0.33)
1st TD (8-51, +12.5)
Anytime TD (37-64, -5.14)
Sunday 22 December 2013
Live NFL - New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens Sky Sports 9.25pm
The Ravens have something of a sign over Brady and in any case, Baltimore are making their usual, head-scratching late season run to look dangerous here. They never look like blowing the doors off anyone offensively, but they've started to keep Flacco upright and this has given them some momentum.
However, as my readers know, my respect for Belichick and Tom Terrific knows no bounds and these guys don't do back-to-back losses. The Fins did a great job of taking Shane Vereen out of the game last week, but I expect what's left of the Pats' offense to be up for this game.
I'll take the points.
Pick: New England Patriots +2 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Julian Edelman @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Dennis Pitta @ 2.5; Shane Vereen @ 2.4
However, as my readers know, my respect for Belichick and Tom Terrific knows no bounds and these guys don't do back-to-back losses. The Fins did a great job of taking Shane Vereen out of the game last week, but I expect what's left of the Pats' offense to be up for this game.
I'll take the points.
Pick: New England Patriots +2 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Julian Edelman @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Dennis Pitta @ 2.5; Shane Vereen @ 2.4
Live NFL - New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers Sky Sports 6pm
The Saints pass the ball well, but can't defend the run. The Panthers run well, and defend the pass and most important, this showdown game is in Charlotte; the Saints don't travel.
Pick: Carolina Panthers -3 @ 1.87
Pick: 1st TD Cam Newton @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Jimmy Graham @ 2
-------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (35-32, +2.62)
Totals (11-10, +0.33)
1st TD (8-49, +14.5)
Anytime TD (35-63, -6.54)
Pick: Carolina Panthers -3 @ 1.87
Pick: 1st TD Cam Newton @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Jimmy Graham @ 2
-------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (35-32, +2.62)
Totals (11-10, +0.33)
1st TD (8-49, +14.5)
Anytime TD (35-63, -6.54)
Tuesday 17 December 2013
Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions 1.40am Eurosport
The return of Pitta, Flacco's unerring ability to do exactly the opposite of what you expect, the Ravens still in the wildcard race and Detroit's vulnerable secondary means I'll take a little of the 5.5 on offer. Again, though, this isn't a big bet, with a tough Lions' pass rush and Stafford to Megatron in a comfy and pacey Ford Field.
It doesn't help that a bonehead rookie called out Calvin Johnson earlier in the week!
Pick: Baltimore Ravens +5.5 @ 1.91
Pick: Over 48.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Calvin Johnson @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Torrey Smith @ 2.3
It doesn't help that a bonehead rookie called out Calvin Johnson earlier in the week!
Pick: Baltimore Ravens +5.5 @ 1.91
Pick: Over 48.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Calvin Johnson @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Torrey Smith @ 2.3
Sunday 15 December 2013
Live NFL - New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins 6pm Sky Sports
The toe over the line that nixed the Steelers' miracle play against the Fins last week cost me several hundred pounds, so I'm a little down on Miami, who have flip flopped favouritism. The Pats opened as 2.5 favourites, but people have smashed into Miami plus the points and the Dolphins now find themselves favoured by 2.5 in places.
The loss of Gronk is huge (and not just as a receiver) and the Dolphins bring pressure off the edge that'll have Tom Terrific on his toes, but I like Vereen and Ridley and the damage New England did to Miami's interior line last time and frankly, this looks like one of those typical Belichick/Brady situations where everyone is hammering them in the media and on the boards and they come through just to spite the doubters.
It's not a big bet, but I'll fade the home team SU.
Pick: New England Patriots @ 2.15
Pick: 1st TD Julian Edelman @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Shane Vereen @ 2
-------------------------------------------------------------
The loss of Gronk is huge (and not just as a receiver) and the Dolphins bring pressure off the edge that'll have Tom Terrific on his toes, but I like Vereen and Ridley and the damage New England did to Miami's interior line last time and frankly, this looks like one of those typical Belichick/Brady situations where everyone is hammering them in the media and on the boards and they come through just to spite the doubters.
It's not a big bet, but I'll fade the home team SU.
Pick: New England Patriots @ 2.15
Pick: 1st TD Julian Edelman @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Shane Vereen @ 2
-------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (34-31, +2.71)
Totals (11-9, +1.33)
1st TD (8-47, +16.5)
Anytime TD (35-61, -4.54)
(+16)
Totals (11-9, +1.33)
1st TD (8-47, +16.5)
Anytime TD (35-61, -4.54)
(+16)
Thursday 12 December 2013
Live NFL - San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos 1.25am Sky Sports
The Bolts had their full O line on the field last week and they looked impressive ... against the surrendered Giants. Ryan Mathews could put up numbers against a wilting run defense, but the likelihood is that Rivers will be throwing to keep up with the Denver offensive juggernaut.
Peyton Manning is 8-1 ATS on Thursdays (Peyton likes a big room) and with Tamme slotting in (geddit?) to replace Welker, Moreno, Demaryius and Julius Thomas will put up a ton against an underwhelming San Diego defense.
Pick: Denver Broncos -10 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Julius Thomas @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Ryan Mathews @ 2.5
-------------------------------------------------------------
Peyton Manning is 8-1 ATS on Thursdays (Peyton likes a big room) and with Tamme slotting in (geddit?) to replace Welker, Moreno, Demaryius and Julius Thomas will put up a ton against an underwhelming San Diego defense.
Pick: Denver Broncos -10 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Julius Thomas @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Ryan Mathews @ 2.5
-------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (34-30, +3.71)
Totals (11-9, +1.33)
1st TD (8-46, +17.5)
Anytime TD (34-61, -6.04)
(+16.5)
Totals (11-9, +1.33)
1st TD (8-46, +17.5)
Anytime TD (34-61, -6.04)
(+16.5)
Monday 9 December 2013
Live NFL - Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears 1.40am Eurosport
Romo, MNF, December. A toxic combo.
Two ropey defenses who should give up a ton of points, but when the smoke clears, I expect the Bears to come out on top. Just.
Pick: Chicago Bears @ 2
Pick: Over 47.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Alshon Jeffrey @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten @ 2.3
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Two ropey defenses who should give up a ton of points, but when the smoke clears, I expect the Bears to come out on top. Just.
Pick: Chicago Bears @ 2
Pick: Over 47.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Alshon Jeffrey @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten @ 2.3
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (33-30, +2.71)
Totals (10-9, +0.42)
1st TD (8-45, +18.5)
Anytime TD (33-61, -7.34)
(+14.29)
Totals (10-9, +0.42)
1st TD (8-45, +18.5)
Anytime TD (33-61, -7.34)
(+14.29)
Sunday 8 December 2013
Live NFL - Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers 9.25pm Sky Sports
These two mastodons will bellow and crash their way through the primeval swamp ... or at least play some tough football at Candlestick Park tonight in what should be a great game.
I don't like the injuries to the left side of the 49ers' offensive line, and Frank Gore looks restricted physically and tactically at the moment, so much will fall on Kaepernick to keep the chains moving and he's having a difficult second year. Although he has all his downfield weapons fit for the first time this season, this is a tough Seattle defense.
The Seahawks are one of the few teams to challenge San Francisco on the ground; Marshawn Lynch and Seattle's zone blocking scheme seems to give the 49ers real problems. The run game balances nicely with the progress Russell Wilson is making with his arm and while he took only limited shots last time against this D, I expect him to throw much more today. Wilson is putting up multi-TD games and Doug Baldwin looks a legit deep threat.
Again, I'll take the points.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks +2.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Russell Wilson @ 21
Pick: Anytime TD Doug Baldwin @ 4.33; Vernon Davis @ 2.2
I don't like the injuries to the left side of the 49ers' offensive line, and Frank Gore looks restricted physically and tactically at the moment, so much will fall on Kaepernick to keep the chains moving and he's having a difficult second year. Although he has all his downfield weapons fit for the first time this season, this is a tough Seattle defense.
The Seahawks are one of the few teams to challenge San Francisco on the ground; Marshawn Lynch and Seattle's zone blocking scheme seems to give the 49ers real problems. The run game balances nicely with the progress Russell Wilson is making with his arm and while he took only limited shots last time against this D, I expect him to throw much more today. Wilson is putting up multi-TD games and Doug Baldwin looks a legit deep threat.
Again, I'll take the points.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks +2.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Russell Wilson @ 21
Pick: Anytime TD Doug Baldwin @ 4.33; Vernon Davis @ 2.2
Live NFL - Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles 6pm Sky Sports
The Eagles have put a nice run together to become relevant, and Foles is playing out of his skin right now, but I have to believe that Stafford and Megatron are going to have their way against Philadelphia's pass defense and Reggie Bush will enjoy the fast turf and the home team's poor LBs
I expect lots of points.
Pick: Detroit Lions +3 @ 1.87
Pick: Over 53 @ 1.91*
Pick: 1st TD Reggie Bush @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Riley Cooper @ 2.4
*The weather notwithstanding LOL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
I expect lots of points.
Pick: Detroit Lions +3 @ 1.87
Pick: Over 53 @ 1.91*
Pick: 1st TD Reggie Bush @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Riley Cooper @ 2.4
*The weather notwithstanding LOL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (32-29, +2.71)
Totals (9-9, -0.49)
1st TD (8-44, +19.5)
Anytime TD (32-59, -6.54)
(+15.18)
Totals (9-9, -0.49)
1st TD (8-44, +19.5)
Anytime TD (32-59, -6.54)
(+15.18)
Thursday 5 December 2013
Live NFL - Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars 1.25am Sky Sports
Horrible.
Take the home dog.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Andre Johnson @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Cecil Shorts @ 4
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Take the home dog.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Andre Johnson @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Cecil Shorts @ 4
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (31-29, +1.76)
Totals (9-9, -0.49)
1st TD (8-43, +20.5)
Anytime TD (31-59, -9.54)
(+12.23)
Totals (9-9, -0.49)
1st TD (8-43, +20.5)
Anytime TD (31-59, -9.54)
(+12.23)
Monday 2 December 2013
Live NFL - New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks 1.40am Eurosport
I can't see past the Seahawks here. New Orleans are banged up on offense and, even allowing for the home team's suspensions, Seattle will have the personnel to cover the Saints downfield, even the sublime Jimmy Graham. If Ingram and Thomas can get rolling, it'll be more of a challenge, but this is a tough place to dominate.
The Saints have improved immeasurably on defense this year, but are poor against the run and that's a big problem with Marshawn Lynch smashing it up the middle. Wilson's protection problems have cleared up with his tackles getting fit, but he'll need to be on his game against a strong New Orleans pass rush.
The Hawks look a TD better.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -6 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Doug Baldwin @ 3.2
Sunday 1 December 2013
Live NFL - Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs 9.25pm Sky Sports
Another great looking game, but with Peyton Manning going up against a Chiefs' defense that has lost Justin Hall and probably Tamba Ali, I expect the Broncos to pick Kansas apart - a concern is Knowshon Moreno, who looks likely to miss the game, but Denver should have too many weapons.
On the other side of the ball, Alex Smith will be tested by a pass rush that is aggressive and effective and Jamaal Charles will have to step up against a defense he's had problems with in the past. The Kansas offense isn't really designed for a shoot out, so if they fall behind, it's unlikely Denver will cough up another big lead like last week.
Pick: Denver Broncos -6 @ 1.87
Pick: 1st TD Julius Thomas @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Denver D/ST @ 4.5
On the other side of the ball, Alex Smith will be tested by a pass rush that is aggressive and effective and Jamaal Charles will have to step up against a defense he's had problems with in the past. The Kansas offense isn't really designed for a shoot out, so if they fall behind, it's unlikely Denver will cough up another big lead like last week.
Pick: Denver Broncos -6 @ 1.87
Pick: 1st TD Julius Thomas @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Denver D/ST @ 4.5
Live NFL - Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles 6pm Sky Sports
Carson Palmer is quietly putting up some numbers, largely because the O line has come together, and it'll get a workout today against an Eagles' defensive front that can bring pressure, despite what the raw numbers suggest.
Philadelphia should struggle deep however, and Larry Fitzgerald will have a big game, particularly with the development of Michael Floyd as a foil. Andre Ellington and Rashard Mendenhall can change it up nicely.
Arizona have a deeper, more skilful defense and that gives them the edge here, even with Nick Foles hitting his straps and seemingly reviving a Chip Kelly offense that looked in danger of faltering in the NFL. It'll be a fascinating matchup, between Kelly and Todd Bowles, but the Cardinals have talent throughout.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals +3 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Michael Floyd @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Larry Fitzgerald @ 2.2
Philadelphia should struggle deep however, and Larry Fitzgerald will have a big game, particularly with the development of Michael Floyd as a foil. Andre Ellington and Rashard Mendenhall can change it up nicely.
Arizona have a deeper, more skilful defense and that gives them the edge here, even with Nick Foles hitting his straps and seemingly reviving a Chip Kelly offense that looked in danger of faltering in the NFL. It'll be a fascinating matchup, between Kelly and Todd Bowles, but the Cardinals have talent throughout.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals +3 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Michael Floyd @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Larry Fitzgerald @ 2.2
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (29-29, -0.01)
Totals (9-9, -0.49)
1st TD (8-41, +22.5)
Anytime TD (29-58, -10.94)
(+11.06)
ATS (29-29, -0.01)
Totals (9-9, -0.49)
1st TD (8-41, +22.5)
Anytime TD (29-58, -10.94)
(+11.06)
Thursday 28 November 2013
Live NFL - Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens 1.30am Sky Sports
After a horrible start, the Steelers are on something of a roll; Big Ben has stopped throwing picks and Kelvin Beachum's progression has helped to keep Roethlisberger upright. The team has become less run heavy and Antonio Brown shook off Haden last week as his QB executed a controlled, efficient gameplan. This turnaround seems to have encouraged the defense to improve making the Steelers plus the points look the value here.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Antonio Brown @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Brown @ 2.4; Jerrico Cotchery 3.6
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Antonio Brown @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Brown @ 2.4; Jerrico Cotchery 3.6
Live NFL - Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys 9.30pm Sky Sports
Oakland will struggle to stop Dallas' passing attack, but can keep control of the ground game. Again, the home team's premiere receiver should make hay.
The Cowboys give up the most ypg in football and the loss of Sean Lee seems to have oddly destabilised the whole unit. Matt McGloin has been efficient at QB for the Raiders and given Lee's continued absence, Oakland's run game should be able to keep McGloin in manageable third down situations.
There's still some 9.5 available ... grab it.
Pick: Oakland Raiders +9.5 @ 1.83
Pick: 1st TD Jason Witten @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Rashard Jennings @ 2.62
Pick: Total Receiving Yards Dez Bryant Over 88.5 @ 1.8
The Cowboys give up the most ypg in football and the loss of Sean Lee seems to have oddly destabilised the whole unit. Matt McGloin has been efficient at QB for the Raiders and given Lee's continued absence, Oakland's run game should be able to keep McGloin in manageable third down situations.
There's still some 9.5 available ... grab it.
Pick: Oakland Raiders +9.5 @ 1.83
Pick: 1st TD Jason Witten @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Rashard Jennings @ 2.62
Pick: Total Receiving Yards Dez Bryant Over 88.5 @ 1.8
Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions 5.30pm Sky Sports
Gobble gobble. Happy Thanksgiving to my thousands of American readers; happy Thursday to the rest of you working schmoes.
This game looks trappy: Detroit never wins on Thanksgiving, but there's no denying Rodgers' loss has gutted Green Bay and Megatron should go bonkers against a defense that can't stop anything through the air. Similarly, Reggie Bush has a chance to come off the bench and take advantage of a porous Packers' run D.
Eddie Lacy has stepped up after the loss of Rodgers, but it'll be tougher against the Lions who have become a nightmare to run on recently. However, the Lions' secondary is a mess; banged up and lacking talent, Matt Flynn should be able to find his receivers. Flynn isn't likely to hit 80 yard plays (watch it happen!) but he'll have lots of three wide sets to pick on a weak pass D.
I like Green Bay's chances more with Flynn under centre, but if Detroit can eliminate the mistakes that have cost them dear lately, they should be a TD better.
Pick: Detroit -6 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Calvin Johnson @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Jarrett Boykin @ 3.3
This game looks trappy: Detroit never wins on Thanksgiving, but there's no denying Rodgers' loss has gutted Green Bay and Megatron should go bonkers against a defense that can't stop anything through the air. Similarly, Reggie Bush has a chance to come off the bench and take advantage of a porous Packers' run D.
Eddie Lacy has stepped up after the loss of Rodgers, but it'll be tougher against the Lions who have become a nightmare to run on recently. However, the Lions' secondary is a mess; banged up and lacking talent, Matt Flynn should be able to find his receivers. Flynn isn't likely to hit 80 yard plays (watch it happen!) but he'll have lots of three wide sets to pick on a weak pass D.
I like Green Bay's chances more with Flynn under centre, but if Detroit can eliminate the mistakes that have cost them dear lately, they should be a TD better.
Pick: Detroit -6 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Calvin Johnson @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Jarrett Boykin @ 3.3
Monday 25 November 2013
Live NFL - San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins 1.40am Eurosport
The 49ers, banged up as they are, are at least a TD better.
A strong bet.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Frank Gore @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Vernon Davis @ 2.25
Sunday 24 November 2013
Live NFL - Denver Broncos at New England Patriots 1.25am Channel 4
The Pats as a home dog? Not since 2005.
Manning and the Broncos are a formidable offense, but it looks like it'll be cold and blustery in Foxboro. Much is being made of Peyton Manning in cold weather; he is 3-7 lifetime, with 11 touchdowns and 13 interceptions when the temperature is 32 degrees or lower at kickoff. However, Manning's game is a little different now as his arm strength has diminished, and he dinks and dunks his way down downfield hitting guys like Welker and Thomas over the middle.
Tom Brady has his offense complete now with the return of Vereen, so he'll put up points, but protection will be a problem. As with last week, the opposition can rush four, but I expect his receivers to have a big night, particularly Gronk, with Denver struggling all season to cover TEs, before looking outside.
The key may be the Pats' defense. Aqib Talib, Kyle Arrington, Alfonzo Dennard, Brandon Spikes and Steve Gregory are all carrying injuries and Peyton Manning will work them all hard tonight. The Denver run game can also mix it up nicely against a soft New England run D.
I'll take the favourite again, in what should be a shootout in MA.
Pick: Denver Broncos -1.5 @ 1.91
Pick: Over 53 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Ron Gronkowski @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Wes Welker @ 2; Julius Thomas @ 2.5
Manning and the Broncos are a formidable offense, but it looks like it'll be cold and blustery in Foxboro. Much is being made of Peyton Manning in cold weather; he is 3-7 lifetime, with 11 touchdowns and 13 interceptions when the temperature is 32 degrees or lower at kickoff. However, Manning's game is a little different now as his arm strength has diminished, and he dinks and dunks his way down downfield hitting guys like Welker and Thomas over the middle.
Tom Brady has his offense complete now with the return of Vereen, so he'll put up points, but protection will be a problem. As with last week, the opposition can rush four, but I expect his receivers to have a big night, particularly Gronk, with Denver struggling all season to cover TEs, before looking outside.
The key may be the Pats' defense. Aqib Talib, Kyle Arrington, Alfonzo Dennard, Brandon Spikes and Steve Gregory are all carrying injuries and Peyton Manning will work them all hard tonight. The Denver run game can also mix it up nicely against a soft New England run D.
I'll take the favourite again, in what should be a shootout in MA.
Pick: Denver Broncos -1.5 @ 1.91
Pick: Over 53 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Ron Gronkowski @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Wes Welker @ 2; Julius Thomas @ 2.5
Live NFL - Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants 9.25pm Sky Sports
Another team at home that needs to win. The Giants are on their second half surge and Dallas is just giving up too much real estate. The Cowboys' loss of Sean Lee will hurt with Andre Brown beginning to roll for the G-Men.
The caveat is that the Giants' win streak has been against a less than stellar collection, but nonetheless, New York are making strides on defense and if Manning continues to progress too, they can sneak past the Cowboys.
Pick: New York Giants -2.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Andre Brown @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Victor Cruz @ 2.1
The caveat is that the Giants' win streak has been against a less than stellar collection, but nonetheless, New York are making strides on defense and if Manning continues to progress too, they can sneak past the Cowboys.
Pick: New York Giants -2.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Andre Brown @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Victor Cruz @ 2.1
Live NFL - New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens 6pm Sky Sports
Two teams that always fool me.
Joe Flacco is hideously unpredictable (six-years, $120 million lol) and Geno Smith is beginning to look, well, just hideous.
Last week Smith threw three picks and completed just eight passes. It's not as if he has much to throw to, but still, it was horrible: Dean Pees will send everything. Chris Ivory figures to see a ton of the ball, but it shouldn't be enough against a decent Ravens stop unit. Look for Powell close in.
Flacco will also come under pressure behind a weak interior OL facing an inexperienced but eager pass rush from the Jets, led by Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson . Deeper, ex-Raven Ed Reed is attempting to shore up a pass D liable to giving up big plays and again, there's not a ton of options for Flacco beyond Torrey Smith, who will draw Cromartie, but at least it's a beatable matchup - if Flacco can hit him. Ray Rice finally woke up last week, but the Jets rank 1st against the run: no team has gone over 90 yards against New York on the ground this season.
It may be a turnover-laden, horror show, but I'll take the Ravens, if I must, on the basis that Flacco should be able to get it done if Baltimore are serious about progressing.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3 @ 1.83
Pick: 1st TD Bilal Powell @ 17
Pick: Anytime TD Torrey Smith @ 2.6
Pick: Total Turnovers Over 6 @ 4.75
Joe Flacco is hideously unpredictable (six-years, $120 million lol) and Geno Smith is beginning to look, well, just hideous.
Last week Smith threw three picks and completed just eight passes. It's not as if he has much to throw to, but still, it was horrible: Dean Pees will send everything. Chris Ivory figures to see a ton of the ball, but it shouldn't be enough against a decent Ravens stop unit. Look for Powell close in.
Flacco will also come under pressure behind a weak interior OL facing an inexperienced but eager pass rush from the Jets, led by Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson . Deeper, ex-Raven Ed Reed is attempting to shore up a pass D liable to giving up big plays and again, there's not a ton of options for Flacco beyond Torrey Smith, who will draw Cromartie, but at least it's a beatable matchup - if Flacco can hit him. Ray Rice finally woke up last week, but the Jets rank 1st against the run: no team has gone over 90 yards against New York on the ground this season.
It may be a turnover-laden, horror show, but I'll take the Ravens, if I must, on the basis that Flacco should be able to get it done if Baltimore are serious about progressing.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3 @ 1.83
Pick: 1st TD Bilal Powell @ 17
Pick: Anytime TD Torrey Smith @ 2.6
Pick: Total Turnovers Over 6 @ 4.75
Thursday 21 November 2013
Live NFL - New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons 1.25am Sky Sports
Stick a fork in the dirty birds, they're done.
Atlanta can't defend anything, let alone the New Orleans' O, and the other side of the ball looks just as bad, with Ryan either on his backside or trying to find what's left of his offensive personnel ... and missing.
Pick: New Orleans Saints -8.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Pierre Thomas @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Marques Colston @ 2.5; Harry Douglas @ 2.5
Atlanta can't defend anything, let alone the New Orleans' O, and the other side of the ball looks just as bad, with Ryan either on his backside or trying to find what's left of his offensive personnel ... and missing.
Pick: New Orleans Saints -8.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Pierre Thomas @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Marques Colston @ 2.5; Harry Douglas @ 2.5
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (24-26, -1.48)
Totals (8-9, -1.40)
1st TD (8-33, +29.5)
Anytime TD (26-52, -10.41)
(+16.21)
ATS (24-26, -1.48)
Totals (8-9, -1.40)
1st TD (8-33, +29.5)
Anytime TD (26-52, -10.41)
(+16.21)
Monday 18 November 2013
Live NFL - New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers 1.40am Eurosport
The Pats are getting fit on offense and Tom Terrific will react accordingly. The only fly in the ointment is the Panthers excellent pass rush - they can rush four tonight and keep Brady on his toes.
On defence, New England are banged up, but the return of Aqib Talib will stifle an already pretty mediocre passing offense. The Patriots have lost some of their key run stuffers (I'm not sure Isaac Sopoaga is the answer) but off a Bye week, I'll put my trust in Bill.
Pick: New England Patriots +3 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Danny Amendola @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Cam Newton @ 2.25
On defence, New England are banged up, but the return of Aqib Talib will stifle an already pretty mediocre passing offense. The Patriots have lost some of their key run stuffers (I'm not sure Isaac Sopoaga is the answer) but off a Bye week, I'll put my trust in Bill.
Pick: New England Patriots +3 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Danny Amendola @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Cam Newton @ 2.25
Sunday 17 November 2013
Live NFL Week 11
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals - 6pm Sky Sports
Dalton has started throwing picks, which is a little worrying, and the Browns have a more than capable defence; Haden taking away AJ Green could stifle the Bengals' offense across the board with Giovani Bernard and BenJarvus Green-Ellis unlikely to make much progress against the Browns' front seven. The Browns have struggled with backs catching, but that would require Jay Gruden to wake up and recognise Bernard's talent.
With Geno Atkins and Leon Hall missing on the other side of the ball, Cincy also look a little more vulnerable on D. Jason Campbell is solid if unspectacular, but he has some nice talent to throw to. A run game would help, but it's a shambles.
This is a tough call, and not a game to bet heavily, but I'll take the points and hope the visitors shade it.
Pick: Cleveland Browns +6 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Jordan Cameron @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Josh Gordon @ 2.5
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints - 9.25pm Sky Sports
Colin Kaepernick needs Vernon Davis to operate successfully in what has been a difficult season (the read option has nearly come out of the playbook) and although Davis is suiting up, he'll need to put in a solid game tonight to get the 49ers home. It's likely that San Francisco will lead with Frank Gore and the Saints haven't got great numbers against the run on the season. I expect Gore to have a big game, but the seemingly limited Kaepernick will be under pressure from a decent pass rush and is a liability at the moment.
The Saints have an overpowering passing attack, but worryingly for the opposition, the run game is beginning to show signs of life with Ingram and Thomas mixing it up nicely. That said, it'll be an aerial attack with multi-WR sets. The 49ers are banged up on defense and if Brees stays clean, I like Jimmy Graham, Colston, Moore to find room and Ingram, Thomas and Sproles to play a supporting role.
Pick: New Orleans Saints -3 @ 1.85
Pick: 1st TD Frank Gore @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Pieere Thomas @ 2.62
Dalton has started throwing picks, which is a little worrying, and the Browns have a more than capable defence; Haden taking away AJ Green could stifle the Bengals' offense across the board with Giovani Bernard and BenJarvus Green-Ellis unlikely to make much progress against the Browns' front seven. The Browns have struggled with backs catching, but that would require Jay Gruden to wake up and recognise Bernard's talent.
With Geno Atkins and Leon Hall missing on the other side of the ball, Cincy also look a little more vulnerable on D. Jason Campbell is solid if unspectacular, but he has some nice talent to throw to. A run game would help, but it's a shambles.
This is a tough call, and not a game to bet heavily, but I'll take the points and hope the visitors shade it.
Pick: Cleveland Browns +6 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Jordan Cameron @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Josh Gordon @ 2.5
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints - 9.25pm Sky Sports
Colin Kaepernick needs Vernon Davis to operate successfully in what has been a difficult season (the read option has nearly come out of the playbook) and although Davis is suiting up, he'll need to put in a solid game tonight to get the 49ers home. It's likely that San Francisco will lead with Frank Gore and the Saints haven't got great numbers against the run on the season. I expect Gore to have a big game, but the seemingly limited Kaepernick will be under pressure from a decent pass rush and is a liability at the moment.
The Saints have an overpowering passing attack, but worryingly for the opposition, the run game is beginning to show signs of life with Ingram and Thomas mixing it up nicely. That said, it'll be an aerial attack with multi-WR sets. The 49ers are banged up on defense and if Brees stays clean, I like Jimmy Graham, Colston, Moore to find room and Ingram, Thomas and Sproles to play a supporting role.
Pick: New Orleans Saints -3 @ 1.85
Pick: 1st TD Frank Gore @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Pieere Thomas @ 2.62
Friday 15 November 2013
Week 11 NFL Teaser
Colts
Eagles
Bengals
Seahawks
Giants
Saints
Cardinals
Broncos
(1-9, -2)
(1-9, -2)
*Someone asked if these were SU accas.
They're actually 6 point teaser cards, but can be moneyline accas too.
Thursday 14 November 2013
Live NFL - Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans 1.25am Sky Sports
The Colts stank it up last week and the Titans have got Fitzpatrick under center after losing Locker for the year, but Indianapolis look like the team most likely in this Divisional matchup.
In fact, I really like them as a three point dog!
Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Coby Fleener @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD TY Hilton @ 2.2; Shonn Green @3.5
In fact, I really like them as a three point dog!
Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Coby Fleener @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD TY Hilton @ 2.2; Shonn Green @3.5
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (24-24, +0.52)
Totals (8-9, -1.40)
1st TD (8-30, +32.5)
Anytime TD (25-47, -7.91)
(+23.71)
ATS (24-24, +0.52)
Totals (8-9, -1.40)
1st TD (8-30, +32.5)
Anytime TD (25-47, -7.91)
(+23.71)
Monday 11 November 2013
Live NFL - Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.40am Eurosport
The battle of the hideously dysfunctional franchises.
Schiano hasn't so much lost the dressing room, as burnt it to the ground, and Miami are dealing with a dickhead player who may take the HC and GM down with him.
As it is, Glennon isn't as bad as he looks, but he may never make the grade in this situation and anyway, the Buccaneers stink. Set against that, the fiasco in Miami has left an offensive line that lets their QB get sacked a lot, two starters down - look out for Gerald McCoy in the interior scaring the hell outta Tannehill.
Tampa Bay will stick Revis on Mike Wallace (the sideline geniuses have finally worked out that Revis is best utilised man to man) further limiting Tannehill, but making Brian Hartline an interesting TD pick.
Mike Glennon went 17-of-23 for 168 yards and two touchdowns last week against Seattle and each game sees him progress; add in Mike James on the ground, and the Buccaneers might just have enough.
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Mike James @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Brian Hartline @ 2.62
Tampa Bay will stick Revis on Mike Wallace (the sideline geniuses have finally worked out that Revis is best utilised man to man) further limiting Tannehill, but making Brian Hartline an interesting TD pick.
Mike Glennon went 17-of-23 for 168 yards and two touchdowns last week against Seattle and each game sees him progress; add in Mike James on the ground, and the Buccaneers might just have enough.
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Mike James @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Brian Hartline @ 2.62
Sunday 10 November 2013
Live NFL - Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers 9.25pm Sky Sports
I like this matchup for the Broncos. The Bolts are horrible on defense, and hopefully Manning has recovered during the bye week after losing his zip on the ball pre-break. Denver have just the sort of offense to give San Diego problems, with balance on the ground and a triggerman who can pick on some terrible coverage.
Philip Rivers is having a great season and the emerging Keenan Allen and veteran Antonio Gates anchor an excellent passing offense. Danny Woodhead works well in the role that Sproles used to fill. Unfortunately, the Denver front may challenge Rivers tonight and although the Broncos can be caught deep, it may not be enough to cover.
I expect points here, as Denver prosper and San Diego play catch-up. The loss of John Fox is difficult to judge, but with a leader like Peyton Manning under center, I expect the Broncos to cope.
Pick: Denver Broncos -7 @ 2
Pick: Over 57 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Knowshon Moreno @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Keenan Allen @ 2.25
Philip Rivers is having a great season and the emerging Keenan Allen and veteran Antonio Gates anchor an excellent passing offense. Danny Woodhead works well in the role that Sproles used to fill. Unfortunately, the Denver front may challenge Rivers tonight and although the Broncos can be caught deep, it may not be enough to cover.
I expect points here, as Denver prosper and San Diego play catch-up. The loss of John Fox is difficult to judge, but with a leader like Peyton Manning under center, I expect the Broncos to cope.
Pick: Denver Broncos -7 @ 2
Pick: Over 57 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Knowshon Moreno @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Keenan Allen @ 2.25
Live NFL - Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears 6pm Sky Sports
Naturally, Washington blew a big lead and my dazzling run goes on ...
Stafford to Megatron. Da Bears have actually covered Calvin Johnson pretty well in the past, but he's, well, megatron and the home team's secondary has struggled. The other problem for Chicago is their defensive front, which seems to have collapsed against the run. I expect to see lots of Bush (great stuff) and Bell. The Bears' pass rush looked much better last week, but the Lions don't give up many sacks, so Stafford should stay clean.
Cutler is back under center and it'll be interesting to see how comfortable he is; he's helped by the excellent protection afforded him by his offensive line and two outstanding wideouts whose size and strength will test Detroit's inconsistent corners. The Lions are susceptible to the big play downfield, so fans of the exotics might fancy a dabble.
This should be a good game, but I'll take the road team to just edge it.
Pick: Detroit Lions +1 @ 1,91
Pick: 1st TD Reggie Bush @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Alshon Jeffrey @ 2.62
Stafford to Megatron. Da Bears have actually covered Calvin Johnson pretty well in the past, but he's, well, megatron and the home team's secondary has struggled. The other problem for Chicago is their defensive front, which seems to have collapsed against the run. I expect to see lots of Bush (great stuff) and Bell. The Bears' pass rush looked much better last week, but the Lions don't give up many sacks, so Stafford should stay clean.
Cutler is back under center and it'll be interesting to see how comfortable he is; he's helped by the excellent protection afforded him by his offensive line and two outstanding wideouts whose size and strength will test Detroit's inconsistent corners. The Lions are susceptible to the big play downfield, so fans of the exotics might fancy a dabble.
This should be a good game, but I'll take the road team to just edge it.
Pick: Detroit Lions +1 @ 1,91
Pick: 1st TD Reggie Bush @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Alshon Jeffrey @ 2.62
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (21-24, -2.39)
Totals (8-8, -0.40)
1st TD (8-27, +35.5)
Anytime TD (25-44, -4.91)
(+27.8)
ATS (21-24, -2.39)
Totals (8-8, -0.40)
1st TD (8-27, +35.5)
Anytime TD (25-44, -4.91)
(+27.8)
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