Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals - 6pm Sky Sports
Dalton has started throwing picks, which is a little worrying, and the Browns have a more than capable defence; Haden taking away AJ Green could stifle the Bengals' offense across the board with Giovani Bernard and BenJarvus Green-Ellis unlikely to make much progress against the Browns' front seven. The Browns have struggled with backs catching, but that would require Jay Gruden to wake up and recognise Bernard's talent.
With Geno Atkins and Leon Hall missing on the other side of the ball, Cincy also look a little more vulnerable on D. Jason Campbell is solid if unspectacular, but he has some nice talent to throw to. A run game would help, but it's a shambles.
This is a tough call, and not a game to bet heavily, but I'll take the points and hope the visitors shade it.
Pick: Cleveland Browns +6 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Jordan Cameron @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Josh Gordon @ 2.5
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints - 9.25pm Sky Sports
Colin Kaepernick needs Vernon Davis to operate successfully in what has been a difficult season (the read option has nearly come out of the playbook) and although Davis is suiting up, he'll need to put in a solid game tonight to get the 49ers home. It's likely that San Francisco will lead with Frank Gore and the Saints haven't got great numbers against the run on the season. I expect Gore to have a big game, but the seemingly limited Kaepernick will be under pressure from a decent pass rush and is a liability at the moment.
The Saints have an overpowering passing attack, but worryingly for the opposition, the run game is beginning to show signs of life with Ingram and Thomas mixing it up nicely. That said, it'll be an aerial attack with multi-WR sets. The 49ers are banged up on defense and if Brees stays clean, I like Jimmy Graham, Colston, Moore to find room and Ingram, Thomas and Sproles to play a supporting role.
Pick: New Orleans Saints -3 @ 1.85
Pick: 1st TD Frank Gore @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Pieere Thomas @ 2.62
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