Sunday 24 November 2013

Live NFL - Denver Broncos at New England Patriots 1.25am Channel 4

The Pats as a home dog? Not since 2005.

Manning and the Broncos are a formidable offense, but it looks like it'll be cold and blustery in Foxboro. Much is being made of Peyton Manning in cold weather; he is 3-7 lifetime, with 11 touchdowns and 13 interceptions when the temperature is 32 degrees or lower at kickoff. However, Manning's game is a little different now as his arm strength has diminished, and he dinks and dunks his way down downfield hitting guys like Welker and Thomas over the middle.

Tom Brady has his offense complete now with the return of Vereen, so he'll put up points, but protection will be a problem. As with last week, the opposition can rush four, but I expect his receivers to have a big night, particularly Gronk, with Denver struggling all season to cover TEs, before looking outside.

The key may be the Pats' defense. Aqib Talib, Kyle Arrington, Alfonzo Dennard, Brandon Spikes and Steve Gregory are all carrying injuries and Peyton Manning will work them all hard tonight. The Denver run game can also mix it up nicely against a soft New England run D.


I'll take the favourite again, in what should be a shootout in MA.

Pick: Denver Broncos -1.5 @ 1.91
Pick: Over 53 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Ron Gronkowski @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Wes Welker @ 2; Julius Thomas @ 2.5 

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