NFL - San Diego (4-2) at Kansas City (3-3)

ESPN, Tuesday November 1st, 12.30am

The riddle of Rivers; what’s out of whack? His mechanics, his below par receivers, is he injured? Well, his numbers have been poor all season and I have a suspicion it’s a combination of all three and that tonight, some elements may come back together.

I had previously dismissed the theory that the lockout has adversely affected some teams – but I’m beginning to think I was wrong, and teams that had either brought a lot of new faces in, or where injury had prevented players from getting into synch, have taken time to come good this season; witness the ‘new’ Philadelphia.

I’m not going to suggest that was the only factor in the Eagles’ astonishing transformation, but it may have played, and it could happen here. Rivers has missed a fully fit Gates, and similarly Vincent Jackson must begin to get sharper (he was awful LTO) It’s not good that Malcolm Floyd has gone down, but Kansas don’t have a fearsome pass rush and have a secondary that misses Eric Berry badly, so this game may allow the San Diego offense to find some rhythm.

The Bolts can attack Kansas on the ground too (the Chiefs have given up 9^th most rushing YPG) and Mathews must get going to take the strain if Rivers is still misfiring; look for Tolbert close in.

Matt Cassel has been as uninspiring as Rivers, but he does have the formidable Dwayne Bowe out wide. Antoine Cason was violated by the Jets and if he starts (there’s no guarantee he will) he reflects a pass defense that can be beaten deep and struggles at safety. However, San Diego ranks 4^th in YPG given up to the pass, so Cassel will need to work for his yards.

The run game has been difficult for Kansas and is frankly a bit of a mess, but Jackie Battle looks like the way forward, he’s a big unit who likes to play a little smash mouth and the Chargers do sometimes struggle to bottle up the run.

In truth, by the numbers, there’s not a great deal between these two, but I think the slight edge San Diego have statistically reflects Kansas playing closer to their full potential than the bolts have managed so far, and I’ll take them to improve tonight and cover.

Pick: Chargers -3 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1^st TD Mike Tolbert @ 9.0; 800; 8/1

Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Gates @ 2.00; 100; Evens

NFL - Dallas (3-3) at Philadelphia (2-4)

Dallas (3-3) at Philadelphia (2-4)

Channel 4, Monday October 31st, 12.30am

Could there be life in Philly? Well, maybe, but tonight may not be the night.

The really interesting matchup here is the Eagles’ O line, up against the ever-improving Cowboys’ pass rush.  Dallas have come on leaps and bounds on the defensive side and Ryan has really got them rolling – which means Vick must keep upright and show some of that new composure he’s supposed to have found, because if the Cowboys have a weakness, it’s vertically. If Vick can hit DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin deep, the Eagles have got a chance.

The other way of blunting the pass rush is to use LeSean McCoy catching out of the backfield; Philadelphia won’t get much joy on the ground against a defense that ranks 3^rd in YPC, so the change up is vital as a safety valve in the face of what will doubtless be a succession of blitzes. The problem is, Dallas have been tough against that option too.

Romo has seen his role change subtly as the season has gone on; with less of a gun-slinging approach adopted by Jason Garrett, and although I don’t see DeMarco Murray having anything like the game he had last week, the Eagles do give up yards on the ground. The Philadelphia pass rush has got well, and the Dallas O line has some issues, which all points to Romo handing it off a fair amount tonight, or looking for Witten on quick passes.

Like my earlier feeling about opposing a Tebow led offense, I’m going to take the points here. When QBs like Vick come under pressure, they’re prone to turnovers (over his last four games, Vick has 5 TDs, but 7 INTs) and that will kill you in the NFL and even if that doesn’t, the Dallas D can be the difference.

Pick: Cowboys +3 @ 200; 100; Evens

Pick: 1^st TD Michael Vick @ 12; 1100; 11/1

Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten @ 2.63; 162; 13/8

NFL - Detroit (5-2) at Denver (2-4)

Sky Sports, Sunday October 30th, 8pm

It looks as though the Detroit train has eased up to the buffers, but I think some Denver coal may relight the boiler.

My primary concern in my season preview of the Lions was always Stafford, and although that focussed on his physical fragility, the pressure he has come under behind a weak line, has meant that his offensive powers have also suffered recently, with poor recognition and inaccurate throws, and that’s a big problem when your main threat is  Calvin Johnson.

Von Miller will be trying to get to Stafford all day and given the level the rookie LB has been playing at, he’s liable to get there – then Lions’ fans need to pray that he doesn’t knock Stafford out of the game. Megatron and Pettigrew should be able to profit from what is (outside Champ Bailey) a poor Denver secondary and Stafford is going to need his favourite targets to get it done, because he has no ground game to help him out, as Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams aren’t getting it done.

Now, Tim Tebow. I have to confess, I’m not convinced; he had a rough time last week, then came through at the end, and the world (well, Denver) seemed to put aside any doubts. Consider this though, that was against the Miami defense; Ndamukong Suh and his buddies are going to come after him with rather more punch tonight, and Tebow had better be on his toes.

Willis McGahee is out, and that means Timmy will likely be running even more (like Detroit, the help off the bench in the shape of Moreno is poor) and that makes me nervous because it plays to my prejudices against guys with questionable mechanics under centre who rely on natural guile to get out of trouble; it often means broken plays and eventually; catastrophe.

I’m going to play against Tebow.

Pick: Lions -3 @ 1.8; -125; 4/5

Pick: 1^st TD Brandon Pettigrew @ 13; 1200; 12/1

Pick: Anytime TD Tim Tebow @ 2.05; 105; 21/20

NFL - Minnesota (1-6) at Carolina (2-5)

Sky Sports, Sunday October 30th, 5pm

Sky Sports, Sunday October 30th, 5pm

I like the Panthers in this one. Although Adrian Peterson may go for enough yards to qualify for the London 2012 marathon, Carolina should have enough to see off the Vikings.

Cam Newton is an extraordinary player who is progressing nicely, improving his accuracy and reads, protecting possession, while still maintaining his elusiveness and danger when he extends a play. The Vikings have a capable pass rush, so Newton’s O line will need to keep him upright, but they’ve come together well after losing Jeff Otah.

Newton should be able to get after the Vikes’ secondary and Steve Smith, reinvigorated by the young QB, could have a big day; his YPC this season stands at an incredible 21 and he’ll doubtless get a couple of chances to strike from a long way out. Jonathan Stewart looks as though he’s beginning to show signs of life too and although Minnesota defends the run well (but gave up 4.5 YPC last week to the Packers) he can lend balance to an already powerful offense.

Christian Ponder looked good last week and the Panthers aren’t ripping it up on defense, where they rank 27th against the run and 30th against the pass, so he can put up numbers in this game, particularly behind Peterson. Carolina will need to pressure him, but have only got to the opposition QB twelve times this season.

However, the Panthers will have dissected his game during the week, and Ponder has to deal with some injuries to an already nicked up line and his most effective receiver in a pretty average set of wideouts is severely limited with damaged ribs.

Peterson is the real danger here for the Panthers, because if he gets rolling and allows Ponder the time as the Carolina D sets up for the run, the Vikes could take this. For those of you who play in-running, it is critical that the Panthers get out in front, forcing Ponder to throw to catch up and taking some sting out of ‘All-Day’ by limiting his touches.

I’ll give the points, but stay on the key number.

Pick: Panthers -3 @ 1.8; -125; 4/5

Pick: 1st TD Cam Newton @ 7.0; 600; 6/1

Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: Adrian Peterson Rushing Yards Over 102.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

MLB – Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals - Game 7

Saturday October 29th 1am

ESPN America

Starting Pitchers

Texas: Harrison (0-1, 7.36 ERA)

St. Louis: Carpenter (1-0, 2.77 ERA)

Where to go here? I’m not sure the standard analysis by the numbers has any relevance after last night’s astonishing game – I’m going instead with the NL advantage. If ever a game was designed for National League ‘small ball’; this is it.

Still, the tale of the tape? Carpenter doesn’t do well on three day’s rest, whereas Harrison has been poor down the stretch and into the post-season. The Cards must be surging and Texas are surely wondering what on earth they have to do to win it all.

Paddy Power go 1.83 St. Louis and that looks tempting; consider this, ‘The home team has won the last 8 World Series Game 7s. The last road team to win a World Series Game 7 was the Pirates over the Orioles in 1979.’ Damn them.

Don’t smash in at the price, Harrison is that pesky leftie in the ointment. Instead, and strictly to add more excitement (as if that were possible) take last night’s hero to do the unthinkable and homer during this deciding game.

Pick: Cardinals @ 1.83; -120; 5/6

Pick: David Freese to homer at anytime @ 9.5; 8500; 17/2