MLB - Detroit at Texas

Sunday October 16^th 1am

ESPN America

Starting Pitchers

Detroit: Scherzer (16-9, 4.32 ERA)

Texas: Holland (17-5, 3.92 ERA)

Holland got pulled after only two and two thirds innings in his last outing, giving up three runs on four hits to Detroit. His numbers L3 are 1.74/4.97 WHIP/ERA and he has a 4.67 ERA at home.

Scherzer’s numbers L3 are rather better, including a quality start in this series LTO (although he took the loss) and he’s 5-2 all-time against Texas with 6 QS; Scherzer is 1-0 with a 4.76 ERA in three starts against Texas in 2011.

Texas are on the brink here, and I liked them some time ago at 8/1 to win it all, but I can’t take Holland at 1.67, whose 17-5 season record is due in no small part to the run support he has received; he led the AL this year at an amazing 7.64 per game. If the Detroit bats show any signs of life, they can reach him for a few tonight and Scherzer just needs to keep it in the park and get it to Benoit and Valverde.

Scherzer is too attractive at 2.45, so I’ll have a little faith and back Detroit to take this all the way ... and lose it in seven. I like the Overs here too, with neither pitcher filling me with confidence in Arlington.

Pick: Tigers @ 2.45; 145; 29/20

Pick: Over 9 @ 2.00; 100; Evens