Sunday 30 October 2011

NFL - Dallas (3-3) at Philadelphia (2-4)


Dallas (3-3) at Philadelphia (2-4)
Channel 4, Monday October 31st, 12.30am

Could there be life in Philly? Well, maybe, but tonight may not be the night.

The really interesting matchup here is the Eagles’ O line, up against the ever-improving Cowboys’ pass rush.  Dallas have come on leaps and bounds on the defensive side and Ryan has really got them rolling – which means Vick must keep upright and show some of that new composure he’s supposed to have found, because if the Cowboys have a weakness, it’s vertically. If Vick can hit DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin deep, the Eagles have got a chance.

The other way of blunting the pass rush is to use LeSean McCoy catching out of the backfield; Philadelphia won’t get much joy on the ground against a defense that ranks 3rd in YPC, so the change up is vital as a safety valve in the face of what will doubtless be a succession of blitzes. The problem is, Dallas have been tough against that option too.

Romo has seen his role change subtly as the season has gone on; with less of a gun-slinging approach adopted by Jason Garrett, and although I don’t see DeMarco Murray having anything like the game he had last week, the Eagles do give up yards on the ground. The Philadelphia pass rush has got well, and the Dallas O line has some issues, which all points to Romo handing it off a fair amount tonight, or looking for Witten on quick passes.

Like my earlier feeling about opposing a Tebow led offense, I’m going to take the points here. When QBs like Vick come under pressure, they’re prone to turnovers (over his last four games, Vick has 5 TDs, but 7 INTs) and that will kill you in the NFL and even if that doesn’t, the Dallas D can be the difference.

Pick: Cowboys +3 @ 200; 100; Evens

Pick: 1st TD Michael Vick @ 12; 1100; 11/1
Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten @ 2.63; 162; 13/8

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