Indianapolis (0-3) at Tampa Bay (2-1)

NFL

MNF

Indianapolis (0-3) at Tampa Bay (2-1)

ESPN, Tuesday October 4th, 1am

Indy have got the Painter in, and it promises to be less a Michelangelo than a Pollock. Whether that justifies giving them 10.5 points though, is questionable.

Painter is going to be behind a horrible O line and Tampa knocked about Atlanta’s front last week, which does not bode well. The Bucs’ are young (by and large) and hungry up front and have talented corners – so even if Painter gets it out, his undoubtedly capable receivers are going up against a solid secondary.

I expect Painter to hand the ball off a lot in this game and it may be that Joseph Addai (and possibly even Delone Carter) will have some joy; any optimism should be tempered by the fact that the Tampa D limited Michael Turner to just 18 yards on 14 carries.

On offense, Freeman will struggle to overcome a pass rush as aggressive as the Colts’. Freeman’s game resembles Roethlisberger's and Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney gave him fits. I anticipate that the Bucs' primary attack will come on the ground in the shape of LeGarrette Blount. Key absentees in the Indianapolis run D can make them vulnerable and if the pass game struggles as it should, LeGarrette Blount will see the rock a lot.

This could be a horrible, error strewn game, but I’m not giving up that many points on MNF. However, this is not a strong bet.

Pick: Colts +10.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: First TD Joseph Addai @ 9.00; 800; 8/1

Pick: AnytimeTD Joseph Addai @ 2.25; 125; 5/4