Sunday 2 October 2011

New England (2-1) at Oakland (2-1)

NFL

New England (2-1) at Oakland (2-1)
Sky Sports 2, 9.15pm

New England couldn’t stop the Dagenham Girl Pipers, and this week what was notionally a defensive unit is decimated by injury; Albert Haynesworth and cornerbacks Leigh Bodden and Ras-I Dowling have been ruled out and Mike Wright was ruled out on Friday. Shaun Ellis and Jerod Mayo have missed time.

Oakland will go to McFadden first, who could have a huge game; New England have been gashed by running back, particularly those catching too, and Vince Wilfork will have his work cut out to contain McFadden. If they establish the run, it may allow Campbell to find Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford deep against a Pats’ secondary giving up huge yardage this season.

The Oakland D line has been solid enough, but their secondary is poor, and that spells disaster against Tom Brady, who is torching everyone through the air. 1327 yards and 11 TDs after three games is frankly ridiculous – Brady is untouchable. The Raiders are particularly soft up the middle, an area Brady has exploited mightily and Gronkowski (Tom’s new best friend) and Welker will do terrible things to the man coverage that the Raiders favour. The only chance the Raiders have, is sacking Brady to slow him down, but the Pats aren’t giving up any sacks (well, three so far).

This is a tough one; there should be an avalanche of points as the defensive shortcomings and injuries combine with two offensive players at the peak of their powers – but if McFadden can be held in check, or Brady attacked, then it’s likely that will decide the game.

On balance, it’s Brady, but it’s a bet I’d avoid to be honest.

Pick: Patriots -6 @ 1.95; -105; 20/21

Pick: First TD Wes Welker @ 7.0; 700; 6/1
Pick: Anytime TD Denarius Moore @ 2.0; 100; Evens

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