Double digit spreads are practically always an automatic play on the
dog, especially on national television, but I can't roll with the Browns
tonight.
Cleveland don't have a pass rush likely to bother Flacco much and
with Joe Haden absent, the Browns are soft against the pass, because
Buster Skrine and Dimitri Patterson aren't getting it done. Baltimore
will attack that weak secondary with three wide sets (Torrey Smith's
speed, even as #3 receiver, can exploit the inevitable mismatches) and
shouldn't have any problem moving the ball. Ray Rice may run amok
against a run defense that ranks 22nd, as long as Cam Cameron gives him
the rock.
On offense the Browns are going to struggle with Brandon Weeden
throwing the ball; he's liable to be inaccurate and his receivers aren't
the most talented bunch, even if they manage to catch the ball (Greg
Little has been killing me in fantasy). On the ground, the excellent
Trent Richardson will have to run against a Ravens' front that ranks
5th; he'll be more effective catching out of the backfield, but it'll be
a tough game for him either way.
I'll reluctantly give the points in what may be a blowout.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens -11.5 @ 1.95
Pick: Cleveland Trios Sell @ 340 (Sporting Index)
Pick: 1st TD Torrey Smith @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jacoby Jones @ 2.8
Thursday 27 September 2012
Tuesday 25 September 2012
NFL - Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks BBC Red Button 1.30am
This should be a tough go for the Pack; the Seahawks have a solid
defense, CenturyLink Field is a difficult place to go and Green Bay's
offense has yet to come to life.
Seattle have an excellent secondary with pace and size at the corners. Up front, Chris Clemons and Red Bryant will cause all sorts of problems for a Packers O line that has struggled to protect Rodgers or open up any sort of run game. This means Green Bay will have to attack those corners and so far the Packers' talented receiving corps have not run their routes well and put the ball on the floor too often.
If the Packers face a challenge on offense, the same can be said for the home team. The options deep aren't great and there's no sign of the coaches looking to Russell Wilson to throw, so it's critical that they keep him out of third and long situations: they rely instead on Marshawn Lynch to smash it up the middle.
Green Bay didn't stop the run effectively in week one but showed some progress against Chicago, however Lynch will be a challenge. Seattle struggle in pass protection and one aspect of Green Bay's defense that has showed signs of life is the pass rush and I anticipate they'll get after Wilson - the Pack certainly won't want their secondary tested.
This is a difficult pick and the price isn't great. The Seahawks' win against Dallas shifted the line a couple of points to a field goal, but 1.8+ is skinny. That said, I can't invest in the Seattle offense just yet and the greater scope for improvement rests with the visitors who should win.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -3 @ 1.87
Pick: Buy Green Bay Sacks @ 3.1
Pick: 1st TD Jermichael Finley @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Jermichael Finley @ 2.20
Seattle have an excellent secondary with pace and size at the corners. Up front, Chris Clemons and Red Bryant will cause all sorts of problems for a Packers O line that has struggled to protect Rodgers or open up any sort of run game. This means Green Bay will have to attack those corners and so far the Packers' talented receiving corps have not run their routes well and put the ball on the floor too often.
If the Packers face a challenge on offense, the same can be said for the home team. The options deep aren't great and there's no sign of the coaches looking to Russell Wilson to throw, so it's critical that they keep him out of third and long situations: they rely instead on Marshawn Lynch to smash it up the middle.
Green Bay didn't stop the run effectively in week one but showed some progress against Chicago, however Lynch will be a challenge. Seattle struggle in pass protection and one aspect of Green Bay's defense that has showed signs of life is the pass rush and I anticipate they'll get after Wilson - the Pack certainly won't want their secondary tested.
This is a difficult pick and the price isn't great. The Seahawks' win against Dallas shifted the line a couple of points to a field goal, but 1.8+ is skinny. That said, I can't invest in the Seattle offense just yet and the greater scope for improvement rests with the visitors who should win.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -3 @ 1.87
Pick: Buy Green Bay Sacks @ 3.1
Pick: 1st TD Jermichael Finley @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Jermichael Finley @ 2.20
Monday 24 September 2012
NFL - New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens Ch4 1.30am
New England have re-discovered defense; they're tough against the run
and the pass, showing second versus the run (2.3 YPC) and third against
the pass (5.7 YPA).
The former is tough on the Ravens, who may want to take the ball out of Joe Flacco's hands after last week's performance on his way to a 66.8 passer rating. Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower can bring pressure and with the state of the Raven's O line, it could be a long night for Flacco. Ray Rice will anchor the offense and if he doesn't dominate, Baltimore will struggle.
Tom Brady had a tough time last week, but the Cards are rolling and losing Hernandez will have unbalanced the game plan. Nobody is better at re-gathering their team than Belichick and Brady and I expect the Pats to be sharp on offense again. If the Eagles can test Baltimore through the air, then New England certainly can and with no Suggs to slow Brady and a secondary that has problems all over the field, the assorted Patriot deep targets should prosper.
I'll take the points.
Pick: New England Patriots +3 @ 1.91 (Corals)
Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Wes Welker @ 2.8
The former is tough on the Ravens, who may want to take the ball out of Joe Flacco's hands after last week's performance on his way to a 66.8 passer rating. Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower can bring pressure and with the state of the Raven's O line, it could be a long night for Flacco. Ray Rice will anchor the offense and if he doesn't dominate, Baltimore will struggle.
Tom Brady had a tough time last week, but the Cards are rolling and losing Hernandez will have unbalanced the game plan. Nobody is better at re-gathering their team than Belichick and Brady and I expect the Pats to be sharp on offense again. If the Eagles can test Baltimore through the air, then New England certainly can and with no Suggs to slow Brady and a secondary that has problems all over the field, the assorted Patriot deep targets should prosper.
I'll take the points.
Pick: New England Patriots +3 @ 1.91 (Corals)
Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Wes Welker @ 2.8
Sunday 23 September 2012
NFL - Houston Texans at Denver Broncos Sky Sports 9.15pm
I'm looking forward to this game; Houston rely on a low-risk, rush-heavy
offense, but Denver have been tough on the run (119 rushing yards at a
2.8 YPC) and that means Schaub will have to look for Andre Johnson more
downfield, but beyond Johnson, the pickings are slim. Add in the first
real test for Houston's offensive front (Schaub is notoriously skittish
in the pocket) and a lot of people's fancy to go all the way will be
severely tested at Mile High - always a difficult place to go.
Denver, or rather Peyton Manning, started dreadfully last week, and the offense still looks like it needs fine tuning. That's not good news against a Texans' defense that is well organised and tough. If Peyton struggled against the Hawks, Houston may stymie him.
I'll give the points.
Pick: Houston Texans -1.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Andre Johnson @ 8.0
Pick: Anytime TD Eric Decker @ 2.4
Denver, or rather Peyton Manning, started dreadfully last week, and the offense still looks like it needs fine tuning. That's not good news against a Texans' defense that is well organised and tough. If Peyton struggled against the Hawks, Houston may stymie him.
I'll give the points.
Pick: Houston Texans -1.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Andre Johnson @ 8.0
Pick: Anytime TD Eric Decker @ 2.4
NFL - New York Jets at Miami Dolphins Sky Sports 6pm
It might be a little early to be looking at Tebow, but Sanchez had
better get his chit together. After starting at a gallop, the offense
disappeared last week and Sanchez was horrible, only managing to pad his
stats in garbage time.
The books aren't too sure here; the line started out as far as Jets -5, closed up to -1 and has drifted back to -2, but really, if the Jets have any ambition, they should put the Fins away today.
Sanchez is likely to need to throw because Miami have closed down the run nicely and Shonn Greene looks pedestrian. Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill should get some looks today and I fancy one of them to have a big game, particularly with Keller out. Outside of Cameron Wake, there isn't a really threatening pass rush from Miami, so last week's protection issues shouldn't arise.
Ryan Tannehill is as advertised: he's a game manager who needs to keep it error free and give his team a chance. Brian Hartline looks like he's emerging as Tannehill's favourite target and he'll get a real test today against the formidable Jets' secondary, but he's a big guy with good hands and will be a handful.
Reggie Bush will be the foundation of the home O, and has shown good form in the past against the visitors - he may be maturing into the player he was supposed to be, but the Jets can concentrate on him, confident that Revis (who looks like he'll play) and his buddies can handle the rest.
Miami really shouldn't have enough on either side of the ball, but I'm backing one of the most inconsistent QBs in the game.
Pick: NY Jets -2 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Stephen Hill @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Santonio Holmes @ 2.10
The books aren't too sure here; the line started out as far as Jets -5, closed up to -1 and has drifted back to -2, but really, if the Jets have any ambition, they should put the Fins away today.
Sanchez is likely to need to throw because Miami have closed down the run nicely and Shonn Greene looks pedestrian. Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill should get some looks today and I fancy one of them to have a big game, particularly with Keller out. Outside of Cameron Wake, there isn't a really threatening pass rush from Miami, so last week's protection issues shouldn't arise.
Ryan Tannehill is as advertised: he's a game manager who needs to keep it error free and give his team a chance. Brian Hartline looks like he's emerging as Tannehill's favourite target and he'll get a real test today against the formidable Jets' secondary, but he's a big guy with good hands and will be a handful.
Reggie Bush will be the foundation of the home O, and has shown good form in the past against the visitors - he may be maturing into the player he was supposed to be, but the Jets can concentrate on him, confident that Revis (who looks like he'll play) and his buddies can handle the rest.
Miami really shouldn't have enough on either side of the ball, but I'm backing one of the most inconsistent QBs in the game.
Pick: NY Jets -2 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Stephen Hill @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Santonio Holmes @ 2.10
Thursday 20 September 2012
NFL - New York Giants at Carolina Panthers Sky Sports 1am
I hate capping the Giants, particularly in the first month of the
season. Last week was a good example; they started like a junior flag
football team and ended like unstoppable world champions.
Cons? Short week, a tough Carolina on the road, Bradshaw and Nicks out, problems at tackle that may expose their QB and a secondary that wasn't too hot to start with, has missing bodies. Pros? Cruz can dominate, Andre Brown may be up to the job against a poor home run D and Manning broke all sorts of records after starting badly last week.
Carolina need to attack that Giants' secondary, but Cam Newton and the ground game did some damage last week, so it'll be a significant chance of approach. They can still pound the rock as New York aren't a brick wall up front (although Keith Rivers is back to help) but they need to feed Steve Smith; they surely will.
Sorting through that lot, it has to be Carolina.
Pick: Carolina Panthers -3 @ 2.00
Pick: 1st TD Steve Smith @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.20
Cons? Short week, a tough Carolina on the road, Bradshaw and Nicks out, problems at tackle that may expose their QB and a secondary that wasn't too hot to start with, has missing bodies. Pros? Cruz can dominate, Andre Brown may be up to the job against a poor home run D and Manning broke all sorts of records after starting badly last week.
Carolina need to attack that Giants' secondary, but Cam Newton and the ground game did some damage last week, so it'll be a significant chance of approach. They can still pound the rock as New York aren't a brick wall up front (although Keith Rivers is back to help) but they need to feed Steve Smith; they surely will.
Sorting through that lot, it has to be Carolina.
Pick: Carolina Panthers -3 @ 2.00
Pick: 1st TD Steve Smith @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.20
Monday 17 September 2012
NFL - Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers Ch4 1.30am
The 49ers are too tough against the run, too quick up front on D and
Alex Smith (a player I've always run down) is playing smart, effective,
error-free football.
Detroit's O line is suspect and their secondary is decimated (Chris Houston, Louis Delmas and Dwight Bentley are all out) so Megatron will have to have an all-time game for the Lions to cover.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -7 @ 2.00
Pick: 1st TD SF Defense @ 26
Pick: Anytime TD Vernon Davis @ 2.00
Detroit's O line is suspect and their secondary is decimated (Chris Houston, Louis Delmas and Dwight Bentley are all out) so Megatron will have to have an all-time game for the Lions to cover.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -7 @ 2.00
Pick: 1st TD SF Defense @ 26
Pick: Anytime TD Vernon Davis @ 2.00
Sunday 16 September 2012
NFL - Washington Redskins at St Louis Rams Sky Sports 9.15pm
Is RG3 the real deal? Well, he may get tested rather more seriously
tonight as the Rams can at least mount a pass rush and, although the
Redskins O line played well last week, it isn't a bunch to invest in
blindly. The St Louis defense has capable players deep too and so
Griffin will be throwing against a much better secondary - it'll be a
fascinating battle. Michael Brockers will be out or limited and Alfred
Morris should benefit as the Rams struggled against Kevin Smith last
week. If the Redskins establish the run, watch out.
The Rams will also face an offensive challenge against a Washington stop unit that shows real promise. Unfortunately, Bradford is seated behind an O line that has personnel missing and has been weak against the pass rush, so he's likely to be on his toes. Steven Jackson offers some respite, but again, the 'Skins are strong at LB. Bradford dinkin' an' dunkin' ain't gonna feed the baby.
Pick: Washington Redskins -3.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD RG3 @ 15 (PP)
Pick: Anytime TD Danny Amendola @ 2.5
The Rams will also face an offensive challenge against a Washington stop unit that shows real promise. Unfortunately, Bradford is seated behind an O line that has personnel missing and has been weak against the pass rush, so he's likely to be on his toes. Steven Jackson offers some respite, but again, the 'Skins are strong at LB. Bradford dinkin' an' dunkin' ain't gonna feed the baby.
Pick: Washington Redskins -3.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD RG3 @ 15 (PP)
Pick: Anytime TD Danny Amendola @ 2.5
NFL - New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers Sky Sports 6pm
Difficult to know which of these teams, who both misfired badly in Week 1, will have ironed out some of the kinks.
Both teams need to get their ground game going; Cam Newton and DeAngelo Williams did nothing last week and the returning Jonathan Stewart had better signal a shift back to what got it done last year, as the Panthers just don't have the offensive line to rely on Newton's arm alone and they need to burn the clock against an offense as potent as New Orleans'. That said, not only did the Bucs put the QB under pressure all day, the Carolina front didn't do their runners any favours.
Similarly, the Saints need to get their run game rolling in order to give Drew Brees the room to operate - the Carolina defense struggled to contain the Tampa running game, so there's a flicker of hope.
The Saints traditionally don't travel well, and their secondary is an injury riddled shambles, so Steve Smith (if he goes) should prosper. Of course, the New Orleans D is faced with the same type of QB as last week and that either means they've been to school on the gameplan, or they'll be vulnerable again.
I'm going to take the points.
Pick: Carolina Panthers +3 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Darren Sproles @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.00
Both teams need to get their ground game going; Cam Newton and DeAngelo Williams did nothing last week and the returning Jonathan Stewart had better signal a shift back to what got it done last year, as the Panthers just don't have the offensive line to rely on Newton's arm alone and they need to burn the clock against an offense as potent as New Orleans'. That said, not only did the Bucs put the QB under pressure all day, the Carolina front didn't do their runners any favours.
Similarly, the Saints need to get their run game rolling in order to give Drew Brees the room to operate - the Carolina defense struggled to contain the Tampa running game, so there's a flicker of hope.
The Saints traditionally don't travel well, and their secondary is an injury riddled shambles, so Steve Smith (if he goes) should prosper. Of course, the New Orleans D is faced with the same type of QB as last week and that either means they've been to school on the gameplan, or they'll be vulnerable again.
I'm going to take the points.
Pick: Carolina Panthers +3 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Darren Sproles @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.00
Sunday 9 September 2012
NFL - San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers Sky Sports 9.30pm
The Pack were sketchy on defense last year and in the off-season they
drafted Nick Perry in the first round to energise the pass rush, but
they still look soft at the corners. The 49ers had problems with getting
the passing game rolling and went out and got receivers; my reservation
here is that I'm not sure I want Alex Smith passing more!
The one thing you can guarantee is that Green Bay will be strong on offense and the clash between the Rodgers-led O and the vaunted San Francisco D is mouthwatering. I wonder if we're going to see the replacement refs really tested in this one? If Aaron Rodgers calls it, it's going to be a brave ref who doesn't oblige with a late flag or two.
However, as long as the Green Bay O line keeps him upright, I can't resist Rodgers giving up less than a TD at home.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -5.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Jermichael Finley @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Frank Gore @ 2.10
The one thing you can guarantee is that Green Bay will be strong on offense and the clash between the Rodgers-led O and the vaunted San Francisco D is mouthwatering. I wonder if we're going to see the replacement refs really tested in this one? If Aaron Rodgers calls it, it's going to be a brave ref who doesn't oblige with a late flag or two.
However, as long as the Green Bay O line keeps him upright, I can't resist Rodgers giving up less than a TD at home.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -5.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Jermichael Finley @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Frank Gore @ 2.10
NFL - 2012 Season Preview
NFC East
I’ll start with the division containing my team, the Redskins.
Washington are a work in progress, the Giants were a 7-7 team in Week 16 and staged miracle comebacks (I’m not buying that again) and, despite Wednesday’s showing, Dallas will flatter to deceive.
This leaves the Eagles, who have a chance to redeem last year’s performance. If Vick stays upright, they’re the bet.
Pick: Eagles @ 2.5
NFC South
Saints or Falcons? Two offensive juggernauts, but the whole bountygate fiasco and the reinstated players make me think New Orleans are going to be hungrier than ever.
Pick: Saints @ 2.38
NFC North
Fuggedabahtit.
Packers @ 1.5
NFC West
Remember when Alex Smith flared briefly in the QB firmament? Well those days are gone and while that tough defense will carry them so far, I’m going to take the Seahawks and their rookie QB to take this division. They can get it done on offense and their young defense will be eager to impose themselves. Crucially, their schedule will be a big help.
Pick: Seahawks @ 4.5
AFC East
Pats. Brady is aces and they’ve made a couple of nice moves on the defensive side.
Pick: Patriots @ 1.32
AFC South
Another division where one team will dominate. The Houston Texans are difficult to oppose and are worth a look to win it all.
Pick: Texans @ 1.29
AFC North
This Division is usually a punch up between Baltimore and Pittsburgh and that should still be the case this year, although it’s a competitive group with Cincinnati yapping in the background, unfortunately their second half schedule is terrifying and will stop them dead.
The Ravens also have a tough schedule (and who knows how no huddle will work out?) so I’m going to nominate the old(er) men in the picture. Pittsburgh just get it done, somehow.
Pick: Steelers @ 2.38
AFC West
If Peyton’s neck holds up, Denver can take this; however, I have my doubts and his inability to throw the deep ball or force it into holes that his peerless football talent sees may cause trouble. I just have to see more of him. The Bolts can get stuffed; until they fire their HC they’re going nowhere and Rivers knows it – he’s starting to look less sharp.
I’m going to go with Kansas in this one. The Chiefs are getting people fit, drafted some interesting personnel and have a young D and capable offense. It’s a stretch but …
Pick: Chiefs @ 4.5
------------------------------------------------
AFC Champions Patriots @ 4.00
NFC Champions Packers @ 4.33
Superbowl Packers @ 7.5; Texans @ 9.5
Spreads
A couple of schedule bets:
Regular Season Wins
I’ve mentioned it already, the Bengals hit a brick wall at half way.
Pick: Cincinnati Under 8 @ 2.00
Lost in the AFC East shakeup, I see the Bills taking advantage of a soft schedule.
Pick: Buffalo Over 8 @ 2.00
I’ll start with the division containing my team, the Redskins.
Washington are a work in progress, the Giants were a 7-7 team in Week 16 and staged miracle comebacks (I’m not buying that again) and, despite Wednesday’s showing, Dallas will flatter to deceive.
This leaves the Eagles, who have a chance to redeem last year’s performance. If Vick stays upright, they’re the bet.
Pick: Eagles @ 2.5
NFC South
Saints or Falcons? Two offensive juggernauts, but the whole bountygate fiasco and the reinstated players make me think New Orleans are going to be hungrier than ever.
Pick: Saints @ 2.38
NFC North
Fuggedabahtit.
Packers @ 1.5
NFC West
Remember when Alex Smith flared briefly in the QB firmament? Well those days are gone and while that tough defense will carry them so far, I’m going to take the Seahawks and their rookie QB to take this division. They can get it done on offense and their young defense will be eager to impose themselves. Crucially, their schedule will be a big help.
Pick: Seahawks @ 4.5
AFC East
Pats. Brady is aces and they’ve made a couple of nice moves on the defensive side.
Pick: Patriots @ 1.32
AFC South
Another division where one team will dominate. The Houston Texans are difficult to oppose and are worth a look to win it all.
Pick: Texans @ 1.29
AFC North
This Division is usually a punch up between Baltimore and Pittsburgh and that should still be the case this year, although it’s a competitive group with Cincinnati yapping in the background, unfortunately their second half schedule is terrifying and will stop them dead.
The Ravens also have a tough schedule (and who knows how no huddle will work out?) so I’m going to nominate the old(er) men in the picture. Pittsburgh just get it done, somehow.
Pick: Steelers @ 2.38
AFC West
If Peyton’s neck holds up, Denver can take this; however, I have my doubts and his inability to throw the deep ball or force it into holes that his peerless football talent sees may cause trouble. I just have to see more of him. The Bolts can get stuffed; until they fire their HC they’re going nowhere and Rivers knows it – he’s starting to look less sharp.
I’m going to go with Kansas in this one. The Chiefs are getting people fit, drafted some interesting personnel and have a young D and capable offense. It’s a stretch but …
Pick: Chiefs @ 4.5
------------------------------------------------
AFC Champions Patriots @ 4.00
NFC Champions Packers @ 4.33
Superbowl Packers @ 7.5; Texans @ 9.5
Spreads
A couple of schedule bets:
Regular Season Wins
I’ve mentioned it already, the Bengals hit a brick wall at half way.
Pick: Cincinnati Under 8 @ 2.00
Lost in the AFC East shakeup, I see the Bills taking advantage of a soft schedule.
Pick: Buffalo Over 8 @ 2.00
Wednesday 5 September 2012
NFL - Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants Sky Sports 1.30am
Two teams I found tough last year, but Dallas are banged up and should find the champeens too strong tonight.
Dallas have made to some moves in the off-season to address their problems over the top on Defense, but Mike Jenkins may not go, and their big draft move for Morris Claiborne has been torpedoed by his injury problems; the Giants' depth out wide may see him tested. Orlando Scandrick is vulnerable too and this lack of established corners may be fatal.
Tom Coughlin will smash it up the middle as usual (look for David Wilson, he's got some moves) but Dallas can stop the run and Manning torched the Cowboys last year, so it's likely through the air that the home team will dominate.
There are caveats; I like DeMarco Murray a lot and if starts finding room he may give Dallas options deep, the Giants are also struggling at left tackle (never good news for a QB) and the front five generally look more suspect than I'd like with DeMarcus Ware and his buddies coming looking for Manning.
Similarly, the Cowboys need to keep Romo upright, he was sacked nine times when these teams met twice last season and so far the Cowboys' O line hasn't looked very stable, particularly the interior. The Giants have some personnel missing in the secondary and Romo has put up numbers against them in the past, but unfortunately the Dallas receiving corps has a number of injuries and off-field issues and isn't looking as dynamic as it should.
I don't like the fact that everyone is coming for the Giants (oppose the herd is the best bet in football!) but I'll give the points.
Pick: Giants -3.5 @ 2.00
Pick: 1st TD Victor Cruz @ 9.00
Pick: Anytime TD Hakeem Nicks @ 2.10
Dallas have made to some moves in the off-season to address their problems over the top on Defense, but Mike Jenkins may not go, and their big draft move for Morris Claiborne has been torpedoed by his injury problems; the Giants' depth out wide may see him tested. Orlando Scandrick is vulnerable too and this lack of established corners may be fatal.
Tom Coughlin will smash it up the middle as usual (look for David Wilson, he's got some moves) but Dallas can stop the run and Manning torched the Cowboys last year, so it's likely through the air that the home team will dominate.
There are caveats; I like DeMarco Murray a lot and if starts finding room he may give Dallas options deep, the Giants are also struggling at left tackle (never good news for a QB) and the front five generally look more suspect than I'd like with DeMarcus Ware and his buddies coming looking for Manning.
Similarly, the Cowboys need to keep Romo upright, he was sacked nine times when these teams met twice last season and so far the Cowboys' O line hasn't looked very stable, particularly the interior. The Giants have some personnel missing in the secondary and Romo has put up numbers against them in the past, but unfortunately the Dallas receiving corps has a number of injuries and off-field issues and isn't looking as dynamic as it should.
I don't like the fact that everyone is coming for the Giants (oppose the herd is the best bet in football!) but I'll give the points.
Pick: Giants -3.5 @ 2.00
Pick: 1st TD Victor Cruz @ 9.00
Pick: Anytime TD Hakeem Nicks @ 2.10
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)