Nobody goes into Lambeau and wins ....
Well, maybe. This mouthwatering shootout will come down to who can put at least a little hitch in the giddy up of the two struttin' QBs. I prefer the Pats' chances.
The upgrades to the New England secondary, their form and Uncle Bill's press man coverage gives them an edge that Dom Capers seems to lack against truly elite offenses.
Possibly close, maybe a point, so I'll take what's on offer.
Pick: New England Patriots +2.5 @ 2.1
Pick: 1st TD Julian Edelman @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon LaFell @ 2.2
Sunday 30 November 2014
Live NFL - New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers 6pm Sky Sports
What the hell, Dallas?
I like Pittsburgh in this position. Their defense has looked weak of late, but when Polamalu is out, they really struggle. Thing is, Troy's back - as are a number of other key players on that side of the ball for the Steelers.
Drew Brees and the Saints' O are as potent as ever (although Pittsburgh can bring pressure) but they're really looking poor defensively and I expect Le'Veon Bell to make hay and Big Ben to successfully attack a sub-par secondary.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Le'Veon Bell @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Marques Colston @ 2.5
I like Pittsburgh in this position. Their defense has looked weak of late, but when Polamalu is out, they really struggle. Thing is, Troy's back - as are a number of other key players on that side of the ball for the Steelers.
Drew Brees and the Saints' O are as potent as ever (although Pittsburgh can bring pressure) but they're really looking poor defensively and I expect Le'Veon Bell to make hay and Big Ben to successfully attack a sub-par secondary.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Le'Veon Bell @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Marques Colston @ 2.5
Thursday 27 November 2014
Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys 9.30pm Sky Sports
OK, mom is crying in the kitchen and pop has thrown out uncle Joe. It's time to get serious.
America's team at home to the Eagles.
The Philly pass rush will get after Tony Romo, and the D is tough against the run, but this is a defense that gave up 300 yards to Zach Mettenberger and they are prone to big plays at the corners. DeMarco Murray is a back who can punch his way through a brick wall and Dez Bryant will torch the secondary at least once.
Expect McCoy to have a big game and Sanchez to throw a couple of picks, but Dallas should be at least a field goal better.
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD LeSean McCoy @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten @ 2.2
America's team at home to the Eagles.
The Philly pass rush will get after Tony Romo, and the D is tough against the run, but this is a defense that gave up 300 yards to Zach Mettenberger and they are prone to big plays at the corners. DeMarco Murray is a back who can punch his way through a brick wall and Dez Bryant will torch the secondary at least once.
Expect McCoy to have a big game and Sanchez to throw a couple of picks, but Dallas should be at least a field goal better.
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD LeSean McCoy @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten @ 2.2
Live NFL - Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions 5.30pm Sky Sports
Gobble gobble!
The Bears stink. They stink so bad even Matt Stafford can beat them by two scores.
Sell the stationwagon, give the points.
Pick: Detroit Lions -7.5 @ 2.0
Pick: 1st TD Calvin Johnson @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Detroit D/ST @ 3.75
The Bears stink. They stink so bad even Matt Stafford can beat them by two scores.
Sell the stationwagon, give the points.
Pick: Detroit Lions -7.5 @ 2.0
Pick: 1st TD Calvin Johnson @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Detroit D/ST @ 3.75
Monday 24 November 2014
Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints 1.30am Eurosport
I'm leaning towards the visitors here - a small wager straight up.
I don't like the absentees/injuries to the Saints' receivers and they stink on defense. Forsett could have a big game and if that takes the heat off Flacco, he can get it done. The problem is, Flacco can also play as if it's his first game as a High School walk on, so as I say, a small bet.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens @ 2.25
Pick: 1st TD Justin Forsett @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Torrey Smith @ 2.3
I don't like the absentees/injuries to the Saints' receivers and they stink on defense. Forsett could have a big game and if that takes the heat off Flacco, he can get it done. The problem is, Flacco can also play as if it's his first game as a High School walk on, so as I say, a small bet.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens @ 2.25
Pick: 1st TD Justin Forsett @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Torrey Smith @ 2.3
Live NFL - Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants 1.30am Channel 4
Not a game to get involved in.
Eli Manning can be so awful (like he was last week) that he's unbackable, and with the defensive side of the ball a shambles, the Giants should be faded.
That said, with an injured Romo, in a cold and wet New York, I'm nervous about ignoring the home team on national TV.
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -4.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 8 (the only value in this game)
Pick: Anytime TD Rashad Jennings @ 2
Eli Manning can be so awful (like he was last week) that he's unbackable, and with the defensive side of the ball a shambles, the Giants should be faded.
That said, with an injured Romo, in a cold and wet New York, I'm nervous about ignoring the home team on national TV.
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -4.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 8 (the only value in this game)
Pick: Anytime TD Rashad Jennings @ 2
Sunday 23 November 2014
Live NFL - Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos 9.25pm Sky Sports
I like the Dolphins pass rush; I don't like the Broncos' O line.
I love Miami as road dogs; I don't like the Denver injuries.
I like Lamar Miller on the ground (and Tannehill extending plays); I don't like the way Denver looked on run D last week.
I like Jarvis Landry ... a lot!
Denver can see Kansas over the horizon.
I'll take the points.
Pick: Miami Dolphins +7 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Mike Wallace @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Jarvis Landry @ 3.25
I love Miami as road dogs; I don't like the Denver injuries.
I like Lamar Miller on the ground (and Tannehill extending plays); I don't like the way Denver looked on run D last week.
I like Jarvis Landry ... a lot!
Denver can see Kansas over the horizon.
I'll take the points.
Pick: Miami Dolphins +7 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Mike Wallace @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Jarvis Landry @ 3.25
Live NFL - Detroit Lions at New England Patriots 6pm Sky Sports
Stafford has started passing and hoping with megatron back. Last week saw blind throws under pressure (his protection is weak) and he looks ready to throw a pick at any moment. Today, Johnson lands on Revis island and that doesn't bode well. Joique Bell could see the ball alot, but he's banged up and it may not be enough to salvage the offense.
Tom Brady has weapons all over the field in the passing game and Jonas Gray looks good in the backfield. Detroit is tough to run on, but the Pats have too much on this side of the ball.
Pick: New England Patriots -7 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon LaFell @ 2.3
Tom Brady has weapons all over the field in the passing game and Jonas Gray looks good in the backfield. Detroit is tough to run on, but the Pats have too much on this side of the ball.
Pick: New England Patriots -7 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon LaFell @ 2.3
Friday 21 November 2014
NFL - Bet Results
ATS 27 - 28
OU 5 - 4
1st TD 7 - 46
Anytime TD 18 - 37
Teaser/Acca 0 - 11
I'll put up the numbers to level stakes over the weekend.
My poorest season ever ... honest!
Thursday 20 November 2014
Live NFL - Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders 1.25am Sky Sports
The Raiders can't run the ball (not that it matters, as Kansas don't give up much on the ground) and that's too heavy a load for Derek Carr to carry - he'll be forced into long third downs and the Raiders will stumble too often.
Alex Smith is a passenger for the Chiefs, and the Raiders can bring pressure, but Jamaal Charles will move the chains and I expect him and possibly Knile Davis (late on) to take it to the house.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 @ 2.0
Pick: 1st TD Jamaal Charles @ 5
Pick: Anytime TD Knile Davis @ 3.3
Alex Smith is a passenger for the Chiefs, and the Raiders can bring pressure, but Jamaal Charles will move the chains and I expect him and possibly Knile Davis (late on) to take it to the house.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 @ 2.0
Pick: 1st TD Jamaal Charles @ 5
Pick: Anytime TD Knile Davis @ 3.3
Monday 17 November 2014
Live NFL - Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans 1.30am Eurosport
Troy Polamalu is still out and that makes me very nervous because he's the beating heart of the Steeler's defense. Last week Pittsburgh's D just couldn't get off the field and it became a shambles.
However, the Titans are pish and I just can't see Big Ben's boys ballsing it up again. Lots of run against a poor front and then deep shots against a rotten secondary and giving less than a TD is too much to resist.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD LeVeon Bell @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Bishop Sankey @ 2.5
However, the Titans are pish and I just can't see Big Ben's boys ballsing it up again. Lots of run against a poor front and then deep shots against a rotten secondary and giving less than a TD is too much to resist.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD LeVeon Bell @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Bishop Sankey @ 2.5
Sunday 16 November 2014
Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers 9.25pm Sky Sports
Well, after Chip Kelly threw Dom Capers badly last year, it'll be interesting to see how Green Bay deal with a resurgent Mark Sanchez in the galloping offense.
Philadelphia have great numbers on defense, but that secondary isn't a reflection of those glittering stats - they're beatable and there is nobody better at picking apart a ropey secondary than Aaron Rodgers, particularly on his home field.
Look for some big plays deep in the face of the Philly blitz ....
Pick: Green Bay Packers -5.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Jordy Nelson @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jeremy Maclin @ 2.1
Philadelphia have great numbers on defense, but that secondary isn't a reflection of those glittering stats - they're beatable and there is nobody better at picking apart a ropey secondary than Aaron Rodgers, particularly on his home field.
Look for some big plays deep in the face of the Philly blitz ....
Pick: Green Bay Packers -5.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Jordy Nelson @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jeremy Maclin @ 2.1
Live NFL - Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs 6pm Sky Sports
I don't like:
The 'hawks on the road.
The beast's fitness status.
Russell Wilson's form.
Seattle's focus with big Divisional games coming up.
With a different trigger man under center (hell, with me throwing the pill) I'd put my mortgage on the Chiefs.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Jamaal Charles @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Travis Kelce @ 2.62
The 'hawks on the road.
The beast's fitness status.
Russell Wilson's form.
Seattle's focus with big Divisional games coming up.
With a different trigger man under center (hell, with me throwing the pill) I'd put my mortgage on the Chiefs.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Jamaal Charles @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Travis Kelce @ 2.62
Thursday 13 November 2014
Live NFL - Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins 1.30am Sky Sports
The Miami defense has looked very solid this year and they're racking up the sacks. The Bills may struggle to move the chains with the fins pass rush swarming through and Orton had a poor game last week, missing throws and making some poor decisions.
Ryan Tannehill didn't enjoy his first go at the Bills this year and Buffalo also has a more than competent pass rush. To make matters worse, Ja'Wuan James will have to move to Tannehill's blind side to replace the injured Branden Albert. Tannehill will need to get the ball out quickly to Mike Wallace and his buddies if they're going to win.
I'll take the more complete defense at home. Just.
Pick: Miami Dolphins -4.5 @ 2
Pick: Over 5.5 Total Sacks @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Miami D/ST @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Charles Clay @ 3
Ryan Tannehill didn't enjoy his first go at the Bills this year and Buffalo also has a more than competent pass rush. To make matters worse, Ja'Wuan James will have to move to Tannehill's blind side to replace the injured Branden Albert. Tannehill will need to get the ball out quickly to Mike Wallace and his buddies if they're going to win.
I'll take the more complete defense at home. Just.
Pick: Miami Dolphins -4.5 @ 2
Pick: Over 5.5 Total Sacks @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Miami D/ST @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Charles Clay @ 3
Monday 10 November 2014
Live NFL - Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles 1.30am Eurosport
If the Panthers could keep Cam Newton clean, the visitors' chances would be markedly better (fairly obviously!) but the OL just can't manage it; the Eagles may feast on him tonight. This has seemed to drain the confidence from the rest of the passing game which in ordinary circumstances might look forward to facing down this Eagles defense. There's no run game to talk of, so it looks pretty bleak on that side of the ball.
Unfortunately, the Carolina defense is almost as shambolic and even with Sanchez replacing the injured Foles, the Eagles should be able to move the ball. LeSean McCoy will be licking his lips running against an awful Panthers' run D.
I'll give the points.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -7 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Jeremy Maclin @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Kelvin Benjamin @ 2.38
Unfortunately, the Carolina defense is almost as shambolic and even with Sanchez replacing the injured Foles, the Eagles should be able to move the ball. LeSean McCoy will be licking his lips running against an awful Panthers' run D.
I'll give the points.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -7 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Jeremy Maclin @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Kelvin Benjamin @ 2.38
Sunday 9 November 2014
Live NFL - Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers 1.30am Channel 4
The Bears look like a team on the edge and when Jay Cutler drops his head, all looks lost. Chicago particularly struggle on the defensive side where they look all at sea - that's not good news against Aaron Rodgers.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -7.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Eddie Lacy @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Alshon Jeffrey @ 2
Pick: Green Bay Packers -7.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Eddie Lacy @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Alshon Jeffrey @ 2
NFL - Week 10 Mug Acca
To win:
Cowboys
Saints
Ravens
Steelers
Broncos
Cardinals
Seahawks
Packers
Eagles
9.5
Cowboys
Saints
Ravens
Steelers
Broncos
Cardinals
Seahawks
Packers
Eagles
9.5
Live NFL - New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks 9.25pm Sky Sports
Seattle have looked out of synch lately with problems along the O line and under-performing wide receivers making Russell Wilson look poor. He looked particularly bad last week and there's no doubt the Giants can bring some pressure. On the plus side, New York can't stop the run and are banged up at the corners.
The Giants look like they'll have no run game (against a team that strangles the ground game anyway) but they should be able to throw against a team who haven't got to the QB this season and are carrying injuries deep.
I hate capping the Giants, but I'm looking for a high scoring game as New York have to throw to keep up and a back door cover.
Pick: New York Giants +9.5 @ 1.95
Pick: Over 44.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Odell Beckham @ 2.8
The Giants look like they'll have no run game (against a team that strangles the ground game anyway) but they should be able to throw against a team who haven't got to the QB this season and are carrying injuries deep.
I hate capping the Giants, but I'm looking for a high scoring game as New York have to throw to keep up and a back door cover.
Pick: New York Giants +9.5 @ 1.95
Pick: Over 44.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Odell Beckham @ 2.8
Live NFL - Dallas Cowboys @ Jacksonville Jaguars 6pm Channel 4
Weeden might be under center which, after Andy Dalton proved just what a huge handicap a terrible QB performance can be on Thursday night, does not bode well for the Cowboys. However, Tony Romo seems intent on playing and it is the Jags after all, Dallas must be a TD better.
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -7 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 6.0
Pick: Anytime TD Denard Robinson @ 2.25
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -7 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 6.0
Pick: Anytime TD Denard Robinson @ 2.25
Thursday 6 November 2014
Live NFL - Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals 1.30am Sky Sports
These teams would kill for a run game, as neither defense seems capable of stopping anything on the ground, however, of the two, Cleveland is struggling the most. Terrance West could have a good game against this D, but frankly, I doubt it'll be enough. This puts the onus on Brian Hoyer - and he has key personnel in the pass game missing.
The Browns will blitz all night and Dalton needs to establish some sort of ground game with Jeremy Hill who has shown great form of late, in order to slow the pressure. Getting the ball out quickly, to the returned A J Green and Mohamed Sanu should do some damage against a Browns secondary that hasn't really produced; Joe Haden is a shutdown corner, but Buster Skrine is all over the place and giving up big plays.
I'll give the points.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Mohamed Sanu @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Terrance West @ 2.8
The Browns will blitz all night and Dalton needs to establish some sort of ground game with Jeremy Hill who has shown great form of late, in order to slow the pressure. Getting the ball out quickly, to the returned A J Green and Mohamed Sanu should do some damage against a Browns secondary that hasn't really produced; Joe Haden is a shutdown corner, but Buster Skrine is all over the place and giving up big plays.
I'll give the points.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Mohamed Sanu @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Terrance West @ 2.8
Sunday 2 November 2014
Live NFL - Denver Broncos at New England Patriots 9.25pm Sky Sports
Belichick's New England's usual approach to Manning's Denver is to make the Broncos win it on the ground. Last year Denver took huge gains running but came up short, this year however, with New England struggling deep, and receivers in such good form, I expect Manning to take the challenge and beat the Pats with his arm, while mixing it up with Ronnie Hillman on the ground.
The Broncos pass rush will come after Brady, but with the Gronk back on the strength there'll be some challenges for Denver's LB corps, especially if Tom Terrific looks as happy in the pocket as he did last week.
Denver edges a great game. I expect points.
Pick: Denver Broncos -3 @ 1.95
Pick: Over 52.5 @ 2.0
Pick: 1st TD Ronnie Hillman @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Wes Welker @ 3.4
The Broncos pass rush will come after Brady, but with the Gronk back on the strength there'll be some challenges for Denver's LB corps, especially if Tom Terrific looks as happy in the pocket as he did last week.
Denver edges a great game. I expect points.
Pick: Denver Broncos -3 @ 1.95
Pick: Over 52.5 @ 2.0
Pick: 1st TD Ronnie Hillman @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Wes Welker @ 3.4
Live NFL - Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys 6pm Sky Sports
If I'm a Cowboy, I don't like Romo this banged up and Arizona's ability to stop the run, because Dallas may need to lean on DeMarco Murray in this one.
Meanwhile, Andre Ellington continues to impress and Carson Palmer has big play options downfield. I expect lots of blitzing of Romo and that should stifle the home team just enough for the Cards to take this.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Andre Ellington @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Larry Fitzgerald @ 2.38
Meanwhile, Andre Ellington continues to impress and Carson Palmer has big play options downfield. I expect lots of blitzing of Romo and that should stifle the home team just enough for the Cards to take this.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Andre Ellington @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Larry Fitzgerald @ 2.38
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