NFL - NY Giants (11-7) at San Francisco (14-3)

Sky Sports, Sunday 11.30pm

This is a weird pick, because instead of my usual blether, all I’m going say is, ‘go with the hot hand’!

There are plenty of reasons to favour a defense as aggressive and capable as San Francisco’s, but the Giants are plugged into the force.

As long as they aren’t too caught up in the hype (the money has come for them, and everyone is tipping them) and stay focussed – in Manning Jr. we trust.

Pick: Giants +2 @ 2.00; 100; Evens

Pick: 1^st TD Hakeem Nicks @ 9.0; 800; 8/1

Pick: Anytime TD Michael Crabtree@ 2.5; 150; 6/4

Pick: Total Game Rushing Yards Under 210.5 @ 1.95; -105; 20/21

NFL - Baltimore (13-4) at New England (14-3)

Sky Sports, Sunday 8pm

This was supposed to be the year that the old adage, ‘Defenses win championships’ was going to be put to rest – the two hottest offenses were carrying the worst defenses, nothing could stop the inexorable march of the Packers and the Patriots; that all came to a shuddering halt last week.

It turns out defense does still matter and that should be good news for a Ravens’ team that are routinely very strong on that side of the ball. However, I think this game will turn on ...

Brady was brutal last week against a Denver D that had made Tebow look a lot better than he really was – can Tom be as effective against a much tougher stop unit? Terrell Suggs and his buddies must get home against a New England O line that is less than stellar, but a QB who is still difficult to sack.

Is Brady’s shoulder ok? If that shoulder is vulnerable, you can bet the Ravens will attack it.

Is Ed Reed fit? He’ll go, but he really needs to be firing and get after Brady and the ball – it’s Reed and Lardarius Webb who are the ball hawks. Reed had six tackles, three broken up passes and an interception against the Houston Texans. In his 10-season career, Reed has eight interceptions in the postseason.

Can Ray Rice get rolling? If Rice prospers, then the weakest link in the Ravens’ O, Joe Flacco, traditionally plays well – it also keeps Brady off the field. Vince Wilfork jams the run nicely and key members of the New England D line are getting fit; Jerod Mayo,  Brandon Spikes and Patrick Chung can make it difficult for Rice.

Bill Belichick. I flip flopped on the Pats last week and when I look back at that pick, it was poor.  Few HCs in the NFL are as tactically astute and Belichick’s ability to adapt his gameplan is equally impressive. Belichick will complicate Rice’s life this evening, but it will also mean that any weakness in the Baltimore D will be picked apart – witness Aaron Hernandez in the backfield last week.

Aaron Hernandez and the Gronk – unstoppable. The former will appear in the backfield again (look for New England getting the run going with exotic packages, the Ravens have given up yards on the ground recently) and both are targets that dominate their coverage.

The rest of the Pats’ receivers – that’s a lot of talent to keep in check and Tom will spread the love.

Can the Ravens keep up? If New England get out in front early and you’re betting IR, be careful. The thought of Flacco trying to catch up with fairly limited options downfield (I still expect Torrey Smith to make a big play or two, because Flacco must take the occasional deep shot) is not a pretty one.

This will be close, because although Baltimore don’t have as potent an offense, Ray Rice can carry that aspect himself (in the 2010 playoffs, Rice went 83 yards for a TD on the first play from scrimmage and took the Pats for 159/2 on the day) and New England are relatively weak on defense, but the Pats know which element they have to concentrate on.

However, the home team should have just too much variety on offense and with New England available at Evens giving up a TD, they look value.

Pick: Pats -7 @ 200; 100; Evens (VC)

Pick: 1^st TD Wes Welker @ 8.0; 700; 7/1

Pick: Anytime TD Aaron Hernandez @ 2.1; 110; 11/10

Pick: Torrey Smith Total Receiving Yards Over 55.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

NFL - NY Giants (10-7) at Green Bay (15-1)

Sky Sports, Sunday 9.30pm

I wrote a couple of weeks ago:

‘I’m loving the Giants. I like their balance on offense – Manning has been clutch and Cruz is a devastating deep threat. The two headed running game can give them options on offense too. Their defense is coming together, particularly up front where Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and the returning Osi Omenyura could severely limit opposition QBs. They look worth backing if only for trading purposes.

Pick: NFC Champs New York Giants @ 15.0; 1400 ;14/1

Pick: Super Bowl winner New York Giants @ 26; 2500; 25/1’

Well, I’ve layed a fair chunk of it back now and I like Green Bay to cover in tonight’s game.

All of the above is still true, and everyone is picking the Giants as this weekend’s ‘Dog Most Likely’, but I’m betting on Rodgers.

The G-Men have the weapons to slow any QB – pressure without blitzing and a solid run game - but their weakness on the back end means that as long as Green Bay keep Rodgers upright (and you don’t have to do that for long with someone that talented and with that many options) he can get after the Giants’ weak secondary. The Packers will spread it out and then look for any of the legion of GB receivers, including a fit again Greg Jennings.

The knock on the Packers is their defense, but again, they’ve spent two weeks getting guys fit and they led the league in interceptions and had a terrific +24 turnover margin – and we saw the effect of stats like that last night in San Francisco.

I’m going with the least favourite favourite of the week.

Pick: Packers -7.5 @ 1.95; -105; 20/21 (PP)

Pick: 1^st TD Greg Jennings @ 9; 800; 8/1

Pick: Anytime TD Jermichael Finley @ 2.2; 120; 6/5

NFL - Houston (11-6) at Baltimore (12-4)

Sky Sports, Sunday 6pm

I like Baltimore here; T.J. Yates has struggled manfully to keep the Texans rolling behind their running game, but the Ravens have an aggressive defense and Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs et al are likely to give him a very tough time this afternoon. It is possible to get after the Baltimore corners, but attacking Cary Williams and Lardarius Webb means getting the ball to Andre Johnson and Ed Reed will be all over Johnson, helping his corners; Baltimore don’t give up many passing TDs.

The Texans’ offense is Arian Foster, who not only moves the chains rushing and catching, but takes operates to take the pressure off Yates. The problem here is that the Ravens are tough against the run, and can clog up the middle with guys like Terrence Cody and Haloti Ngata. Ben Tate will back up Foster and it’ll be his job to wear down the old guys on the Ravens’ line with his straight ahead power – but he’ll face the same problems; old guys are also wiley old veterans playing in their house.

Joe Flacco hardly inspires; he can be shaky and facing a pass rush as strong as the Texans’ is a rough matchup. He has the arm, but the temperament is dubious and rather like Yates, he’ll want to lean on his running game in Ray Rice, who took Houston for 161 total yards (101 on the ground) last time these teams met. Rice won’t have an easy time of it up against Connor Barwin, DeMeco Ryans, and Brian Cushing, but he worked it out before and should find a way today; it is crucial though, that he sees the rock early and often – let’s hope Cam Cameron hasn’t forgotten that as he sometimes does.

Flacco’s strong arm means that the Ravens occasionally threaten to break off a big passing play, usually relying on the speed of Torrey Smith. The return of Anquan Boldin is encouraging for Flacco and the Ravens and although Boldin will doubtless see a lot of Johnathan Joseph, he does offer options vertically.

In truth, these are pretty evenly matched teams (the money is split 51/49 in the Ravens’ favour) and the deciding factors may be that the Ravens are at home and that they boast veterans who have seen the post-season before, including Flacco. This could be a low scoring affair with two tough defenses on show against questionable QBs, so an interest in the totals could be worth shopping around for.

Pick: Ravens -7.5 @ 1.95; -105; 20/21 (B365)

Pick: 1^st TD Andre Johnson @ 12; 1100; 11/1

Pick: Anytime TD Joel Dreesen @ 4.5; 350; 7/2

Pick: Under 37 @ 1.95; -105; 20/21

NFL - Denver (9-8) at New England (13-3)

Sky Sports, Sunday 1am

Tebow made me look more foolish than usual last week (as difficult as that is!) and this time, I’m going to give him another chance – 13.5 points is just too much to give here with a Pats’ D that is awful and a team that only seems to get rolling in the 2^nd quarter. My suspicion is that people believe Tebow is due a shellacking, and while the Broncos may not win, they don’t look a 13.5 point dog.

Denver beat (an admittedly decimated) Steelers who still had Ike Taylor in the secondary with Troy Polamalu; Tebow had only ten completions, but they were big, devastating plays – just the sort of thing the Pats have specialised in conceding. Also, consider this; when these teams met in Week Fifteen, Willis McGahee gained 70 yards on his first 7 carries, before pulling his hamstring and there’s nothing to suggest he can’t take the New England 17^th ranked rush defense for some big yards again.

Demaryius Thomas should give guys like Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington fits and Tebow obviously doesn’t mind slinging it to him (I hate those mechanics, just like everyone else) and even Eddie Royal has re-emerged, as Eric Decker has hit the sidelines.

A real issue is ball safety; Denver mustn’t put the ball on the floor and McGahee’s fumble late last week gives me pause.

The Patriots will score, with all that talent it’s probably more difficult not to put up a decent points tally, but Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller are getting up to speed and can keep Brady more than honest. The secondary are going to struggle containing the excellent New England Tight Ends and talent deep, but if Champ Bailey and his buddies can avoid breaking, Denver can cover.

Something to bear in mind if you’re trading in-running; look for Brady switching to a no-huddle offense if they’re behind as they have been in recent games; New England can catch up in a hurry.

C’mon Tim, I don’t rate you as a QB, but if you spit in my eye again, I can make a few quid. Take the points.

Pick: Broncos +13.5 @ 2.00; 100; Evens

Pick: 1^st TD Willis McGahee @ 11; 1000; 10/1

Pick: Anytime TD Deion Branch 2.75; 175; 7/4