NFL - NY Jets (8-7) at Miami (5-10)

Sky Sports, 6pm

Rex Ryan is a blowhard, Sanchez is a bust, Greene can’t get it going in the ‘ground and pound’ ethos and the fabled Jets’ D ain’t really all that.

So it’s New York for me.

Miami have surged in the second half of the season, going 8-1 ATS and 5-4 SU, but they’ve nothing to play for here and the Jets have to win to have a chance of progressing. Crucially, Reggie Bush (who has emerged as an unlikely featured back) is out and Daniel Thomas presents nothing like the challenge for a less than stellar run D.

Matt Moore has emerged as a reliable, if uninspiring QB, but today the absence of the fins’ left tackle, Jake Long, will mean his job should be considerably more difficult, even against a Jets’ pass rush that doesn’t get home too often; expect the Jets to blitz the hell out of Moore.

It’s Brandon Marshall’s turn to take a trip to Revis island and although Marshall has shown some form of late, Revis will win out.

For some obscure reason, Brian Schottenheimer had Sanchez throwing the ball all day long last week. Sanchez is fragile at the best of times, and at the moment he looks hurried and indecisive and even more worryingly, the word is that Ryan is losing faith in his triggerman. New York must take the pressure off Sanchez and establish the run, especially as the Miami pass rush has had some success and Cameron Wake, Karlos Dansby and Jason Taylor in his farewell game could provide a real challenge.

Greene must get rolling, and he’s going up against a tough run D, but unless Greene and LT can bust through this strong linebacking corps, the Jets may struggle. I suspect (and hope!) that Schottenheimer will balance the attack and use the pass judiciously (and avoid Vontae Davis downfield) and instead look to exploit the middle of the field where Yeremiah Bell and Reshad Jones can struggle in coverage – Dustin Keller should get some looks.

This looks like it'll be close, but I give the Jets the slight edge, so I’ll take the points.

Pick: Jets +3 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1^st TD Plaxico Burress @ 9.5; 850; 17/2

Pick: Anytime TD Dustin Keller @ 2.75; 175; 7/4