Sky Sports, Sunday 8pm
This was supposed to be the year that the old adage, ‘Defenses
win championships’ was going to be put to rest – the two hottest offenses were
carrying the worst defenses, nothing could stop the inexorable march of the
Packers and the Patriots; that all came to a shuddering halt last week.
It turns out defense does still matter and that should be
good news for a Ravens’ team that are routinely very strong on that side of the
ball. However, I think this game will turn on ...
Brady was brutal last week against a Denver D that had made
Tebow look a lot better than he really was – can Tom be as effective against a
much tougher stop unit? Terrell Suggs and his buddies must get home against a New
England O line that is less than stellar, but a QB who is still difficult to
sack.
Is Brady’s shoulder ok? If that shoulder is vulnerable, you
can bet the Ravens will attack it.
Is Ed Reed fit? He’ll go, but he really needs to be firing
and get after Brady and the ball – it’s Reed and Lardarius Webb who are the
ball hawks. Reed had six tackles, three broken up passes and an interception
against the Houston Texans. In his 10-season career, Reed has eight
interceptions in the postseason.
Can Ray Rice get rolling? If Rice prospers, then the weakest
link in the Ravens’ O, Joe Flacco, traditionally plays well – it also keeps Brady
off the field. Vince Wilfork jams the run nicely and key members of the New
England D line are getting fit; Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes and Patrick Chung can make it
difficult for Rice.
Bill Belichick. I flip flopped on the Pats last week and when
I look back at that pick, it was poor. Few
HCs in the NFL are as tactically astute and Belichick’s ability to adapt his
gameplan is equally impressive. Belichick will complicate Rice’s life this
evening, but it will also mean that any weakness in the Baltimore D will be
picked apart – witness Aaron Hernandez in the backfield last week.
Aaron Hernandez and the Gronk – unstoppable. The former will
appear in the backfield again (look for New England getting the run going with
exotic packages, the Ravens have given up yards on the ground recently) and
both are targets that dominate their coverage.
The rest of the Pats’ receivers – that’s a lot of talent to
keep in check and Tom will spread the love.
Can the Ravens keep up? If New England get out in front
early and you’re betting IR, be careful. The thought of Flacco trying to catch
up with fairly limited options downfield (I still expect Torrey Smith to make a
big play or two, because Flacco must take the occasional deep shot) is not a
pretty one.
This will be close, because although Baltimore don’t have as
potent an offense, Ray Rice can carry that aspect himself (in the 2010
playoffs, Rice went 83 yards for a TD on the first play from scrimmage and took
the Pats for 159/2 on the day) and New England are relatively weak on defense,
but the Pats know which element they have to concentrate on.
However, the home team should have just too much variety on
offense and with New England available at Evens giving up a TD, they look value.
Pick: Pats -7 @ 200; 100; Evens (VC)
Pick: 1st TD Wes Welker @ 8.0; 700; 7/1
Pick: Anytime TD Aaron Hernandez @ 2.1; 110; 11/10
Pick: Torrey Smith Total Receiving Yards Over 55.5 @ 1.91;
-110; 10/11
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