Well, my season hit the wall last round with Arizona going down to a very impressive Panthers.
The Pats' O line problems finally bit them (and me!) on the proverbial. The Denver defense were just too tough and way, way too quick for the patchwork line and even though Tom aired it out 50+ times (that's when New England wins) it was all for naught as he got the snot beaten out of him.
Carolina has a much tougher O line (they've given up two sacks in the post season) and in any case, Newton brings such a potent mix of talent he should keep the chains moving. Cam has shown he can pass and run and, in any case, there are options on the ground if the heat comes on.
Similarly, the Panthers' defense is plenty salty, especially facing the peashooter arm of Peyton Manning. Manning is averaging 5.7 yards per completion at a 55% clip and the Carolina front seven are going to be all over him. On the ground, Denver are underwhelming, with two backs who are feast or famine and will have to navigate that Panther front. I suspect the run is Denver's best shot, but they'll not carry my money.
Favourites are horrible against the spread in the Super Bowl, but Peyton and the Broncos are used to blowing this game. I have to take Carolina.
Pick: Carolina Panthers -5.5
Pick: 1st TD Greg Olsen @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Cam Newton @ 2.1
Pick: Super Bowl MVP Cam Newton @ 1.73
Pick: Cam Newton to perform Superman celebration Over 2.5 @ 2
Pick: Gatorade Colour dumped on winning coach Orange @ 2.5
Pick: How many times will John Elway be shown Over 2.5 @ 2
Sunday 7 February 2016
Sunday 24 January 2016
Live NFL - Championship Round 8pm - 11.40pm
Patriots at Broncos
The herd is convinced and so am I.
Pick: New England Patriots -3
Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Julian Edelman @ 2.2
Cardinals at Panthers
The game of the season two weeks early.
The Panthers' front is tough and I suspect this will be a brutal arm wrestle in the trenches. The critical elements will be Arizona controlling the Carolina on the ground and the Panthers' secondary trying to shut down the multiple threats from the Cardinals.
I've been backing the Cardinals for a while now and I'm not turning away now. It should be a great game, but if Arizona can manoeuvre Carson Palmer into the slot, that secondary can be beaten.
Strap in.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals +3
Pick: 1st TD Jonathan Stewart @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Michael Floyd @ 2.62
The herd is convinced and so am I.
Pick: New England Patriots -3
Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Julian Edelman @ 2.2
Cardinals at Panthers
The game of the season two weeks early.
The Panthers' front is tough and I suspect this will be a brutal arm wrestle in the trenches. The critical elements will be Arizona controlling the Carolina on the ground and the Panthers' secondary trying to shut down the multiple threats from the Cardinals.
I've been backing the Cardinals for a while now and I'm not turning away now. It should be a great game, but if Arizona can manoeuvre Carson Palmer into the slot, that secondary can be beaten.
Strap in.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals +3
Pick: 1st TD Jonathan Stewart @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Michael Floyd @ 2.62
Sunday 17 January 2016
Live NFL - Divisional Round Sunday 6pm - 9.40pm
Seahawks at Panthers
The weekend's best game.
After squeaking past the Vikes, Seattle might think the Gods are smiling on them and certainly the league MVP elect, Cam Newton, seems to have feet of clay when he meets teams in the playoffs, but the Seahawks will need to be right on their game to win this one.
The problem for the road team is that they looked unconvincing on offense last week, and they might need a pissed off Lynch to spark them into life here, because I see the Panthers shading it. Cam will mix it up vertically into the redzone then punch it in on the ground.
Pick: Carolina Panthers -2.5
Pick: 1st TD Jonathan Stewart @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Cam Newton @ 2.1
Steelers at Broncos
With all their playmakers out, or nearly out (Ben must be less than an Evens shot to finish if he starts) the Steelers are fatally hamstrung. Manning will throw picks, but it won't save Pittsburgh.
Pick: Denver Broncos -7.5
Pick: 1st TD CJ Anderson @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Emmanuel Sanders @ 2.2
The weekend's best game.
After squeaking past the Vikes, Seattle might think the Gods are smiling on them and certainly the league MVP elect, Cam Newton, seems to have feet of clay when he meets teams in the playoffs, but the Seahawks will need to be right on their game to win this one.
The problem for the road team is that they looked unconvincing on offense last week, and they might need a pissed off Lynch to spark them into life here, because I see the Panthers shading it. Cam will mix it up vertically into the redzone then punch it in on the ground.
Pick: Carolina Panthers -2.5
Pick: 1st TD Jonathan Stewart @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Cam Newton @ 2.1
Steelers at Broncos
With all their playmakers out, or nearly out (Ben must be less than an Evens shot to finish if he starts) the Steelers are fatally hamstrung. Manning will throw picks, but it won't save Pittsburgh.
Pick: Denver Broncos -7.5
Pick: 1st TD CJ Anderson @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Emmanuel Sanders @ 2.2
Saturday 16 January 2016
Live NFL - Divisional Round Saturday 9.35pm - 1.15am
Chiefs at Patriots
If Edelman and Gronkowski go, then the Patriots win. If they don't, fade Tom.
Pick: Patriots -5
Pick: 1st TD Julian Edelman @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD James White @ 3.25
Packers at Cardinals
Washington should've finished the Packers off early (Jackson cost me a bundle win/1st TD) but blew it: the Cardinals won't be as generous.
It won't be another 30 point thrashing, so don't smash in with this many points on offer, but my Super Bowl pick rolls on.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals -7.5
Pick: 1st TD John Brown @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Randall Cobb @ 2.5
If Edelman and Gronkowski go, then the Patriots win. If they don't, fade Tom.
Pick: Patriots -5
Pick: 1st TD Julian Edelman @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD James White @ 3.25
Packers at Cardinals
Washington should've finished the Packers off early (Jackson cost me a bundle win/1st TD) but blew it: the Cardinals won't be as generous.
It won't be another 30 point thrashing, so don't smash in with this many points on offer, but my Super Bowl pick rolls on.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals -7.5
Pick: 1st TD John Brown @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Randall Cobb @ 2.5
Sunday 10 January 2016
Live NFL - Wildcard Weekend Sunday 6pm - 9.40pm
Seahawks at Vikings
Russell Wilson's emergence as an elite QB has added a dimension to the Seattle offense that makes them strong contenders to go all the way.
AP will give it a go, but the brutal Seahawk defense has stifled him before and Bridgewater doesn't look like he has the arm to win this through the freezing air in Minneapolis.
The weather may level the field a little, but frankly the barometer looks like the home team's best hope.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -4.5
Pick: 1st TD Russell Wilson @ 19
Pick: Anytime TD Doug Baldwin @ 2.3
Packers at Washington
Capping your own team is difficult, but Cousins gives Washington a shot here, as long as they can find a way to block up the interior on defense and stop the Pack on the ground.
These teams look as though they're heading in opposite direction; I hope that means the couch for the Pack.
Pick: Washington +1
Pick: 1st TD DeSean Jackson @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Jordan Reed @ 2.4
Russell Wilson's emergence as an elite QB has added a dimension to the Seattle offense that makes them strong contenders to go all the way.
AP will give it a go, but the brutal Seahawk defense has stifled him before and Bridgewater doesn't look like he has the arm to win this through the freezing air in Minneapolis.
The weather may level the field a little, but frankly the barometer looks like the home team's best hope.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -4.5
Pick: 1st TD Russell Wilson @ 19
Pick: Anytime TD Doug Baldwin @ 2.3
Packers at Washington
Capping your own team is difficult, but Cousins gives Washington a shot here, as long as they can find a way to block up the interior on defense and stop the Pack on the ground.
These teams look as though they're heading in opposite direction; I hope that means the couch for the Pack.
Pick: Washington +1
Pick: 1st TD DeSean Jackson @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Jordan Reed @ 2.4
Saturday 9 January 2016
Live NFL - Wildcard Weekend Saturday 9.35pm - 1.15am
Chiefs at Texans
Two teams that have risen Lazarus-like to make the playoffs. The Texans will hope that their aggressive pass rush can rattle Alex Smith who has looked worryingly out of form after spending most of the season as Mr Reliable.
Ironically, I think it'll be the Kansas defense and the returning Tamba Hali (questionable at time of writing) and Justin Houston who'll dominate Brian Hoyer, especially with Duane Brown gone.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -3
Pick: 1st TD Spencer Ware @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Travis Kelce @ 2.6
Steelers at Bengals
McCarron, 'nuff said. Pittsburgh feast on QBs like this and the Bengals will need to put up points - it screams picks. While they'll give up a ton of yards, the Steelers will have too much on offense.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5
Pick: 1st TD Antonio Brown @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Tyler Eifert @ 2.5
Two teams that have risen Lazarus-like to make the playoffs. The Texans will hope that their aggressive pass rush can rattle Alex Smith who has looked worryingly out of form after spending most of the season as Mr Reliable.
Ironically, I think it'll be the Kansas defense and the returning Tamba Hali (questionable at time of writing) and Justin Houston who'll dominate Brian Hoyer, especially with Duane Brown gone.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -3
Pick: 1st TD Spencer Ware @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Travis Kelce @ 2.6
Steelers at Bengals
McCarron, 'nuff said. Pittsburgh feast on QBs like this and the Bengals will need to put up points - it screams picks. While they'll give up a ton of yards, the Steelers will have too much on offense.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5
Pick: 1st TD Antonio Brown @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Tyler Eifert @ 2.5
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