Live NFL - Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos 1.25am

The aggressive Denver front will get after McCarron who can be a little sluggish in the pocket. Neither team should be able to get a ground game going, so it'll be which of these replacement QBs can emerge from the arm wrestle intact and hit the occasional big play.

Brock Osweiler looks the QB most likely.

Pick: Denver Broncos -4

Pick: 1st TD Emmanuel Sanders @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Demaryius Thomas @ 2.5

Live NFL Week 16 6pm - 1.30am

Patriots @ Jets

A very tough call.

Gang green need to win to keep any realistic post-season hopes alive, whereas Bill and Tom need that home tie in the playoffs to rest and repair an injured team that is on its knees.

The Jets will throw everything at a Patriots' defense that has stepped up mightily and Belichick has done his usual trick of summoning up a mix of unfancied or veteran players who seem to allow the machine to roll on.

Bill gives Fitz fits and Brady will lean heavily on the Gronk (not my most surprising call!) ... the result? Pats pragmatism, just.

Pick: New England Patriots -1.5

Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Eric Decker @ 2.38

Packers at Cardinals

I've been backing the Cardinals for a while to win it all. No reason to lose faith in this game.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals -5.5

Pick: 1st TD David Johnson @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD John Brown @ 2.2

Giants @ Vikings

Odell Beckham is gone and so are the Giants. The Vikings roll on.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings -6.5

Pick: 1st TD Adrian Peterson @ 5
Pick: Anytime TD Stefon Diggs @ 2.5

Week 16 Hail Mary SU Acca

Texans
Chiefs
Lions
Bills
Panthers
Steelers
Seahawks
Cardinals
Vikings

@10.41

Live NFL - Washinton Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles 1.25am

Washington, although they don't travel well, can clinch the NFC East with a win. The Eagles look done and Cousins can take advantage of a banged up Philadelphia secondary.

3 points looks generous ... as long as DeSean Jackson plays.

Pick: Washington Redskins +3

Pick: 1st TD Jordan Reed @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD DeSean Jackson @ 2.3

Live NFL - Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints 1.25am

The Lions are horrible on the road, horrible on national TV and horrible against the Saints.

New Orleans are just horrible on defense. The Saints are giving up over 30 points a game (although Dennis Allen seems to have put some fire in the stop unit's belly) and Stafford and megatron should tear this secondary apart - were it not for the fact Detroit have come up with the genius idea of ignoring Johnson for large parts of the game.

Neither team can run the ball, but both have strong passing attacks. There should be a ton of points and if I had to bet, it would be the Over.

Pick: New Orleans Saints -2.5
Pick: Over 51.5

Pick: 1st TD Brandin Cooks @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Golden Tate @ 2.38

Live NFL Week 15 6pm - 1.30am

Panthers at Giants

Carolina giving 4.5 points here should be the bet of the season, but the banged up Panthers sound like they have their feet off the pedals and it's always dangerous backing unbeaten teams going into Metlife.

That pass rush should do it though. Small stakes.

Pick: Carolina Panthers -4.5

Pick: 1st TD Cam Newton @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Odell Beckham @ 2

Broncos at Steelers

The best game of the week has the tough Denver D facing off against Pittsburgh's purring playmakers. The problem for the Broncos is they just can't put up the points.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5

Pick: 1st TD DeAngelo Williams @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Demaryius Thomas @ 2.5

Cardinals at Eagles

The Eagles have flashed some form, but the Cardinals have too much on both sides of the ball in a game that can clinch them the Division and possibly a first round bye.

I like this bet.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals -3.5

Pick: 1st TD John Brown @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Larry Fitzgerald @ 2.1
  
Week 15 SU Hail Mary Acca

Vikings
Pats
Chiefs
Seahawks
Steelers
Bengals
Cardinals
Saints

@ 10.67

Live NFL - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St Louis Rams 1.25am

Gawd, these games are getting worse - picking them is a coin toss and about as much fun.

Take the Buccaneers SU if you must. On a more positive note, it may be worth an interest in the Under with these two underpowered offenses.

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Under 41

Pick: 1st TD Todd Gurley @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Doug Martin @ 2

Live NFL - New York Giants at Miami Dolphins 1.25am

Another horrible MNF game.

Take the Fins, if you must. Oh, and sorry for that Texans pick - that's the stupidest call I've made since I said, "I do".

Pick: Miami Dolphins -1

Pick: 1st TD Jarvis Landry @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Lamar Miller @ 2

Week 14 SU 'Hail Mary' Acca

Lions
Bucs
Jets
Chiefs
Bears
Panthers
Seahawks
Broncos
Packers
Pats

@ 24

Live NFL Week 14 6pm - 1.30am

Steelers at Bengals

Big Ben is in terrific form and Pittsburgh have plenty of weapons, but the Bengals have a stout defense and a potent offense of their own. Should be a belter, but I have to give less than a field goal at home. The herd have been smashing into the total all week pushing it out to 50 (it may go higher, so hang on) and are worth opposing.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
Pick: Under 49.5

Pick: 1st TD DeAngelo Williams @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Tyler Eifert @ 2

Cowboys at Packers

The herd seem back in love with America's team and have clipped the spread, but I'm not so sure. Cassel flattered to deceive and the Pack will be buoyed by the 'miraculous heave' last week (cost me a bundle!)

Pick: Packers -6 (leave it late, you may find the spread moves in again as bettors look to recoup on the early games)

Pick: 1st TD Richard Rodgers @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD DeZ Bryant @ 2.5

Patriots at Texans

Hoyer is a worry - he has a deer in headlights look against well organised defenses - but with the Pats' injuries, their horrible O line and the Texans becoming relevant, I have to believe the Houston D will let them cover at home. JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney may ruin Tom Terrific's Christmas.

Pick: Houston Texans +5.5

Pick: 1st TD DeAndre Hopkins @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD LeGarrette Blount @ 2.4

Live NFL - Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals 1.25am

This is an awful lot of points to give, but it's Thursday night football; give the points and take the Over. Actually, there's some logic in that tonight with the Cardinals tough on both sides of the ball and the Vikings injured and staggering over the finishing line.

Minnesota will need to throw the ball, because teams are just loading up the box to stifle Peterson and with Diggs the biggest target outside, this could get ugly for the visitors. I love David Johnson running the ball and with Larry Fitz, John Brown and Malcolm Floyd deep (hell, even rookie JJ Nelson looks good) Carson Palmer may be about to have an early Christmas.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals -10.5 @ 2
Pick: Over 46.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD David Johnson @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Larry Fitzgerald @ 2; Michael Floyd @ 2.7

Live NFL - Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins 1.25am

A team seemingly happier on the road, with a solid defense, but their third body at QB, against a team that thrives at home, is soft against the run, but boasts a QB who hasn't thrown a pick on his own turf since week one.

The line opened at 4.5 and has now got Washington a 2.5 favourite. The solid Dallas secondary means this should be a small bet, but I'll ride the home form.

Pick: Washington Redskins -2.5

Pick: 1st TD Darren McFadden @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jordan Reed @ 2.7

Live NFL Week 13

Seahawks at Vikings

Could be a belter, but I don't like the loss of Linval Joseph for the home team with Rawls likely to see the rock a lot. Russell Wilson might just be a pocket passer after all!

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -1.5

Pick: 1st TD Thomas Rawls @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Doug Baldwin @ 3

Panthers @ Saints

Carolina have too much for a New Orleans side struggling to score and possibly missing Willie Snead.

Pick: Carolina Panthers -6.5

Pick: 1st TD Jonathan Stewart @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Ben Watson @ 3.5

Colts at Steelers

Hasselbeck will have to throw it a ton tonight with Frank Gore carrying an injury, but Big Ben ruined the Indy defense last year and will likely repeat here.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -9

Pick: 1st TD DeAngelo Williams @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Coby Fleener @ 4

Hail Mary SU Acca

Cardinals
Bengals
Bears
Broncos
Panthers
Patriots
Steelers
Redskins

Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions 1.25am

I like Detroit here.

I'm a bit nervous of the inevitable coach bounce wearing off, but new OC Jim Bob Cooter really seems like a good fit for Stafford. The Pack have struggled on offense and their secondary looks vulnerable. The Lions' defense has played well of late, so I'll take the home dog.

Pick: Detroit Lions +2.5

Pick: 1st TD Calvin Johnson @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Randall Cobb @ 2.5

Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns 1.25am

Go to bed.

I wouldn't bet this pile of horse feathers if my life depended on it, but if you must, take the Browns; I prefer McCown to the clown Manziel and the Ravens are looking around for bodies to suit up - there's no-one left on the offensive side. I'm taping the game just to see what the rookie running backs will do.

Night night.

Pick: Browns -4.5

Pick: 1st TD Gary Barnidge @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Buck Allen @ 2.2