It's not been a bad post-season, but hitting last week's Teaser definitely helped after getting the wrong side of the hook in a couple of games.
On we go ...
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos - 8pm
Regular readers, followers and subscribers will know (because it's in every monthly betting bulletin) that, as much as I struggle with the Pats as an organisation, I admire Belichick and Brady as consumate tacticians.
Last week New England pounded the rock and murdered the Colts with Blount running amok. However, Denver are tough to run on and I expect Brady to have to throw to get this done, he'll be helped by Chris Harris going down, but I doubt it'll be enough as Denver have stiffened on defense and the Pats' injuries on both sides of the ball will finally catch up with them as Manning has too many weapons, through the air and on the ground.
Denver is a tough enough place to go at the best of times, let alone with men missing and the Broncos rolling on offense.
Pick: Denver Broncos -4 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Julius Thomas @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Julian Edelman @ 2.3
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks - 11.30pm
The 49ers tend to get beaten up in CenturyLink and while this is their best shot at laying that ghost, I doubt they will.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -3.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Russell Wilson @ 4.5
Sunday 19 January 2014
Sunday 12 January 2014
Live NFL Divisional Weekend - San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos 9.40pm Sky Sports
Don't be silly.
Pick: Denver Broncos -7.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Knowshon Moreno @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Julius Thomas @ 2.4
Pick: Denver Broncos -7.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Knowshon Moreno @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Julius Thomas @ 2.4
Live NFL Divisional Weekend - San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers 6pm Sky Sports
The closest game of the weekend, but I like the 49ers pass rush and Bowman and Willis to give Cam Newton a tough time. The Panthers shouldn't be able to compensate on the ground.
San Francisco, on the other hand, have a nicer balance on offense (although Gore isn't likely to tear it up against this front) with the return of Crabtree reigniting the passing game.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers @ 1.98
Pick: 1st TD Anquan Boldin @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Frank Gore @ 2.1
San Francisco, on the other hand, have a nicer balance on offense (although Gore isn't likely to tear it up against this front) with the return of Crabtree reigniting the passing game.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers @ 1.98
Pick: 1st TD Anquan Boldin @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Frank Gore @ 2.1
Saturday 11 January 2014
Live NFL Divisional Weekend - Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots 1.15am Sky Sports
The Colts should pound the rock here, but with their ropey corners and Brilliant Bill and Tom Terrific challenging that secondary, Luck may have to throw it against an improved Pats' pass D.
Pick: New England Patriots -7 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Shane Vereen @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Julian Edelman @ 2; Donald Brown @ 2.3
Pick: New England Patriots -7 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Shane Vereen @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Julian Edelman @ 2; Donald Brown @ 2.3
Live NFL Divisional Weekend - New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks 9.35pm Sky Sports
Everyone seems to feel Drew Brees shook off his road hoodoo last weekend, but this week it returns.
Seattle are too tough on D, Wilson is too efficient and the crowd too hostile.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -9.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Seattle D/ST @ 4
Seattle are too tough on D, Wilson is too efficient and the crowd too hostile.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -9.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Seattle D/ST @ 4
Sunday 5 January 2014
Live NFL Wild Card Round - San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers 9.40pm Sky Sports
The herd is pounding the 49ers and Under - I'm going Green Bay and the Overs.
There's no denying that injuries and patchy play make the Pack look vulnerable, but with Aaron Rodgers getting back in the groove and Cobb back, if Lacy and Starks can make any headway, I like San Francisco to be frozen out by Rodgers as the wind whips off Lake Michigan.
This isn't a big bet, but I like Rodgers as a dog at home, with Gore on the down-slope and nicked up San Francisco corners in a high of -5.
Pick: Green Bay Packers +3 @ 2.05
Pick: Over 45 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Frank Gore @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Randall Cobb @ 2.88
There's no denying that injuries and patchy play make the Pack look vulnerable, but with Aaron Rodgers getting back in the groove and Cobb back, if Lacy and Starks can make any headway, I like San Francisco to be frozen out by Rodgers as the wind whips off Lake Michigan.
This isn't a big bet, but I like Rodgers as a dog at home, with Gore on the down-slope and nicked up San Francisco corners in a high of -5.
Pick: Green Bay Packers +3 @ 2.05
Pick: Over 45 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Frank Gore @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Randall Cobb @ 2.88
Live NFL Wild Card Round - San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals 6pm Sky Sports
Normally, opposing the herd is the way to go, and the public is all over the Bengals like a fat lad at a buffet, but in this game I can't see past the home team; they just have too much on either side of the ball.
Cincinnati are 8-0 at home and Andy Dalton's numbers are far better in Paul Brown Stadium which is more important than it might seem, because Dalton is prone to turning the ball over. The Law Firm and Bernard are a nice one/two punch on the ground and given the weather forecast, the ability to control the run game may be critical. The Bolts' secondary is poor, despite picking up down the stretch, and A J Green matches up nicely on Shareece Wright and Richard Marshall at the corners; there's also a decent support cast downfield.
Ryan Mathews should be held in check by a decent Bengals' defensive front, forcing Philip Rivers to the air and while San Diego does have talent over the top with Antonio Gates and Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead catching out of the backfield, Cincinnati ranks 5th in average yards given up per game against the pass and the weather may be limiting.
I have the Bengals a TD better. I also like the Under.
Pick: Cincinnati -6.5 @ 1.93
Pick: Under 47.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD A J Green @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD BenJarvus Green-Ellis @ 2.3
Cincinnati are 8-0 at home and Andy Dalton's numbers are far better in Paul Brown Stadium which is more important than it might seem, because Dalton is prone to turning the ball over. The Law Firm and Bernard are a nice one/two punch on the ground and given the weather forecast, the ability to control the run game may be critical. The Bolts' secondary is poor, despite picking up down the stretch, and A J Green matches up nicely on Shareece Wright and Richard Marshall at the corners; there's also a decent support cast downfield.
Ryan Mathews should be held in check by a decent Bengals' defensive front, forcing Philip Rivers to the air and while San Diego does have talent over the top with Antonio Gates and Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead catching out of the backfield, Cincinnati ranks 5th in average yards given up per game against the pass and the weather may be limiting.
I have the Bengals a TD better. I also like the Under.
Pick: Cincinnati -6.5 @ 1.93
Pick: Under 47.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD A J Green @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD BenJarvus Green-Ellis @ 2.3
Saturday 4 January 2014
Live NFL Wild Card Round - New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles 1.10 am Sky Sports
You have to fade the Saints with Brees on the road in cold weather. Even with all that power on offense (expect Jimmy Graham to give Mychal Kendricks and his buddies a torrid time) the Saints' superlative slinger just doesn't thrive when the mercury drops below 40 degrees and it's currently 27.
The Eagles have really gathered momentum coming into this game, although they seemed to lose concentration last week and Rob Ryan will have noted the pressure that was brought to bear on Nick Foles. Interestingly, it doesn't pay to play all out blitz too much against Foles, who has a 125 passer rating against the blitz, and with the peerless LeSean McCoy running and catching out of the backfield, Ryan will need to be at his devilish best to out-scheme this offense.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD LeSean McCoy @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Riley Cooper @ 2.2
The Eagles have really gathered momentum coming into this game, although they seemed to lose concentration last week and Rob Ryan will have noted the pressure that was brought to bear on Nick Foles. Interestingly, it doesn't pay to play all out blitz too much against Foles, who has a 125 passer rating against the blitz, and with the peerless LeSean McCoy running and catching out of the backfield, Ryan will need to be at his devilish best to out-scheme this offense.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD LeSean McCoy @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Riley Cooper @ 2.2
Live NFL Wildcard Round - Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts 9.35pm Sky Sports
I don't like teams resting starters (although I appreciate that if there was ever an exception, it would be Jamaal Charles, whose workload is extraordinary) but it always makes me nervous about the team's rhythm and momentum.
The Chiefs did so last week and have also looked poor down the stretch, so I have to favour the Colts here. The problem is, Charles may tear it up tonight against an Indianapolis run defense that has struggled against the run - it should be noted that the defense in general has improved of late and factors into the pick.
I like the Overs too, with the Chiefs taking their foot off the pedal last time these teams met, and the Colts enjoying the emergence of a ground game and TY Hilton proving a capable deep threat.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts @ 2.2
Pick: Over 46 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Donald Brown @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD TY Hilton @ 2.5
The Chiefs did so last week and have also looked poor down the stretch, so I have to favour the Colts here. The problem is, Charles may tear it up tonight against an Indianapolis run defense that has struggled against the run - it should be noted that the defense in general has improved of late and factors into the pick.
I like the Overs too, with the Chiefs taking their foot off the pedal last time these teams met, and the Colts enjoying the emergence of a ground game and TY Hilton proving a capable deep threat.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts @ 2.2
Pick: Over 46 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Donald Brown @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD TY Hilton @ 2.5
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