MLB - Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers ESPN 1am 12am

After paying for last night's cowardice and not going Over (it only covered by 12 runs!) I'm steering clear again tonight, even though these pitchers are struggling.

Dallas Keuchel has been rocked recently and with Braun due back, the Brewers should reach him.

Gallardo has been struggling of late too, but the Astros rank 27th in runs scored and shouldn't be giving him sleepless nights. This Houston lineup is hitting just .156 against him with a .188 OBP and he's 11-2 lifetime against them.

I don't enjoy exotic bets, but Keuchel is particularly vulnerable early and Houston stink, so for a little early morning entertainment, I'll take a couple of the more interesting handicaps.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers to win by 4 or more runs @ 3.10 (WH)
Pick: Winner after 3 innings Milwaukee Brewers @ 2.00

MLB - Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers ESPN 12am

These pitchers have horrible numbers and pitching in Arlington this could be a cricket score. When I say horrible, I mean 3.00/16.00 WHIP/ERA for Santana and 1.44/5.94 for Oswalt. This has pushed the Totals out to 11. I think I could count the number of times I've gone Over on that bet on the fingers of one hand in 25+ years, and I'm not going to now, but damn, it's tempting, as even the available bullpens look ugly tonight.

Instead, I'm going to trust the Rangers to beat the hell out of Santana, who is 0-1 against the Rangers with a 32.40 ERA in just 1 2/3 innings pitched this season. He's headed for Utah.

Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 @ 2.45

MLB - Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants 9pm

The Giants have cooled at the plate, while the Dodgers have heated up, but these two pitchers have some crazy numbers:

Clayton Kershaw has a career 1.45 ERA versus San Francisco - the lowest all-time. Ryan Vogelsong, has a 1.01/1.41 WHIP/ERA at home - the lowest in the NL this year.

I'm going to buck the losing streak here though, because the Dodgers are too short. Vogelsong has beaten Kershaw twice already this season (and has better numbers L3) and the Giants have hit lefties hard L5.

I'll also go Under.

Pick: San Francisco @ 2.09
Pick: Under 6.5 @ 1.91

MLB - Saturday's Live Games

Detroit @ Toronto 6pm

Both pitchers can give up runs, so I'll go with my least favourite bet.

Pick: Over 9.5 @ 2.00

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees 9pm

Lester has horrible numbers L3 and the Yankees are looking ominously powerful at the plate. CC can close it down, so I'll go on the runline.

Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 @ 2.05

MLB - St Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs ESPN 7.15pm

This seems like a straightforward pick, with Lynn dominating the Cubs and the Cards heavily outscoring this afternoon's opposition.

Add in Travis Wood's numbers and the St Louis win streak and I'll take a short enough price on the runline.

Pick: St Louis Cardinals -1.5 @ 2.00

MLB - Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians ESPN 12am

This is a really tough game to call; Verlander is in form and almost impossible to oppose, but he's equally unbackable at the price - even the runline is best price Evens and although it's a favourable position with the Tigers as the road team, it's too short.

Totals are skinny too, with my favourite Unders on a low line barely staggering to 1.85.

Instead, I'm going to invest in the impossible; Zach McAllister has nice numbers, has pitched well against the Indians, and if he can get some run support might just sneak past Verlander who doesn't enjoy Progressive Field.

Pick: Cleveland Indians @ 2.55

MLB - Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles ESPN 5.30pm

The Orioles aren't getting it done on offense and seem to be in danger of their usual stall.

The Rays may have found a little momentum after adding Ryan Roberts and have a strong recent record against the birds.

I'll bet the losing streak.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ 1.91

MLB - Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins ESPN 5.30pm

The Marlins have thrown their hand in for the season and the clubhouse can't be great at the moment. They're struggling to score (shedding Ramirez won't help) and look vulnerable here.

Tommy Hanson has nice numbers in Miami and I'll have a crack at the runline with the Marlins fielding a shaky Nolasco.

Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 @ 2.45

MLB - Washington Nationals at New York Mets ESPN 12am

The Mets are done and Dickey isn't mowing 'em down as easily; throw in a bullpen that stinks and tonight the road dog looks value riding a three game winning streak.

Gonzalez hardly inspires at the moment, so I'll take a little Over too with the line at 7.5.

Pick: Washington Nationals @ 2.00
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.15

MLB - Washington Nationals at New York Mets ESPN 12am

The Mets seem to have hit the wall (1-9 L10) and Young has moderate numbers L3, so it looks tough for them tonight against a Nats side hitting .340 L5 against righties with Zimmerman on the mound (0.74/0.47 WHIP/ERA L3).

Washington have owned the Mets this season, so I'll look for a little value on the runline.

Pick: Washington Nationals -1.5 @ 2.3

MLB - Sunday's Late Games ESPN

Yankees @ Oakland

I've spoken about streaks in baseball ad nauseam and this is the ultimate test of the theory: a losing streak runs up against a winning streak, when the sliding team has no right to lose to the win-streak opposing pitcher.

CC Sabathia has been strong recently and has nice numbers against the A's. Bartolo Colon has decent enough numbers L3, but CC he ain't!

I'll bet the rolling Oakland team and see if the wisdom holds up.

Pick: Oakland A's @ 2.77 

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels 1am

The night owls among you can look for the Texans to recoup your losses after the Oakland A's got reamed in the 9pm game!

Harrison has been red hot and with the Rangers' offense going up against Dan Haren (always consider opposing a pitcher's first start off the DL) they should be a strong bet.

Pick: Texas Rangers @ 1.91

MLB - Saturday Games July 21st

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets 6pm

The Mets' rotation is on its knees and although the Dodgers have been light at the plate, Kemp's return seems to be putting a little pop into their offense.
Pick: LA Dodgers -1.5 @ 2.3 
 
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels 9pm

These two pitchers have been hit hard L3, but their splits reveal definite road/home bias; if Darvish is rocked, it tends to be on the road, whereas Ervin Santana seems happier on his home hill.

I'll take the home dog and go Over in a balmy Anaheim with Gary Darling behind home.

Pick: Los Angeles Angels @ 2.05
Pick: Over 8.5 @ 1.91

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals 12am

Season debutant John Lannan is 6-9 with a 4.89 ERA in 18 starts for Triple-A Syracuse this year, losing his last three outings with a 7.27 ERA. Fill-in Randall Delgado has a 2.21/7.15 WHIP/ERA L3.

Over.

Pick: Over 8.5 @ 1.95

MLB - Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers ESPN 12am

Although Pujols is showing signs of life (if there's a price for the long ball tonight, take a little) I don't like Santana, and the Tigers are hitting .308 L5 and are 7-3 L10.

This Halos' lineup is hitting .228 against Porcello, with a .253 OBP; I like Detroit to dominate.

Pick: Detroit Tigers -1.5 @ 2.62

MLB - St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds ESPN 1am

For you night owls ...

There are some hot bats in this one and two pitchers who can give up runs in a hitter's ballpark with the weather set fair.

Go Over.

Pick: Over 9 @ 1.87

MLB - San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers ESPN 9pm

The Padres have knocked Chris Capuano about this season and despite his numbers at home, he stumbled last time out. Jason Marquis has been shaky L3, so I'll take on the low total.

Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.00

MLB - Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees ESPN 6pm

Opposing Weaver is crazy, but his numbers on the road against the Yankees aren't great. The bombers are sitting on a three game winning streak and Nova has shown some form.

To complete the craziness (or stupidity) I'll also go Under with these two on the mound and Tim Welke behind home (3/13 O/U)

Pick: New York Yankees @ 1.96
Pick: Under 9.5 @ 1.8

MLB - Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins ESPN 12am

Both of these pitchers are serving up good stuff and a low total looks vulnerable with them on the mound.

Pick: Under 7.5 @ 2.00

MLB - New York Mets at Atlanta Braves ESPN 9pm

I don't trust knuckleballers (even ones with numbers like Dickey's) and with the Braves on a 5 game win streak, the case for the Mets looks even weaker, but I have to take R.A. at the price.

Pick: New York Mets @ 2.06

MLB - Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays ESPN 6pm

Again, I like the momentum of the dog and their pitcher in this game. Jimenez has put together some nice performances recently and the Indians have won seven of the last ten and are hitting .274 L5 compared to the home team's .215 over the same stretch.

Aaron Laffey has done well after moving into the rotation, but I'm always wary of 'fill ins' and he may be fragile.

The road team is the value.

Pick: Cleveland Indians @ 2.17

MLB - St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds ESPN 12am

Latos has dazzlng numbers L3, but has been roughed up by the Cards in the past. Looking at the splits though, the numbers are heavily weighted by beatings he has taken at Busch Stadium, where in 3 outings he has conceded 23 earned runs.

Adam Wainwright has been less impressive L3 and with the home team building a little momentum, I'll take the Reds, but this price is as low as I'll go.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds @ 1.81

MLB - San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates 6.30pm

The Bucs are maintaining their surprise challenge, while the Giants have been struggling of late. Lincecum has been poor, and just as he showed some form, he got knocked about by the the Nats last time out. Burnett similarly got hit hard in his last game.

Pittsburgh are a pretty light hitting team though, and Burnett's splits suggest he's happier at home, so I'll go Under here and hope there's no collapse by either of these pitchers.

Under 8 @ 20/21; 1.9; -105

MLB - New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox ESPN 12am

I hate betting the Yankees - they're always overbet and value is rare - but I've got to go with the road team here.

Kuroda and Beckett have been strong L3, but the bombers are hotter and the home team pitcher has a 5.36 ERA lifetime against the pinstripes.

Pick: New York Yankees @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

MLB - Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox ESPN 7pm

Jose Quintana has been strong L3 (and stronger at home) and even though Harrison should be tough, I'll take the home dog and bet the Texas losing streak.

Pick: Chicago White Sox @ 6/5; 2.2; +120

MLB - Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Indians ESPN 9pm

Santana has not enjoyed facing the Indians (1-7, 4.13 ERA lifetime) and although Lowe's numbers L3 are poor, his performances at home have been more encouraging (4-1, 2.64 ERA)

I'll take the home dog.

Pick: Cleveland Indians @ Evens; 2.00; 100

MLB - Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets ESPN 6pm

The Phillies have lost six on the bounce and Lee is struggling. The Mets are the bet.

Pick: New York Mets @ 28/25; 2.11; +111

Live MLB - Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers ESPN 9pm

Marco Estrada looks the more reliable of these two pitchers and had a decent outing last time out. I'll play the streak.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

Live MLB - New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays ESPN 12am

Freddy Garcia got ROCKED last two games he's started and he's only made it beyond the fifth inning once this season. However, he has a decent enough record in Florida, seems to have regathered himself after a stint in the bullpen, and is facing a Rays lineup that is ice cold at the plate.

The bombers are hitting .260 against lefties, so they're a live chance.

The Yankees are the value.

Pick: New York Yankees @ 127/100; 2.27; 127