Ryan Tannehill is getting the hell beaten out of him (the most sacked QB in football) and the Bengals gave Geno Smith a torrid time last week. Tannehill has lost Brandon Gibson, limiting his options downfield, unless Mike Williams can begin to earn his money. The Fins have Hartline and Clay underneath, and Lamar Miller out of the backfield, but this is a tough Cincinnati front in terms of the pass rush and defending the run.
Andy Dalton went bananas last week, and Marvin Jones went and caught four touchdowns; then there's A J Green, Tyler Eifert and Jermaine Gresham in the mix and Giovani Bernard up the gut. It won't be the turkey shoot of last week, with Miami sure to put up more fight than the Jets, especially on primetime, but nonetheless, Cincinnati look cracking value giving up a field goal.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -3 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Giovani Bernard @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Cincinnati D/ST @ 4.5; Marvin Jones @ 2.7
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (21-18, +3.39)
Totals (8-7, +0.40)
1st TD (6-23, +25.5)
Anytime TD (23-38, -3.41)
(+25.88)
Thursday 31 October 2013
Wednesday 30 October 2013
Live MLB - St Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox 12am BT Sports
Michael Wacha appears to have ice blood in his veins, as everybody has waited for the rookie to buckle in the postseason; instead, he has pitched beautifully.
Wacha's last outing wasn't quite so strong, but I've been on him all autumn and on the Cardinals for the past three months - you gotta believe!
Pick: St Louis Cardinals @ 2.11
102-109 (+1.31)
Wacha's last outing wasn't quite so strong, but I've been on him all autumn and on the Cardinals for the past three months - you gotta believe!
Pick: St Louis Cardinals @ 2.11
102-109 (+1.31)
Monday 28 October 2013
Live NFL - Seattle Seahawks at St Louis Rams 12.25am Eurosport
The Rams have lost Bradford and Seattle's brutal defense will be faced with Clemens under centre. Clemens boasts a career 51.8 completion percentage, 10 touchdowns and 16 turnovers and is going up against a Seahawks' D that tore through the Arizona offensive line last week, logging 7 sacks - each with different personnel.
Russell Wilson is playing well (he has thrown for 11 TDs, although he could turn the ball over less) and although the Rams have given Wilson trouble in the past, his O line is getting healthy and Chris Long seems to have lost a step.
Finally, the Rams rank 30th ypg against the run - hello, Marshawn Lynch. The Seahawks will smash it up the middle all night and the rest should fall into place behind.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -13 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Sea D/ST @ 3.75; Russell Wilson @ 4.5
Russell Wilson is playing well (he has thrown for 11 TDs, although he could turn the ball over less) and although the Rams have given Wilson trouble in the past, his O line is getting healthy and Chris Long seems to have lost a step.
Finally, the Rams rank 30th ypg against the run - hello, Marshawn Lynch. The Seahawks will smash it up the middle all night and the rest should fall into place behind.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -13 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Sea D/ST @ 3.75; Russell Wilson @ 4.5
Live MLB - Boston Red Sox at St Louis Cardinals 12am BT Sports
Last night's win (another bizarre ending) by Boston looked ominous for the Cards with Big Papi seemingly rallying the troops, and that sort of momentum, at this stage, is dangerous.
Another problem would seem to be Adam Wainwright's form; he struggled in Game 1, in contrast to Lester who has given up just five runs in 27 innings.
Interestingly though, Lester's worst outing was on the road, and Wainwright has been significantly stronger at home in the postseason. Also, Boston are hitting righties at .179 L5, whereas St Louis are hitting lefties at a .292 clip.
I'm opposing the herd!
Pick: St Louis Cardinals @ 2.2
102-108 (+2.31)
Another problem would seem to be Adam Wainwright's form; he struggled in Game 1, in contrast to Lester who has given up just five runs in 27 innings.
Interestingly though, Lester's worst outing was on the road, and Wainwright has been significantly stronger at home in the postseason. Also, Boston are hitting righties at .179 L5, whereas St Louis are hitting lefties at a .292 clip.
I'm opposing the herd!
Pick: St Louis Cardinals @ 2.2
102-108 (+2.31)
Sunday 27 October 2013
Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings 12.25am Channel 4
Rodgers making it work and the Vikes starting their third QB in three games.
Give the points.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -7 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Eddie Lacy @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Jarrett Boykin @ 2.25
Give the points.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -7 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Eddie Lacy @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Jarrett Boykin @ 2.25
Live MLB - Boston Red Sox at St Louis Cardinals 12.05am BT Sports
After lamenting my luck in the postseason, last night's bizarre ending must've been payback! The call was correct, but it summed up a weird series so far. Defense has been jettisoned and there's a lot of sloppy ball on view.
These teams are remarkably evenly matched, so any edge is marginal. In this game, I don't like the sound of Clay Buchholz's shoulder injury and I'm going to take the hint.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals @ 2.02
102-107 (+3.31)
These teams are remarkably evenly matched, so any edge is marginal. In this game, I don't like the sound of Clay Buchholz's shoulder injury and I'm going to take the hint.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals @ 2.02
102-107 (+3.31)
Live NFL - Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos 8.25pm Sky Sports
An interesting one this, in terms of the quarterbacks. Peyton Manning was suddenly human last week and the ball was coming out with less zip than we'd seen earlier in the season, whereas RGIII looked as though he was finally running into last season's form.
The problem for Washington is that they have a horrible defense, so they're going to give up chunks of yardage and points, especially with Reed Doughty and Brandon Meriweather missing with injury and suspension and Knowshon Moreno smashing it up the middle for Denver against a porous run D.
The question is, can Washington get within 11 points?
I have a feeling they can. Jordan Reed is developing nicely and Garcon is a legitimate threat. While Denver are brutal against the run (don't rule out the Morris/Helu combo, though, especially Helu close in) the Broncos are dead last in ypg in the NFL against the pass and with Champ Bailey sidelined, Shanahan and Griffin should be able to read option and pistol their way into the endzone.
There should be points.
Pick: Washington Redskins +11 @ 1.95
Pick: Over 57.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Knowshon Moreno @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Roy Helu @ 3.25; Jordan Reed @ 3.4
The problem for Washington is that they have a horrible defense, so they're going to give up chunks of yardage and points, especially with Reed Doughty and Brandon Meriweather missing with injury and suspension and Knowshon Moreno smashing it up the middle for Denver against a porous run D.
The question is, can Washington get within 11 points?
I have a feeling they can. Jordan Reed is developing nicely and Garcon is a legitimate threat. While Denver are brutal against the run (don't rule out the Morris/Helu combo, though, especially Helu close in) the Broncos are dead last in ypg in the NFL against the pass and with Champ Bailey sidelined, Shanahan and Griffin should be able to read option and pistol their way into the endzone.
There should be points.
Pick: Washington Redskins +11 @ 1.95
Pick: Over 57.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Knowshon Moreno @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Roy Helu @ 3.25; Jordan Reed @ 3.4
Live NFL - Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers 5pm Channel 4
Laying double digits in football is a surefire way to the poorhouse, but this is such an awful mismatch that I can't see any other pick.
The Jags have shown some spirit with the return from suspension of Justin Blackmon, but with that offensive line, the 49ers pass rush and the weather in London, even that hope seems extinguished.
This is a game best watched, but there might be a little value in the TD and exotic markets.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -14.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Colin Kaepernick @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Kendall Hunter @ 3.25; Colin Kaepernick @ 3
Pick: Total Sacks Over 5.5 @ 2.1
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (19-16, +3.53)
Totals (7-7, -0.51)
1st TD (6-19, +29.5)
Anytime TD (22-32, +0.59)
Season (+33.11)
The Jags have shown some spirit with the return from suspension of Justin Blackmon, but with that offensive line, the 49ers pass rush and the weather in London, even that hope seems extinguished.
This is a game best watched, but there might be a little value in the TD and exotic markets.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -14.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Colin Kaepernick @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Kendall Hunter @ 3.25; Colin Kaepernick @ 3
Pick: Total Sacks Over 5.5 @ 2.1
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (19-16, +3.53)
Totals (7-7, -0.51)
1st TD (6-19, +29.5)
Anytime TD (22-32, +0.59)
Season (+33.11)
Saturday 26 October 2013
Live MLB - Boston Red Sox at St Louis Cardinals 1am BT Sports
Peavy has been shaky on the road with a 5.56 ERA and has a 4.04 ERA in ten regular starts against the Boston Red.
For all the Cards sloppy defense, the move to an NL ballpark now sees Ortiz installed at first base and that will put the Red Sox' D under the spotlight.
Joe Kelly hasn't been ripping it up in the post-season and doesn't go deep into games, so the bullpen will need to step up, but he looks the bet.
I'll stay with St. Louis.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals @ 1.96
101-107 (+2.35)
For all the Cards sloppy defense, the move to an NL ballpark now sees Ortiz installed at first base and that will put the Red Sox' D under the spotlight.
Joe Kelly hasn't been ripping it up in the post-season and doesn't go deep into games, so the bullpen will need to step up, but he looks the bet.
I'll stay with St. Louis.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals @ 1.96
101-107 (+2.35)
Thursday 24 October 2013
Live NFL - Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.25am Sky Sports
Revis in a zone defense? A team that does that deserves to stink and the Bucs do. Ordinarily Revis would match up on Steve Smith, but this defensive nonsense may mean Smith finds room to operate - Carolina will hope so, because it's not the most thrilling offense in football. The Panthers are keeping Newton upright and he's making plays, but the visitors are limited on that side of the ball.
The tension on the home sideline and the tough injury situation make this look ominous for a winless Tampa Bay side. That's despite Mike Glennon showing some promise under centre and Vincent Jackson dominating downfield. The only worry is that Carolina can key on Jackson, confident in the fact that without a run game, the Bucs are one-dimensional; add in a poor offensive line, and they should struggle to move the ball. That said, in the TD markets, Vincent Jackson is just too good.
I'll give the points, but no more than 7.
Pick: Carolina Panthers -7 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Brandon LaFell @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Vincent Jackson @ 2.2; Steve Smith @ 2.5
The tension on the home sideline and the tough injury situation make this look ominous for a winless Tampa Bay side. That's despite Mike Glennon showing some promise under centre and Vincent Jackson dominating downfield. The only worry is that Carolina can key on Jackson, confident in the fact that without a run game, the Bucs are one-dimensional; add in a poor offensive line, and they should struggle to move the ball. That said, in the TD markets, Vincent Jackson is just too good.
I'll give the points, but no more than 7.
Pick: Carolina Panthers -7 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Brandon LaFell @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Vincent Jackson @ 2.2; Steve Smith @ 2.5
Live MLB - St Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox 1am BT Sports
Well, that went pretty much as I expected. I think I may be cursed, as the red birds descended into farce last night. You know you're in trouble when two Gold Glovers stand and watch a routine infield flyball drop between them!
John Lackey pitched beautifully last time out, but tonight he opposes the boy wonder, Michael Wacha. Wacha allowed one run on eight hits over 21 innings this postseason, striking out 22 and claiming the the NLCS MVP.
The Cardinals just have to settle down a little and play some steady ball.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals @ 2.1
100-107 (+1.25)
John Lackey pitched beautifully last time out, but tonight he opposes the boy wonder, Michael Wacha. Wacha allowed one run on eight hits over 21 innings this postseason, striking out 22 and claiming the the NLCS MVP.
The Cardinals just have to settle down a little and play some steady ball.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals @ 2.1
100-107 (+1.25)
Live MLB - St Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox 1am BT Sports
If anyone is still looking at this stuff (I've had a brutal post-season) the start of the World Series looks like a road dog bet.
Wainwright has been strong L3 and while Lester has been better in the playoffs after a disappointing 2013 campaign, St Louis look the value in this one.
Pick: St Louis Cardinals @ 2.15
100-106 (+2.25)
Wainwright has been strong L3 and while Lester has been better in the playoffs after a disappointing 2013 campaign, St Louis look the value in this one.
Pick: St Louis Cardinals @ 2.15
100-106 (+2.25)
Monday 21 October 2013
Live NFL - Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants 1.40am Eurosport
The Giants corpse twitched last week, it didn't take up its bed and walk, but there were moments of hope. Jacobs topped 100yds and it's clear that if Manning can get some time, he has the weapons downfield.
Luckily for the home team, the Vikings are awful on defense, particularly in the secondary, so some of that wideout New York talent might go off tonight.
Minnesota go through Peterson and the Giants actually defend the run pretty well. With Freeman starting at QB, there's a feeling that the pass game may improve, but it may not be enough.
New York to get off the schneid.
Pick: New York Giants -3.5 @ 2.05
Pick: 1st TD Ruben Randle @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Victor Cruz @ 2.25; Kyle Rudolph @ 3
-----------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (18-16, +2.48)
Totals (7-7, -0.51)
1st TD (6-18, +30.5)
Anytime TD (22-30, +2.59)
Season (+35.06)
Luckily for the home team, the Vikings are awful on defense, particularly in the secondary, so some of that wideout New York talent might go off tonight.
Minnesota go through Peterson and the Giants actually defend the run pretty well. With Freeman starting at QB, there's a feeling that the pass game may improve, but it may not be enough.
New York to get off the schneid.
Pick: New York Giants -3.5 @ 2.05
Pick: 1st TD Ruben Randle @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Victor Cruz @ 2.25; Kyle Rudolph @ 3
-----------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (18-16, +2.48)
Totals (7-7, -0.51)
1st TD (6-18, +30.5)
Anytime TD (22-30, +2.59)
Season (+35.06)
Sunday 20 October 2013
Live NFL - Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts 1.30am Ch4
Don't poke the Peyton.
Seriously, Jim, DON'T POKE THE PEYTON.
Pick: Denver Broncos -6 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Julius Thomas @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Eric Decker @ 2.88; Reggie Wayne @ 2.25
Seriously, Jim, DON'T POKE THE PEYTON.
Pick: Denver Broncos -6 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Julius Thomas @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Eric Decker @ 2.88; Reggie Wayne @ 2.25
Live NFL - Houston Texans at Kansas City 9.25am Sky Sports
I actually don't buy the Chiefs (6-0, shows what I know) but they are an aggressive, takeaway team and with the Texans' problems at QB, the home team are difficult to fade.
That said, presumably Case Keenum (who looks as though he'll start) will have a pretty straightforward gameplan, at least he'd better have, because Tamba Hali and Justin Houston will come marauding off the edge and the Chiefs' D will smell blood in the water tonight. Houston will pound the rock with Foster, but Kansas have tightened that aspect of their defense, so it'll be a tough go.
The Chiefs offense is a function of its defense in that they have the best average starting position in the NFL, so Alex Smith, as limited as he is, only needs to move it 30 yards to get into scoring position. Again, the run game will dominate, with Jamaal Charles effectively the whole Kansas offense.
I'd like to get on the Texans here, but the Kansas defense is just too scary for a rookie QB.
Oh, and this MUST go Under!!!
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 @ 1.95
Pick: Under 39.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Jamaal Charles @6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Arian Foster @ 2
That said, presumably Case Keenum (who looks as though he'll start) will have a pretty straightforward gameplan, at least he'd better have, because Tamba Hali and Justin Houston will come marauding off the edge and the Chiefs' D will smell blood in the water tonight. Houston will pound the rock with Foster, but Kansas have tightened that aspect of their defense, so it'll be a tough go.
The Chiefs offense is a function of its defense in that they have the best average starting position in the NFL, so Alex Smith, as limited as he is, only needs to move it 30 yards to get into scoring position. Again, the run game will dominate, with Jamaal Charles effectively the whole Kansas offense.
I'd like to get on the Texans here, but the Kansas defense is just too scary for a rookie QB.
Oh, and this MUST go Under!!!
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 @ 1.95
Pick: Under 39.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Jamaal Charles @6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Arian Foster @ 2
Week 7 NFL Teaser
Bears
Chiefs
Cowboys
Falcons
Dolphins
Patriots
49ers
Chargers
[Seahawks]
(0-6, -6)
Chiefs
Cowboys
Falcons
Dolphins
Patriots
49ers
Chargers
[Seahawks]
(0-6, -6)
Live NFL - Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions 6pm Sky Sports
It looks as though Megatron goes into this one as more than a decoy (even running routes as best he could on one knee last week, he dropped a TD pass) and that means that the rest of the Lions' offense becomes more potent: when teams are able to key on Reggie Bush, Matt Stafford's options are limited, with Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush is a game-changing threat running and catching. Cincinnati have a tough defense and the interior lineman are excellent, but concerns about the Detroit O line were allayed a little last week, but Stafford is playing some great football regardless.
The Bengals have weapons all over the place, but the problem is Dalton often makes poor decisions under centre. This seems to flow back and forth to the sidelines and the coaching decisions often look poorly judged too, making the team infuriatingly erratic. Detroit should bring pressure on Dalton (although they haven't exactly been tearing it up, they rank 26th with just 12 sacks) and if they can hurry him, they can slow an offense, led by the excellent A J Green, that really should be ranking better than 12th in total yards.
Outside of Megatron (whose fitness essentially decides the game) look for both sides' TEs to play a significant role; Cincinnati's as an outlet for Dalton (the Lions have struggled to cover TEs all season) and Joseph Fauria in the redzone for Detroit - his ability to win jump balls against defenders is scary and he's emerging as a favourite target for Stafford close in.
This isn't a game to get heavily involved in and (despite my awful totals' record!) the value looks the Overs in what should be a shoot-out in Ford Field.
Pick: Detroit Lions -1.5 @ 1.91
Pick: Over 46 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD A J Green @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Calvin Johnson @ 2; Joseph Fauria @ 3
The Bengals have weapons all over the place, but the problem is Dalton often makes poor decisions under centre. This seems to flow back and forth to the sidelines and the coaching decisions often look poorly judged too, making the team infuriatingly erratic. Detroit should bring pressure on Dalton (although they haven't exactly been tearing it up, they rank 26th with just 12 sacks) and if they can hurry him, they can slow an offense, led by the excellent A J Green, that really should be ranking better than 12th in total yards.
Outside of Megatron (whose fitness essentially decides the game) look for both sides' TEs to play a significant role; Cincinnati's as an outlet for Dalton (the Lions have struggled to cover TEs all season) and Joseph Fauria in the redzone for Detroit - his ability to win jump balls against defenders is scary and he's emerging as a favourite target for Stafford close in.
This isn't a game to get heavily involved in and (despite my awful totals' record!) the value looks the Overs in what should be a shoot-out in Ford Field.
Pick: Detroit Lions -1.5 @ 1.91
Pick: Over 46 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD A J Green @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Calvin Johnson @ 2; Joseph Fauria @ 3
Saturday 19 October 2013
Live MLB - LA Dodgers @ St Louis Cardinals 1am BT Sport
Kershaw. Wacha. Under.
This goes to game 7.
Pick: LA Dodgers @ 1.8
Pick: Under 5.5 @ 2.1
Thursday 17 October 2013
Live NFL - Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals 1.25am Sky Sports
Palmer likes to give the ball away and the Seahawks like taking it away!
Seattle has a decent pass rush and the prospect of Palmer, behind that O line, throwing against that secondary, trying to find a gimpy Fitz, is troubling. I really like Andre Ellington, but he'll find it tough tonight, forcing Palmer downfield.
The Cards do have a decent D and the short week plays well for the home team, but Lynch and Wilson can keep the chains moving. If Calais Campbell is out, that will hurt the Cardinals.
Palmer will throw at least two picks giving the Seahawks a short field, and Wilson can get it done - they look a TD better.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -4 @ 1.91
Pick: Under 41 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 6; Russell Wilson @ 21 (SJ)
Pick: Anytime TD Michael Floyd @ 4; Golden Tate @ 2.45
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (17-13, +3.67)
Totals (5-6, -1.37)
1st TD (4-15, +20)
Anytime TD (19-26, +4.71)
Season (+27.01)
Seattle has a decent pass rush and the prospect of Palmer, behind that O line, throwing against that secondary, trying to find a gimpy Fitz, is troubling. I really like Andre Ellington, but he'll find it tough tonight, forcing Palmer downfield.
The Cards do have a decent D and the short week plays well for the home team, but Lynch and Wilson can keep the chains moving. If Calais Campbell is out, that will hurt the Cardinals.
Palmer will throw at least two picks giving the Seahawks a short field, and Wilson can get it done - they look a TD better.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -4 @ 1.91
Pick: Under 41 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 6; Russell Wilson @ 21 (SJ)
Pick: Anytime TD Michael Floyd @ 4; Golden Tate @ 2.45
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (17-13, +3.67)
Totals (5-6, -1.37)
1st TD (4-15, +20)
Anytime TD (19-26, +4.71)
Season (+27.01)
Live MLB - Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers 1am ESPN
Sanchez is too good to resist at the price! He'll need to stop issuing so many walks, but looks the value pick here.
Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 1.9
99-104 (+3.25)
Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 1.9
99-104 (+3.25)
Live MLB - Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers 1am ESPN
I don't like Peavy in the post-season, and neither pitcher has a crash hot record against tonight's opposition.
Boston are hitting like they're swinging a toothpick, but these two teams were the top two run scoring teams in baseball.
Tonight's the night.
Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 1.91
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 1.97
Boston are hitting like they're swinging a toothpick, but these two teams were the top two run scoring teams in baseball.
Tonight's the night.
Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 1.91
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 1.97
Wednesday 16 October 2013
Live MLB - St Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers ESPN 9am
Well, this was the strategy; to get it back to Greinke and Kershaw at home to close it out. The problem is, it hasn't gone to plan, with the Dodgers' aces losing out in St. Louis - now it's win or go home for Los Angeles.
I'm going with the prices here: Greinke is barely touching 1.6 and with the finish line in sight, I'm going to roll with my pick to win it all. The Cardinals will be praying there's no replay of last year and that the Dodgers' bats stay cold.
I'll go Under too, on the basis of that light hitting and that Greinke can shut anyone down.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals @ 2.57
Pick: Under 7 @ 1.91
97-102 (+3.37)
I'm going with the prices here: Greinke is barely touching 1.6 and with the finish line in sight, I'm going to roll with my pick to win it all. The Cardinals will be praying there's no replay of last year and that the Dodgers' bats stay cold.
I'll go Under too, on the basis of that light hitting and that Greinke can shut anyone down.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals @ 2.57
Pick: Under 7 @ 1.91
97-102 (+3.37)
Live MLB - St Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers 1am BT Sport
All the games in the post-season are going under, but these two pitchers have been poor, with Nolasco posting a 2.33/12.75 WHIP/ERA L3.
I need the money.
Pick: St Louis Cardinals @ 2.24
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.0
I need the money.
Pick: St Louis Cardinals @ 2.24
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.0
Tuesday 15 October 2013
Live MLB - Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers 9.05pm ESPN
It's been a weird post-season - last night's bet was one I'd make every day, but the dog came through, again.
In this one, it's worth noting that Verlander's splits at home are significantly worse at home, and with Detroit's bullpen creaking, I'm going to fade the Tigers.
Pick: Boston Red Sox @ 2.35
95-101 (+1.78)
In this one, it's worth noting that Verlander's splits at home are significantly worse at home, and with Detroit's bullpen creaking, I'm going to fade the Tigers.
Pick: Boston Red Sox @ 2.35
95-101 (+1.78)
Monday 14 October 2013
Live MLB - St Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers 1.07am ESPN
Last night was a strange one.
Detroit 5 runs up going into the eighth and they blow the lead ... but it's courtesy of a salami from Ortiz ... who I'd tipped to go yard! I'd rather have the win, to be honest.
Tonight. St Louis with the momentum and Adam Wainwright on the hill, against a faltering Dodgers team with a shaky Hyun-Jin Ryu up?
Pick: St Louis @ 1.87
95-100 (+2.78)
Detroit 5 runs up going into the eighth and they blow the lead ... but it's courtesy of a salami from Ortiz ... who I'd tipped to go yard! I'd rather have the win, to be honest.
Tonight. St Louis with the momentum and Adam Wainwright on the hill, against a faltering Dodgers team with a shaky Hyun-Jin Ryu up?
Pick: St Louis @ 1.87
95-100 (+2.78)
Live NFL - Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers 1.40am Eurosport
I like Andrew Luck a lot; he has one of the most complete games of the new generation of quarterbacks and if I had to pick one of the group to anchor my franchise, it would be him.
The emergence of T Y Hilton to go alongside the veteran skills of Reggie Wayne, along with a strong ground game (Richardson needs to settle in quickly, now that Ahmad Bradshaw has gone down) means the Colts have nice balance on the offensive side.
Defensively, Indianapolis rank 5th YPG against the pass, and that bodes well against an undeniably strong Bolts' passing game and potentially the Colts can limit San Diego, who have a poor run game. Danny Woodhead is a fine back, but should be more effective catching out of the backfield tonight.
I'll give a point.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts -1 @ 1.91 (Sorry about the earlier error - thank you for the emails!)
Pick: 1st TD Coby Fleener @ 17
Pick: Anytime TD Reggie Wayne @ 2.2; T Y Hilton @ 2.62
The emergence of T Y Hilton to go alongside the veteran skills of Reggie Wayne, along with a strong ground game (Richardson needs to settle in quickly, now that Ahmad Bradshaw has gone down) means the Colts have nice balance on the offensive side.
Defensively, Indianapolis rank 5th YPG against the pass, and that bodes well against an undeniably strong Bolts' passing game and potentially the Colts can limit San Diego, who have a poor run game. Danny Woodhead is a fine back, but should be more effective catching out of the backfield tonight.
I'll give a point.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts -1 @ 1.91 (Sorry about the earlier error - thank you for the emails!)
Pick: 1st TD Coby Fleener @ 17
Pick: Anytime TD Reggie Wayne @ 2.2; T Y Hilton @ 2.62
Sunday 13 October 2013
Live NFL - Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys 1.30am Ch4
Everybody's hating on Romo and sees this as a let-down game making Dallas vulnerable (it's worth noting that Washington have covered the last six times straight in Dallas and are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 against the Cowboys) but the Washington secondary is still horrible, RGIII yet to return to form and Romo threw for a franchise-record 506 yards and five touchdowns last week fer chrissakes!
While it's true that Divisional dogs are dangerous, I'm not buying the road team in what should be another high-scoring game in Arlington.
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -5.5 @ 1.95
Pick: Over 51.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD RGIII @ 17
Pick: Anytime TD DeMarco Murray @ 2.0; Jason Witten @ 2.25; Pierre Garcon @ 2.38
While it's true that Divisional dogs are dangerous, I'm not buying the road team in what should be another high-scoring game in Arlington.
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -5.5 @ 1.95
Pick: Over 51.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD RGIII @ 17
Pick: Anytime TD DeMarco Murray @ 2.0; Jason Witten @ 2.25; Pierre Garcon @ 2.38
Live MLB - Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox 1am ESPN
Sanchez pitched well, in so far as he pitched six innings of no hit ball, but he issued six walks and Boston were really poor at bringing batters home.
Detroit look like they've come to play and I like their momentum. Scherzer can get it done here, making the Tigers the value.
(Big Papi has hit Scherzer hard, going yard three times in 15 at bats, so for a little fun, I'll put a lazy £1000 on him clearing the fences tonight)
Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 2.18
(Pick: David Ortiz to homer @ 2.75) That is a SCANDALOUSLY short price!
95-99 (+3.78)
Detroit look like they've come to play and I like their momentum. Scherzer can get it done here, making the Tigers the value.
(Big Papi has hit Scherzer hard, going yard three times in 15 at bats, so for a little fun, I'll put a lazy £1000 on him clearing the fences tonight)
Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 2.18
(Pick: David Ortiz to homer @ 2.75) That is a SCANDALOUSLY short price!
95-99 (+3.78)
Live NFL - New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots 9.25pm Sky Sports
I have the Saints at the top of the tree at the moment. The return of Sean Payton seems to have entirely reinvigorated the franchise and Brees is once more putting up ridiculous numbers. Pierre Thomas is beginning to flicker, running and catching out of the backfield and the New Orleans' run game can keep the chains moving tonight against a Pats' D that misses Wilfork. Darren Sproles seems to have lost ground to Thomas, but don't count him out.
Then there's Jimmy Graham. The regular reader of this blog will know I'm a great fan of Belichick and his ability to scheme solutions, but there's not really much you can do about Graham and if he draws Aqib Talib, then all the better for the rest of the offense.
New England are blessed, of course, with Tom Brady, but last week showed that physicality, particularly off the edges, destabilises the Pats' offense and the game ended Brady’s streak of 52 straight games with at least one touchdown pass. The Gronk is likely out which is bad news for Brady who was particularly stymied over the middle by the Bengals.
Then there's Jimmy Graham. The regular reader of this blog will know I'm a great fan of Belichick and his ability to scheme solutions, but there's not really much you can do about Graham and if he draws Aqib Talib, then all the better for the rest of the offense.
New England are blessed, of course, with Tom Brady, but last week showed that physicality, particularly off the edges, destabilises the Pats' offense and the game ended Brady’s streak of 52 straight games with at least one touchdown pass. The Gronk is likely out which is bad news for Brady who was particularly stymied over the middle by the Bengals.
The Pats' run game still struggles to get any rhythm and
Brady will have to make some plays happen downfield to get this done. I don't
like that situation against the Saints.
Pick: New Orleans Saints +2.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Darren Sproles @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Pierre Thomas @ 2.75; Marques Colston @
2.5
Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens 6pm Sky Sports
I think this turns on the Baltimore defense, who have been mean at home and will pressure the perpetually sacked Aaron Rodgers all afternoon.
Green Bay, for all their stellar performers on the offensive side of the ball, are stumbling a little in the red zone and Baltimore are ranked fourth in red zone defense.
The Ravens' front seven will bear down on a poor Packers' O line and Lacy will need to get going to slow that pass rush and allow Rodgers to spread the love among Cobb, Jones, Finley and Nelson. Baltimore need to blitz cannily, because Rodgers has the ability to step up and Jimmy Smith, Lardarius Webb and Corey Graham look over-matched deep, even if it's a question of sheer number of targets. However, Suggs is going to give David Bakhtiari fits and I suspect Rodgers will have a tough day.
The Baltimore O line has been a problem all season, but the arrival of Eugene Monroe should now pay dividends and that's important because Torrey Smith is tearing it up, Marlon Brown has talent and the Green Bay pass defense is awful.
Flacco is, well, Flacco, but he has been airing it out more and does have the talent; let's hope a little more time against a Pack D that is missing its key player in Clay Matthews (as well as Brad Jones and possibly Casey Hayward) will allow Flacco to show SB MVP form.
Feeding Ray Rice the rock should pay off too, with Green Bay likely softer against the run this week with linebackers down. The stats bear it out: if Ray Rice gets the pill, the Ravens are far more potent. Geddit?
I'll take the points at home.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens +3 @ 1.83
Pick: 1st TD Jermichael Finley @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Torrey Smith @ 2.25; James Jones @ 2.7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (15-11, +3.89)
Totals (5-5, -0.37)
1st TD (4-11, +24)
Anytime TD (19-20, +10.71)
Season (+38.23)
Green Bay, for all their stellar performers on the offensive side of the ball, are stumbling a little in the red zone and Baltimore are ranked fourth in red zone defense.
The Ravens' front seven will bear down on a poor Packers' O line and Lacy will need to get going to slow that pass rush and allow Rodgers to spread the love among Cobb, Jones, Finley and Nelson. Baltimore need to blitz cannily, because Rodgers has the ability to step up and Jimmy Smith, Lardarius Webb and Corey Graham look over-matched deep, even if it's a question of sheer number of targets. However, Suggs is going to give David Bakhtiari fits and I suspect Rodgers will have a tough day.
The Baltimore O line has been a problem all season, but the arrival of Eugene Monroe should now pay dividends and that's important because Torrey Smith is tearing it up, Marlon Brown has talent and the Green Bay pass defense is awful.
Flacco is, well, Flacco, but he has been airing it out more and does have the talent; let's hope a little more time against a Pack D that is missing its key player in Clay Matthews (as well as Brad Jones and possibly Casey Hayward) will allow Flacco to show SB MVP form.
Feeding Ray Rice the rock should pay off too, with Green Bay likely softer against the run this week with linebackers down. The stats bear it out: if Ray Rice gets the pill, the Ravens are far more potent. Geddit?
I'll take the points at home.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens +3 @ 1.83
Pick: 1st TD Jermichael Finley @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Torrey Smith @ 2.25; James Jones @ 2.7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (15-11, +3.89)
Totals (5-5, -0.37)
1st TD (4-11, +24)
Anytime TD (19-20, +10.71)
Season (+38.23)
Saturday 12 October 2013
Live MLB - Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox 1.07am BT Sport
The last meeting between these two was a 20-4 hammering by Boston, however Anibal Sanchez is probably able keep this under 20 as AL ERA leader.
That said, these pitchers have had differing fortunes down the stretch and Jon Lester looks like he has the edge here.
Pick: Boston Red Sox @ 1.91 (Bet365)
That said, these pitchers have had differing fortunes down the stretch and Jon Lester looks like he has the edge here.
Pick: Boston Red Sox @ 1.91 (Bet365)
Live MLB - Los Angeles Dodgers at St Louis Cardinals 9.05pm BT Sport
St Louis (or rather Calos Beltran) lived dangerously last night, but pulled off a thrilling extra innings win.
Clayton Kershaw is a pitcher I can't oppose - except maybe here. He's 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA in two meetings with the Cardinals this season and lifetime Kershaw is 4-6 (1-3 at Busch Stadium).
Meanwhile, Michael Wacha has been nothing short of astonishing, and almost fits one of my favourite betting situations - a rookie leftie power arm going against a lineup for the first time. He's a rightie, but the Dodgers have never seen him and he has gone 5-1, 1.03/2.62 WHIP/ERA and did not allow a run in three of five September starts .
Wacha beat the Bucs in the divisional elimination game, so he seems unfazed by pressure in the bigs.
I also like a little of the Overs, as everyone expects the under and the herd should be opposed, especially with potent offenses on both sides.
I notice an injured Ethier has paid the price in centre ...
Pick: St Louis Cardinals @ 2.29
Pick: Over 6 @ 2.0
94-97 (+4.47)
Clayton Kershaw is a pitcher I can't oppose - except maybe here. He's 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA in two meetings with the Cardinals this season and lifetime Kershaw is 4-6 (1-3 at Busch Stadium).
Meanwhile, Michael Wacha has been nothing short of astonishing, and almost fits one of my favourite betting situations - a rookie leftie power arm going against a lineup for the first time. He's a rightie, but the Dodgers have never seen him and he has gone 5-1, 1.03/2.62 WHIP/ERA and did not allow a run in three of five September starts .
Wacha beat the Bucs in the divisional elimination game, so he seems unfazed by pressure in the bigs.
I also like a little of the Overs, as everyone expects the under and the herd should be opposed, especially with potent offenses on both sides.
I notice an injured Ethier has paid the price in centre ...
Pick: St Louis Cardinals @ 2.29
Pick: Over 6 @ 2.0
94-97 (+4.47)
Friday 11 October 2013
Live MLB - Los Angeles Dodgers at St Louis Cardinals 1.30am ESPN
Highly paid superstars versus a pitching staff where half of the staff are rookies. I took the Cardinals a while ago, so I hope the youngsters can get it to Wainwright in the seventh!
Tonight will be a tough go against Greinke, but Kelly has been outstanding at home and St. Louis will be carrying some momentum in after the 'win or go home' game.
Besides, it's the Cards in October.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals @ 2.2
93-97 (+3.27)
Tonight will be a tough go against Greinke, but Kelly has been outstanding at home and St. Louis will be carrying some momentum in after the 'win or go home' game.
Besides, it's the Cards in October.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals @ 2.2
93-97 (+3.27)
Thursday 10 October 2013
Live MLB - Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics 1.05am ESPN
Three runs in the bottom of the 8th for the hook, again. I'm laughing through the tears.
Like yesterday, these two pitchers have blazing numbers, but with Detroit's bats finally showing signs of life, I'll take the price on Verlander and go Under, again. Gulp.
Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 1.95
Pick: Under 6.5 @ 1.87
91-97 (+1.45)
Like yesterday, these two pitchers have blazing numbers, but with Detroit's bats finally showing signs of life, I'll take the price on Verlander and go Under, again. Gulp.
Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 1.95
Pick: Under 6.5 @ 1.87
91-97 (+1.45)
Live NFL - New York Giants at Chicago Bears 1.25am Sky Sports
This looks like a tough spot for the G-Men.
Their run offense is on its knees, the O line stinks (Manning has been sacked 15 times) and the triggerman is throwing too many picks. Add that to a defense that is not pressuring the opposition QB, seems ponderous against the run (the Giants traded for Jon Beason this week for chrissakes!) and ranks 21st against the pass and things look bleak.
Matt Forte should have a big night and with Cutler given a little more time, a ticked off Brandon Marshall may go mediaeval on a New York secondary that won't be able to comfortably doube-team him as usual because Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett are just too dangerous. Chicago aren't too crash hot on defense either, so I expect the Giants to find the endzone, but not often enough to stay with their hosts.
Give the points.
Pick: Chicago Bears -7 @ 1.95 (BetVictor)
Pick: 1st TD Alshon Jeffery @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Matt Forte @ 2.0; Victor Cruz @ 2.5; Brandon Marshall @ 2.1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (15-10, +4.89)
Totals (5-5, -0.37)
1st TD (4-10, +25)
Anytime TD (18-18, +11.61)
Season (+41.3)
Their run offense is on its knees, the O line stinks (Manning has been sacked 15 times) and the triggerman is throwing too many picks. Add that to a defense that is not pressuring the opposition QB, seems ponderous against the run (the Giants traded for Jon Beason this week for chrissakes!) and ranks 21st against the pass and things look bleak.
Matt Forte should have a big night and with Cutler given a little more time, a ticked off Brandon Marshall may go mediaeval on a New York secondary that won't be able to comfortably doube-team him as usual because Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett are just too dangerous. Chicago aren't too crash hot on defense either, so I expect the Giants to find the endzone, but not often enough to stay with their hosts.
Give the points.
Pick: Chicago Bears -7 @ 1.95 (BetVictor)
Pick: 1st TD Alshon Jeffery @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Matt Forte @ 2.0; Victor Cruz @ 2.5; Brandon Marshall @ 2.1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATS (15-10, +4.89)
Totals (5-5, -0.37)
1st TD (4-10, +25)
Anytime TD (18-18, +11.61)
Season (+41.3)
Wednesday 9 October 2013
Live MLB - Pittsburgh Pirates at St Louis Cardinals 1am ESPN
These two pitchers are tearing it up, it's an NL Unders park. Hell, even Jim Joyce is 11-20 O/U behind home.
Pick: Under 6.5 @ 1.9
91-96 (+2.45)
Pick: Under 6.5 @ 1.9
91-96 (+2.45)
Live MLB - Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays 1.30am ESPN
This goes Over too.
Hellickson has been poor and Peavy gets a nosebleed in the post-season.
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.0
Hellickson has been poor and Peavy gets a nosebleed in the post-season.
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.0
Tuesday 8 October 2013
Live MLB - Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers 10pm ESPN
This is officially a crisis ... I'm slumping. No-one is pitching to their numbers and I'm haemorrhaging money.
So, I'm going to take the streak here and rely on Fister's labile performance and the fact that the A's have touched him up before. The weather's set fair and the ump's on our side, so I'll go Over too.
Pick: Oakland A's @ 2.37
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 1.85
90-94 (+3.60)
So, I'm going to take the streak here and rely on Fister's labile performance and the fact that the A's have touched him up before. The weather's set fair and the ump's on our side, so I'll go Over too.
Pick: Oakland A's @ 2.37
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 1.85
90-94 (+3.60)
Monday 7 October 2013
Live NFL - New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons 1.40am Eurosport
I just can't bring myself to lay double digits on MNF, but in truth this is not a game to bet on.
Atlanta have a whole slew of injuries on both sides of the ball, but are clearly the better team, particularly in the traditionally hostile Georgia Dome - Ryan to Jones and Gonzalez should keep the chains moving.
The Jets have a tough front seven and a decent defense overall, but Geno Smith has little to throw to (guys like Jeremy Kerley, Clyde Gates and Ryan Spadola) and the promising Bilal Powell may get ignored as New York play catch-up.
The Jets will lose, but like I say, I won't lay double digits on a Monday night.
Pick: New York Jets +10 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Tony Gonzalez @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Tony Gonzalez @ 2.0; Jacquizz Rodgers @ 2.5
Atlanta have a whole slew of injuries on both sides of the ball, but are clearly the better team, particularly in the traditionally hostile Georgia Dome - Ryan to Jones and Gonzalez should keep the chains moving.
The Jets have a tough front seven and a decent defense overall, but Geno Smith has little to throw to (guys like Jeremy Kerley, Clyde Gates and Ryan Spadola) and the promising Bilal Powell may get ignored as New York play catch-up.
The Jets will lose, but like I say, I won't lay double digits on a Monday night.
Pick: New York Jets +10 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Tony Gonzalez @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Tony Gonzalez @ 2.0; Jacquizz Rodgers @ 2.5
Live MLB - Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers 6pm ESPN
I'm hating on this post-season!
The pitching matchup here favours Detroit as they return home and if they can muster some offense (sub .200 L5 ain't getting it done) they should be comfortable winners with Oakland putting up a flagging Jarrod Parker who is 0-4 against the Tigers and got touched up for 8 runs in 3.1 innings of work last time he saw today's opposition.
I'll give the runs.
Pick: Detroit Tigers -1.5 @ 2.4
90-93 (+4.60)
The pitching matchup here favours Detroit as they return home and if they can muster some offense (sub .200 L5 ain't getting it done) they should be comfortable winners with Oakland putting up a flagging Jarrod Parker who is 0-4 against the Tigers and got touched up for 8 runs in 3.1 innings of work last time he saw today's opposition.
I'll give the runs.
Pick: Detroit Tigers -1.5 @ 2.4
90-93 (+4.60)
Sunday 6 October 2013
Live NFL - Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers 1.30am Ch4
Late night ...
Take the 49ers. Houston go through Foster and the San Francisco front can limit his effectiveness in this one.
The 49ers are also building a more sensible offensive gameplan for Kaepernick and have re-established Frank Gore.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -4 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Colin Kaepernick @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Frank Gore @ 2.38; Arian Foster @ 2.2; Vernon Davis @ 2.75
Take the 49ers. Houston go through Foster and the San Francisco front can limit his effectiveness in this one.
The 49ers are also building a more sensible offensive gameplan for Kaepernick and have re-established Frank Gore.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -4 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Colin Kaepernick @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Frank Gore @ 2.38; Arian Foster @ 2.2; Vernon Davis @ 2.75
Live MLB - St Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates 9.35pm ESPN
These two pitchers have been tough on tonight's opposition.
Liriano has been shut down at home, posting an incredible 1.47 ERA. Similarly, Joe Kelly has a 1.08 ERA in seven road starts.
I'll go Under.
Pick: Under 6.5 @ 2.1
90-92 (+5.60)
Liriano has been shut down at home, posting an incredible 1.47 ERA. Similarly, Joe Kelly has a 1.08 ERA in seven road starts.
I'll go Under.
Pick: Under 6.5 @ 2.1
90-92 (+5.60)
Live MLB - Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys 9.25pm Sky Sports
Denver.
Tough on both sides of the ball and Manning is in the form of his life. Keep it simple.
Pick: Denver Broncos -7 @ 1.83
Pick: 1st TD Julius Thomas @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Knowshon Moreno @ 2.2
Tough on both sides of the ball and Manning is in the form of his life. Keep it simple.
Pick: Denver Broncos -7 @ 1.83
Pick: 1st TD Julius Thomas @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Knowshon Moreno @ 2.2
Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins 6pm Sky Sports
Capping the Ravens. I just can't do it.
Flacco is terrifying as a betting proposition at the best of times and now with his offensive line in disarray and peculiar calls coming in from the sidelines and rattling around in his head, anything can happen.
Flacco threw a bunch of picks last week, but spent the whole game under pressure as the line collapsed; Miami need to get Cameron Wake on the field as the beating heart of the pass rush, but he'll be limited even if he does go.
The Ravens have to get Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce rolling. The Fins' front is decent against the run, but Rice catching and running out of the backfield will allow Flacco to operate much more efficiently. Last week, because of the collapse of the left side, Rice kept getting dropped into protection, completely removing him from the offense.
The newly acquired Monroe will offer more if he plays, and I suspect they'll want to plug him in ASAP. Torrey Smith is having a standout season and he'll draw Brent Grimes, but he can still have a big game, particularly if Flacco does get more protection.
If Flacco is vulnerable behind an under-performing line (12 sacks) then Tannehill is in imminent danger of getting denogginised. Miami have given up an NFL leading 18 sacks and will face Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil who have points to prove after being successfully corralled by the Bills last week.
Tannehill throws it a lot, but may find his opportunities reduced with limited time in the pocket; this is doubly dangerous, as he tends to turn the ball over under pressure. Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline don't inspire, largely because their QB seems to struggle to get on the same page.
The Miami O line did manage to create space for the ground game and, like the Ravens, it seems the obvious offensive starting point for the Dolphins O. Here though, the coaching staff need to understand that Lamar Miller is the future and Daniel Thomas is not!
I don't like the home team in this spot, but Baltimore can be anything on any given day. However, I expect the defending champs to show up today, and bounce back against an over-performing Miami side heading into a bye week.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens +3 @ 1.83
(13-9, +3.24)
Pick: Under 43.5 @ 1.91
(5-4, +0.63)
Pick: 1st TD Dallas Clark @ 17
(4-8, +27)
Pick: Anytime TD Torrey Smith @ 2.62; Ray Rice @ 2.5
(13-15, +7.28)
Flacco is terrifying as a betting proposition at the best of times and now with his offensive line in disarray and peculiar calls coming in from the sidelines and rattling around in his head, anything can happen.
Flacco threw a bunch of picks last week, but spent the whole game under pressure as the line collapsed; Miami need to get Cameron Wake on the field as the beating heart of the pass rush, but he'll be limited even if he does go.
The Ravens have to get Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce rolling. The Fins' front is decent against the run, but Rice catching and running out of the backfield will allow Flacco to operate much more efficiently. Last week, because of the collapse of the left side, Rice kept getting dropped into protection, completely removing him from the offense.
The newly acquired Monroe will offer more if he plays, and I suspect they'll want to plug him in ASAP. Torrey Smith is having a standout season and he'll draw Brent Grimes, but he can still have a big game, particularly if Flacco does get more protection.
If Flacco is vulnerable behind an under-performing line (12 sacks) then Tannehill is in imminent danger of getting denogginised. Miami have given up an NFL leading 18 sacks and will face Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil who have points to prove after being successfully corralled by the Bills last week.
Tannehill throws it a lot, but may find his opportunities reduced with limited time in the pocket; this is doubly dangerous, as he tends to turn the ball over under pressure. Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline don't inspire, largely because their QB seems to struggle to get on the same page.
The Miami O line did manage to create space for the ground game and, like the Ravens, it seems the obvious offensive starting point for the Dolphins O. Here though, the coaching staff need to understand that Lamar Miller is the future and Daniel Thomas is not!
I don't like the home team in this spot, but Baltimore can be anything on any given day. However, I expect the defending champs to show up today, and bounce back against an over-performing Miami side heading into a bye week.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens +3 @ 1.83
(13-9, +3.24)
Pick: Under 43.5 @ 1.91
(5-4, +0.63)
Pick: 1st TD Dallas Clark @ 17
(4-8, +27)
Pick: Anytime TD Torrey Smith @ 2.62; Ray Rice @ 2.5
(13-15, +7.28)
Saturday 5 October 2013
Live MLB - Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox 10.30pm BT Sport
The Rays were unusually sloppy last night, and got punished pretty severely. That result may have lengthened the odds on the away team tonight, but whatever the reason, Tampa Bay look good value again tonight.
(David) Price is 10-6 with a 2.93 ERA in 20 career starts against the Red Sox, including a 6-1 mark with a 1.88 ERA in 10 games in Boston. He was 2-0 in three starts there this year while limiting the Red Sox to three runs on solo homers over 22 1/3 innings. He threw a five-hitter in a 5-1 win in Boston on July 24.
John Lackey is 3-5 with a 6.70 ERA in nine starts versus the Rays since joining the Red Sox in 2010.
It's that straightforward.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ 1.91
90-91 (+6.60)
(David) Price is 10-6 with a 2.93 ERA in 20 career starts against the Red Sox, including a 6-1 mark with a 1.88 ERA in 10 games in Boston. He was 2-0 in three starts there this year while limiting the Red Sox to three runs on solo homers over 22 1/3 innings. He threw a five-hitter in a 5-1 win in Boston on July 24.
John Lackey is 3-5 with a 6.70 ERA in nine starts versus the Rays since joining the Red Sox in 2010.
It's that straightforward.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ 1.91
90-91 (+6.60)
Friday 4 October 2013
Live MLB - Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics 2.30am BT Sports
These two pitchers have had stellar regular seasons, going a combined 39-9 and posting sub-three ERAs.
Detroit are on a three game losing skid and their totemic leader on offense is carrying an injury. With the Tigers hitting righties at .188 (.211 0verall) L5, Oakland look the value in the opener with the Coliseum rocking.
Pick: Oakland Athletics @ 2.13
Pick: Under 6.5 @ 2.05
Detroit are on a three game losing skid and their totemic leader on offense is carrying an injury. With the Tigers hitting righties at .188 (.211 0verall) L5, Oakland look the value in the opener with the Coliseum rocking.
Pick: Oakland Athletics @ 2.13
Pick: Under 6.5 @ 2.05
Live MLB - Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves 11pm BT Sports
Mike Minor struggled a little down the stretch, but he is 1-1 with a 2.32 ERA in five career starts against the Dodgers (all quality starts) including a 1-0 mark and 2.25 ERA in two outings this season.
With LA struggling against left-handed pitching this term (they're hitting them at a .125 clip L5) the Braves look a nice bet at home.
Pick: Atlanta Braves @ 2.0
With LA struggling against left-handed pitching this term (they're hitting them at a .125 clip L5) the Braves look a nice bet at home.
Pick: Atlanta Braves @ 2.0
Live MLB - Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox 8pm ESPN
Matt Moore as a dog on the road? He's 10-1 with a 1.29/2.74 WHIP/ERA on his travels this season and the Rays are 14-2 on the road when Moore starts.
Jon Lester was 2-1 with a 4.32 ERA against the Rays this season and went 0-2 against the Rays in the 2008 ALCS.
Tampa Bay look knocking value here.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ 2.35
Jon Lester was 2-1 with a 4.32 ERA against the Rays this season and went 0-2 against the Rays in the 2008 ALCS.
Tampa Bay look knocking value here.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ 2.35
Live MLB - Pittsburgh Pirates at St Louis Cardinals 6pm ESPN
The Cards look ominously set (I've taken them to go all the way) and I hesitate to oppose them, but looking at the numbers in this matchup, the pitchers have remarkably similar recent records, save for the fact that Lynn went 2-1 with a 5.60 ERA in five starts versus the Pirates this season.
I'm going to take the dog here and look for the rookie, coming off eight quality starts in a row, to bring the Bucs home.
I'll also take the Under with Lynn's splits at home.
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates @ 2.2
Pick Under 7 @ 2.0
87-88 (+6.35)
I'm going to take the dog here and look for the rookie, coming off eight quality starts in a row, to bring the Bucs home.
I'll also take the Under with Lynn's splits at home.
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates @ 2.2
Pick Under 7 @ 2.0
87-88 (+6.35)
Thursday 3 October 2013
Live NFL - Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns 1.25am Sky Sports
Two teams who have surprised this season, with the Bills' up-tempo offense rolling into Cleveland.
Buffalo rank second in average yards per game on the ground and this reflects E J Manuel's fairly limited passing game and he'll be hard pressed tonight if he tries to beat the Browns with his arm. Worse still, Cleveland have been tough against the run, ranking fourth, and both Spiller and Jackson are carrying injuries coming off a short week.
The Browns are ticking nicely on offense, with the emergence of Hoyer under centre and Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon downfield. Again, this doesn't bode well for the visitors who are nicked up and missing bodies in the secondary.
The hope for the Bills is that they can limit Hoyer by getting the pass rush home, because forcing Cleveland to their unsettled run game will slow them considerably and for all his success, Hoyer hasn't Weeden's arm. Buffalo gave Joe Flacco a torrid time last week (that cost me real money!) so it won't all be easy sledding.
On balance, I like the favourites here, in what should be a low scoring affair.
Pick: Under 41.5 @ 1.91
(5-3, +1.63)
Pick: 1st TD Davone Bess @ 17
(4-17, +28)
Buffalo rank second in average yards per game on the ground and this reflects E J Manuel's fairly limited passing game and he'll be hard pressed tonight if he tries to beat the Browns with his arm. Worse still, Cleveland have been tough against the run, ranking fourth, and both Spiller and Jackson are carrying injuries coming off a short week.
The Browns are ticking nicely on offense, with the emergence of Hoyer under centre and Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon downfield. Again, this doesn't bode well for the visitors who are nicked up and missing bodies in the secondary.
The hope for the Bills is that they can limit Hoyer by getting the pass rush home, because forcing Cleveland to their unsettled run game will slow them considerably and for all his success, Hoyer hasn't Weeden's arm. Buffalo gave Joe Flacco a torrid time last week (that cost me real money!) so it won't all be easy sledding.
On balance, I like the favourites here, in what should be a low scoring affair.
Pick: Cleveland Browns -3.5 @ 1.95
(12-9, +2.29)
(12-9, +2.29)
Pick: Under 41.5 @ 1.91
(5-3, +1.63)
Pick: 1st TD Davone Bess @ 17
(4-17, +28)
Pick: Anytime TD Josh Gordon @ 2.1; Fred Jackson @ 2.62
(11-15, +5.26)
(11-15, +5.26)
Wednesday 2 October 2013
Live MLB - Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians 1am ESPN
I like Alex Cobb and I'm going to go by the numbers and take him to beat the tribe tonight. Both teams have momentum going in, but I'm not so sure about Danny Salazar, and if Bourn is carrying an injury, Cleveland is missing speed at the top of the order.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ 1.91
86-88 (+5.44)
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ 1.91
86-88 (+5.44)
Tuesday 1 October 2013
Live MLB - Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates 1.05am ESPN
Johnny Cueto is 8-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 13 career starts at Pittsburgh’s PNC Park and this season he has a terrifying 0.4/0.73 WHIP/ERA in the Buc's backyard.
Francisco Liriano is 8-1 with a 1.47 ERA in 11 starts at home, but has posted 5.14 ERA in September and gone 0-3 with a 3.70 ERA against the Reds this term.
I'll take the price on the Reds, even with the streaks playing against them, and take the Unders too, with Cincinnati struggling against lefties and Pittsburgh not renowned for their offense (they've scored the fewest runs of any playoff team.)
Pick: Cincinnati Reds @ 2.25
Pick: Under 6.5 @ 1.87
86-86 (+7.44)
Francisco Liriano is 8-1 with a 1.47 ERA in 11 starts at home, but has posted 5.14 ERA in September and gone 0-3 with a 3.70 ERA against the Reds this term.
I'll take the price on the Reds, even with the streaks playing against them, and take the Unders too, with Cincinnati struggling against lefties and Pittsburgh not renowned for their offense (they've scored the fewest runs of any playoff team.)
Pick: Cincinnati Reds @ 2.25
Pick: Under 6.5 @ 1.87
86-86 (+7.44)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)