I'm looking forward to what could be an ill-tempered shoot out in the
Georgia Dome. There's the must-win Saints against the avenging Falcons -
and just for a little added piquancy, the Saints' bus was egged by
staff at the Atlanta airport!
Atlanta have a fearsome passing offense and that can't be good news
for a Saints defense that ranks 30th against the pass. New Orleans also
struggle against the run, but the Falcons have failed to get their
ground game going; this could be the opportunity though, for Jacquizz
Rodgers to finally wrest the lead back mantle from the cumbersome
Michael Turner - although Turner still gets the ball close in, if you're
looking at the TD market. Rodgers has begun to catch out of the
backfield too, but while all this might suggest there's a significant
Atlanta ground attack, the truth is, it's still not that effective.
Rather, it is Matt Ryan to Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony
Gonzalez that makes the home team so potent on offense. They murdered
the Saints in their last meeting, and although there have been signs of
life from the New Orleans' secondary, they are still weak. There's no
Saints' pass rush to really worry Ryan, so he'll have time to find his
targets.
Drew Brees has a similar array of talent to throw to; Marques
Colston, Lance Moore and Jimmy Graham are every bit as dangerous as the
Falcons receivers and, although Atlanta have allowed only two multiple
TD games all season (ranking a very respectable 13th in ypg) their
ability to control wideouts is undermined by Jimmy Graham who matches up
well over the middle - Atlanta may have Stephen Nicholas and Sean
Weatherspoon back, and they'll need them.
New Orleans have Darren Sproles back and that adds to the Saints'
backfield, because he brings variation catching the ball. Atlanta have
beefed up their run defense and it's worth noting their success against
the explosive Doug Martin last week, but it is crucial New Orleans get
something going on the ground.
Some notes: Since 2008, the Falcons are 31-7 record at home, but
three of those losses are to the Saints. Atlanta haven't beaten New
Orleans in the Georgia Dome since 2008.
The money has come for the visitors (largely, I suspect, on the
basis of those stats) but like every shoot out in football, what you
have to decide is who is going to make that rare defensive stop, and
Atlanta looks the most likely tonight.
I'll give the points.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 9; Julio Jones @ 9.5
Pick: Anytime TD Atlanta DST @ 4.5
Thursday 29 November 2012
Monday 26 November 2012
Live NFL - Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles BBC Red Button 1.40am
Great, a disastrous weekend of football betting is topped off with this rotten game!
Cam Newton is having a very tough (and unpredictable) season, while the Eagles have Nick Foles under centre again, behind an O line that is falling apart. Foles would usually look to hand it off to LeSean McCoy, but he's also out with a concussion.
The Panthers should be able to attack the Eagles' secondary, which is poor: Philadelphia don't have much of a pass rush, so there shouldn't be much pressure: look for Steve Smith to score. If Carolina can mix Jonathan Stewart into the run game, along with Newton (RGIII gashed the Eagles) they should come out on top, but decision making on and off the field has been a problem for Carolina this season and the results have followed.
A horrible game to pick, but I'll take my final pennies and give a field goal.
Pick: Carolina Panthers -3 @ 1.9
Pick: 1st TD Cam Newton @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.3
Cam Newton is having a very tough (and unpredictable) season, while the Eagles have Nick Foles under centre again, behind an O line that is falling apart. Foles would usually look to hand it off to LeSean McCoy, but he's also out with a concussion.
The Panthers should be able to attack the Eagles' secondary, which is poor: Philadelphia don't have much of a pass rush, so there shouldn't be much pressure: look for Steve Smith to score. If Carolina can mix Jonathan Stewart into the run game, along with Newton (RGIII gashed the Eagles) they should come out on top, but decision making on and off the field has been a problem for Carolina this season and the results have followed.
A horrible game to pick, but I'll take my final pennies and give a field goal.
Pick: Carolina Panthers -3 @ 1.9
Pick: 1st TD Cam Newton @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.3
Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at New York Giants 1.30am Ch4
Since 2007, the Packers are 19-5 against the spread as underdogs: I'm
not a great fan of this kind of stat, but in this case it sums up my
feelings about this game.
The Giants have looked poor of late and Manning has been out of sync with the rest of his offense. The Packers' secondary is soft, but as an entire stop unit, they operate pretty efficiently. Even missing Clay Matthews they can mount a decent pass rush and the Giants have problems along the offensive line. Bradshaw is banged up: look for Andre Brown to get touches.
The Packers' run game isn't too pretty either, but Rodgers should be able to get after a middling secondary and I expect him and his receivers to put up numbers: look for Randall Cobb.
I'll take the points.
Pick: Green Bay Packers +2 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Randall Cobb @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Andre Brown @ 2.38
The Giants have looked poor of late and Manning has been out of sync with the rest of his offense. The Packers' secondary is soft, but as an entire stop unit, they operate pretty efficiently. Even missing Clay Matthews they can mount a decent pass rush and the Giants have problems along the offensive line. Bradshaw is banged up: look for Andre Brown to get touches.
The Packers' run game isn't too pretty either, but Rodgers should be able to get after a middling secondary and I expect him and his receivers to put up numbers: look for Randall Cobb.
I'll take the points.
Pick: Green Bay Packers +2 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Randall Cobb @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Andre Brown @ 2.38
Sunday 25 November 2012
Live NFL San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints Sky Sports 9.30pm
I said at the beginning of the season that I thought the Saints would be
OK, despite 'Bountygate' - only for New Orleans to look completely
lost. Luckily, they seem to have put that behind them now and are
building up a head of steam that could see them go above .500 with a win
today.
Colin Kaepernick was outstanding last week; with a straightforward gameplan, he executed and the 49ers offense looked great. The Saints defense will find it difficult tonight, with an offense with power on the ground and targets deep that can get plenty of separation against guys like Patrick Robinson and Jabari Greer.
New Orleans need to pressure Kaepernick, but they don't have much of a pass rush. Frank gore will be going up against Jonathan Vilma, Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne - a linebacking corps that is improving (and getting fit) recently and this reflects the general improvement of the Saints on defense.
Drew Brees and his offense are beginning to look like who they ought to be, and although San Francisco are one of the toughest stop units around, if they have a weakness, it is vertically. I suspect what has been a promising New Orleans run game will be choked off, but deeper, Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham and Lance Moore could prosper.
The 49ers are shifting time zones off a short week against a powerful offense that has momentum. It should be a great game, but I'll take the points.
Pick: New Orleans Saints +2 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Michael Crabtree @ 2.1
Colin Kaepernick was outstanding last week; with a straightforward gameplan, he executed and the 49ers offense looked great. The Saints defense will find it difficult tonight, with an offense with power on the ground and targets deep that can get plenty of separation against guys like Patrick Robinson and Jabari Greer.
New Orleans need to pressure Kaepernick, but they don't have much of a pass rush. Frank gore will be going up against Jonathan Vilma, Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne - a linebacking corps that is improving (and getting fit) recently and this reflects the general improvement of the Saints on defense.
Drew Brees and his offense are beginning to look like who they ought to be, and although San Francisco are one of the toughest stop units around, if they have a weakness, it is vertically. I suspect what has been a promising New Orleans run game will be choked off, but deeper, Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham and Lance Moore could prosper.
The 49ers are shifting time zones off a short week against a powerful offense that has momentum. It should be a great game, but I'll take the points.
Pick: New Orleans Saints +2 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Michael Crabtree @ 2.1
Live NFL - Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears - Sky Sports 6pm
Cutler is back (hands up who thought that would be the Bears' best news
of the season!) but there's little doubt that behind a horrible
offensive line, Jay cobbles together an attack that at least threatens
to score where others can't; Jason Campbell was unlucky to come up
against the 49ers, but he looked awful and part of the reason was the
constant pressure he was under.
It's not going to be a stroll for Cutler with Jared Allen and Brian Robison coming after him, but he should be able to get the ball to Brandon Marshall rather more often, and Marshall matches up nicely this week with his size advantage. Of course, Matt Forte is critical to the offense and he'll see the rock a lot, but Chicago need to get him catching out of the backfield; the Vikes' linebackers are OK in run D but are less good in coverage.
The Minnesota offense is Adrian Peterson. Christian Ponder hasn't been good, and with Percy Harvin still out, the passing game is on the downward curve. The visitors will need to vary the point of attack, and Kyle Rudolph has begun to emerge as a threat, so look for him catching, particularly as that means Minnesota don't need to try and beat the tough Chicago corners. Julius Peppers and his buddies will be keen to show they are as advertised after last week, but note that much of San Francisco's success was a result of the Bears stacking the box against the run and they'll have to do the same today with 'All Day' on duty, so Ponder will have chances.
It's really about AP; if he gets going, the Vikings can prosper and control the tempo of the game. I suspect they'll succeed, so I'll take the points.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings +6 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Adrian Peterson @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Matt Forte @ 2; Kyle Rudolph @ 2.62
It's not going to be a stroll for Cutler with Jared Allen and Brian Robison coming after him, but he should be able to get the ball to Brandon Marshall rather more often, and Marshall matches up nicely this week with his size advantage. Of course, Matt Forte is critical to the offense and he'll see the rock a lot, but Chicago need to get him catching out of the backfield; the Vikes' linebackers are OK in run D but are less good in coverage.
The Minnesota offense is Adrian Peterson. Christian Ponder hasn't been good, and with Percy Harvin still out, the passing game is on the downward curve. The visitors will need to vary the point of attack, and Kyle Rudolph has begun to emerge as a threat, so look for him catching, particularly as that means Minnesota don't need to try and beat the tough Chicago corners. Julius Peppers and his buddies will be keen to show they are as advertised after last week, but note that much of San Francisco's success was a result of the Bears stacking the box against the run and they'll have to do the same today with 'All Day' on duty, so Ponder will have chances.
It's really about AP; if he gets going, the Vikings can prosper and control the tempo of the game. I suspect they'll succeed, so I'll take the points.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings +6 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Adrian Peterson @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Matt Forte @ 2; Kyle Rudolph @ 2.62
Friday 23 November 2012
Live NFL - New England Patriots at New York Jets - Sky Sports 1.20am
The Patriots have the sort of balanced offense I like to see in teams I bet on; their success on the ground complements nicely Brady's talent in hitting a gifted receiving corps. Losing Gronkowski is a blow (and although Hernandez is back, he's a different animal to the Gronk) but if anyone can re-jig an offense, it's Belichik. The Jets are solid against the pass, but soft against the run and it's likely that the familiar pattern of softening up a defense on the ground, before attacking them through the air, will be the order of the day.
Mark Sanchez must be one of the most put-upon QBs in the league, but he's shown some backbone to turn in some decent performances. If there was ever a game where he had the opportunity to put up numbers, it's today; New England's secondary is dire and even the addition of Aqib Talib doesn't address the fundamental shortcomings of a defense ranked 30th against the pass.
Jeremy Kerley, Chaz Schilens and Dustin Keller will get opportunities, but it's a question of whether they can keep moving the chains with the run too. Shonn Greene is a decent back and the Pats are by no means a shutdown run D, so it'll be interesting to see how the Jets balance their play calling; what is critical is that they execute, because they'll need to be at full throttle.
With new England injured and off a short week, I'm tempted by the Jets, but I still have the visitors by a TD.
Pick: New England Patriots -6.5 @1.83
Pick: 1st TD Wes Welker @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Shonn Greene @ 2.25; Jeremy Kerley @ 2.65
Mark Sanchez must be one of the most put-upon QBs in the league, but he's shown some backbone to turn in some decent performances. If there was ever a game where he had the opportunity to put up numbers, it's today; New England's secondary is dire and even the addition of Aqib Talib doesn't address the fundamental shortcomings of a defense ranked 30th against the pass.
Jeremy Kerley, Chaz Schilens and Dustin Keller will get opportunities, but it's a question of whether they can keep moving the chains with the run too. Shonn Greene is a decent back and the Pats are by no means a shutdown run D, so it'll be interesting to see how the Jets balance their play calling; what is critical is that they execute, because they'll need to be at full throttle.
With new England injured and off a short week, I'm tempted by the Jets, but I still have the visitors by a TD.
Pick: New England Patriots -6.5 @1.83
Pick: 1st TD Wes Welker @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Shonn Greene @ 2.25; Jeremy Kerley @ 2.65
Thursday 22 November 2012
Live NFL - Thanksgiving Games
Houston Texans at Detroit Lions - Sky Sports 5.30pm
Last week the Texans got it going through the air, but I expect them to revert to type today and key on Arian Foster who can take advantage of the Lions' defense's tendency to over-pursue. The Jags loaded up the box last week and limited Foster nicely, and the Detroit run defense has had its moments, but Schaub's ability to air it out and a defensive inconsistency against the run means that Houston should be able to move the chains.
The Detroit inconsistency on D is reflected on the offense; Stafford has had a patchy season and was poor last week. That spread to the rest of the offense and culminated with Titus Young having a hissy fit on the sidelines which sees him benched today. The Texans were lit up by Chad Henne last week, which is not a good sign, but J.J. Watt is playing out of his mind (and the Pack got to Stafford last week without Clay Matthews) and I'm looking for a rebound performance this week.
I'll give the points.
Pick: Houston Texans -3 @ 1.86
Pick: 1st TD Arian Foster @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Owen Daniels @ 2.1
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys - Sky Sports 9.30pm
Shanny and RBs: the guy is a genius. If Washington get Alfred Morris rolling tonight, Dallas could be in trouble, and with the Cowboys' D line a little nicked up, the home team could struggle to put together a scheme that limits Morris and Robert Griffin III on the ground. RG3 can also look to exploit a Dallas secondary that has occasionally missed, particularly corner Morris Claiborne. How the Redskins cope with the Dallas pass rush will be critical, but RG3's talent out of the pocket will be a powerful advantage.
Tony Romo in November: 21 and 3. Ouch. Washington have been vulnerable deep, but over the last three games they've been much better. The intriguing aspect here will be whether Romo will be hobbled by the loss of key players on the Dallas O line; the Cowboys are down to their third string centre and Left Tackle Tyron Smith is injured. Dallas have given up sacks of late and if the away team can force them into 3rd and long situations, then Jim Haslett can dial up blitz packages to force Romo into mistakes. The Dallas run game is still a mess, so it will be up to Romo to win it; look for the Cowboys' wideouts to score therefore.
It's always difficult capping your own team, but I think the Redskins can keep this close, so I'll take the points.
Pick: Washington Redskins +3.5 @ 1.85
Pick: 1st TD Robert Griffin III @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Miles Austin @ 2
Last week the Texans got it going through the air, but I expect them to revert to type today and key on Arian Foster who can take advantage of the Lions' defense's tendency to over-pursue. The Jags loaded up the box last week and limited Foster nicely, and the Detroit run defense has had its moments, but Schaub's ability to air it out and a defensive inconsistency against the run means that Houston should be able to move the chains.
The Detroit inconsistency on D is reflected on the offense; Stafford has had a patchy season and was poor last week. That spread to the rest of the offense and culminated with Titus Young having a hissy fit on the sidelines which sees him benched today. The Texans were lit up by Chad Henne last week, which is not a good sign, but J.J. Watt is playing out of his mind (and the Pack got to Stafford last week without Clay Matthews) and I'm looking for a rebound performance this week.
I'll give the points.
Pick: Houston Texans -3 @ 1.86
Pick: 1st TD Arian Foster @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Owen Daniels @ 2.1
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys - Sky Sports 9.30pm
Shanny and RBs: the guy is a genius. If Washington get Alfred Morris rolling tonight, Dallas could be in trouble, and with the Cowboys' D line a little nicked up, the home team could struggle to put together a scheme that limits Morris and Robert Griffin III on the ground. RG3 can also look to exploit a Dallas secondary that has occasionally missed, particularly corner Morris Claiborne. How the Redskins cope with the Dallas pass rush will be critical, but RG3's talent out of the pocket will be a powerful advantage.
Tony Romo in November: 21 and 3. Ouch. Washington have been vulnerable deep, but over the last three games they've been much better. The intriguing aspect here will be whether Romo will be hobbled by the loss of key players on the Dallas O line; the Cowboys are down to their third string centre and Left Tackle Tyron Smith is injured. Dallas have given up sacks of late and if the away team can force them into 3rd and long situations, then Jim Haslett can dial up blitz packages to force Romo into mistakes. The Dallas run game is still a mess, so it will be up to Romo to win it; look for the Cowboys' wideouts to score therefore.
It's always difficult capping your own team, but I think the Redskins can keep this close, so I'll take the points.
Pick: Washington Redskins +3.5 @ 1.85
Pick: 1st TD Robert Griffin III @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Miles Austin @ 2
Tuesday 20 November 2012
Last night's pick ...
As a couple of people have noticed, I really stepped it up last night by picking a baseball team to beat the Bears!
It had been a long day and I was rushing a preview out before collapsing into bed - sorry 'bout that. Hopefully, those of you foolhardy enough to follow my tips figured it out.
Also, I've had a question about the italicised picks; they are simply if you fancy a bit of in-game interest and can be happily ignored, the primary pick is always the one against the spread.
Thanks.
It had been a long day and I was rushing a preview out before collapsing into bed - sorry 'bout that. Hopefully, those of you foolhardy enough to follow my tips figured it out.
Also, I've had a question about the italicised picks; they are simply if you fancy a bit of in-game interest and can be happily ignored, the primary pick is always the one against the spread.
Thanks.
Monday 19 November 2012
Live NFL - Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers BBC Red Button 1.30am
Neither starting QB goes tonight and that seems to swing the game the
home team's way. Campbell has a decent arm, but a laborious delivery
because he spends too much time making decisions and he'll do it tonight
against an aggressive D and behind a poor O line.
As it is, Chicago will try to run the ball to limit his throwing/decision making, but the 49ers are a tough defense to run on and it may be a rough night under centre. Forte isn't really a smashmouth runner and may find the going tough too.
I like Colin Kaepernick and if he were more polished, I'd take him every day over Alex Smith (so much so I've stashed him in a number of keeper leagues!) as it is I think Harbaugh will turn Kaepernick into a fine QB and it may be that tonight we'll see some of that potential: h's certainly more mobile than Campbell.
San Francisco will also run the ball all game, for all the same reasons, but I suspect Kaepernick will take some looks downfield which will keep the Bears' defense on its toes. Gore is a physical runner and Kendall is a nice change up and although the Bears are a difficult team to run on, they did creak last game.
I'll give the points.
Pick: San Francisco Giants -3.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Colin Kaepernick @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Matt Forte @ 2.4
As it is, Chicago will try to run the ball to limit his throwing/decision making, but the 49ers are a tough defense to run on and it may be a rough night under centre. Forte isn't really a smashmouth runner and may find the going tough too.
I like Colin Kaepernick and if he were more polished, I'd take him every day over Alex Smith (so much so I've stashed him in a number of keeper leagues!) as it is I think Harbaugh will turn Kaepernick into a fine QB and it may be that tonight we'll see some of that potential: h's certainly more mobile than Campbell.
San Francisco will also run the ball all game, for all the same reasons, but I suspect Kaepernick will take some looks downfield which will keep the Bears' defense on its toes. Gore is a physical runner and Kendall is a nice change up and although the Bears are a difficult team to run on, they did creak last game.
I'll give the points.
Pick: San Francisco Giants -3.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Colin Kaepernick @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Matt Forte @ 2.4
Sunday 18 November 2012
Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers Ch4 1.30am
I usually love these situations; the line crashes in on the news that a
team's #1 QB is out and the team in question is cracking value. Sure
enough, this line has moved 7+ points with Roethlisberger on the
sidelines, but the fly in the ointment is Leftwich: he stinks.
Hopefully, the Steelers will resist the temptation to go after the ropey Ravens' secondary and pound the rock with the returning Mendenhall and then lean on their defense to stifle a Baltimore team that has been poor on the road.
I'll still play the situation, but if you must get involved, keep stakes small.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Torrey Smith @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Heath Miller @ 2.7
Hopefully, the Steelers will resist the temptation to go after the ropey Ravens' secondary and pound the rock with the returning Mendenhall and then lean on their defense to stifle a Baltimore team that has been poor on the road.
I'll still play the situation, but if you must get involved, keep stakes small.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Torrey Smith @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Heath Miller @ 2.7
Live NFL - Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots Sky Sports 9.30pm
I like Andrew Luck a lot and when you consider the absentees for the New
England defense (Dont’a Hightower, Brandon Spikes, Patrick Chung and
Steve Gregory are out/injured) it may be that this face-off of the
present and the future QB superstars may be closer than people think.
New England will put up points because they have the talent to score on anyone (note that the Colts may have lost both starting corners) but with the return of Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney for the Colts, I'm going to take the points in what should be a high scoring game.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts +9.5 @ 2
Pick: Over 53.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Reggie Wayne @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Lloyd @ 2.4
New England will put up points because they have the talent to score on anyone (note that the Colts may have lost both starting corners) but with the return of Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney for the Colts, I'm going to take the points in what should be a high scoring game.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts +9.5 @ 2
Pick: Over 53.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Reggie Wayne @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Lloyd @ 2.4
Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions Sky Sports 6pm
Green Bay have injury problems on the OL and still haven't all their
offensive weapons fit after the bye week, but if they keep Rodgers
upright he'll be able to attack a Lions' secondary that is similarly
missing bodies all over the place and playing poorly. Detroit have given
up yards on the ground too recently, and if Green Bay can find any sort
of running game, they can tame the Lions - yuk it up, kids.
The Pack also have key elements out on D (specifically Clay Matthews) and Tramon Williams should've been having megatron sized nightmares all week. Stafford has struggled this season, but has run into a little form and he has the weapons downfield to attack a Green Bay D that is giving up chunks of yardage through the air: look for talented rookie Titus Young, who is becoming a real threat with teams concentrating on Calvin Johnson. Stafford has Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell to help him out on the ground, so the home team has the offensive wherewithal.
However, I suspect Detroit could be playing from behind on this one and although they have strength on the offensive side, Stafford slinging it against a D that keeps making big plays, despite its limitations, is likely to be too big an ask.
I'll give the points.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -3 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Randall Cobb @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Titus Young @ 2.5
The Pack also have key elements out on D (specifically Clay Matthews) and Tramon Williams should've been having megatron sized nightmares all week. Stafford has struggled this season, but has run into a little form and he has the weapons downfield to attack a Green Bay D that is giving up chunks of yardage through the air: look for talented rookie Titus Young, who is becoming a real threat with teams concentrating on Calvin Johnson. Stafford has Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell to help him out on the ground, so the home team has the offensive wherewithal.
However, I suspect Detroit could be playing from behind on this one and although they have strength on the offensive side, Stafford slinging it against a D that keeps making big plays, despite its limitations, is likely to be too big an ask.
I'll give the points.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -3 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Randall Cobb @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Titus Young @ 2.5
Thursday 15 November 2012
Live NFL - Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Sky Sports 1.25am
Miami are sliding, but Buffalo might just offer them a chance to
arrest the skid, primarily because the Bills can't defend the run;
they're banged up and performing poorly as a front seven. Reggie Bush
has put numbers up against this D in the past and (along with Daniel
Thomas) should do so again tonight. Bush was benched last week for a
fumble, so hopefully he'll have something to prove. There's not much
pass rush to worry about, so if the ground game dominates sufficiently,
Ryan Tannehill can take some shots against a poor, inexperienced
secondary.
Buffalo are missing Fred Jackson, and it could be a big miss. C J Spiller will feature and has some juice and although Miami's numbers against the run on the season are excellent, they've given up yards recently. Ryan Fitzpatrick is too unpredictable for my tastes; he is a swashbuckler whose swash often buckles and it can get ugly quickly. The fins haven't a terrifying pass rush, but the Bills' O line does give up sacks, however Miami are beatable deep.
This game depends upon who gets the run going and I'll look for Miami's quick, aggressive defense to assert itself.
Pick: Miami Dolphins @ 2.25
Pick: 1st TD Brian Hartline @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Reggie bush @ 2
Buffalo are missing Fred Jackson, and it could be a big miss. C J Spiller will feature and has some juice and although Miami's numbers against the run on the season are excellent, they've given up yards recently. Ryan Fitzpatrick is too unpredictable for my tastes; he is a swashbuckler whose swash often buckles and it can get ugly quickly. The fins haven't a terrifying pass rush, but the Bills' O line does give up sacks, however Miami are beatable deep.
This game depends upon who gets the run going and I'll look for Miami's quick, aggressive defense to assert itself.
Pick: Miami Dolphins @ 2.25
Pick: 1st TD Brian Hartline @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Reggie bush @ 2
Monday 12 November 2012
Live NFL - Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers BBC Red Button 1.30am
It's been one of those weeks and it would be nice if Ben and the boys execute their gameplan tonight without any dramas.
There's no element in this game, save perhaps for the Chiefs' run game, where Kansas doesn't look over-matched. Added to which, Romeo Crennel is floating at the top of the bowl and has handed over the defensive co-ordinator role in desperation. Cassel is a functional quarterback (rather him under centre than Brady Quinn) but his options were limited enough without facing a Steelers' D on national TV that is beginning to form up nicely. Kansas have been outscored 61-6 in the first quarter this season and they will struggle to put points up tonight too.
As long as the home team stick to the usual RBBC/easy, short passing game to move the chains and don't get too greedy, they should see off tonight's opposition at a jog. I hate giving double digits (particularly on MNF) but the Chiefs really are that bad.
Pick: Pittsburgh -12.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st Quarter Spread Pittsburgh -3 @ 1.91 (Vic)
Pick: 1st TD Isaac Redman @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Heath Miller @ 2.1
There's no element in this game, save perhaps for the Chiefs' run game, where Kansas doesn't look over-matched. Added to which, Romeo Crennel is floating at the top of the bowl and has handed over the defensive co-ordinator role in desperation. Cassel is a functional quarterback (rather him under centre than Brady Quinn) but his options were limited enough without facing a Steelers' D on national TV that is beginning to form up nicely. Kansas have been outscored 61-6 in the first quarter this season and they will struggle to put points up tonight too.
As long as the home team stick to the usual RBBC/easy, short passing game to move the chains and don't get too greedy, they should see off tonight's opposition at a jog. I hate giving double digits (particularly on MNF) but the Chiefs really are that bad.
Pick: Pittsburgh -12.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st Quarter Spread Pittsburgh -3 @ 1.91 (Vic)
Pick: 1st TD Isaac Redman @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Heath Miller @ 2.1
Live NFL - Houston Texans at Chicago Bears Ch4 1.20am
A fascinating matchup to close out the night.
Two really tough defenses will test offenses that aren't known for their innovative, devil-may-care approach.
Matt Schaub is an efficient, error free game manager and he'll need to be patient tonight as the Bears are well organised deep and aggressive up front: of particular concern is the right side of the offensive line, where Idonije, McClellin and Melton could cause all sorts of problems. The Texans will need to lean on Arian Foster, but Chicago are tough against the run too and with a talented secondary and a dearth of a deep threat, if Foster doesn't dominate, the Texans could struggle to move the ball.
Frankly, the same is true of the Bears: Matt Forte must get rolling against a stout run D to take the pressure off Cutler, who'll hope his protection has a good day against a ferocious pass rush led by J J Watt. With Cushing missing, Forte may find some room and Cutler will still look for (a doubtless double teamed) Brandon Marshall downfield.
One of these offenses will need to step up and show form that has been lacking so far and I think Chicago just shade it on the basis of 'the team most likely'.
Pick: Chicago Bears -1 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Matt Forte @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Houston Defense @ 5.5
Two really tough defenses will test offenses that aren't known for their innovative, devil-may-care approach.
Matt Schaub is an efficient, error free game manager and he'll need to be patient tonight as the Bears are well organised deep and aggressive up front: of particular concern is the right side of the offensive line, where Idonije, McClellin and Melton could cause all sorts of problems. The Texans will need to lean on Arian Foster, but Chicago are tough against the run too and with a talented secondary and a dearth of a deep threat, if Foster doesn't dominate, the Texans could struggle to move the ball.
Frankly, the same is true of the Bears: Matt Forte must get rolling against a stout run D to take the pressure off Cutler, who'll hope his protection has a good day against a ferocious pass rush led by J J Watt. With Cushing missing, Forte may find some room and Cutler will still look for (a doubtless double teamed) Brandon Marshall downfield.
One of these offenses will need to step up and show form that has been lacking so far and I think Chicago just shade it on the basis of 'the team most likely'.
Pick: Chicago Bears -1 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Matt Forte @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Houston Defense @ 5.5
Sunday 11 November 2012
Live NFL - Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles Sky Sports 9.25pm
Great, a choker followed by a game between maybe the two most unpredictable teams in football!
I honestly couldn't pick a team to cover with these two, so I'm going to post my one 'No bet' of the year ATS.
Instead, head to SJ and back Over 5 sacks in the game for a small interest; the Eagles don't have an O line and DeMarcus Ware and his buddies must be licking their lips.
Pick: Over 5 sacks @ 2
I honestly couldn't pick a team to cover with these two, so I'm going to post my one 'No bet' of the year ATS.
Instead, head to SJ and back Over 5 sacks in the game for a small interest; the Eagles don't have an O line and DeMarcus Ware and his buddies must be licking their lips.
Pick: Over 5 sacks @ 2
Live NFL - Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Sky Sports 6pm
Those of you sitting in your second homes and ski lodges, financed by my
baseball and football picks, will scarcely need reminding that I rarely
make a losing selection, and even if I do, I'm not one of those people
who curses his luck or trots out some lame excuse ... but the Eagles
really stank it up against the Saints last week and should've won!
My view of the Saints' defensive side of the ball is the same: they're awful. If Vick and his O line hadn't completely collapsed (Andy Reid sucked too, incidentally) New Orleans' season would be done. As it is, they won't be able to get to Matt Ryan with such ease today (he has better protection and a sharper release) and Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez should make hay. The Falcons can change it up with Michael Turner who is putting up solid, if unspectacular numbers in his footballing dotage.
The New Orleans Saints do have a fine offense of course, and last week saw them begin to find real rhythm. Jimmy Graham is getting fit, and Brees was ruthless over the middle against the hapless Eagles and Atlanta have given up receiving yards this season (if not TDs) so expect the TE to find the endzone. With Darren Sproles probably out, it's RBBC in the backfield - look for Ivory close in.
The defenses look like the tiebreaker here and so the preference must be for the visitors.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons -1 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Chris Ivory @ 3.25
My view of the Saints' defensive side of the ball is the same: they're awful. If Vick and his O line hadn't completely collapsed (Andy Reid sucked too, incidentally) New Orleans' season would be done. As it is, they won't be able to get to Matt Ryan with such ease today (he has better protection and a sharper release) and Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez should make hay. The Falcons can change it up with Michael Turner who is putting up solid, if unspectacular numbers in his footballing dotage.
The New Orleans Saints do have a fine offense of course, and last week saw them begin to find real rhythm. Jimmy Graham is getting fit, and Brees was ruthless over the middle against the hapless Eagles and Atlanta have given up receiving yards this season (if not TDs) so expect the TE to find the endzone. With Darren Sproles probably out, it's RBBC in the backfield - look for Ivory close in.
The defenses look like the tiebreaker here and so the preference must be for the visitors.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons -1 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Chris Ivory @ 3.25
Thursday 8 November 2012
Live NFL - Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars Sky Sports 1.20am
Andrew Luck is some talent; his maturity and vision are impressive
enough, but when you consider he's a rookie and the number one draft
pick, then you realise the Colts have something special. That talent is
reflected in the Indy offense, which is really coming together and I
would look for Wayne, Avery, Hilton and Dwayne Allen to do well against a
Jags' D that ranks poorly in every defensive stat. Vick Ballard is also
developing nicely and with Donald Brown still carrying injuries,
Ballard can become the dominant force in the backfield.
The Jags beat the Colts earlier this season, but Jones-Drew put up 177 yards and a TD in that game, and he's out tonight. The Indianapolis defense has made progress as well as the season has gone on. That said, Indy are missing two starting corners and Gabbert is by no means hopeless - similarly, Rashad Jennings is useful running and catching out of the backfield.
However, the Colts have the momentum and emotions are still running high over Chuck Pagano and they should have too much for the home team tonight.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3 @ 1.83
Pick: 1st TD Reggie Wayne @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Vick Ballard @ 2
The Jags beat the Colts earlier this season, but Jones-Drew put up 177 yards and a TD in that game, and he's out tonight. The Indianapolis defense has made progress as well as the season has gone on. That said, Indy are missing two starting corners and Gabbert is by no means hopeless - similarly, Rashad Jennings is useful running and catching out of the backfield.
However, the Colts have the momentum and emotions are still running high over Chuck Pagano and they should have too much for the home team tonight.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3 @ 1.83
Pick: 1st TD Reggie Wayne @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Vick Ballard @ 2
Monday 5 November 2012
Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints BBC Red Button 1.30am
I didn't think that losing their coach would have a significant effect on the Saints, but it would seem that, if it's not that, a wheel has come off somewhere.
The major problem is the New Orleans' defense: it's horrible. Their pass rush isn't getting home and their secondary is poor (the Saints have given up 300 yards to opposing QBs in all but one game this season) and to make matters worse, they're now coping with injuries.
Michael Vick is behind a creaking offensive line that has seen the Eagles' coaches alter their QB's gameplan somewhat, with a much quicker release and shorter passes designed to avoid the sacks and turnovers that were burning them. That said, tonight should see some shots deep to guys like Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson. LeSean McCoy should be able to get rolling against a weak run D and as my loyal follower knows, I like a balanced offense.
Drew Brees will like the look of this matchup, as the Eagles have their own problems on defense: so much so a new defensive co-ordinator has come in. The difference seemed to be initially a lot more blitzing, but if you send everyone against Brees, he'll murder you and I expect Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham to have big games as the Philadelphia corners are ponderous and their safeties struggle in coverage. There's less balance here with Sproles out and Pierre Thomas/Mark Ingram less explosive options.
This could be a game with a lot of points with neither stop unit showing much form; in terms of the spread, although they're horribly unreliable, I'll favour the visitors.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +3 @ 1.83
Pick: Over 51.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Michael Vick @ 17
Pick: Anytime TD Marques Colston @ 2
The major problem is the New Orleans' defense: it's horrible. Their pass rush isn't getting home and their secondary is poor (the Saints have given up 300 yards to opposing QBs in all but one game this season) and to make matters worse, they're now coping with injuries.
Michael Vick is behind a creaking offensive line that has seen the Eagles' coaches alter their QB's gameplan somewhat, with a much quicker release and shorter passes designed to avoid the sacks and turnovers that were burning them. That said, tonight should see some shots deep to guys like Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson. LeSean McCoy should be able to get rolling against a weak run D and as my loyal follower knows, I like a balanced offense.
Drew Brees will like the look of this matchup, as the Eagles have their own problems on defense: so much so a new defensive co-ordinator has come in. The difference seemed to be initially a lot more blitzing, but if you send everyone against Brees, he'll murder you and I expect Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham to have big games as the Philadelphia corners are ponderous and their safeties struggle in coverage. There's less balance here with Sproles out and Pierre Thomas/Mark Ingram less explosive options.
This could be a game with a lot of points with neither stop unit showing much form; in terms of the spread, although they're horribly unreliable, I'll favour the visitors.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +3 @ 1.83
Pick: Over 51.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Michael Vick @ 17
Pick: Anytime TD Marques Colston @ 2
Sunday 4 November 2012
Live NFL - Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons Ch4 1.30am
Atlanta are a solid team: Dallas are not.
Usually, the team that wins the turnover battle, wins the game. With this in mind, consider the fact that Romo has thrown thirteen picks this season, whereas the Falcons as a team have turned the ball over just seven times. Romo tends to be wildly unpredictable and tonight he won't have a run game to fall back on (DeMarco Murray is out and Felix Jones is banged up) and he'll be behind an O line that has had problems keeping him protected.
Atlanta can be beaten deep, and Romo has decent options downfield, but he'll turn the ball over to an offense that can be ruthlessly efficient.
Matt Ryan has been solid this season and if he's given any time, he can look at targets like Roddy White, Julio Jones and the ageless Tony G. Dallas corners Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr are talented, but they'll need to be on their game. Of course, Ryan has to stay clean, and the Falcons O line will have their hands full with the Dallas' front seven in general and DeMarcus Ware in particular. It'll be interesting to see how Michael Turner figures: he'll certainly get touches close in, but this looks like it'll be a shoot out at the Georgia Dome.
I'll give the points.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons -4.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Julio Jones @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Miles Austin @ 2.4
Usually, the team that wins the turnover battle, wins the game. With this in mind, consider the fact that Romo has thrown thirteen picks this season, whereas the Falcons as a team have turned the ball over just seven times. Romo tends to be wildly unpredictable and tonight he won't have a run game to fall back on (DeMarco Murray is out and Felix Jones is banged up) and he'll be behind an O line that has had problems keeping him protected.
Atlanta can be beaten deep, and Romo has decent options downfield, but he'll turn the ball over to an offense that can be ruthlessly efficient.
Matt Ryan has been solid this season and if he's given any time, he can look at targets like Roddy White, Julio Jones and the ageless Tony G. Dallas corners Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr are talented, but they'll need to be on their game. Of course, Ryan has to stay clean, and the Falcons O line will have their hands full with the Dallas' front seven in general and DeMarcus Ware in particular. It'll be interesting to see how Michael Turner figures: he'll certainly get touches close in, but this looks like it'll be a shoot out at the Georgia Dome.
I'll give the points.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons -4.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Julio Jones @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Miles Austin @ 2.4
Live NFL - Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants Sky Sports 9.25pm
Go with the emotion of the Giants playing at home for the victims of hurricane Sandy.
Seriously.
Pick: New York Giants -3.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Heath Miller @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Hakeem Nicks @ 2.1
Seriously.
Pick: New York Giants -3.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Heath Miller @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Hakeem Nicks @ 2.1
Live NFL - Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins Sky Sports 6pm
Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III face off - what's not to like?
This will come down to who can stifle the respective wunderkinds, because each is not merely the most important part of their team's offense in a positional sense (they're the QBs fer chrissakes!) they haven't anyone else to carry the team: Newton hasn't been as sharp this season and so the Panthers have been stymied.
Luckily for Carolina, they're going up against a Washington D that is pretty much hopeless against the pass and middling against the run. Steve Smith is due a TD and worth looking at in the TD market as Newton has begun to show flashes of form recently and the offense in general seems more cohesive - bear in mind too, that the Panthers have run Chicago and Atlanta close on the road and had five losses by a single score.
RGIII has been as advertised, and then some, but rather like their offense, the Carolina' D has made some strides and while it's not a shutdown unit, it has a decent pass rush, can defend the run and is capable of bottling up Griffin.
The Washington receiving corps doesn't inspire at the best of times, but they've started dropping the ball too, so a good deal could rest on Alfred Morris and the run game and he'll see the rock a lot. The Panthers are a little nicked up at LB, so Morris may be in for a big game, but I don't think it'll be enough to cover.
I'll take the points.
Pick: Carolina Panthers +3 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD RGIII @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.4
This will come down to who can stifle the respective wunderkinds, because each is not merely the most important part of their team's offense in a positional sense (they're the QBs fer chrissakes!) they haven't anyone else to carry the team: Newton hasn't been as sharp this season and so the Panthers have been stymied.
Luckily for Carolina, they're going up against a Washington D that is pretty much hopeless against the pass and middling against the run. Steve Smith is due a TD and worth looking at in the TD market as Newton has begun to show flashes of form recently and the offense in general seems more cohesive - bear in mind too, that the Panthers have run Chicago and Atlanta close on the road and had five losses by a single score.
RGIII has been as advertised, and then some, but rather like their offense, the Carolina' D has made some strides and while it's not a shutdown unit, it has a decent pass rush, can defend the run and is capable of bottling up Griffin.
The Washington receiving corps doesn't inspire at the best of times, but they've started dropping the ball too, so a good deal could rest on Alfred Morris and the run game and he'll see the rock a lot. The Panthers are a little nicked up at LB, so Morris may be in for a big game, but I don't think it'll be enough to cover.
I'll take the points.
Pick: Carolina Panthers +3 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD RGIII @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.4
Thursday 1 November 2012
Live NFL - Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers Sky Sports 12.25am
These are two teams with critical flaws that make picking this game a real challenge.
Both teams have QBs that have problems. Matt Cassel is too often a rabbit in the headlights and makes bad decisions, really bad. Cassel has an astonishing 16 turnovers on the season. I prefer him to Brady Quinn though, as Cassel can at least find the open receiver.
Philip Rivers is broken. For a couple of seasons he has regressed badly and there seems little doubt he is coping with some kind of physical problem. Rivers is coming off two bad games and isn't throwing with anything like the required zip, and even when he does, his receivers are putting it on the deck.
The Chiefs' most potent weapon, Jamaal Charles, got 8 touches last week, EIGHT. Romeo Crennel/Brian Daboll are part of the problem in Kansas and unless they give Charles the rock tonight, the Chiefs will struggle mightily - if Trent Richardson can gash the Chargers' run D, then surely JC can.
San Diego need to feed Ryan Mathews, but he has fumbling problems that have seen him benched already this season. Luckily, the Kansas defense is flat out awful. Through the air or on the ground, they can't stop a thing, so Gates and Mathews in particular should do OK: it's worth bearing in mind in the TD market that this is a team that uses the pass to score so look for Malcom Floyd, and Robert Meachem in the endzone.
Hopefully, the message is clear: these teams are pigs and the game is best watched.
In this situation though, I'll take the points.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +9 @ 1.8
Pick: 1st TD Antonio Gates @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Malcolm Floyd @ 2
Both teams have QBs that have problems. Matt Cassel is too often a rabbit in the headlights and makes bad decisions, really bad. Cassel has an astonishing 16 turnovers on the season. I prefer him to Brady Quinn though, as Cassel can at least find the open receiver.
Philip Rivers is broken. For a couple of seasons he has regressed badly and there seems little doubt he is coping with some kind of physical problem. Rivers is coming off two bad games and isn't throwing with anything like the required zip, and even when he does, his receivers are putting it on the deck.
The Chiefs' most potent weapon, Jamaal Charles, got 8 touches last week, EIGHT. Romeo Crennel/Brian Daboll are part of the problem in Kansas and unless they give Charles the rock tonight, the Chiefs will struggle mightily - if Trent Richardson can gash the Chargers' run D, then surely JC can.
San Diego need to feed Ryan Mathews, but he has fumbling problems that have seen him benched already this season. Luckily, the Kansas defense is flat out awful. Through the air or on the ground, they can't stop a thing, so Gates and Mathews in particular should do OK: it's worth bearing in mind in the TD market that this is a team that uses the pass to score so look for Malcom Floyd, and Robert Meachem in the endzone.
Hopefully, the message is clear: these teams are pigs and the game is best watched.
In this situation though, I'll take the points.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +9 @ 1.8
Pick: 1st TD Antonio Gates @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Malcolm Floyd @ 2
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