Live NFL - Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos 1.25am

The aggressive Denver front will get after McCarron who can be a little sluggish in the pocket. Neither team should be able to get a ground game going, so it'll be which of these replacement QBs can emerge from the arm wrestle intact and hit the occasional big play.

Brock Osweiler looks the QB most likely.

Pick: Denver Broncos -4

Pick: 1st TD Emmanuel Sanders @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Demaryius Thomas @ 2.5

Live NFL Week 16 6pm - 1.30am

Patriots @ Jets

A very tough call.

Gang green need to win to keep any realistic post-season hopes alive, whereas Bill and Tom need that home tie in the playoffs to rest and repair an injured team that is on its knees.

The Jets will throw everything at a Patriots' defense that has stepped up mightily and Belichick has done his usual trick of summoning up a mix of unfancied or veteran players who seem to allow the machine to roll on.

Bill gives Fitz fits and Brady will lean heavily on the Gronk (not my most surprising call!) ... the result? Pats pragmatism, just.

Pick: New England Patriots -1.5

Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Eric Decker @ 2.38

Packers at Cardinals

I've been backing the Cardinals for a while to win it all. No reason to lose faith in this game.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals -5.5

Pick: 1st TD David Johnson @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD John Brown @ 2.2

Giants @ Vikings

Odell Beckham is gone and so are the Giants. The Vikings roll on.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings -6.5

Pick: 1st TD Adrian Peterson @ 5
Pick: Anytime TD Stefon Diggs @ 2.5

Week 16 Hail Mary SU Acca

Texans
Chiefs
Lions
Bills
Panthers
Steelers
Seahawks
Cardinals
Vikings

@10.41

Live NFL - Washinton Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles 1.25am

Washington, although they don't travel well, can clinch the NFC East with a win. The Eagles look done and Cousins can take advantage of a banged up Philadelphia secondary.

3 points looks generous ... as long as DeSean Jackson plays.

Pick: Washington Redskins +3

Pick: 1st TD Jordan Reed @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD DeSean Jackson @ 2.3

Live NFL - Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints 1.25am

The Lions are horrible on the road, horrible on national TV and horrible against the Saints.

New Orleans are just horrible on defense. The Saints are giving up over 30 points a game (although Dennis Allen seems to have put some fire in the stop unit's belly) and Stafford and megatron should tear this secondary apart - were it not for the fact Detroit have come up with the genius idea of ignoring Johnson for large parts of the game.

Neither team can run the ball, but both have strong passing attacks. There should be a ton of points and if I had to bet, it would be the Over.

Pick: New Orleans Saints -2.5
Pick: Over 51.5

Pick: 1st TD Brandin Cooks @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Golden Tate @ 2.38

Live NFL Week 15 6pm - 1.30am

Panthers at Giants

Carolina giving 4.5 points here should be the bet of the season, but the banged up Panthers sound like they have their feet off the pedals and it's always dangerous backing unbeaten teams going into Metlife.

That pass rush should do it though. Small stakes.

Pick: Carolina Panthers -4.5

Pick: 1st TD Cam Newton @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Odell Beckham @ 2

Broncos at Steelers

The best game of the week has the tough Denver D facing off against Pittsburgh's purring playmakers. The problem for the Broncos is they just can't put up the points.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5

Pick: 1st TD DeAngelo Williams @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Demaryius Thomas @ 2.5

Cardinals at Eagles

The Eagles have flashed some form, but the Cardinals have too much on both sides of the ball in a game that can clinch them the Division and possibly a first round bye.

I like this bet.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals -3.5

Pick: 1st TD John Brown @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Larry Fitzgerald @ 2.1
  
Week 15 SU Hail Mary Acca

Vikings
Pats
Chiefs
Seahawks
Steelers
Bengals
Cardinals
Saints

@ 10.67

Live NFL - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St Louis Rams 1.25am

Gawd, these games are getting worse - picking them is a coin toss and about as much fun.

Take the Buccaneers SU if you must. On a more positive note, it may be worth an interest in the Under with these two underpowered offenses.

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Under 41

Pick: 1st TD Todd Gurley @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Doug Martin @ 2

Live NFL - New York Giants at Miami Dolphins 1.25am

Another horrible MNF game.

Take the Fins, if you must. Oh, and sorry for that Texans pick - that's the stupidest call I've made since I said, "I do".

Pick: Miami Dolphins -1

Pick: 1st TD Jarvis Landry @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Lamar Miller @ 2

Week 14 SU 'Hail Mary' Acca

Lions
Bucs
Jets
Chiefs
Bears
Panthers
Seahawks
Broncos
Packers
Pats

@ 24

Live NFL Week 14 6pm - 1.30am

Steelers at Bengals

Big Ben is in terrific form and Pittsburgh have plenty of weapons, but the Bengals have a stout defense and a potent offense of their own. Should be a belter, but I have to give less than a field goal at home. The herd have been smashing into the total all week pushing it out to 50 (it may go higher, so hang on) and are worth opposing.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
Pick: Under 49.5

Pick: 1st TD DeAngelo Williams @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Tyler Eifert @ 2

Cowboys at Packers

The herd seem back in love with America's team and have clipped the spread, but I'm not so sure. Cassel flattered to deceive and the Pack will be buoyed by the 'miraculous heave' last week (cost me a bundle!)

Pick: Packers -6 (leave it late, you may find the spread moves in again as bettors look to recoup on the early games)

Pick: 1st TD Richard Rodgers @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD DeZ Bryant @ 2.5

Patriots at Texans

Hoyer is a worry - he has a deer in headlights look against well organised defenses - but with the Pats' injuries, their horrible O line and the Texans becoming relevant, I have to believe the Houston D will let them cover at home. JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney may ruin Tom Terrific's Christmas.

Pick: Houston Texans +5.5

Pick: 1st TD DeAndre Hopkins @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD LeGarrette Blount @ 2.4

Live NFL - Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals 1.25am

This is an awful lot of points to give, but it's Thursday night football; give the points and take the Over. Actually, there's some logic in that tonight with the Cardinals tough on both sides of the ball and the Vikings injured and staggering over the finishing line.

Minnesota will need to throw the ball, because teams are just loading up the box to stifle Peterson and with Diggs the biggest target outside, this could get ugly for the visitors. I love David Johnson running the ball and with Larry Fitz, John Brown and Malcolm Floyd deep (hell, even rookie JJ Nelson looks good) Carson Palmer may be about to have an early Christmas.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals -10.5 @ 2
Pick: Over 46.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD David Johnson @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Larry Fitzgerald @ 2; Michael Floyd @ 2.7

Live NFL - Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins 1.25am

A team seemingly happier on the road, with a solid defense, but their third body at QB, against a team that thrives at home, is soft against the run, but boasts a QB who hasn't thrown a pick on his own turf since week one.

The line opened at 4.5 and has now got Washington a 2.5 favourite. The solid Dallas secondary means this should be a small bet, but I'll ride the home form.

Pick: Washington Redskins -2.5

Pick: 1st TD Darren McFadden @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jordan Reed @ 2.7

Live NFL Week 13

Seahawks at Vikings

Could be a belter, but I don't like the loss of Linval Joseph for the home team with Rawls likely to see the rock a lot. Russell Wilson might just be a pocket passer after all!

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -1.5

Pick: 1st TD Thomas Rawls @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Doug Baldwin @ 3

Panthers @ Saints

Carolina have too much for a New Orleans side struggling to score and possibly missing Willie Snead.

Pick: Carolina Panthers -6.5

Pick: 1st TD Jonathan Stewart @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Ben Watson @ 3.5

Colts at Steelers

Hasselbeck will have to throw it a ton tonight with Frank Gore carrying an injury, but Big Ben ruined the Indy defense last year and will likely repeat here.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -9

Pick: 1st TD DeAngelo Williams @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Coby Fleener @ 4

Hail Mary SU Acca

Cardinals
Bengals
Bears
Broncos
Panthers
Patriots
Steelers
Redskins

Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions 1.25am

I like Detroit here.

I'm a bit nervous of the inevitable coach bounce wearing off, but new OC Jim Bob Cooter really seems like a good fit for Stafford. The Pack have struggled on offense and their secondary looks vulnerable. The Lions' defense has played well of late, so I'll take the home dog.

Pick: Detroit Lions +2.5

Pick: 1st TD Calvin Johnson @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Randall Cobb @ 2.5

Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns 1.25am

Go to bed.

I wouldn't bet this pile of horse feathers if my life depended on it, but if you must, take the Browns; I prefer McCown to the clown Manziel and the Ravens are looking around for bodies to suit up - there's no-one left on the offensive side. I'm taping the game just to see what the rookie running backs will do.

Night night.

Pick: Browns -4.5

Pick: 1st TD Gary Barnidge @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Buck Allen @ 2.2

Live NFL Week 12 6pm - 1.30am

Giants at Redskins

Tough ATS pick; these two defenses stink and their QBs can be anything in any game. Traditionally the Giants own Cousins, but Washington can show some form at home to perhaps head the worst Division in football.

Oppose the herd and go Over.

Pick: Washington Redskins +2.5
Pick: Over 47

Pick: 1st TD Jordan Reed @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD DeSean Jackson @ 2.62

Steelers at Seahawks

Antonio Brown gets an early Christmas present and Ben's going to ping it around, but I like the dynamic Rawls on the ground and Wilson is a much better QB off the back of a strong running game.

Could be a cracker.

Pick: Seahawks -3.5

Pick: 1st TD Thomas Rawls @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Brown @ 1.91

Patriots at Broncos

Brady is running out of bodies on offense and this Denver defense is mighty salty. Osweiler will be sorely tested by the wise old fox who enjoys getting after green QBs. Look for lots of two TE sets in a conservative home attack, but they can shade it here.

Pick: Broncos +2.5

Pick: 1st TD Ronnie Hillman @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD James White @ 3.8

Live NFL - Thanksgiving Turkey Shoot 5.30pm - 1.30am

Gobble gobble, limeys. Here's ya picks.

Eagles at Lions

The Eagles are grounded and look like lion bait here.

Pick: Detriot Lions -2.5

Pick: 1st TD Calvin Johnson @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD DeMarco Murray @ 2.1*

Panthers at Cowboys

Matt Cassell is one hit away and anyway, I like the Panthers.

Pick: Carolina Panthers +1

Pick: 1st TD Greg Olsen @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Dez Bryant @ 2

Bears at Packers

I can't spot this Pack defense that many points.

Pick: Chicago Bears +8.5

Pick: 1st TD James Jones @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Alshon Jeffery @ 2.5*

Live NFL - Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars 1.25am

An excuse for an early night. This is the same sort of treat as the snap of the rubber glove as your doctor tells you to "bend over".

It's Thursday, take the favourite.

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -3 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Allen Robinson @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Delanie Walker @ 2.75

Live NFL - Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals 1.25am

I haven't seen a football weekend like this in a long, long time. ATS picks hammering SU, Manning benched, the Pack turned over like Rousey in the colonies; madness right through the card. I had 27 bets this weekend. I won 9 and was pretty relieved. Awful.

The Bengals have a run at it all, but the Texans have some game on the defensive side - their problem is deep and if the Texans don't get to Dalton (a tough ask with the Cincinnati front four) they could be in deep trouble.

The Bengals play my least favourite defensive philosophy of 'bend but don't break' so they give up the occasional big play, rarely blitz and can give up garbage time scores.

All this means that giving a bunch of points on national TV looks too risky.

It's the MNF dog. Good luck! :)

Pick: Houston Texans +10 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Tyler Eifert @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD DeAndre Hopkins @ 2.3

Live NFL - Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks 1.25am

It's one of those weeks in football. It's Thunderdome, so best to light the hurricane lamps, head down to the cellar and hunker down.

If I have to pick ATS here (and I do!) I'd have to take the opportunity to lay a field goal at CenturyLink Field.

This should be an arm wrestle though and my primary interest would be in the Under.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -3 @ 2
Pick: Under 43.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jimmy Graham @ 2.6

Live NFL - Minnesota Vikings at Oakland Raiders 9.05pm

The Vikes have a decent pass defense, but Derek Carr is tearing it up since the bye week. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are seeing lots of the pill and making some plays out wide.

Terry Bridgewater goes tonight despite taking a cheap shot from Lamarcus Joyner last week (any guesses who was on the defensive clipboard?) and I suspect Minnesota will try to keep him clean by pounding the ball with the ageless Adrian Peterson. Oakland know this of course, and will likely stack the box (they're not that bad against the run anyway) and that might allow Terry to take the occasional cheeky shot vertically against an underwhelming Raiders' pass defense.

This could be a good game. I'll give the FG with the rolling Raiders.

Pick: Oakland Raiders -3 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Amari Cooper @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Stefon Diggs @ 2.6

NFL Week 10 SU 'Hail Mary' Acca

Packers
Panthers
Rams
Eagles
Steelers
Patriots
Broncos
Bengals

@ 10.79

Live NFL - Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles 6pm

I invested in the Eagles earlier in the season and they were a dodos in disguise.

Now however, they might just be throwing off the fluffy baby feathers to reveal a more potent beast beneath. The run game has prompted the transformation (Miami ranks 29th against the run) and with the O line beginning to protect Bradford, he has started to perform too.

The fins are missing Cameron Wake and that could transform a mere loss to the kind of deficit we're looking for.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -6 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jordan Matthews @ 2.2

Live NFL - Buffalo Bills at New York Jets 1.25am

Rex Ryan was supposed to add a little mustard to an already tough defense in Buffalo but it hasn't really happened. That said, he'll be keen to put one over on his old team tonight.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is apparently headed for the operating theatre after the game and it may be that the Bills can finally get after a QB, but the Jets do have a couple of live threats out wide in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker.

The Bills, on the other hand, have Sammy Watkins in the passing game. That's it. It's a shame because (Revis aside) the Jets' secondary is in a mess, but bear in mind Watkins had a huge game last week. The Buffalo run game is rather more potent than their host's, but the Jets are tough to beat on the ground, so it'll be interesting to see how Buffalo runs its offense. I like Tyrod Taylor, who looked good in his first game back and I think he can be the difference here. Just.

Pick: Buffalo Bills +2 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Brandon Marshall @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Sammy Watkins @ 2.62

Live NFL - Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers 1.30am

The Bolts are beating the bushes to find fit bodies and the loss of Keenan Allen, the latest to go down, is a huge loss because the passing game is the whole of the San Diego offense. Philip Rivers is putting up huge numbers, but he'll have to do it with Malcolm Floyd and Stevie Johnson.

The Bears on the other hand, rely on a strong running game, but Forte is out, which is a shame because the Chargers can't stop the run. Cutler will look for Alshon Jeffrey, but I don't think they have enough to get it done - they look in bad shape.

Giving the points on MNF is never a delight, but I can't see past the home team.

Pick: San Diego Chargers -4 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Steve Johnson @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Johnson @ 2.38, Jeremy Langford @ 2

Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys 1.30am

Dallas with Cassel may actually be worse than Dallas with Weeden and that's a helluva an achievement. Ordinarily, that would mean smashing into the visitors, but Sam Bradford has been awful this season and was given fits by this Cowboys defense in Week 2 with the Eagles barely able to get airborne. With Jason Peters struggling, Bradford could be badly exposed.

However, there have been signs of life from Philadelphia and their defense should be tough enough to take on Cassel. DeMarco Murray will have a fire in his belly too.

I'll give a field goal.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3 @ 1.83

Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Dez Bryant @ 2.2

Live NFL - Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts 9.25pm

I can't see past Peyton and his aggressive defense and higher tempo offense giving less than a touchdown. Andrew Luck is banged up and error prone and TY Hilton is listed as doubtful.

Give the points.

Pick: Denver Broncos -4 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Ronnie Hillman @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Demaryius Thomas @ 2

Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers 6pm

By the numbers the Pack stink on offense and Denver crushed them last week with an aggressive pass rush and by taking away any pass game on the outside. Carolina can be just as tough on the perimeter and and have a fine LB corps, but they need to pressure Rodgers - they'll have doubtless spent the short week poring over game tape.

Newton's arm is as patchy as ever, but he remains a running threat and add in a reborn Jonathan Stewart against a Green Bay ground defense that was torn apart by the Broncos' running game and things look ominous for the visitors, particularly with the injuries at the corners. Look for Greg Olson in the Panthers' passing game, the guy is a beast.

I'm nervous about a wounded Pack bouncing back, but I have to take the points.

Pick: Carolina Panthers +3 @ 1.83

Pick: 1st TD Jonathan Stewart @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Greg Olsen @ 2.5

Someone has asked me about my record so far.

First up, apologies for the lack of book keeping. However, I've skimmed the ATS picks and I appear to be 22-15 (59%) on the season. It was a rough start, but you shouldn't really get involved until Week 4. I'm even on the Totals and I can't be bothered to sift through the 1st/Anytime picks, but as I explained, they're not to be considered a serious bet.

The Accas have been a car crash!

Live NFL - Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals 1.30am

The Browns are in freefall (despite a couple of offensive players showing real talent) and Johnny Football is back ... with a disgruntled left side protector and a raft of injuries on both sides of the ball.

The Bengals have been sound on offense, but Dalton freezes on national TV and they can be run on. Truth be told though, they could go over the total themselves because Cleveland's defense is wafer thin.

The thought of Laying 12 points gives me shivers, but I like the Over.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -12 @ 2
Pick: Over 45 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD AJ Green @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Cincinnati D/ST @ 3.5

Live NFL - Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers 1.30am

Not impressed with either team ATS (another back door cover beckons) but I like the Unders. I think both defenses are capable of matching up effectively here and the weather forecast is for rain.

Leave the spread, go Under.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts +5.5 @ 2
Pick: Under 46.5 @ 1.92

Pick: 1st TD Frank Gore @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Mike Tolbert @ 3.75, Cam Newton @ 2.2

Live MLB - Game 5 World Series 1am

PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH Edinson Volquez (1-2, 4.37 ERA) vs. Mets RH Matt Harvey (2-0, 3.38)

I opposed Volquez in Game 1. He pitched despite learning his father had passed away earlier that day and has been away from the team for a few days. There's no telling how he'll pitch, so I have to oppose him again, but can't have the Mets at the price.

Go Over again, it's the only value here.

Pick: Over 7 @ 2

Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos 1.30am

The herd are keen on Rodgers coming into Sports Authority Field to take down the Broncos, and there's no denying Peyton Manning's terminal decline. Green Bay though (by which I mean Aaron Rodgers) haven't been clicking on offense recently and Denver boasts the defense giving up the fewest passing yards per game.

Not a game to get heavily involved in, but I have a slight lean to the home team.

Buy the half point.

Pick: Denver Broncos +3 @ 1.83

Pick: 1st TD Ronnie Hillman @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Demaryius Thomas @ 2.1

Live NFL - Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers 6pm

The return of Ben Roethlisberger has cast the Bengals as very marginal dogs in some places, but the injury to Big Ben is a real concern, so much so that the matchup between Carlos Dunlap and Marcus Gilbert may be the key to this game. Either way, I have a feeling Pittsburgh are one hit away from Landry Jones.

Le'Veon Bell is the big offensive danger for the Bengals and they need to find a way to bottle him up, but if they can prevent him running riot and make Roethlisberger uncomfortable, they can win this.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals @ 1.97

Pick: 1st TD Le'Veon Bell @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD AJ Green @ 2

NFL Week 8 SU 'Hail Mary' Acca

Falcons
Cardinals
Seahawks
Rams
Packers
Panthers

@ 7.65

ATS Acca

Falcons -6.5
Rams -8
Panthers -7.5

@ 7.66

Live NFL - Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs 2.30pm

Roger Goodell gets paid about $40 million a year. Think about that when you're watching the latest shovel of horse feathers the NFL is serving up in London!

This game pits patchy offenses against horrible defenses. Jim Caldwell is busy throwing his coaches under the double decker, and the Chiefs' loss of Jamaal Charles has hamstrung their attack.

On the plus side, it means Matt Stafford is now operating in an offense that better suits his skill set (throw it a long way to Megatron and hope he hauls it in) and Kansas will certainly sling it with Jeremy Maclin back and a Detroit secondary that couldn't stop me lumbering downfield, pausing only to puff on my inhaler and puke a lung.

Give the points if you must bet the spread (I won't be) and take a small interest on the Over in what could be a gloriously comical shootout.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 @ 2.08
Pick: Over Over 45 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Charcandrick West @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jeremy Maclin @ 2.1

Live MLB - Game 4 World Series 12am

PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH Chris Young (1-0, 2.31 ERA) vs. Mets LH Steven Matz (0-1, 3.72)

0-3, make of that what you will!

Both of tonight's hurlers may be on a short leash and if the managers turn to their pens, I like the Royals. In any case, the price on the Mets is poor for a pitcher of the experience and post-season record of Steve Matz.

An interesting note: Over has cashed in every game and tonight's plate umpire, Jim Wolf has called 7 Overs in the last 8.

Pick: Kansas City Royals @ 2.25
Pick: Over 7 @ 2

Live MLB - Game 3 World Series 12am

PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH Yordano Ventura (0-1, 5.09 ERA) vs. Mets RH Noah Syndergaard (1-1, 2.77)

The Mets haven't been able to hold leads in both games, outlasted by the Royals' bullpen in the first and seeing a previously rock solid pitcher collapse in a heap in the second. To add insult to injury for the Mets, the crucial Kansas bullpen, worked hard in Game 1, got the night off in Game 2 as Cueto pitched a beauty, again against form.

It's an old maxim in baseball, that good pitching always beats good hitting, but the Mets much vaunted rotation hasn't produced and the contact hitting of the Royals and the depth and solidity of their bullpen has been too much.

Now, in what is surely a must-win third set, at home in New York, we have the Mets' fireballer, Noah Syndergaard going up against another Royals' pitcher who has been less than convincing in the post-season.

Syndergaard has been particularly strong at home and all things being equal, looks a lock. However, at the price, it's worth betting the streak, the Royals' bullpen and hitting. A small interest.

Pick: Kansas City Royals @ 2.4

Live NFL - Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots 12.25am

Can I get a "WHOOP WHOOP" for the MNF pick?! A stopped clock and all that :)

This has the same feel to it, although I'm less enthusiastic, so I'll be keeping stakes modest.

Traditionally, New England kicks Miami up and down the field at Gillette Stadium (6-0 ATS), but the elevation of Dan Campbell after Joe Philbin was shown the door has completely re-energised the fins. Their balance on offense is really nice (something I always look for - a stud here and there is fine, but give me a little running and a little passing any day) and Tannehill has got the O purring. Last week against the Texans they were merciless. On the other side of the ball too, Miami have suddenly found some form and Cameron Wake is playing out of his mind, racking up 6 sacks in the last two weeks. Even Suh looks a new player in a front that looks pretty salty.

Of course, the red hot Pats' desire for revenge for Deflategate is still driving them on and the Gronk is as unstoppable as ever, so I don't see an upset SU, but again, a back door cover may be on, or Miami will keep it just close enough.

Don't go mad (New England are 8-2-2 ATS as single-digit home favourites over the past three seasons) but take the points.

Pick: Miami Dolphins +8.5 @ 1.92

Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jarvis Landry @ 2.4

Live MLB - Game 2 World Series 12am

PITCHING MATCHUP: Mets RH Jacob deGrom (3-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Royals RH Johnny Cueto (1-1, 7.88)

Game 1 went more or less as I expected, except the Mets couldn't quite finish the job, despite leading (for the second time in the game) going into the bottom of the ninth - it was classic Royals' baseball.

Tonight's game is a less difficult pick, in as much as Jacob deGrom has been excellent in the post-season (3 road wins, 20IP, 4ER) in stark contrast to Johnny Cueto.

Terry Collins has rested deGrom to be sure that he's ready to go; again contrast Cueto, who has been ensured a home start because Ned Yost feels he may be mentally fragile. Cueto is 3-3 with a 4.07ERA at Kauffman Stadium in 6 outings.

The Royals' pen also put in a shift last night and may struggle to repeat the performance if the game goes long tonight.

If the Mets don't over press, relax and just rely on Cueto's shaky form, they can take Game 2.

Pick: New York Mets @ 1.91

Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals 12.30am

'Hey Joe, where you goin' with that gun in your hand?'

Ah, Flacco, the 'cappers nightmare, rolling into town with not a lot to throw to and a defense that just lies down in the face of any passing game - not good with Carson Palmer waiting. Arizona put up huge numbers through the air and although their last game wasn't an exhibition of attacking football, they should shred the Ravens' secondary.

Giving 9.5 points on MNF is bananas though and this has back door cover written all over it.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens +9.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Chris Johnson @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Justin Forsett @ 2.1


*Someone messaged me to ask about which Picks to bet. The primary bet is always ATS (unless I advise leaving it alone) and/or the Totals. The TD markets are to keep you awake!

Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers 12.30am

This is an interesting matchup. The Eagles' defense has been brutal, but Cam Newton is a different proposition and at the moment he's on fire. The Eagles take away the run game, so it'll be up to Cam to find a way to work it to an underwhelming receiving corps, outside Greg Olsen, or keep the chains moving by running himself.

Similarly, the Panthers have been putting up some good D, despite the absence of DE Charles Johnson, and Josh Norman must have looked at the game tape from Bradford's last outing and be thinking that Christmas may have come early.

If Sam Bradford throws three picks again tonight, he may be gone with the Bye week coming, but Chip Kelly will likely try to limit the opportunities for disaster by feeding DeMarco Murray, who has found some form of late, although taking Carolina on on the ground is a big ask.

There are too many imponderables here to back the teams with any great confidence ATS, but I think the Eagles probably have more options ... the problem is Sam Bradford and the price on the key number.

There is a value bet here, and it's the Under: two tough defenses and offenses with obvious limitations.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +3 @ 1.87
Pick: Under 45.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Cam Newton @ 2.75

Live NFL - Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants 8.25pm

Weeden is replaced by Cassell and it might just be an upgrade.

Stick a fork in the Cowboys, they're done.

Pick: New York Giants -3 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Rashad Jennings @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Odell Beckham @ 2

Live NFL - New York Jets at New England Patriots 5.00pm

Bill and Tom just refuse to forgive and forget and today they'll force a gimpy Fitzpatrick to throw a lot - never a good thing, even with the excellent wideouts he has to aim at. To do that though, the Patriots need to contain Chris Ivory (a brute after contact) and take away Decker in the slot. A big ask.

Brady will have to combat a returning Revis, but perhaps the key matchups will be Cromartie on Gronkowski (I'm guessing that's what the Jets will do, as I can't see Davis and Pace containing the Gronk) and the Jets' LBs on runners catching out of the NE backfield, because beating the Jets on the outside is difficult. The Jets like to blitz a lot, but that opens up a vulnerability to TEs and I suspect Brady and Belichick will scheme that matchup all day.

A tough pick, I like the Jets, but the Patriots are on a mission.

Pick: New England Patriots -7.5 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Chris Ivory @ 2

NFL Week 7 SU 'Hail Mary' Acca

Colts
Dolphins
Pats
Rams
Falcons
Cardinals

@ 6.63

Live NFL - Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars 1.30pm

Gawd, these geezers at NFL must 'ate Lahndahn (actually the players do hate the trip - don't believe the hype) to put up these two bleedin' awful teams.

Each side is carrying injuries and Manuel coming in for the Bills is only one of a raft that makes this pick shaky. Ordinarily, Manuel wouldn't be too much of a problem, but injuries mean he has no-one to throw to, which is a shame, because the Jags' secondary couldn't stop a crisp packet blowing downfield. Expect LeSean McCoy and Charles Clay to be the entire Bills' offense.

I like Blake Bortles, but his protection is so dreadful (he's getting sacked nearly 3 times a game) that he's often forced into errors. Buffalo don't have a great pass rush, but they'll send everyone this afternoon. There's a decent secondary for the Bills too, so they'll eat up any mistakes. With no running game to support him, Bortles will be throwing a lot under pressure.

Not a game to savour, or bet the kids' college fund.

Pick: Buffalo Bills -3.5 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD LeSean McCoy @ 6.5
Pick: Anytime TD Charles Clay @ 2.38

Live NFL - Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers 1.25am

These aren't two teams that inspire confidence. Seattle have been horribly erratic and prone to blowing games late and the 49ers have just been horrible.

That said, San Francisco have shown signs of life in their last two games and Kaepernick has gone from a pick away from riding the pine, to a half decent QB. However, I don't like their injuries on either side of the ball and there's a feeling they could collapse in a heap just as easily as overcome a team that has consistently beaten them.

The Seahawks have struggled to put together any meaningful offense, largely because Marshawn Lynch has battled injury and a ropey O line and the passing game has followed him down the tubes. Again though, Lynch played a full, if underwhelming, part last week and Jimmy Graham finally flashed, so they can mount a challenge.

This is largely an instinctive bet ATS and not one I'd recommend (I'm staying away) but an interest in the Under looks more worthwhile with two teams that still haven't clicked on offense.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers +6.5 @ 1.91 (it might be worth buying the half point onto a key number if you must bet ATS)
Pick: Under 42.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Anquan Boldin @ 3

Live NFL - New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles 1.30am

If it's MNF, it's the dog, right? Wrong.

As my reader knows, I'm fearless, so I'm taking the favourite here.

The Eagles may not be a bust after all and with Bradford settling in and the Giants' D missing some key components, and a pass rush, -3.5 at home looks value.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Zach Ertz @ 3.25

Live NFL - New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts 1.30am

Deflategate - The Revenge

Tom and Bill will pull out all the stops against a team they've owned in the recent past, but I don't like the loss of Solder along an already beatable line and Brady's blindside is potentially opened up. Still, the Pats' offense has weapons everywhere and I expect them to pour it on.

The Colts have taken some time to get into gear, but they're showing real signs of life on the offensive side, coming off three straight divisional wins. Luck should be back, and he's back into an offense that's found some rhythm. It won't be enough to keep up, but it should be enough to take advantage of a nine point start.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts +9 @ 1.95
Pick: Over 53.5 @ 1.98

Pick: 1st TD LeGarrette Blount @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Andre Johnson @ 3.4

NFL Week 6 SU 'Hail Mary' Acca

Jets
Patriots
Vikings
Packers
Seahawks

@ 4

Live NFL - Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks 9.05pm

Always a tough road trip, but although Carolina haven't played a stellar lineup of opponents thus far, they are an aggressive defense looking to protect an unbeaten record.

The Seahawks haven't hit their straps on offense and the Panthers are a team that the returning Lynch has traditionally struggled against, even when fit.

Again, it'll be tight, and I can't see many points, but 7 is too much to spot the visitors.

Pick: Carolina Panthers +7 @ 1.91
Pick: Under 40.4 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Greg Olsen @ 3.2

Live NFL - Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills 6pm

Dalton has been a revelation and the Bills have EJ Manuel under centre behind a shaky O line. McCoy looks as though he'll play, but he's very gimpy too. It's a tough call, but I'll give the points.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -3 @ 2.05

Pick: 1st TD AJ Green @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Giovani Bernard @ 2.88

Live NFL - Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints 1.25am

It's Thursday: take the favourite and go Over.

Again, the broad principle is supported by the analysis. Everyone's been hanging on, waiting for the Saints to turn it around, but nothing has happened - they stink.

Julio Jones will play tonight, which adds to the Saints' woes as their D is horrible. Devonta Freeman will soften them up running and catching, allowing Ryan to take some deep shots. Drew Brees has some weapons, but his protection is non-existent and the Falcons' secondary matches up well. Mark Ingram will pound the rock, but it shouldn't be enough.

Give the points.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3.5 @ 2.05
Pick: Over 51.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Devonta Freeman @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Willie Snead @ 2.4

Live NFL - Pittsburgh Steelers at San Diego Chargers 1.30am

I ain't tellin' ya again, hoss. Take the dog on Monday Night Football!

Actually, there's a case to be made for the Steelers, who are coming off enough time to work out the many kinks in any offense with Vick throwing the ball (his legs and arm no longer compensate for the slow progressions and poor decisions) but in any case, Vick can hand it off because LeVeon Bell should wreak havoc on the ground.

The Pittsburgh defense should be on a mission after choking against the Ravens. That's good news against a ropey bolts' O line ravaged by injury. It's not fatal for San Diego, because Rivers is hot at the moment and the Steelers' secondary is ropey at best, but it'll all be on the Chargers' QB to win this and he'll be under pressure all night.

Pick: Pittsburgh +3.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD LeVeon Bell @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Keenan Allen @ 2.62

NFL Week 5 SU 'Hail Mary' Acca

Ravens
Packers
Falcons
Pats
Giants
Chiefs
Broncos

@ 5.95

Live NFL - New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles 6pm

The much vaunted Eagles' offense has failed to find any sort of rhythm and with an already under-performing O line badly banged up, Sam Bradford (who admittedly flashed some form last week in a losing cause) may struggle again, even against a mediocre Saints defense. Really, Chip Kelly has to run the ball all day, but his reticence to do so thus far makes that unlikely. They really struggle to convert on third down and that just throttles a high tempo offense. I'm not thrilled with the atmosphere in Philly (no-one ever is!) and Kelly saying Sturgis stays on the roster just because there's nothing in the FA pool was hilarious.

Drew Brees is gimpy and not throwing the ball as deep as often as usual, and he too could have protection problems. Brees doesn't have a stellar cast downfield but they do have some speed and the Eagles' secondary struggles. Also the Saints' backs are catching and having seen Kirk Cousins dink and dunk the Eagles to death last week, I'll take the points.

Pick: New Orleans Saints +6 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 9.5
Pick: Anytime TD Willie Snead @ 3.75

Live NFL - Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks 1.30am

I would back practically any 10pt dog on MNF.

National TV does strange things to struggling teams, but the Lions are so awful at the moment, it's hard to invest. Also, any modest success Detroit have had has been in garbage time, but Seattle don't play that way - when the opposition is on its knees and long since out of the contest, they go back and kick 'em in the teeth just for fun.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -10

Pick: 1st TD Thomas Rawls @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Russell Wilson @ 3.75; Thomas Rawls @ 2

Live NFL - St Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals 9.25pm

Arizona have set away at a gallop and Carson Palmer has looked like an elite triggerman behind what many people consider a moderate O line. It'll certainly be tested tonight by a Rams team that can't mount any offense, but is tough on defense and will blitz all night.

The Cardinal with Palmer are money at home, but this is a consecutive Divisional matchup and although everyone is smashing into the Cardinals, I have a sneaky feeling that opposing the herd with a TD on offer might be the bet.

The fly in the ointment though, is Nick Foles and the Rams offense, which has been horrible. I really wish James Bettcher wasn't on the opposite sideline, because his experience of Foles means he can make it awkward for him, and Foles had little enough to to throw to without Kenny Britt going down. There hasn't been a run game to talk about with no gaps to aim for.

Keep the bet small if you must bet this one.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals -7 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Chris Johnson @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Larry Fitzgerald @ 2.1

NFL Week 4 SU 'Hail Mary' Acca

Bills
Panthers
Falcons
Colts
Chargers
Packers
Cardinals
Seahawks

@ 15

NFL Live - Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals 6pm

The Bengals have got things ticking nicely on both sides of the ball. Dalton is efficient, accurate and doesn't give it away behind an O line that is keeping him very clean. The banged up Kansas secondary will face a triple threat deep from Eifert, Jones and a red hot AJ Green.

The home team's defense is similarly efficient and the front seven will give Alex Smith a tough time; more importantly, they'll make life very difficult for Jamaal Charles running, and I suspect he'll be catching out of the backfield a lot - the one aspect of the Cincinnati defense that can struggle. Still, it shouldn't be enough.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 @ 2.05

Pick: 1st TD AJ Green @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Travis Kelce @ 2.6

Live NFL - New York Jets at Miami Dolphins 2.30pm

What an early treat.

A defense that couldn't stop offensive leviathans like Kirk Cousins, Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor, up against the Fitzpatrick turnover machine who has Brian Winters at RG battling Ndamukong Suh. Add in Brent Grimes prowling downfield waiting for one of Fitz's hurried lobs in the general direction of Brandon Marshall and it shapes up like a live blooper reel.

The Jets defense is tough and Tannehill is operating behind what may be one of the worst O lines in football; he had a horrible time last week (not disguised by the garbage time numbers) and it shouldn't be any prettier this afternoon. Maybe Jarvis Landry and Rishard Matthews can get it done, but I doubt it.

A horrible game best watched in a post-roast beef slumber with your money safely in your pocket. Bet the defense.

Pick: New York Jets -2.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Brandon Marshall @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Rishard Matthews @ 3.25

Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers 1.25am

These are situations I usually like - a key player goes down and the market overreacts making the team in question a value bet.

However, I'm less keen here as Roethlisberger is such a central element in Todd Haley's offense. (This may seem obvious, but generally stand-ins in football, even at QB, can maintain the plan) Michael Vick though, is off a short week and was horrible when he came in (and in New York) and it will be difficult to keep the pass happy steel wheels rollin'.

LeVeon Bell will doubtless be part of the answer, but presumably the Ravens will stack the box and force Vick to throw. That doesn't bode well.

Flacco is just as capable of picking your pocket as lining it and he'll need the reborn Steve Smith to continue to produce, as the Ravens' run game is going nowhere. The Steelers' numbers on D are impressive, but they haven't had to fight off any real offensive threats, so there may be light at the end of the 0-3 tunnel for Baltimore.

In truth, this is a game to avoid at all costs, although if you must, Maxx Williams looks an interesting bet with Gillmore out in a Baltimore O that hits TEs.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3 @ 2.05

Pick: First TD LeVeon Bell @ 6; Maxx Williams @ 17
Pick: Anytime TD Maxx Williams @ 3.25

Live NFL - Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers 1.30am

Laying 5 points at home with Rodgers? The line touched 7 on Monday!

Kansas can do some damage with Jamaal Charles, but things have to work out for him (not least a HC who doesn't feed him the ball and he should avoid fumbling the game away) and the Packers handled Marshawn Lynch.

The big worry is if the Chiefs fall behind, Alex Smith will have to throw the pill to keep up and that's a risky proposition - it's worth noting that Kansas have not thrown a TD to a wide receiver in 18 games. Travis Kelce will get looks in the Red Zone and is worth some interest to score at 2.62.

Rodgers has a depleted cast, but I've got to lay 5 at Lambeau. I like the Over too.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -5 @ 2
Pick: Over 47.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Jamaal Charles @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Travis Kelce @ 2.62

Live NFL - Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions 1.30am

Peyton is shot, notwithstanding an amazing second half last week and I don't like the fit with Kubiak; one prefers operating no huddle out of the shotgun and the other likes his QB under centre. Add in an O line like a sieve and getting any offense going is a worry if you're going to lay down your hard earned.

However, Matt Stafford just plain stinks. Really. Horrible. Now he's playing banged up against the only thing the Broncos bring with any consistency - a tough defense but that should be all that's required.

Pick: Denver Broncos -3 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD CJ Anderson @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Eric Ebron @ 3.4

Live NFL - Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins 9.25pm

The Bills' defense should be the difference in this pick 'em after their humiliation against the Pats.

Suh will be a problem against a Buffalo interior that isn't exactly giving their QB an armchair ride, but beyond that the fins' D hasn't shown up.

Tannehill will try to exploit the Bills D with short and intermediate passes over the top the way Brady did last week, but Tannehill's O line will have problems against the Bills' front seven and they won't afford him as much time as cheatin' Tom got.

Pick: Buffalo Bills @ 2.2

Pick: 1st TD LeSean McCoy @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jarvis Landry @ 2.5

NFL SU Week 3 Hail Mary Acca

Panthers
Texans
Patriots
Cardinals
Seahawks
Packers

@ 3.9

Live NFL - New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers 6pm

This football season is getting depressing on both sides of the pond.

Brees is gone, and the Saints' secondary is gimpy too. Laying nine points is crazy, but I'm desperate!

Pick: Carolina Panthers -9 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Cam Newton @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Greg Olsen @ 2.2

Live NFL - Washington Redskins at New York Giants

Washington are going to run all night - partly because they've discovered a helluva run game (Bill Callahan, big surprise) and partly to keep the ball out of Kirk Cousins's hands. Both Morris and discovery of the year so far Jones can put up big numbers against a soft Giants D line. Garçon will get looks, as will Reed close in, but it's likely to be ground and pound on that side of the ball for the visitors.

QB worries don't just extend to Washington; Eli Manning has been generally awful. To be fair, with Cruz out, he hasn't got much to throw to, but his lack of consistency even moved Coughlin to criticism this week. Washington are decent up front and with the Giants' backfield not lighting it up (Vereen is operating as help with the passing game these days and getting the most touches) Manning could have problems.

To be honest this looks a trappy affair. Washington have been horrible on the road and the Giants tend to dominate them, so it's difficult to invest too heavily, but I like Washington's momentum and their game matches up nicely against a team that might struggle to move the chains.

Pick: Washington Redskins +3 @ 2.05

Pick: 1st TD Jordan Reed @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Matt Jones @ 2.75

Live NFL - Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles 9.25pm

Dallas thrive on the road as dogs ATS, but losing Bryant on offense and with players still out on defense in the teeth of this Philly O at home, with a chip on their shoulder (genius) after last week and DeMarco Murray on a mission ...

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -5 @ 1.97

Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten @ 2

Week 2 Hail Mary NFL Acca

Saints
Steelers
Rams
Ravens
Dolphins
Colts

@7.49

Live NFL - New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills 6pm

Tyrod Taylor (a player I have stashed in a few dynasty and keeper leagues because I really rate him) did ok last week in an offense that casts him as a game manager at the moment. He won't be allowed to throw much, but he still made a couple of nice passes last time out and the Pats' secondary is soft. Taylor also always carries the run threat.

The Bills have to put together a run game and the injury reports on McCoy are scary, but it looks as though he'll play. Karlos Williams out of Florida State is next off the rank and doesn't lack talent to match his bulk (hence the Fred Jackson/Bryce Brown sacrifice. The Buffalo run is going up against a frankly poor Pats' run D and Rex Ryan will pound the rock all day, the question is whether that'll produce enough points.

Brady will have a tough go today against a talented, aggressive defense and a coach who has something of a sign over the Pats. New England's young O line should struggle and Tom will need to be on his toes. The Bills will try to take away the short pass and sit on the Gronk and it's worth noting Ryan has schemed that type of defence successfully before.

However, I think there's some value with the Pats with an overreaction to the Bill's result in Week 1. 

The line has flip flopped, with the Pats opening at -1.5, through a pick 'em, to now Bills -1.

I'll take the Pats SU.

Pick: New England Patriots @ 2

Pick: First TD Dion Lewis @ 19
Pick: Anytime TD Julian Edelman @ 2.62

Live NFL - Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs 1.30am

Tough pick. Denver can't score an offensive point and yet their defense looks brutal. Manning almost looks done, but it's impossible to rule out a guy with that much talent and but for a couple of misses he would've got on the board.

Kansas put the Texans away last week, the garbage time scores flattered Houston, but the Chiefs struggled in pass protection and Denver can swarm all over Alex Smith. Crucially, Denver were tough against the run and the Kansas offense still goes through Jamaal Charles, despite signs of life in the pass game. If the run game stutters, the Chiefs are in trouble.

I try to avoid trends in football, I don't believe they're helpful, but it should be noted that Denvers has owned Kansas City recently, even at Arrowhead and even with Tebow under center.

I have to take the points and I'll buy the half. I also like the Under.

Pick: Denver Broncos +3.5 @ 1.85
Pick: Under 42.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Travis Kelce @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Demaryius Thomas @ 2.5

Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons 00.10am

People like the look of the Eagles, and they've had a great pre-season (it's pushed the line out by a point and a half) so going into the Georgia Dome they look an attractive proposition.

However, Atlanta have gone out and tried to fill the obvious deficiencies and if anyone is going to build a defence, it's Dan Quinn. The problem is, it may be too soon to meet a high octane offense like the Eagles.

Of course Philadelphia are also trying to restructure a secondary that was often woeful last season and Matt Ryan will be slinging it all night, given that he has no run game to fall back on. Whether he can hit Julio Jones often enough though, is doubtful.

There should be a ton of points, but I think the visitors will probably have too much.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3 @ 1.97
Pick: Over 54.5 @ 1.92

Pick: 1st TD Julio Jones @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Jordan Matthews @ 2

Live NFL - New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys 1.25am

Murray will be a big miss, but the Giants look vulnerable against the pass and Romo should have time to throw.

Again though, not a big bet - its difficult to lean too heavily on the Cowboys' D.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -6 @ 1.92
Pick: Over 52.5 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Jason Witten @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Shane Vereen @ 3.75

Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos 9.25pm

Baltimore are mighty salty up front on both sides of the ball and they're going to get after what looks like a suspect and inexperienced Broncos' O line - old wet spaghetti arm will need to lean heavily on the newly anointed C J Anderson.

The Ravens though, have Flacco under centre; he's unpredictable at the best of times, and with almost no-one left to throw it to (he'll try to hurl it deep to Steve Smith a couple of times) he'll also need his RB to shine and Justin Forsett just might. Denver are strong defending deep and pass rush, so Forsett catching out of the backfield and running behind a fine O line may have a big game.

Not a game to get heavily involved in (in fact, I'd leave it alone) but I'll take the points.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens +5 @ 1.91

Pick: First TD CJ Anderson @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Justin Forsett @ 2

NFL Week 1 'Hail Mary' Accumulator

Packers
Chiefs
Jets
Seahawks
Dolphins
Broncos
Bengals
Eagles

@ 41

Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears 6pm

Eddie Lacy will be difficult to stop; he usually runs on the Bears and the home team's move to a 3-4 D may not have bedded in. Similarly, even a Nelson-less Rodgers will find time to give the Chicago defense a big test, particularly against the corners.

On the other side, well, Dom Capers always gives the fragile Cutler fits.

Lacy will pound it, then Rodgers will finish it. Giving less than a TD at Evens looks a knocking bet.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -6.5 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Eddie Lacy @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Matt Forte @ 2

Live NFL - Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots 1.30am Friday 11th Sept

The Pats will be fired up here after a soap opera off-season.

Pittsburgh have brought in coaching help on the defensive side, but with suspensions hurting on offense, I like the Pats.

Pick: New England Patriots -7 @ 1.93

Pick: 1st TD Gronkowski @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Dion Lewis @ 3

Baseball 1st May

Betfair - Baseball 1st May: Live game
Brewers/Cubs
Over 7.5 @ 2.1

Reds @ 1.87
O's @ 1.95
Nats @ 1.95
A's -1.5 @ 2.3

[40-39, +3.3]

System bets
Brewers @ 2.75
Rangers @ 2.38
Pirates @ 2.25
D'backs @ 2.35

[4-6, -0.55]

Baseball 26th April

Betfair - Baseball 26th April: Live game
Mets can keep rolling behind Niese.
Mets @ 2.2

Royals @ 1.8
Rangers @ 2.4
Nats/Marlins Under 7.5 @ 1.92
Astros @ 2.4

[34-33, +1.65]

Baseball Friday 24th April

Betfair - Baseball Friday 24th April: Ouch, brutal couple of days. Betting the bases is like that - honest lol

We soldier on.

A's @ 1.8
Pirates @ 1.8
Tigers @ 1.87

Treble
Mariners
Cards
Angels @ 4.25

Baseball Wednesday 22nd April

Betfair - Baseball Wednesday 22nd April: Indians @ 1.82
Nats @ 1.91
Padres @ 1.83
Red Sox @ 1.91
Reds @ 1.8

[30-22, +8.85]

Baseball Tuesday 21st April

Betfair - Baseball Tuesday 21st April: Live game
Cards @ Nats
St Louis running hot and have dominated Nats recently. Lynn can get it done.
Cards @ 2.05

Tigers @ 1.87
Red Sox @ 2.1
Reds @ 2.2
Padres @ 2.05


[27-20, +7.50]

Baseball Monday 20th April edit

Betfair - Baseball Monday 20th April: Live game
O's @ Red Sox
The Orioles enjoy Fenway and Chen has sharpened up of late, whereas Masterson was at sea lto.

Orioles @ 2.1

Yanks @ Tigers
I like Simon a lot. As for CC ....
Tigers @ 1.86

Pirates @ 1.91
Astros/Mariners Over 7.5 @ 1.95
Reds/Brewers Under 8 @ 2

[24-18, +6.69]

Baseball Monday 20th April

Betfair - Baseball Monday 20th April: Live game
O's @ Red Sox
The Orioles enjoy Fenway and Chen has sharpened up of late, whereas Masterson was at sea lto.

Orioles @ 2.1

[24-18, +6.69]

Baseball Saturday 18th April

Betfair - Baseball Saturday 18th April: Live games

Phillies @ Nats
The Nats are blazing at the plate, whereas the Phillies can't get it beyond the infield, and even then they can't get runners home, BUT Zimmerman struggled mightily lto and Harang has pitched well against the Nats.
It's all about the live dog. Small bet,
Phillies @ 2.6

A's @ Royals
Hahn has some talent and the Royals are a little beat up.
A's @ 2.15


Tigers @ 1.87
Twins @ 1.91
Padres @ 2.05

[21-14, +6.74]

Baseball Friday 17th April

Baseball accas should be avoided like Piers Morgan at a drinks party. However, we're in it for the giggles too, right? 

Nats 
Giants 
LA Dodgers 
Tigers @ 5.3 

[21-13, 7.74]

Baseball Thursday 16th April

Betfair - Baseball Thursday 16th April: Live game
Phillies @ Nats
Washington are beginning to hit, whereas the Phillies are struggling. Fister likes his home park. This price is just on my acceptable threshold so take it easy.
Nats @ 1.75

[20-13, +6.99]

Baseball Tuesday 14th April

Betfair - Baseball Tuesday 14th April: Live game
Rays @ Blue Jays
Rays @ 2.3

Angels @ 1.8
Nats @ 2.0
White Sox @ 2.2

[16-8, +7.19]

Betfair - Baseball Tuesday 14th April

Betfair - Baseball Tuesday 14th April: Live game
Rays @ Blue Jays
Rays @ 2.3

Angels @ 1.8
Nats @ 2.0
White Sox @ 2.2

[16-8, +7.19]

Betfair - Baseball Monday 13th April

Betfair - Baseball Monday 13th April: Live game
Brewers @ Cards
Wainwright has looked tough and the Brewers aren't hitting.
Cards -1.5 @ 2.3

Royals @ 1.8

[15-7, +7.39]

(Apologies for the late post)

Betfair - Baseball Sunday 12th April

Betfair - Baseball Sunday 12th April: Live game
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
Yankees ice cold, Buchholz and the Boston hitters playing well. Tanaka will need to be sharp.

Red Sox @ 1.95


Tigers @ 1.87
Royals @ 2.0
Braves @ 1.83

[13-5, +7.52]

Betfair - Baseball Saturday 11th April

Betfair - Baseball Saturday 11th April: Tigers @ 1.91
Braves @ 1.83
Reds@ 1.8
Rockies @ 1.91

[11-3, 7.78]

*We've got away at a nice clip this season, but betting on the bases is a grind. Please don't assume I'm going to give you 7+ points a week for six months!

O

Betfair - Baseball Friday 10th April

Betfair - Baseball Friday 10th April: Live game
Red Sox @ Yankees
Red Sox @ 1.91
I don't like Eovaldi at all and the Bosox are hot at the plate.

Rockies @ 1.8
Dodgers @ 1.75
Royals @ 2.15
Braves @ 2.0
Tigers @ 2.05

[6-2, 4.12]

Betfair - Baseball Tuesday 7th April

Betfair - Baseball Tuesday 7th April: Orioles @ 1.95

Davis returns for the O's. Chen a solid go, had a decent Spring; Karns off the bench for the home team who have an injury hit rotation.

[3-1, +2.13]

Betfair - Monday 6th April

Betfair - Monday 6th April: Live games
Blue Jays @ 2.38
Yanks rebuilding, but bunch of rookies for Toronto. Tanaka on his way back though and the Jays can reach him.

Nats look good, but too short.

Indians worth a small interest at 1.87

I also like:

Reds @ 1.8
Liriano 0-5 vs Reds; 0-4 at Great American Ball Park.

[Results to level stakes. 1-0, +0.95]

Betfair - Baseball is back ... and so is the blog

Betfair - Baseball is back ... and so is the blog

Live NFL - Super Bowl - New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks 11.30pm Sky Sports, Channel 4

Hubris meant the Pats burned me last week, but I figured the Colts had enough to score sufficient points to stay close ... Clang!!

Here it's the Legion of Boom against Tom Terrific and the Gronk and it should be a riveting watch. My suspicion is that the Seahawks are just a bit too one dimensional on the offensive side to get it done (who better than Belichick  to key on Lynch/Wilson?) and that Brady will be able to test Seattle's D at so many pressure points that it will break.

New England to edge it.

Pick: New England Patriots @ 2.05
Pick: Under 47 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD LaGarrette Blount @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Russell Wilson @ 3
Pick: Total Rushing Yards Marshawn Lynch Under 90.5 @ 1.91

Live NFL - Conference Championship - Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots 11.40pm Sky Sports

Everybody loves the Pats.

However, Luck has really come of age and if they can limit Gronk and the ground attack, the Colts may even progress. There's nice balance either side of the ball, and there's just too many points on offer.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts +7 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD LaGarrette Blount @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD T Y Hilton @ 2.1

Live NFL - Conference Championship - Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks 8.05pm Sky Sports

After hitting every game last week (we had porridge with milk for breakfast!) let's see what we can do as we get to the business end.

The number has bounced about a bit, but settled at -8 on the home team.

Ordinarily, this would be an automatic bet on the dog, but Rodgers' injury and the Seahawks' ferocious front seven combine to make me think that the Packers will struggle - especially if it rains. The change up to Eddie Lacy might not help as the Seattle run defense is just as aggressive, so it's Rodgers with a torn calf against the Legion of Doom on a tear.

I expect Seattle to pound the rock with Lynch; Green Bay gave up 145/1 to Dallas last week on the ground and Wilson might find room too against a Green Bay D that doesn't cope well with mobile QBs.

Keep stakes small, but I like Seattle.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -8 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Russell Wilson @ 2.62

Live NFL - Divisional Weekend - Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos 9.40pm Sky Sports

Denver are the better team, but Peyton's arm has been like wet spaghetti down the stretch - last time I backed the Broncos he was horrible - and they have a collection of injuries to key players (including Manning).

In contrast, Andrew Luck looked great against the Bengals, although he'll face a much tougher pass rush tonight. There's not much happening on the ground, so this may turn into a shootout - either way, I'd rather have the points.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts +8.5 @ 1.95
Pick: Over 53.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD C J Anderson @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD T Y Hilton @ 2.3

Live NFL - Divisional Weekend - Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers 6pm Sky Sports

Money has come in Vegas for the dog and the line has come down as a result, but I still prefer Dallas plus the points.

I'm fading the Pack because I really don't like Rodger's injury status and I'm nervous about DeMarcus Murray catching out of the backfield. Green Bay have lots of offense and I'm keeping stakes small, but the Cowboys can keep this close.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys +6 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Eddie Lacy @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Terrance Williams @ 3.25

Live NFL - Divisional Weekend - Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks 1.15am Sky Sports

The dream ends here for the Panthers. I expect Cam Newton to get beat up tonight and the ball hawking Legion of Boom for Seattle (good, huh?) may have a high old time. 

Lynch is coming off a much needed rest and with Lotulelei out for the road team, beast mode should be turned up to 11, as will the crowd.

I never thought I'd ever give this number in a game of this importance and stakes should be low, but ...

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -11.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Doug Baldwin @ 2.75

Live NFL - Divisional Weekend - Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots 9.35pm Sky Sports

Historically, the Ravens cover against New England in the post-season, but much will depend which Flacco gets off the Baltimore team bus at Foxborough and whether the Ravens can get the run going. 

The Patriots will score as Brady has too many weapons deep and the visitor's pass rush won't be as effective this week, but I like a form team getting a TD in such a big game. If they do cover, the total should go under.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens +7 @ 1.91
Pick: Under 47.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Justin Edelman @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Justin Forsett @ 2.1

Live NFL - Wildcard Weekend - Detrots Lions at Dallas Cowboys 9.40pm Sky Sports

Matt Stafford needs to get the ball to megatron. Simple.

A good enough reason to bet the dog is that everybody loves the Cowboys, but that defense is genuinely worth opposing.

Pick: Detroit Lions +6.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Joique Bell @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten @ 2.75

Live NFL - Wildcard Weekend - Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts 6pm Sky Sports

Dalton is a liability and with Green out, the Bengals are going to pound the rock all day. The way Hill is playing and the way the Colts give up big yards on the ground suggests that Cincy should have some joy, but they have to be playing from in front, or not too far behind, because if Dalton has to throw, Cincinnati are done.

The Colts have staggered into the post-season and look spent, but now they're here, and at home, I expect them to show signs of life. However, it may not be enough. Indianapolis have struggled against decent teams this season, so I'll take the points.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +4 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Jeremy Hill @ 10*
Pick: Anytime TD T Y Hilton @ 1.91

(*I like this bet at Ladbrokes)

Live NFL - Wildcard Weekend - Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers 1.15am Sky Sports

With Le'Veon Bell going down, punters have got jittery about the Steelers' chances, but with the Ravens front pretty salty as it is, Roethlisberger was always going to have to get it done through the air. Baltimore's secondary is poor, so Antonio Brown and his buddies should move the chains.

Ben has to stay upright in the face of a tough pass rush, but I'll keep faith.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Heath Miller @ 17
Pick: Anytime TD Martavis Bryant @ 2.5

Live NFL - Wildcard Weekend - Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers 9.35pm Sky Sports

Everybody is pounding the Panthers and the line has moved out to a TD in some places, after opening at -4.

This game has the look of a trappy, back door cover, but I just can't see the Cardinals mounting enough of a challenge.

Pick: Carolina Panthers -6.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Greg Olsen @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Cam Newton @ 2.75