Live NFL - New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers 12.25am Sky Sports

In a pretty dismal season (I'll update the results this weekend, I promise) last week was a washout. The Dallas game ...

Anyway, this looks like a bet on the Saints. Although their defense is poor, Cam Newton has no protection at all from his O line and New Orleans have tried to change it up on the pass rush front of late.

Drew Brees should be able to move the ball with Carolina shaky deep and their defensive front under-performing. Brees has the right targets to take advantage.

Pick: New Orleans Saints -3 @ 1.85

Pick: 1st TD Brandin Cooks @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Kelvin Benjamin @ 2.2

Live NFL - Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys 12.30am Eurosport

This better save my bacon. It's a lunatic bet, but Dallas are far too strong for Washington, particularly as the visitors have Colt McCoy at QB.

Give the lump.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -9 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 6

Pick: Anytime TD Terrance Williams @ 2.1

Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints 12.30am Channel 4

I don't get this line. 

I like the Pack's balance on both sides of the ball and Rodgers is money under center. Brees has lost some zip, Jimmy Graham is banged up and Pierre Thomas is out and the defense is beatable on a good day.

The sharps are pounding the Saints in Vegas, but hell, I didn't get in the poorhouse by accident.

Pick: Green Bay Packers +2.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Jordy Nelson @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Randall Cobb @ 2.0

Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals 8.05pm Sky Sports

The Eagles' O line is beginning to open up lanes for McCoy and he's becoming increasingly dangerous running and catching out of the backfield. Given the Cards strength at the corners, I expect him to figure along with Zach Ertz over the middle.

Arizona are benefiting from a resurgent Carson Palmer and with Larry Fitz and Michael Floyd there is talent wide out, but it's Andre Eliington who has carried much of the offense. He may find less room to operate tonight and with Palmer still likely to turnover the pill with Billy Davis scheming, Philadelphia can take this.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles @ 2.05

Pick: 1st TD Zach Ertz @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Stepfan Taylor @ 4.0

Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnatti Bengals 5pm Sky Sports

Baltimore have too much on the defensive side for the Bengals, who miss A J Green terribly; he may play today, but he's clearly carrying a bad injury. Meanwhile Steve Smith very senior defies his age to keep on putting up numbers and with Justin Forsett showing form out of the backfield, the Ravens look the bet.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens -1.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Giovani Bernard @ 9.5
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 2.1

Live NFL - Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons 1.30pm Channel 4

Atlanta's O line is in a dreadful state, exposing Matt Ryan who is getting sacked far too much. The net result is that the Falcons are struggling to move the chains using the passing game and with Detroit's LBs playing well, the 'home team's' offense may have its wings clipped.

If megatron goes (I doubt he will) the poor Atlanta defense will be in big problems - as it is is Joique Bell should put up numbers against an anaemic Atlanta defensive front. Golden Tate has done a fine job leading the receiving corps with Calvin Johnson down and look for a couple of big hook ups with Stafford.

Give the points.

Pick: Detroit Lions -3.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Joique Bell @ 9.5
Pick: Anytime TD Calvin Johnson @ 2.0; Golden Tate @ 2.0; Julio Jones @ 2.0

Live NFL - San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos 1.25am Sky Sports

I opposed Peyton Manning on national TV last week and got burned and after seeing what DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller did to the 49ers O line and the way Kansas made Rivers' life so difficult last week, I'm reluctant to oppose Peyton again. However 8.5 points is a lot to give and the Bolts have talent aplenty, so keep stakes low.

The Over might offer some value as Denver get out in front and Rivers has to throw.

Pick: Denver Broncos -8.5 @ 2
Pick: Over 51.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Ronnie Hillman @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Gates @ 2.25

Live NFL - Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers 1.30am Eurosport

God, that was an awful pick on the 49ers last night. Shameful.

The Steelers just can't get it done in the redzone, but Le'Veon Bell should find room to operate with the Texans struggling at LB with a series of injuries. On the flip side, Arian Foster looks capable of a big night against a Steeler run D that can give up yards from scrimmage.

Presumably, the Steelers will load up the box, because Ryan Fitzpatrick is gash and limiting Foster will severely handicap Houston who don't look as though they have enough on offense.

Ben Roethlisberger will be ducking and diving all night as J J Watt comes marauding through the Pittsburgh O line, but Bell with keep the Texans honest and honouring the run, and that in turn should allow Big Ben to hit Antonio Brown for a couple of big plays. There's just a touch more balance.

Give the points.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 @ 2.05

Pick: 1st TD Le'Veon Bell @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Houston D/ST @ 4.5

NFL - Week 7 Teaser

Pinny 7 point teaser

Ravens
Seahawks
Bills
Bears
Packers
Cowboys

6.0

Live NFL - San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos 1.30am Channel 4

In spite of injuries, the 49ers' defense has been strong and even with Peyton going for Brett's record on national TV, I don't have the Broncos a touchdown+ better.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers +7 @ 1.83

Pick: 1st TD Julius Thomas @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Emmanuel Sanders @ 2.1

Live NFL - New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys 9.25pm Sky Sports

Injury may be critical here too, with the Giants looking beaten up. A sparkling Dallas should be a TD better.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Larry Donnell @ 2.5

Live NFL - Cinncinatti Bengals at Inianapolis Colts 6pm Sky Sports

The Colts are playing better than expected on defense and Luck is a leading offensive star. It'll be a tough game, but the Bengals' injuries look decisive.

I'll give the field goal.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Ahmad Bradshaw @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD T Y Hilton @ 2.2

Live NFL - New York Jets at New England Patriots 1.30am Sky Sports

New England should win this going away, but laying this many points on a nationally screened game is a daunting proposition.

Pick: New England Patriots -9.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Julian Edelman @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Eric Decker @ 2.8

Live NFL - San Francisco at St Louis Rams 1.30am Eurosport

I have some concerns about the right side of the 49ers O line against some of the young bucks in the St Louis DL, but this isn't the stop unit of last year.

Lots of Frank Gore looks the recipe and although Austin Davis seems to have the talent to start in the NFL, the visitors should have too much.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -3.5 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Frank Gore @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Brian Quick @ 3.25

Live NFL - New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles 1.30am Channel 4

My least favourite teams to cap ... maybe.

The sharps have hammered the dog all the way down to less than a field goal and I tend to agree as I see two QBs heading in different directions. Eli Manning looks confident and poised, whereas Nick Foles is looking pressured and his mechanics have begun to break down in the pocket.

Again, not one to bet the kids' college fund, but I'll take the points.

Pick: New York Giants +2 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Larry Donnell @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Rueben Randle @ 2.62

Live NFL - Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks 9.25pm Sky Sports

This has the makings of a great game - the top defense in the NFL against a Dallas team that is growing in confidfence behind Tony Romo.

Seattle will need to stifle DeMarco Murray and while they clearly have the ability to do so, the Dallas O line has been excellent at clearing lanes for Murray. Romo may also be able to attack a Seahawks' defense that is banged up on the back end. Dez Bryant thrives in man to man coverage - look for a couple of big plays deep to him.

Seattle have their own beast to pound the rock of course, and Dallas have poor numbers against the run, and that is without the threat of Russell Wilson who went over 100 yards on the ground last week. Percy Harin had three TDs called back last week (of course he did, I'd backed him to score) but he can find room against this Dallas secondary.

I fully expect Seattle to win, but look for the back door cover.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys +8.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 6.0
Pick: Anytime TD Dez Bryant @ 2.25

NFL - Week 6 Teaser

Bengals (pk)
Packers (+4.5)
Broncos (-3)
Chargers (pk)
Seahawks (-2.5)
49ers (+4)

6.0

Live NFL - Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings 6pm Sky Sports

Losing Megatron pulls the teeth of the Lions and the return of Terry Bridgewater boosts the Vikings, but beware the Detroit defense; they will hound Bridgewater all day and are brutal against the run.

Not a game to get heavily involved in, but wars are won in the trenches. Enough metaphors?

Pick: Detroit Lions +2.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Eric Ebron @ 17
Pick: Anytime TD Detroit Lions D/ST @ 4.5

Live NFL - Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans 1.25am Sky Sports

The Colts are rolling and Luck has everything to do with it. Andrew Luck has got the offense purring, with a nice balance between the run game and the pass; his coaches have the right gameplan and it makes the Colts dangerous whenever the possess the ball.

J J Watt will do his best to upset the offense, but Dallas showed that he can be controlled and the absence of Clowney hurts the Texans' pass rush. Nonetheless, this will be a real test for Luck, with injuries along the Colts' O line.

The Texans go through Arian Foster as Ryan Fitzpatrick is highly unlikely to beat a team with his arm, even a Colts defense that is hardly rock solid. The problem is that Foster is not only injured, he admits he hates Thursday games. These vibes are troubling because Foster can go missing in games and it may not take much tonight.

Give the points.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Ahmad Bradshaw @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD TY Hilton @ 2.62

Live NFL - Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins 1.30am Eurosport

I had a VERY lumpy bet on Chicago (vintage Cutler) and liked the Teaser (Henery missed three field goals? Really?) so my last few quid rides onto this beauty.

Kirk Cousins fell apart under pressure last time out and with Seattle coming off a Bye, I expect them to be all over him. Washington will likely try to take the pressure off by running the ball all night, but Seattle are tough to run on. Cousins will need to throw and he tries to force the ball in in a jam; look for picks.

Betting the home dog against a team travelling West to East should be automatic, but frankly ...

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -7 @ 2.0

Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 6.0
Pick: Anytime TD Seahawks D/ST @ 4.0

Live NFL - Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots 1.30am Channel 4

Well, if I didn't have bad luck, I'd have no luck at all. Crazy.

Take the Bengals, the Patriots/Brady are stinking it up and Cincy are off a bye week.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -3 @ 2.0

Pick: 1st TD Giovani Bernard @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Rob Gronkowski @ 1.95

Live NFL - New York Jets at San Diego Chargers 9.25pm Sky Sports

The Chargers don't have much of a run game with injuries effectively shutting it down and in any case, it's difficult enough to run on the Jets.

Luckily for the Bolts, the Jets struggle mightily on the back end and Rivers is lighting it up under center. With Jets' injuries at Safety and Corner, I expect San Diego to throw all day and if the New York get behind and have to rely on the decidedly shaky Geno Smith, the Chargers should win comfortably.

Pick: San Diego -6 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Eddie Royal @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Keenan Allen @ 2.0

NFL - Week 5 Teaser

6.5pt at Pinny

Eagles (pk)
Saints (-3.5)
Cowboys (pk)
Lions (pk)
Chargers (pk)
Seahawks (-3)

@ 7.0

Live NFL - Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers 6pm Sky Sports

The Carolina corners struggled last week with Baltimore's receivers and now Marshall, Jeffrey and Bennett come into town? It's not like they have a tough run stopping defense either and Matt Forte may have a huge game.

On the other side of the ball things look only marginally better. The Panthers can't run the ball, but do have Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen over the top, but that in turn is contingent upon Cam Newton getting time to throw - the edges of the Panthers' O line collapsed all game last week and Jared Allen is back for the Bears.

This looks like a great position for the Bears, who are on a nice road streak, if only Cutler can be efficient - he doesn't need to do anything but run the offense and keep the ball out of the Panthers' hands. Hold on tight.

I like this bet.

Pick: Chicago Bears +2.5 @ 1.96

Pick: 1st TD Matt Forte @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Martellus Bennett @ 2.2; Alshon Jeffrey @ 2.38

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Vikings 1.25am Sky Sports

It's been a bumpy ride (I'll update the numbers on Sunday) but everyone's had a tough time in a crazy season, so we plough on.

I like the Pack here - they're strong at Lambeau, strong against Divisional opponents, Rodgers finally started rolling last week  and Minnesota come to town off a short week with Teddy Bridgewater limping.

Eddie Lacy needs to get going downhill (he's looked hesitant at times this season) and if the Packers get the run established they'll force the Vikings to pass against a decent pass rush and open up the field for guys like Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb.

I like Asiata close in and Jennings to score on his old team.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -7 @ 1.85

Pick: 1st TD Matt Asiata @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Greg Jennings @ 3