The Giants are strong on the road ATS (10-3-1 since 2011) and I'll take them to cover tonight.
Manning went 26 of 40 for 337, but looked slightly out of sync last week and Coughlin needs to get Bradshaw rolling, particularly catching out of the backfield now that the Cowboys have lost Sean Lee. Cruz is a beast and can prosper in this matchup where he's likely to draw Scandrick operating in the slot; look for the usual big play attempt with Cruz on the end.
Unfortunately for Dallas, they're badly depleted in the run game, because Washington ran all over the Giants last week: Phil Costa's absence won't help and the net result is that the Cowboys will need to rely on Romo's arm and he has struggled to produce consistently this season - largely because of continuing protection problems. The Giants will send four to attack the soft Dallas interior linemen and I suspect it may be a long day under centre for Tony.
Pick: New York Giants -2 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Victor Cruz @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Dez Bryant @ 2.2; NY Giants Defense @ 6.5
Sunday 28 October 2012
Live NFL - St Louis Rams at New England Patriots Sky Sports 5pm
The Patriots are still misfiring a little on offense, but judging by the Rams' pass rush last week Tom Brady will have time to look downfield - that's a dangerous luxury to afford what is still a capable side like New England. Aaron Hernandez is out, so they'll need Brandon Lloyd to find some form, but the Pats have enough weapons (and decent balance on the ground) to put up points.
The Rams are no mugs and, were it not for their problems in the redzone, they might be in a very different place in the standings going into this game. Their problems up front continue however, and even with the already poor Pats' secondary banged up, there's no guarantee St Louis will have enough to keep this within a TD.
Pick: New England Patriots -7 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Wes Welker @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Lloyd @ 3
The Rams are no mugs and, were it not for their problems in the redzone, they might be in a very different place in the standings going into this game. Their problems up front continue however, and even with the already poor Pats' secondary banged up, there's no guarantee St Louis will have enough to keep this within a TD.
Pick: New England Patriots -7 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Wes Welker @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Lloyd @ 3
Thursday 25 October 2012
Live NFL - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings Sky Sports 1.25am
AP is the beating heart of the Viking offense and with the Bucs tough against the run, the home team may have to rely a little more on Christian Ponder's arm; but Ponder has turned the ball over seven times in the last three games and the Vikes clearly suffer when he has to throw. Set against this is a ponderous Bucs' secondary, still without the suspended Aqib Talib. If Ponder is to emerge, it must be tonight and I'm expecting to see Percy Harvin, Jerome Simpson and Kyle Rudolph get more involved.
Josh Freeman had a big game last week, but it was against a Saints' defense giving up the third most yards per game through the air and the Vikings have a strong enough pass rush in Jared Allen, Brian Robison and Kevin Williams to get after Freeman tonight. I like the balance of Doug Martin on the ground and Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams out wide, but again, Minnesota are tough against the run and although they can give up the big play, Antoine Winfield is playing well and the secondary in general has stepped up.
I'll give the points.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings -5.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Percy Harvin @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Vincent Jackson @ 2.1
Josh Freeman had a big game last week, but it was against a Saints' defense giving up the third most yards per game through the air and the Vikings have a strong enough pass rush in Jared Allen, Brian Robison and Kevin Williams to get after Freeman tonight. I like the balance of Doug Martin on the ground and Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams out wide, but again, Minnesota are tough against the run and although they can give up the big play, Antoine Winfield is playing well and the secondary in general has stepped up.
I'll give the points.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings -5.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Percy Harvin @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Vincent Jackson @ 2.1
Live MLB - Game 2 World Series Detroit Tigers @ SF Giants ESPN 1am
1.92/10.50; 1.53/2.55 WHIP/ERA Madison Bumgarner; Doug Fister L3. Tigers hitting lefties at .307 L5 and Giants just hitting.
I'd prefer it without Dan Iassogna behind home, but this goes Over.
Pick: Over 7 @ 2.00
I'd prefer it without Dan Iassogna behind home, but this goes Over.
Pick: Over 7 @ 2.00
Wednesday 24 October 2012
Live MLB - Game 1 World Series Detroit Tigers @ SF Giants ESPN 1am
Verlander has been brutal this season and even more so in the post-season, which is a change of pace for him as he traditionally fell away at this time of year. Barry Zito was aces last time out, but isn't in the same league as the Tigers' hurler tonight and he'll need to reproduce that form to get close.
However, Detroit have been sitting around the clubhouse for a week drinking beers and eating hot wings, with the back end of the bullpen not having thrown in quite a while longer. Meanwhile, San Francisco have hauled themselves back from the brink, largely because of the effect of playing at AT&T Park in front of their own fans.
With the downtime and this kind of momentum the Giants must be the value - it'll be a tough go, but I'll take the price on the home dog to upset Verlander (as if dating Kate Upton weren't enough!)
Pick: San Francisco Giants @ 2.55
However, Detroit have been sitting around the clubhouse for a week drinking beers and eating hot wings, with the back end of the bullpen not having thrown in quite a while longer. Meanwhile, San Francisco have hauled themselves back from the brink, largely because of the effect of playing at AT&T Park in front of their own fans.
With the downtime and this kind of momentum the Giants must be the value - it'll be a tough go, but I'll take the price on the home dog to upset Verlander (as if dating Kate Upton weren't enough!)
Pick: San Francisco Giants @ 2.55
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