Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
The Pats look 'the team most likely' here, largely because their offense
doesn't miss a step, even when it loses key players. The question for
the purposes of picking ATS, is whether the Ravens can get within 8
points.
I've opposed Baltimore all year,and they've murdered me, but I'm
going to roll with them here: Flacco has been competent (10.8 YPA, and
five scores to zero picks) and deep threats that can give the Pats'
secondary problems. Torrey Smith will likely draw Aqib Talib, so look
for Pitta and Boldin underneath against injured safeties. Baltimore also
have run game that, even against this New England defense, is a danger.
I'll take the points.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens +8 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Ray Rice @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Aaron Hernandez @ 2.1; Wes Welker @ 2.2; Dennis Pitta @ 2.88
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
This looks like the 49ers all the way. Their O line can dominate up
front and if Colin Kaepernick can reproduce last week's form, the
Falcons, who have struggled to contain QBs who can run, could find
themselves in trouble. Atlanta have to get after Kaepernick, but with
Abraham nicked up and that O line to contend with, they'll have to blitz
hard and shouldn't get home often enough.
The Falcons rank 20th against the run and Frank Gore (backed up by
LaMichael James) can have a big game too, further complicating life for
Atlanta. Deeper, San Francisco aren't loaded with options, but do have
Michael Crabtree, whose ability to gain yards after the catch may make
him the most dangerous player on the field.
The Falcons have struggled
with TE's recently, giving up at least 50 yards in four of the last five
games, and while Vernon Davis hasn't exactly thrived with Kaepernick
under centre, he has big play potential in a game where the middle of
the field is likely to be open.
Atlanta are tough in the Georgia Dome, and Tony Gonzalez, Roddy
White and Julio Jones through the air, and Michael Turner and Jacquizz
Rodgers on the ground is no mean offense. Justin Smith in the lineup is a
boon for the 49ers' defense and they'll need to bring pressure without
exposing the secondary. Michael Turner seemed rejuvenated last week, but
is going up against Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman so he might find
it tougher going this afternoon.
The 49ers rank 4th against the pass, but the Falcons bring quite an
aerial attack and their O line has come together nicely. Matt Ryan can
operate effectively in the pocket and if he chooses his moment, this is a
secondary that can be beaten.
The 49ers have struggled on the road in the post-season, and haven't
won three in a row this season. The Georgia Dome is a loud, difficult
place to play, so the weight of money for San Francisco may have a few
anxious moments, but on balance the away team look too powerful and too
complete.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -3.5
Pick: 1st TD Colin Kaepernick @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Michael Crabtree @ 2; Julio Jones @ 2.15
Sunday 20 January 2013
Sunday 13 January 2013
Live NFL - Divisional Round 13th January
Houston Texans at New England Patriots Sky Sports 9.30pm
New England have too many weapons and are too strong against the run for the anaemic Texans to keep pace.
Pick: New England Patriots -9 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Aaron Hernandez @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Andre Johnson @ 2.65
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons Sky Sports 6pm
Apart from a couple of nice priced TD scorers, yesterday was a car wreck, and just in case I thought the football gods would give me a break, I spent an hour writing up today's games, only for one of my daughters to climb up and turn the computer off! She's done y'all a favour though - I'm not writing that crap out again.
I like the Falcons here, with a couple of reservations; Marshawn Lynch is the Seahawks' offensive lynch-pin (good huh?) and the Atlanta front have had problems against the run, so they'll need to be on their game. Russell Wilson runs well too and the 49ers showed how devastating that can be; deeper Sidney Rice is a big unit, but prone to go missing and the Seattle offense doesn't thrive through the air.
The loss of Clemons is a big blow to Seattle on other side of the ball - Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony G are all fit and I'd look for Jacquizz Rodgers to have an expanded role rushing and catching. The rested Falcons should be too good at home in the dome.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3 @ 2.05
Pick: 1st TD Julio Jones @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Tony Gonzalez @ 2.1
New England have too many weapons and are too strong against the run for the anaemic Texans to keep pace.
Pick: New England Patriots -9 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Aaron Hernandez @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Andre Johnson @ 2.65
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons Sky Sports 6pm
Apart from a couple of nice priced TD scorers, yesterday was a car wreck, and just in case I thought the football gods would give me a break, I spent an hour writing up today's games, only for one of my daughters to climb up and turn the computer off! She's done y'all a favour though - I'm not writing that crap out again.
I like the Falcons here, with a couple of reservations; Marshawn Lynch is the Seahawks' offensive lynch-pin (good huh?) and the Atlanta front have had problems against the run, so they'll need to be on their game. Russell Wilson runs well too and the 49ers showed how devastating that can be; deeper Sidney Rice is a big unit, but prone to go missing and the Seattle offense doesn't thrive through the air.
The loss of Clemons is a big blow to Seattle on other side of the ball - Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony G are all fit and I'd look for Jacquizz Rodgers to have an expanded role rushing and catching. The rested Falcons should be too good at home in the dome.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3 @ 2.05
Pick: 1st TD Julio Jones @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Tony Gonzalez @ 2.1
Saturday 12 January 2013
Live NFL - Divisional Round 12th January
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos Sky Sports, Saturday 9.30pm
The Ravens have killed me this season, with Flacco alternating between hopeless and highly competent. However, today (even giving up so many points) I'm going to take Denver to finally put an end to my nightmare.
Last week, I suggested that Ray Lewis may prove a liability, and although he made 13 tackles in the game, this quote from the Baltimore Sun may be telling, because today I expect Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos to make more of Rice’s shortcomings:
‘According to the guys over at Pro Football Focus, Lewis was the team's lowest graded defender Sunday... Of course, these grades are subjective, but Pro Football Focus is a reliable and respected stats website.’ Baltimore Sun, Jan 7
As usual, Manning will look for critical matchups in the backfield and Lewis may struggle – look for the Broncos’ tight ends going up against him. The Broncos under Manning have developed into a powerful offensive unit and both Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas have gone over 1000 yards. Denver have been excellent in pass protection and Manning should also see matchups he likes deep against the Ravens.
I expect Knowshon Moreno to see a lot of the ball and it's interesting to read ESPN's analysis where they point out, slightly worryingly, that Manning's statistics in cold weather games are not good and that for the first time this season he will be wearing a glove on his throwing hand. If that does limit the passing game in any way, Moreno will be the key to the Broncos offence. Encouragingly, Moreno had a big game against the Ravens earlier in the season.
Just as a middle linebacker may be the key to breaking open the home team's offence, it may be that the Broncos middle linebacker, Keith Brooking, proves to be the weak link in their defense. Denver played an excellent game against the pass in the last match up, but Brooking has struggled against tight ends all season and Dennis Pitta remains Flacco’s favourite target.
The Broncos shut down the run game effectively last time these two met and Ray Rice has suddenly started fumbling the ball. With this in mind, Bernard Pierce may get more touches as Baltimore will have to get the run game going with the Broncos ability to limit the offense’s options deeper down the field.
Flacco is susceptible to poor games on the road and Denver is always a tough place to go, Von Miller and Derek Wolfe can put him under real pressure and expose his erratic decision-making.
I’ll give the points.
Pick: Denver Broncos -9 @ 2.00
Pick: 1st TD Ray Rice @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Eric Decker @ 2; Denver DST @ 4
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers Sky Sports, Sunday 1.05am
San Francisco beat Green Bay earlier in the season and that was with Alex Smith under centre, so with the more capable Colin Kaepernick as their quarterback, it would seem that their chances of repeating are good. However, I like Green Bay in this game.
The Packers have struggled all season in pass protection and the arrival at right tackle of Don Barclay doesn't exactly fill me with confidence, but a couple of things have changed since that game that lead me to believe that Aaron Rodgers can dominate here. The first improvement is the development of Randall Cobb, who has become an excellent outlet for Rodgers; both he and Greg Jennings working on slants and screens can give the 49ers a headache this evening (as the home team will try to get after Rodgers) as well as opening other opportunities deeper down the field. The re-emergence of Jermichael Finley is also encouraging, but it’s the array of downfield weapons that should be the difference.
Another change from the game earlier in the season is DuJuan Harris. Justin Smith is the beating heart of an excellent San Francisco run defense, but he suffered a partially torn left triceps tendon three weeks ago and will still be favouring it if he goes tonight – running at that side may expose Aldon Smith who can struggle against the run. Harris is a no nonsense downhill runner and can offer the Pack another dimension on that side of the ball, he won’t go mad with Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman to compete with, but he’ll be an important piece in the game.
Kaepernick is a considerable threat through the air and on the ground, but with Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson back and fit and Kaepernick having problems with handling the snap, it’ll be no surprise to see Dom Capers throw all sorts of blitzes at the young QB. Deeper, Green Bay have started to come together at just the right time and while Crabtree is a real threat, his battle with Tramon Williams will be fascinating.
The key of course, is the 49ers rushing attack. Green Bay bottled up Adrian Peterson against the Joe Webb-led Vikes last week, but Webb isn’t going to beat you with his arm, so the Pack could stack the box; that can’t happen tonight against the Gore/ Kaepernick combo. It will be an exercise in damage limitation, particularly as Gore and his change-up, LaMichael James are dangerous catching out of the backfield – a traditional weakness for the Packers.
Green Bay, seemingly peaking and getting fit at the right time, should have just too much for the 49ers, so I’ll take the points.
Pick: Green Bay +3 @ 1.85
Pick: 1st TD Frank Gore @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD James Jones @ 2.62; Jermichael Finley @ 3.5
The Ravens have killed me this season, with Flacco alternating between hopeless and highly competent. However, today (even giving up so many points) I'm going to take Denver to finally put an end to my nightmare.
Last week, I suggested that Ray Lewis may prove a liability, and although he made 13 tackles in the game, this quote from the Baltimore Sun may be telling, because today I expect Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos to make more of Rice’s shortcomings:
‘According to the guys over at Pro Football Focus, Lewis was the team's lowest graded defender Sunday... Of course, these grades are subjective, but Pro Football Focus is a reliable and respected stats website.’ Baltimore Sun, Jan 7
As usual, Manning will look for critical matchups in the backfield and Lewis may struggle – look for the Broncos’ tight ends going up against him. The Broncos under Manning have developed into a powerful offensive unit and both Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas have gone over 1000 yards. Denver have been excellent in pass protection and Manning should also see matchups he likes deep against the Ravens.
I expect Knowshon Moreno to see a lot of the ball and it's interesting to read ESPN's analysis where they point out, slightly worryingly, that Manning's statistics in cold weather games are not good and that for the first time this season he will be wearing a glove on his throwing hand. If that does limit the passing game in any way, Moreno will be the key to the Broncos offence. Encouragingly, Moreno had a big game against the Ravens earlier in the season.
Just as a middle linebacker may be the key to breaking open the home team's offence, it may be that the Broncos middle linebacker, Keith Brooking, proves to be the weak link in their defense. Denver played an excellent game against the pass in the last match up, but Brooking has struggled against tight ends all season and Dennis Pitta remains Flacco’s favourite target.
The Broncos shut down the run game effectively last time these two met and Ray Rice has suddenly started fumbling the ball. With this in mind, Bernard Pierce may get more touches as Baltimore will have to get the run game going with the Broncos ability to limit the offense’s options deeper down the field.
Flacco is susceptible to poor games on the road and Denver is always a tough place to go, Von Miller and Derek Wolfe can put him under real pressure and expose his erratic decision-making.
I’ll give the points.
Pick: Denver Broncos -9 @ 2.00
Pick: 1st TD Ray Rice @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Eric Decker @ 2; Denver DST @ 4
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers Sky Sports, Sunday 1.05am
San Francisco beat Green Bay earlier in the season and that was with Alex Smith under centre, so with the more capable Colin Kaepernick as their quarterback, it would seem that their chances of repeating are good. However, I like Green Bay in this game.
The Packers have struggled all season in pass protection and the arrival at right tackle of Don Barclay doesn't exactly fill me with confidence, but a couple of things have changed since that game that lead me to believe that Aaron Rodgers can dominate here. The first improvement is the development of Randall Cobb, who has become an excellent outlet for Rodgers; both he and Greg Jennings working on slants and screens can give the 49ers a headache this evening (as the home team will try to get after Rodgers) as well as opening other opportunities deeper down the field. The re-emergence of Jermichael Finley is also encouraging, but it’s the array of downfield weapons that should be the difference.
Another change from the game earlier in the season is DuJuan Harris. Justin Smith is the beating heart of an excellent San Francisco run defense, but he suffered a partially torn left triceps tendon three weeks ago and will still be favouring it if he goes tonight – running at that side may expose Aldon Smith who can struggle against the run. Harris is a no nonsense downhill runner and can offer the Pack another dimension on that side of the ball, he won’t go mad with Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman to compete with, but he’ll be an important piece in the game.
Kaepernick is a considerable threat through the air and on the ground, but with Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson back and fit and Kaepernick having problems with handling the snap, it’ll be no surprise to see Dom Capers throw all sorts of blitzes at the young QB. Deeper, Green Bay have started to come together at just the right time and while Crabtree is a real threat, his battle with Tramon Williams will be fascinating.
The key of course, is the 49ers rushing attack. Green Bay bottled up Adrian Peterson against the Joe Webb-led Vikes last week, but Webb isn’t going to beat you with his arm, so the Pack could stack the box; that can’t happen tonight against the Gore/ Kaepernick combo. It will be an exercise in damage limitation, particularly as Gore and his change-up, LaMichael James are dangerous catching out of the backfield – a traditional weakness for the Packers.
Green Bay, seemingly peaking and getting fit at the right time, should have just too much for the 49ers, so I’ll take the points.
Pick: Green Bay +3 @ 1.85
Pick: 1st TD Frank Gore @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD James Jones @ 2.62; Jermichael Finley @ 3.5
Sunday 6 January 2013
Live NFL - Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins Sky Sports 9.30pm
NEVER cap your own team. Difficult to avoid that here! I'm already
planning my trip to follow Washington all the way to New Orleans, but
alas, it may be that the dream dies tonight.
The Seahawks are very tough on defense and even though Griffin's 102.4 passer rating is the highest ever by a rookie (and the third-best in the NFL this year) he'll find the going rough tonight. The Seattle front held both Arizona RBs and San Francisco RBs to fewer than 65 total yards, with no scores, and the outstanding rookie Alfred Morris has to get rolling to set up RGIII; without that option, Washington lose a good deal on offense. Brandon Browner is back in the Seattle secondary and that will further complicate matters for the home team.
On the other side of the ball, Russell Wilson has improved steadily as the season has gone on and is fast approaching the sort of level that'll see him in the company of RGIII and Andrew Luck. This presents a number of problems for Washington who have a mediocre pass rush and are vulnerable deep. The Seahawks' offense goes through Marshawn Lynch and again, it's a troubling matchup for a Washington front seven that is not a great run stopping unit. I expect Lynch to have a big game.
Washington will need some magic from RGIII and Alfred Morris, their receivers to make some plays and the defense to really step up - all in the face of unfavourable matchups. I hope they do, but my money is elsewhere.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -3 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD RGIII @ 4
The Seahawks are very tough on defense and even though Griffin's 102.4 passer rating is the highest ever by a rookie (and the third-best in the NFL this year) he'll find the going rough tonight. The Seattle front held both Arizona RBs and San Francisco RBs to fewer than 65 total yards, with no scores, and the outstanding rookie Alfred Morris has to get rolling to set up RGIII; without that option, Washington lose a good deal on offense. Brandon Browner is back in the Seattle secondary and that will further complicate matters for the home team.
On the other side of the ball, Russell Wilson has improved steadily as the season has gone on and is fast approaching the sort of level that'll see him in the company of RGIII and Andrew Luck. This presents a number of problems for Washington who have a mediocre pass rush and are vulnerable deep. The Seahawks' offense goes through Marshawn Lynch and again, it's a troubling matchup for a Washington front seven that is not a great run stopping unit. I expect Lynch to have a big game.
Washington will need some magic from RGIII and Alfred Morris, their receivers to make some plays and the defense to really step up - all in the face of unfavourable matchups. I hope they do, but my money is elsewhere.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -3 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD RGIII @ 4
Live NFL Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens Sky Sports 6pm
I like the Colts here. Some notes!
Flacco is too erratic to carry my money. The Ravens ditched Cam Cameron as OC when they realised Ray Rice was their best chance of winning, but Flacco's still under centre - brilliant one day, a bust the next.
Chuck Pagano was DC and secondary coach for four years in Baltimore and knows this defense well - those insights into tactics and personnel are vital. Bruce Arians also took on Baltimore for many years with the Steelers.
Chuck-strong is still playing here. Pagano's illness and the effect his battle has had on his players added a great deal to their performance - a run in the post-season will be important to them.
I think the Ravens are overrated - people have invested in them and seem reluctant to let them go, but this season has been patchy: they lost to Charlie Batch for goodness' sake.
Baltimore rested their players. This tactic has proved more and more difficult over the years (it used to be a common approach when the post-season was locked up) but teams have started to see their players return 'off the pace' after resting. Teams resting their starters are 5-15 against the spread in their first playoff game. Apparently.
Momentum. The Ravens lost four of five games in December, with a Week 16 win against the awful NY Giants their only win. The Colts won five of their final six games. Their only loss was a 29-17 loss against Houston (who beat the Ravens by 30 points).
Ray Lewis is back, sort of. An astonishing player, he looks as though he might play, but he's clearly badly injured. Could he actually be a liability?
Some qualifiers: Ray Rice will be a huge challenge for a Colts' D that has struggled against the run. Similarly, if Flacco has a good day, Indianapolis are ropey in the secondary (although Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis could prosper against the Ravens' O line) and Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta are capable.
On the subject of O lines, the Colts have exposed Andrew Luck far too much. If they keep him clean, the ageless Reggie Wayne can put up some numbers, and watch out for T.Y. Hilton who is developing into a fine, big play receiver. Vick Ballard will have a role in limiting the pressure on Luck and I have a suspicion that, as long as Indy don't fall behind early, Ballard might have a big game too.
I'll take the points and trust to Luck (geddit?)
Pick: Indianapolis Colts +7 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Vick Ballard @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Ray Rice @ 2; T.Y. Hilton @ 2.88
Flacco is too erratic to carry my money. The Ravens ditched Cam Cameron as OC when they realised Ray Rice was their best chance of winning, but Flacco's still under centre - brilliant one day, a bust the next.
Chuck Pagano was DC and secondary coach for four years in Baltimore and knows this defense well - those insights into tactics and personnel are vital. Bruce Arians also took on Baltimore for many years with the Steelers.
Chuck-strong is still playing here. Pagano's illness and the effect his battle has had on his players added a great deal to their performance - a run in the post-season will be important to them.
I think the Ravens are overrated - people have invested in them and seem reluctant to let them go, but this season has been patchy: they lost to Charlie Batch for goodness' sake.
Baltimore rested their players. This tactic has proved more and more difficult over the years (it used to be a common approach when the post-season was locked up) but teams have started to see their players return 'off the pace' after resting. Teams resting their starters are 5-15 against the spread in their first playoff game. Apparently.
Momentum. The Ravens lost four of five games in December, with a Week 16 win against the awful NY Giants their only win. The Colts won five of their final six games. Their only loss was a 29-17 loss against Houston (who beat the Ravens by 30 points).
Ray Lewis is back, sort of. An astonishing player, he looks as though he might play, but he's clearly badly injured. Could he actually be a liability?
Some qualifiers: Ray Rice will be a huge challenge for a Colts' D that has struggled against the run. Similarly, if Flacco has a good day, Indianapolis are ropey in the secondary (although Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis could prosper against the Ravens' O line) and Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta are capable.
On the subject of O lines, the Colts have exposed Andrew Luck far too much. If they keep him clean, the ageless Reggie Wayne can put up some numbers, and watch out for T.Y. Hilton who is developing into a fine, big play receiver. Vick Ballard will have a role in limiting the pressure on Luck and I have a suspicion that, as long as Indy don't fall behind early, Ballard might have a big game too.
I'll take the points and trust to Luck (geddit?)
Pick: Indianapolis Colts +7 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Vick Ballard @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Ray Rice @ 2; T.Y. Hilton @ 2.88
Saturday 5 January 2013
Live NFL - Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers Sky Sports 1am
In my season preview, Green Bay was one of my picks to win it all (for
the record, my post-season picks were: AFC Champions - Patriots. NFC
Champions - Packers. Super Bowl - Packers; Texans) and I'm going to roll
with the Pack here, although this is a lot of points to give a side
with Adrian Peterson in it.
The Vikings aren't exactly a mystery on offense: over the last 10 games of the season, Peterson ran for 1598 yards, Christian Ponder only threw for 1501! Green Bay has surrendered over 400 rushing yards to Minnesota this season. Peterson's heroics last week however, saw him carry the ball a season-high 34 times, and now he plays off a short week. It appears AD is superhuman, but that's a hell of an ask. Also, Peterson hasn't found Green Bay a happy hunting ground; the Packers have won five of the six meetings at Lambeau Field in Peterson's career, despite him putting up an average of 106 yards and scoring five touchdowns - even where he goes over 100 yards, the Vikings are still 0-3.
Beyond Peterson, there's little to get excited about on the Vikes' offense, particularly playing in the open air. Ponder is a combined 80-of-142 for 693 yards, four touchdowns, six interceptions and two lost fumbles in four games outside and the weather in Lambeau couldn't be further from the delightful, controlled climate of the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome. As it is, at some point he'll have to air out the ball and Kyle Rudolph, Jarius Wright, Michael Jenkins and Jerome Simpson hardly inspire: the loss of Percy Harvin is a considerable blow.
Green Bay are getting fit on both sides of the ball; Clay Matthews is getting fitter and Charles Woodson is back. The former will come after Ponder and is capable of causing havoc. A big game from B.J. Raji would help and he's been looking strong recently. On offense, the home team are going into this game with a full slate of receivers for the first time and with Antoine Winfield struggling, Jordy Nelson (carrying an injury), Randall Cobb, Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley are a difficult unit to control. Jared Allen and Brian Robison gave Don Barclay a terrible time last game and Green Bay will have to keep Aaron Rodgers upright, even with his skill at extending plays. A strong run game would help, but in truth the Pack are still struggling to put together some plays out of the backfield. however, DuJuan Harris looks promising, and with the Vikings concentrating on the pass, don't be surprised to see him make a couple of decent runs.
Someone other than Peterson has to get involved in the Vikes' offense and Minnesota just don't have enough to dominate a Green Bay side in Lambeau who will doubtless put up points.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -8 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Randall Cobb @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD DuJuan Harris @ 2.62; Greg Jennings @ 2.2
The Vikings aren't exactly a mystery on offense: over the last 10 games of the season, Peterson ran for 1598 yards, Christian Ponder only threw for 1501! Green Bay has surrendered over 400 rushing yards to Minnesota this season. Peterson's heroics last week however, saw him carry the ball a season-high 34 times, and now he plays off a short week. It appears AD is superhuman, but that's a hell of an ask. Also, Peterson hasn't found Green Bay a happy hunting ground; the Packers have won five of the six meetings at Lambeau Field in Peterson's career, despite him putting up an average of 106 yards and scoring five touchdowns - even where he goes over 100 yards, the Vikings are still 0-3.
Beyond Peterson, there's little to get excited about on the Vikes' offense, particularly playing in the open air. Ponder is a combined 80-of-142 for 693 yards, four touchdowns, six interceptions and two lost fumbles in four games outside and the weather in Lambeau couldn't be further from the delightful, controlled climate of the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome. As it is, at some point he'll have to air out the ball and Kyle Rudolph, Jarius Wright, Michael Jenkins and Jerome Simpson hardly inspire: the loss of Percy Harvin is a considerable blow.
Green Bay are getting fit on both sides of the ball; Clay Matthews is getting fitter and Charles Woodson is back. The former will come after Ponder and is capable of causing havoc. A big game from B.J. Raji would help and he's been looking strong recently. On offense, the home team are going into this game with a full slate of receivers for the first time and with Antoine Winfield struggling, Jordy Nelson (carrying an injury), Randall Cobb, Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley are a difficult unit to control. Jared Allen and Brian Robison gave Don Barclay a terrible time last game and Green Bay will have to keep Aaron Rodgers upright, even with his skill at extending plays. A strong run game would help, but in truth the Pack are still struggling to put together some plays out of the backfield. however, DuJuan Harris looks promising, and with the Vikings concentrating on the pass, don't be surprised to see him make a couple of decent runs.
Someone other than Peterson has to get involved in the Vikes' offense and Minnesota just don't have enough to dominate a Green Bay side in Lambeau who will doubtless put up points.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -8 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Randall Cobb @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD DuJuan Harris @ 2.62; Greg Jennings @ 2.2
Live NFL - Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans Sky Sports 9.30pm
These teams are strikingly similar in some respects: Andy Dalton has
looked poor down the stretch; in the last five games, he has seven
turnovers against four touchdowns. Similarly,Matt Schaub has thrown one
TD and three picks over the last four games.
The gameplans on defense shouldn’t be too hard to divine therefore: Mike Zimmer will blitz all afternoon against Schaub. The Bengals’ D have turned into an excellent unit as the season has gone on. Over the last eight weeks, they rank first in average points against (12.8 per game), second in sacks (31), second in turnovers (19) and third in average yards allowed (307.4) Those stats have flowed mostly from the front seven, who are going to challenge the Texans severely.
Similarly, Wade Phillips will throw J.J. Watt at Dalton. Watt has 20 1/2 sacks, 39 tackles for loss, 16 passes defended, 107 tackles and four forced fumbles on the season; he will be defensive player of the year and unless Cincinnati find a way to limit him, they’ll lose.
The reason for this fearless prediction is that the Bengals offense keys on the pass and that game has only one component. A.J. Green has 1,350 receiving yards and his 11 touchdown receptions ties for fourth in the league, but bear in mind that he was held below 60 yards in both meetings with Houston last season, including 47 in the playoff game, thanks to Johnathan Joseph who will draw Green again in this game . With the run game relatively limited with a hamstrung BenJarvus Green-Ellis (BJGE has put up yards, but that was against the Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers and Eagles) Dalton has to find Green and Gresham, who could find a nice size matchup against the Texans’ converted corners playing at safety.
The Texans have a little more balance on offense because of Arian Foster and Andre Johnson. Foster ranks second in the AFC with 1,424 rushing yards and a league-best 15 TDs on the ground. Houston was 7-0 this season when he ran for more than 100 yards. Foster took the Bengals for 24/153/2 rushing and 3/29 receiving last year. The superlative Geno Atkins, Rey Maualuga and Vontaze Burfict will need to limit the run by penetrating and bringing pressure right along the line; something they’re perfectly capable of doing; the Bengals have given up just 2.33 yards-per-carry average to opposing running backs over the past four games and an incredible one rushing TD in the last seven.
Downfield, Houston have Andre Johnson who, although he hasn’t scored a lot, has put up yards and is always targeted a ton by Schaub. Here again though, the Bengals’ D have allowed only one multiple-TD game to wide receivers all season and if Schaub can’t use play action and bootlegs, it will be difficult for him to find Johnson, or one of the multi-TEs Houston favour.
This comes down to which struggling QB fares best under what is certain to be a lot of pressure and best utilises the stars through which their offenses run. It’s a mighty close call, but I’m taking the road team and the points.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD A J Green @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Owen Daniels @ 2.75; Cincinnati DST @ 6
Pick: Over 5.5 Total Match Sacks @ 2.25
The gameplans on defense shouldn’t be too hard to divine therefore: Mike Zimmer will blitz all afternoon against Schaub. The Bengals’ D have turned into an excellent unit as the season has gone on. Over the last eight weeks, they rank first in average points against (12.8 per game), second in sacks (31), second in turnovers (19) and third in average yards allowed (307.4) Those stats have flowed mostly from the front seven, who are going to challenge the Texans severely.
Similarly, Wade Phillips will throw J.J. Watt at Dalton. Watt has 20 1/2 sacks, 39 tackles for loss, 16 passes defended, 107 tackles and four forced fumbles on the season; he will be defensive player of the year and unless Cincinnati find a way to limit him, they’ll lose.
The reason for this fearless prediction is that the Bengals offense keys on the pass and that game has only one component. A.J. Green has 1,350 receiving yards and his 11 touchdown receptions ties for fourth in the league, but bear in mind that he was held below 60 yards in both meetings with Houston last season, including 47 in the playoff game, thanks to Johnathan Joseph who will draw Green again in this game . With the run game relatively limited with a hamstrung BenJarvus Green-Ellis (BJGE has put up yards, but that was against the Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers and Eagles) Dalton has to find Green and Gresham, who could find a nice size matchup against the Texans’ converted corners playing at safety.
The Texans have a little more balance on offense because of Arian Foster and Andre Johnson. Foster ranks second in the AFC with 1,424 rushing yards and a league-best 15 TDs on the ground. Houston was 7-0 this season when he ran for more than 100 yards. Foster took the Bengals for 24/153/2 rushing and 3/29 receiving last year. The superlative Geno Atkins, Rey Maualuga and Vontaze Burfict will need to limit the run by penetrating and bringing pressure right along the line; something they’re perfectly capable of doing; the Bengals have given up just 2.33 yards-per-carry average to opposing running backs over the past four games and an incredible one rushing TD in the last seven.
Downfield, Houston have Andre Johnson who, although he hasn’t scored a lot, has put up yards and is always targeted a ton by Schaub. Here again though, the Bengals’ D have allowed only one multiple-TD game to wide receivers all season and if Schaub can’t use play action and bootlegs, it will be difficult for him to find Johnson, or one of the multi-TEs Houston favour.
This comes down to which struggling QB fares best under what is certain to be a lot of pressure and best utilises the stars through which their offenses run. It’s a mighty close call, but I’m taking the road team and the points.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD A J Green @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Owen Daniels @ 2.75; Cincinnati DST @ 6
Pick: Over 5.5 Total Match Sacks @ 2.25
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