These teams are strikingly similar in some respects: Andy Dalton has
looked poor down the stretch; in the last five games, he has seven
turnovers against four touchdowns. Similarly,Matt Schaub has thrown one
TD and three picks over the last four games.
The gameplans on defense shouldn’t be too hard to divine therefore:
Mike Zimmer will blitz all afternoon against Schaub. The Bengals’ D have
turned into an excellent unit as the season has gone on. Over the last
eight weeks, they rank first in average points against (12.8 per game),
second in sacks (31), second in turnovers (19) and third in average
yards allowed (307.4) Those stats have flowed mostly from the front
seven, who are going to challenge the Texans severely.
Similarly, Wade Phillips will throw J.J. Watt at Dalton. Watt has 20
1/2 sacks, 39 tackles for loss, 16 passes defended, 107 tackles and
four forced fumbles on the season; he will be defensive player of the
year and unless Cincinnati find a way to limit him, they’ll lose.
The reason for this fearless prediction is that the Bengals offense
keys on the pass and that game has only one component. A.J. Green has
1,350 receiving yards and his 11 touchdown receptions ties for fourth in
the league, but bear in mind that he was held below 60 yards in both
meetings with Houston last season, including 47 in the playoff game,
thanks to Johnathan Joseph who will draw Green again in this game . With
the run game relatively limited with a hamstrung BenJarvus Green-Ellis
(BJGE has put up yards, but that was against the Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers
and Eagles) Dalton has to find Green and Gresham, who could find a nice
size matchup against the Texans’ converted corners playing at safety.
The Texans have a little more balance on offense because of Arian
Foster and Andre Johnson. Foster ranks second in the AFC with 1,424
rushing yards and a league-best 15 TDs on the ground. Houston was 7-0
this season when he ran for more than 100 yards. Foster took the Bengals
for 24/153/2 rushing and 3/29 receiving last year. The superlative Geno
Atkins, Rey Maualuga and Vontaze Burfict will need to limit the run by
penetrating and bringing pressure right along the line; something
they’re perfectly capable of doing; the Bengals have given up just 2.33
yards-per-carry average to opposing running backs over the past four
games and an incredible one rushing TD in the last seven.
Downfield, Houston have Andre Johnson who, although he hasn’t scored
a lot, has put up yards and is always targeted a ton by Schaub. Here
again though, the Bengals’ D have allowed only one multiple-TD game to
wide receivers all season and if Schaub can’t use play action and
bootlegs, it will be difficult for him to find Johnson, or one of the
multi-TEs Houston favour.
This comes down to which struggling QB fares best under what is
certain to be a lot of pressure and best utilises the stars through
which their offenses run. It’s a mighty close call, but I’m taking the
road team and the points.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD A J Green @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Owen Daniels @ 2.75; Cincinnati DST @ 6
Pick: Over 5.5 Total Match Sacks @ 2.25
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