I like the Colts here. Some notes!
Flacco is too erratic to carry my money. The Ravens ditched Cam
Cameron as OC when they realised Ray Rice was their best chance of
winning, but Flacco's still under centre - brilliant one day, a bust the
next.
Chuck Pagano was DC and secondary coach for four years in Baltimore
and knows this defense well - those insights into tactics and personnel
are vital. Bruce Arians also took on Baltimore for many years with the
Steelers.
Chuck-strong is still playing here. Pagano's illness and the effect
his battle has had on his players added a great deal to their
performance - a run in the post-season will be important to them.
I think the Ravens are overrated - people have invested in them and
seem reluctant to let them go, but this season has been patchy: they
lost to Charlie Batch for goodness' sake.
Baltimore rested their players. This tactic has proved more and more
difficult over the years (it used to be a common approach when the
post-season was locked up) but teams have started to see their players
return 'off the pace' after resting. Teams resting their starters are
5-15 against the spread in their first playoff game. Apparently.
Momentum. The Ravens lost four of five games in December, with a
Week 16 win against the awful NY Giants their only win. The Colts won
five of their final six games. Their only loss was a 29-17 loss against
Houston (who beat the Ravens by 30 points).
Ray Lewis is back, sort of. An astonishing player, he looks as
though he might play, but he's clearly badly injured. Could he actually
be a liability?
Some qualifiers: Ray Rice will be a huge challenge for a Colts' D
that has struggled against the run. Similarly, if Flacco has a good day,
Indianapolis are ropey in the secondary (although Dwight Freeney and
Robert Mathis could prosper against the Ravens' O line) and Torrey
Smith, Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta are capable.
On the subject of O lines, the Colts have exposed Andrew Luck far
too much. If they keep him clean, the ageless Reggie Wayne can put up
some numbers, and watch out for T.Y. Hilton who is developing into a
fine, big play receiver. Vick Ballard will have a role in limiting the
pressure on Luck and I have a suspicion that, as long as Indy don't fall
behind early, Ballard might have a big game too.
I'll take the points and trust to Luck (geddit?)
Pick: Indianapolis Colts +7 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Vick Ballard @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Ray Rice @ 2; T.Y. Hilton @ 2.88
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