Monday 30 April 2012

MLB - Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays ESPN 12am

Going Under at the Rogers Centre is never a comfortable call, but Yu Darvish and Kyle Drabek have been strong L3 - 0.89/1.43 WHIP/ERA Darvish, 1.34/2.41 Drabek.

I'll look for Darvish to shut down the home team and Drabek to get a break against a slightly nicked up Texas offense to take this Under.

Pick: Under 9 @ 1.83

MLB - Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins ESPN 5.30pm

Sorry about mislabelling the late game last night!

This game is a straightforward pick as it features a young, talented lefty first time up against a lineup that is hitting just .146 L10 against left handed pitching: Corbin's the value.

Buehrle has good stuff, so I'll also go Under.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8/5; 2.6; 160
Pick: Under 7.5 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

Sunday 29 April 2012

MLB - San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres ESPN 9pm

Madison Bumgarner has run into form and Clayton Richard enjoys pitching against the Giants.

Go under.

Pick: Under 7 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

MLB - Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees ESPN 6pm

Another two capable pitchers who've been slow out of the blocks this season. CC Sabathia is carrying a 1.24/5.27 WHIP/ERA and Max Scherzer an even worse 1.83/8.24 going into this game.

That said, Scherzer has a 4-0 record against the Yankees with an ERA of 2.16 and Sabathia counters with a 2-0/1.80 ERA record at Yankee Stadium against the Tigers. That might suggest an Unders bet, but with the wind out to centre, even with such a high line, I'm not viewing the 1.84 as too good to resist.

Detroit's bullpen has been awful and Sherzer hasn't been going deep into games, so I'm going to rely on CC's home record and the Yankees' hotter bats to lay the runline.

Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 @ 21/20; 2.05; 105

Saturday 28 April 2012

MLB - Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies ESPN 12am

With neither team pulling up trees, I certainly can't have the Phillies at 1.6+, and the Cubs aren't filling me with joy either.

Both of these pitchers reflect their team's early problems and the stats show that they're putting too many people on with a WHIP of 2.20/1.32 for Randy Wells and Joe Blanton. While, fairly obviously, these offenses aren't rolling, the Phillies are hitting .299 L5 (.304 vs Wells) and the Cubs are hitting .309 lifetime against Blanton.

Neither bullpen has done well L3 and with a breeze out to centre forecast at Citizens Bank Park, Overs looks the value.

Pick: Over 8.5 @ 11/10; 2.1; 110

MLB - Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins ESPN 6pm

I've mentioned streaks before and these teams' respective streaks both point to a bet on the Royals.

It's that straightforward!
 
Pick: Kansas City Royals @ 25/29; 1.86; -116

Friday 27 April 2012

MLB - Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Indians ESPN 12am

The Angels are stinking it up at the moment; it won't last, but they're really struggling to get going and are on an ugly four game losing streak. They need their offense (particularly Pujols) to click and their bullpen to produce.

The batting averages and runs scored are a case in point; the Angels are batting 13 points better than the Tribe, but have scored ten runs less. Similarly, the Angels' bullpen has a 1.38/5.57 WHIP/ERA line compared to Cleveland's 1.16/2.42 L3.

Jered Weaver is 4-0 with a 2.01 ERA in six starts at Progressive Field and has carried his excellent form from last year over into this season. Justin Masterson has been poor (1.62/6.65) but seems solid at home (0.92/2.77) and as I can't have the Angels at the price, I'll bet the home dog on the basis that losing teams find ways to lose.

This looks a solid Unders bet too, but again, the price is just too short, so I'll look for a little value and go Over.
 
Pick: Cleveland Indians @ 141/100; 2.41; 141
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 11/10; 2.1; 110

Thursday 26 April 2012

MLB - Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles ESPN 12am

One team that seems to be turning in its usual early season good form (only to tank halfway through May) and the other that isn't living up to its pre-season sleeper hype.

What is particularly striking in tonight's game are the horrible numbers of the two pitchers; Drew Hutchison is 1-0, but has a 2.06/8.44 WHIP/ERA and Brian Matusz is 0-3, 2.25/7.98. That makes picking the winner awkward, because one or both of these guys could implode spectacularly against two decent enough offenses.

On balance, the value here is probably to go Over, with the pitcher, park and umpire numbers seemingly in our favour.
 
Pick: Over 9 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

Wednesday 25 April 2012

MLB - Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays ESPN 12am

Both of these pitchers have got good stuff, although Hellickson has started the season poorly (too many hits and too many walks) and Wilson got knocked about by the Rays last time he faced them in Game 1 of the ALDS. Wilson's record otherwise against Tampa Bay (and at Tropicana field) is outstanding and if he gets any run support, he'll be difficult to beat tonight.

The problem is, the Angels have been struggling to get runs home, particularly with Pujols failing to launch with his new club.

I like the streak here for the Rays and the home dog looks value.

Given Wilson's record at the Trop (1.23 ERA/.141 opposition average) and the Angels' scoring woes, I'll also take the Unders and hope Hellickson keeps it in the park.
 
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ Evens; 2.00; 100
Pick: Under 7.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

MLB - Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers ESPN 6pm

The Brewers are heavily favoured here and they should be; J.A. Happ has an 0-2/8.78 ERA in his last three starts against Milwaukee, who are hitting a combined .345 against him. Shaun Marcum, on the other hand, is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA L3 and Houston are hitting him at just a .170 clip.

The Astros are 2-8 L10 and Happ looks as though he could give up some runs this afternoon against a Brewers' lineup that seems to be heating up, so I'll take the Over and Milwaukee on the run line.
 
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 @ 59/50; 2.18; 118
Pick: Over 8 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

Sunday 22 April 2012

Live MLB - Cleveland Indians at Oakland A's ESPN 9pm

Not a thrilling prospect, this one. Cleveland are on a little streak however, and the A's are stone cold at the plate, so I'll favour the marginal road dog.

Masterson has been rocked by the A's in the past and isn't pitching well. Ross doesn't inspire much either (although he had a nice outing last time out) but it's not really a game to get heavily involved.

Pick: Cleveland Indians @ 103/100; 2.03; 103

MLB - Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers ESPN 6pm

After a touch of ill-fortune, I'm bloody but unbowed and it's worth stressing that betting on baseball is a war of attrition.

In this one, I'm going with Detroit. Colby Lewis has struggled against the Tigers (he's 2-2 with a 7.48 ERA career against them and 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA at Comerica Park) and although he's a strong pitcher, there are always some teams/parks that pitchers just don't like.

The other factor is Drew Smyly. I've spoken before of my interest in young lefties up against lineups for the first time and that's the case here. There's no doubt Smyly has the stuff, although with this Rangers lineup, it'll be some test.

Something to note - major league hitters are by definition highly adaptable (there's a lot of different stuff coming in from 60 yards away) and if you're sitting pretty on Smyly, think about laying some back when he goes through the order for a second time.

I also like the Under here.

Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 121/100; 2.21; 121
Pick: Under 9.5 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

Saturday 21 April 2012

MLB - San Francisco Giants at New York Mets ESPN 6pm

I like the Giants here; the Mets are returning to form and San Francisco are beginning to find their feet.

Ryan Vogelsong has a steady enough record against the Mets - although the sample size is small. He goes up against Mike Pelfrey who enjoys taking on the Giants and has started well this season, but his 0-5 record and 4.97 ERA in his last nine home starts hardly inspires.

San Francisco are on a qualifying winning streak, and New York a similar losing streak.
 
Pick: San Francisco Giants @ 51/50; 2.02; 102

Friday 20 April 2012

MLB - New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox ESPN 8pm

This looks like there'll be runs; both these pitchers have terrifying lines with ERAs well north of six historically in this fixture, and 4.15 and 9.82 on the season. The wind looks as though it's out to left, and it makes me want to take on a bet I'd never dream of touching usually.

Pick: Over 10.5 @ 20/21; 1.95; -105

Thursday 19 April 2012

MLB - Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers ESPN 12am

A tough call, with two streaking teams fielding pitchers who look vulnerable. The difference here may  be the number of hits Yu Darvish is giving up; 17 hits in 11 innings of work and a WHIP of 2.21 are dangerous numbers for a pitcher going up against an offense as capable as Detroit's. If he hangs one against Prince Fielder, look out, the big man likes taking Texas pitching deep.

Wilk is filling in for Doug Fister, but has been steady enough to suggest he can keep his team in this clash of the AL pacesetters.

I'll take some of the 2.11 on offer for the Tigers SU, but that's about as short as I'd like to go.
 
Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 111/100; 2.11; 111

MLB - Cincinnatti Reds at St Louis Cardinals ESPN 6.30pm

The Cards are swinging a hot stick and Bronson Arroyo can give up runs. Equally, Adam Wainwright is struggling to find his feet after Tommy John surgery. So, despite the Reds' ice cold form at the plate and my instinct to bet the under, I'll go Over for a little value.

Pick: Over 7 @ Evens; 2.0; 100

Wednesday 18 April 2012

MLB - Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox ESPN 12am

Winning (and losing) streaks are powerful tools when betting baseball games. A streak is said to become 'live' after three games.

In this case, we have Texas on a five game streak.

Pick: Texas Rangers @ 21/20; 2.05; 105

MLB - New York Mets at Atlanta Braves ESPN 5pm

This game features two pitchers who appear to be heading in different directions;

Jair Jurrjens is 1-4 with a 6.22 ERA since the All-Star break last year and carries a 7.71 ERA on the season into this game.

R.A. Dickey, on the other hand, is on a run of 14 quality starts* since July 25 and has a 2-0 record with a 2.08 ERA this year.

Dickey has a .191 Ave against this lineup, with a .290 OBP. Jurrjens' numbers are .244/.321, which is not too shabby, but even with the Braves looking strong recently, I'll take a small interest in the Mets.
 
Pick: New York Mets @ 11/10; 2.1; 110

Tuesday 17 April 2012

MLB - Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox ESPN 12am

The Bosox can't seem to get out of their own way; there was a feeling Bobby Valentine wasn't a popular choice with the players and last year's 'chicken and beers' debacle, that helped put paid to Tito, has been replaced by a spat with Valentine questioning the commitment of Kevin Youklis.

Texas, on the other hand, are confident and surging and look the value here as the road dog on a four game win streak.

Looking at the pitching splits against the opposing lineup, Colby Lewis has a worrying .289 average, but interestingly, Jon Lester has a .313 average against the Texas lineup. Lewis has traditionally struggled against Boston and at Fenway, but has started well this season.

Lester has also begun well and has a good record against the Rangers, but Texas certainly have the edge out of the bullpen and the question remains as to whether the Red Sox are really all pulling together.
Pick: Texas Rangers @ 51/50; 2.02; 102

Monday 16 April 2012

MLB - MinnesotaTwins at New York Yankees ESPN 12am

The Twins' and the Yanks' starters are both giving up runs, with team ERA's north of 4.00. These two starters are a case in point and both of them have struggled so far with ERA's of nearly 6.00.

Given that it's Yankee Stadium, the OU line is out at 10.5, but if we look at the splits against lineup, the Bombers are hitting .215 against Pavano (and he'll want to put in a good performance given his history in the Bronx) and although the Twins are hitting .302 against Garcia, they've only scored above 3 runs twice this season.

The Yankees should take this and given the relative state of the bullpens, I'll take the runline in case there is an avalanche of runs.
 
Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 @ 11/10; 2.1; 110
Pick: Under 10.5 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

Sunday 15 April 2012

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers ESPN 9pm

The Dodgers are on a five game winning streak and looking for their ninth home win in a row.

In contrast, the Padres are on a three game skid and struggling to find any form, with a 2-7 record on the season.

The bet SU is much too short and given Kershaw's ability and the Padres' .178 batting average, betting the runline looks the value here.
 
Pick: LA Dodgers -1.5 @ 6/5; 2.2; 120

Saturday 14 April 2012

Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins ESPN 6pm

The Twins have made an ugly start to the season and it's unlikely things will improve this afternoon. Nick Blackburn was poor in his first outing and this Texas lineup is hitting a collective .381 against him.

Minnesota have found runs hard to come by and although Yu Darvish was shaky in his debut for the Rangers against the Mariners - he put far too many on, a lethal failing in the MLB - he seemed to overcome what ailed him towards the end of his 5 2/3 innings.

I'll put it down to first night nerves and back him to hold Minnesota while his team mates get after Blackburn.

Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 @ 20/21; 1.95; -105

Thursday 12 April 2012

MLB - Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies ESPN 12am

After last night's fiasco, I'm a little gun shy on this one!

I'm not wildly keen on betting the weather but these are two teams batting .231/.237, it's cold and the wind is forecast in from right field. Mark Buehrle and Joe Blanton have decent enough records against these lineups, so I'm going Under again.

Pick: Under 8 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

MLB - Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals ESPN 6pm

Two pitchers with great stuff who have struggled in their first outing; both left early and will be keen to impress their new teams.

Latos has a good record against the Nats (3-1, 2.14 ERA) but the Reds dropped two at Nationals Park last year. They're also still missing Brandon Phillips in an offense that hasn't really begun to roll yet, despite a flicker against the Cards.

Washington are hitting 17 points better, and the home team's bullpen has certainly been more solid, so I'll roll with The Nationals in their home opener.

Pick: Washington Nationals @ 20/21; 1.95; -105

Wednesday 11 April 2012

MlB - Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies ESPN 12am

Betting against Halladay is a pretty bold call, and his record against the Marlins (4-3, 2.51 ERA) hardly points up a weakness, but Josh Johnson has been something of a nemesis for Halladay and sports a 5-3, 3.16 line lifetime against Philadelphia - and an even more impressive 4-0 record at Citizens Bank Park with a miserly 1.87 ERA.

Note that Philly are on a 'qualifying' losing streak too, indicating a bet against.

I like the Unders here as well; in five games against each other, these pitchers have given up a total of ten runs and with Philly struggling to hit, and Halladay capable of shutting anyone down, the Evens on offer looks a nice bet.
 
Pick: Miami Marlins @ 129/100; 2.29; 129
Pick: Under 6 @ Evens; 2.0; 100

MLB - Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays ESPN 6pm

Boston @ Toronto

Lester was strong in his first outing. Romero, who has a patchy record at best against the Red Sox, did not.

I'll take the price on Boston.

Pick: Boston Red Sox @ 5/6; 1.83; -120

Tuesday 10 April 2012

MLB - Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers ESPN 6pm

I will bore you all with the theory of betting streaks in baseball, but not today, save to say that the streak becomes 'live' at 3 wins/losses. Both these teams have started 3-0, which makes the pick difficult using just that rule.

Instead, I'll take the Tigers.

Moore goes for the Rays and those of you who've read this stuff last year, know that I favour firebrand rookie lefties (I know he came up last season, but it was late) but it'll be a tough assignment, against a pretty fearsome lineup that is red hot. Moore has had some injury problems that have affected his spring and he seems to be a slow starter, so the 1.92 Detroit looks value.

Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 25/27; 1.92; -108

Monday 9 April 2012

MLB - Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs ESPN 12am

I don't like the look of the Cubs; a bunch of old men (minus Castro) some of whom weren't much good when they came up.

Volstad has actually done ok against Milwaukee, but he's not a pitcher I trust to dominate; he gives up too many hits and right handers have battered him and there's some right handed power on show tonight for Milwaukee.

Marcum is in the last year of his contract and there's a feeling that if the Brewers don't start well, they'll begin to offload payroll, so I'd like to think these guys will be keen to impress. As it is, Marcum has the stuff and is 2-0 in two starts against the Cubbies with an ERA of just 1.93.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers @ 5/6; 1.83; -120

MLB - Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies ESPN 6pm

Hamels was strong last season and looked solid in Spring training, so I'd be reluctant to oppose him. However, I'm equally reluctant to back him at 1.67.

Anibal Sanchez is 1-6 with a 6.58 ERA at Citizen Bank Park, but the Phillies haven't looked like lighting anybody up so far, so I'll take a small interest in Unders and hope Sanchez shows some form and Philadelphia don't suddenly wake up for their home opener.
 
Pick: Under 7 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

Sunday 8 April 2012

MLB - Chicago White Sox at Texas Ranger ESPN 1am

The Rangers look as though they're seeing the ball nicely at the plate and they can reach Gavin Floyd tonight. Floyd has a 4.73 lifetime ERA against Texas and they have beaten him up in the past.

Harrison was a revelation last year and has a 3.54 ERA in five career starts against the White Sox.

Those of you who follow me, know that I'm very reluctant to bet the runline (and I've already made a dumb bet like that this season) but it looks value here.
 
Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 @ 6/5; 2.2; 120

MLB - New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays ESPN 6.30pm

I like the Over here. The Rays have started nicely, and the Yanks' Phil Hughes had a difficult year last year and will be searching for form early in this term.

Similarly, Hellickson had a poor Spring training and will need to be better against a team that has generally fared well against him.

The weather looks set fair and there should be runs from two capable offenses.

Pick: Over 8 @ 20/21; 1.95; -105

Saturday 7 April 2012

MLB - St Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers ESPN 9pm

Wainwright, 7-4 with a 2.06 ERA in 21 games against the Brewers, is on the way back from Tommy John surgery that saw him miss all of last season.

Zack Greinke was strong against the Cards in 2011, until the post-season, when he got badly roughed up. He is 5-3 with a 3.75 ERA lifetime versus the Redbirds.

St Louis have had the sign over Milwaukee recently and have started well and I can't resist odds against on an arm like Wainwright's, even if it is surgically repaired.
 
Pick: St Louis Cardinals: 28/25; 2.12; 112

MLB - Atlanta Braves at New York Mets ESPN 6pm

The poor old Mets - I've always had a soft spot for them and saw them occasionally at the old Shea when I was in town, but things are tough after Madoff met Wilpon. There's no money, players have left, Major League Baseball is keeping an eye on the situation and there's not much fun to be had at Citi Field these days.

The Metropolitans saw off the 'offense-lite' Braves in the first game of this series, but the 1.9+ on offer for Atlanta looks too attractive to swerve here. Dickey is up for the home team and like all knuckleballers, it's feast or famine. If the wind is behind and the weather fair, he can be tough, but Dickey is a notoriously slow starter and could be vulnerable this afternoon.

Jair Jurrjens has good stuff and carries a 2.94 ERA in 13 starts against New York into this game. The Braves' hitters may find a little power and so Atlanta look the bet.

I'd be tempted by the Unders, too, but the Mets have radically altered the fences in the off-season to make Citi Field more hitter friendly, so I'll leave it and see how the 'new' park plays.

Pick: Atlanta Braves @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

Friday 6 April 2012

MLB - San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks ESPN 12am

This should be a cracking game. There's history, a little bad blood, two fine pitchers and an early opportunity to put a marker down for the NL West title.

Lincecum doesn't enjoy facing the Diamondbacks and although this will be hard fought, I like the 1.95 on offer for the home team and even at Chase Field, I'll also go Under.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks @ 20/21; 1.95; -105
Pick: Under 7 @ Evens; 2.00; 100

MLB - Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers ESPN 6pm

If not actually rebuilding, the White Sox are trying to reinvigorate and regather their side under new rookie manager Robin Ventura. After losing Mark Buehrle, Sergio Santos and Carlos Quentin and seeing their established players under-perform last season, it may be a significant task.

I like Texas for the AL West, they will put up big numbers on offense (and have added bats including Nelson Cruz) and made a nice move signing Yu Darvish.

Today, Texas are best price 1.56 and with this pitching matchup, I can't have them. Colby Lewis has had success against the White Sox, but sports a 5.93 ERA against them lifetime. John Danks has just signed a big contract and will be looking to show he's worth $65 million over five-years.

Danks has a 3.81 ERA against Texas, and although it's a tough ask, Chicago look a live chance at 2.75 with him on the mound.

Pick: Chicago White Sox @ 7/4; 2.75; 175

Thursday 5 April 2012

Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers ESPN 6pm

Boston @ Detroit
 
Two teams that are best watched at such an early stage.

Detroit have made a clear statement of intent bringing Fielder in and expectations are sky high. With Cy Young winner Verlander on the mound this afternoon, they look good for the win against a Bosox team that must be wondering what this season has in store after a horrible September and losing their new closer just before the season opener.

Backing below 1.75 is not recommended, but if you must, the Tigers look the bet. Although Lester was poor at the back end of last season, it was a symptom of the wider malaise at Fenway, so I'll go Under.
 
Pick: Under 7 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

Wednesday 4 April 2012

MLB - St Louis @ Miami Marlins ESPN 12am

St Louis @ Miami
 
Miami are ready to rock; a new stadium, a new name, new uniforms, and free agent signings Jose Reyes, Heath Bell, and Mark Buehrle. Josh Johnson is aces and while I generally like to oppose these guys early in the season, I'm not only going to break that rule, but also break my other habit of never betting the runline.

With Lohse on the mound, the team missing a couple of players and staring at Albert's empty 'plane seat, this could be a tough opener for the Cards.
 
Pick: Marlins -1.5 @ 5/4; 2.25; 125

2012 MLB Preview

AL East

The Yankees have improved their rotation and if it weren't for the age of the lineup, they would still remain value at odds on. Boston shipped out their GM in the wake of last year's catastrophe and threw Francona after him, and their restructuring of the back end of the pen has been blighted by Bailey’s thumb, so it may be a little soon for the new front office and manager to achieve success.

I think the value here is the Tampa Bay Rays, who are a more than live chance. Their pitching and defense is outstanding and if some of their hitters can find a little form they can go deep into the post-season

Pick: AL East Tampa Bay Rays @ 11/2; 6.5; 550

AL West

This is a straight race between the LA Angels and the Texas Rangers. The Oakland A's are rebuilding again and Seattle couldn't get runs after a plate of curried mussels, so we are left with the Rangers and the Angels.

Given the depth of the Texas pitching and the offence they are capable of pulling up I am going to favour them at odds against; I can't trust the Angels rotation at odds-on.

Pick: AL West Texas Rangers @ 23/20; 2.15; 115

AL Central

Detroit. Going out and getting Prince Fielder and committing that much money sends only one message and it's difficult to see anyone stopping the Tigers from taking the title in this otherwise weak division. The price is too short for my tastes, but it should provide a relatively certain 27% on your money.

Pick: AL Central Detroit Tigers @ 27/100; 1.27; 127

NL East

The Mets are horrible, the Marlins lack depth on the mound (although they boast a significant offense) as do the Nationals and the Phillies may struggle on offense like they did last year down the stretch; even with that great rotation they look too short.

I'm going to take a punt here and take the Braves. Make no mistake, this is a real punt and I wouldn't advise a heavy bet, however Atlanta have the potential to click on offense and if key members of the rotation return successfully from injury, they could be value at the price.

Pick: AL Central Atlanta Braves @ 7/1; 8.00; 700

NL West

It's the Giants and the Diamondbacks in the market and it's difficult to disagree with the money, but of the two I favour the Giants. The return of Posey and Melky Cabrera coming to the Bay should re-energise the offence and their pitching remains stellar. Arizona on the other hand will need their pitchers to exceed themselves to mount a serious challenge.

San Francisco Giants @ 13/8; 2.63; 163

NL Central

Adding Latos into the mix and the Reds are as potent a mixture on the mound and through the lineup (especially in such a hitter friendly park) as any in baseball. Madson going down is a worry, but Sean Marshall can get it done. With the loss of Pujols and Fielder in the NL Central it makes the Reds more than ever ‘the team most likely’. They’ve signalled their intent by giving Votto a pile of money and throw in rookies like Zack Cozart and Devin Mesoraco and Cincinnati look the bet.

Pick: NL Central Cincinnati Reds @ 8/5; 2.6; 160

Beyond that?

AL Pennant: Tampa Bay Bays @ 14/1; 15; 1400
NL Pennant: San Francisco Giants @ 10/1; 11; 1000

World Series: Tampa Bay Rays @ 25/1; 26; 2500

Good luck!