Live MLB - Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees 6pm ESPN

Scott Feldman seems happiest on the road, and Ivan Nova enjoys pitching in the Bronx. However, Feldman hasn't thrived against the Yankees and Nova is allowing a lot of base runners.

The Orioles' offense has cooled a little, but they're hitting righties at a .280 clip L3.

I have a feeling there may be runs.

Pick: Over 9 @ 2.05

73 - 74 (+5.26)

Live MLB - Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox 12am ESPN

Bud Norris ain't gonna hold the Red Sox offense in check with a 2.09/7.63 WHIP/ERA L3.

I'll give the runs.

Pick: Red Sox -1.5 @ 2.15

Live MLB - Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners 8.40pm ESPN

Well, that was close!

As Covers.com said 'Beating up Chen the way the Sox did is no small task. ... In 16 starts this season, he had only allowed more than three earned runs in a given start twice.

Well, Boston put that right, and made me look a complete chump.

For some reason, Hernandez doesn't cope too well with Texas. He has a 12-19/3.94 ERA line against them lifetime and I can't back him this afternoon.

Instead, I'll invest in the road dog again with Perez boasting a 1-1/2.49 ERA against the Mariners in three starts.

Pick: Texas Rangers @ 2.1

72 - 73 (+5.16)

Live MLB - Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox 12am ESPN

I'm going with the pitchers' records against tonight's opposition in this one.

Doubront is 0-2 with a 3.58 ERA in seven career games (four starts) against Baltimore and the Bosox are 1-3 in those starts.

Wei-Yin Chen has put in three quality starts against the Red Sox in his last three outings. He needs to avoid the long ball, and Boston are running hot, but he looks value here, with the Birds going 3-1 with him on the hill.

Pick: Baltimore Orioles @ 2.17

72 - 72 (+6.16)

Live MLB - Cincinnati Reds at St Louis Cardinals 12am ESPN

This looks like Overs as well. 

Both pitchers have been knocked about by tonight's opposition and have posted poor numbers L3.

I'm actually not a fan of the Overs bet, and last night was a lucky call with Peavy pitching a beauty, but there's some offense on offer tonight and Leake and Lyons look vulnerable.

Pick: Over 9 @ 1.95

 71 - 72 (+5.21)

Live MLB - Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers 1am ESPN

Chris Capuano has really struggled of late and is 2-4 with a 6.23 ERA at home. 

Jake Peavy has had some success against the Dodgers, but it was long, long ago in a ballpark far, far away - well, not that far: San Diego to be accurate. He hasn't been nearly as impressive this year.

I like the Overs.

Pick: Over 8 @ 1.95

70 - 72 (+4.26)

Live MLB - Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers 9pm ESPN

Two teams on very different runs of form and Hyun-Jin Ryu shouldn't disappoint.

Even at this price, it looks value.

Pick: LA Dodgers @ 1.87

70 - 71 (+5.26)

Live MLB - Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies 12am ESPN

These two pitchers are DEALIN'.

Miley is 1.09/2.86 L3 and Hamels is 0.87/1.96. 

Unders looks the call.

Pick: Under 7 @ 2.0

70 - 71 (+5.26)

Live MLB - Atlanta Braves at St Louis Cardinals 1am ESPN

Paul Maholm (6.03 ERA on the road, 4-7 with a 4.06 ERA in 18 career starts against St. Louis) coming off the DL against the Cards who are hitting .271 L5?

Betting the home team on the runline is not a bet I favour (note the earlier game!) as the hook hurts, but Joe Kelly is 4-0 with a 2.23 ERA in seven starts since July and it looks the bet here.

Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 @ 2.55

69 - 71 (+3.71)

Live MLB - Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds 5.30pm ESPN

Two teams who are facing different run-ins: Arizona look like they're falling away in the race for a wildcard, Cincinnati can take control of their destiny.

Cahill has been patchy on the road and is coming back from injury. Latos is pitching beautifully and K'd 13 Diamondbacks when  he faced them in June.

This should be an unequal struggle.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 @ 2.2

69 - 70 (+4.71)

Live MLB - Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles 12am ESPN

Hellickson is not the pitcher of old and the O's need to make a move or risk dropping out of the wildcard race.

Chen has gone backwards recently, so the Overs are an option, but I'll take the price on the home favourite and play against the visitors' streak.

Pick: Baltimore Orioles @ 1.81
  
68 - 70 (+3.9)

Live MLB - Boston Red Sox at San Francisco Giants 8.45pm ESPN

Six runs in the ninth to blow the bet? It looks like bad luck, but Gonzalez was poor and we were lucky to go into the final frame in such good shape - still it was disappointing.

This one looks ugly. Felix Doubront was going along nicely, but got clattered in his last game. Zito, on the other hand, is returning from the wasteland of the bullpen whence he was banished.

There's a distinct possibility that the Red Sox, even though they have stumbled recently and haven't enjoyed interleague play this year, could put up some runs this afternoon facing a less than stellar Barry Zito.

I'll go for broke.

Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 @ 2.1
Pick: Over 7.5 @ 1.91

66 - 70 (+1.98)

Live MLB - Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles 12am ESPN

I can't oppose my beautiful birds.

These two pitchers have decent enough stuff, even if their numbers don't suggest a pitching duel. 

If you subscribe to the, 'a pitcher is only as good as his last game' school of thought, Cobb pitched well last time out against Seattle after being nearly de-nogginised (any Seinfeld fans?) in June and looks in good form.

Gonzalez has solid numbers against the Tampa Bay Rays and like Cobb has pitched well of late, carding two quality starts.

It's always a nervous call at Camden Yards, but I'll go Under.

Pick: Under 8.5 @ 2.0

66 - 69 (+2.98)

Live MLB - New York Mets at Minnesota Twins 7pm ESPN

Dillon Gee has really turned things around this season and has a 1.02/1.74 line L3. Which contrasts with Gibson's 1.86/6.43.

The Twins are on a three game losing streak and the Mets seem to be enjoying interleague play making them the value here.

Pick: NY Mets @ 2.16
  
65 - 69 (+1.82)

Live MLB - Cleveland Indians at Oakland Athletics 9pm ESPN

I don't know if any of you caught last night's game - it was bizarre. 

I've seen a pitcher lose his control, but Strasburg hit the backboard 15ft wide of the batter (after hitting Upton first up!) Marvin Hudson looked completely bemused when he tossed him and I would love to have been a fly on the wall of the clubhouse. Both teams used their whole pens and five hours put it away.

Great stuff.

This game has two pitchers that make me nervous. Milone has done well in the minors, but the bigs are less forgiving (that's why he was sent down, after all!) whereas Kazmir has seemingly risen from the dead after a long absence.

I'm tempted to go Over, but the price is a little skinny, so I'll take the road dog for value as Kazmir has pitched well against the A's already this season.

Pick: Cleveland Indians @ 2.15
  
65 - 68 (+2.82)

Live MLB - Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves 12am ESPN

These two pitchers are in Jeff Sagarin's top ten.

Unders it is, then.

Pick: Under 6.5 @ 2.0

65 - 67 (+3.82)

Live MLB - New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox 12am ESPN

Andy Pettitte is struggling and Felix Doubront got knocked about last time out.

I'll take a little of the Overs as both teams are likely to be swinging for the fences against vulnerable pitchers.

Pick: Over 9 @ 1.91 
  
64 - 67 (+2.91)

Live MLB - Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers 12am ESPN

The Tigers are knocking people about and can reach Guthrie tonight.

Anibal Sanchez has been brutal since the All-Star break.

Pick: Detroit Tigers -1.5 @ 2.15
 
63 - 67 (+1.76)

Live MLB - Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees 6pm ESPN

Hughes on the hill at home and he's not the dog?

C'mon.

Sorry, for the late one: go Over too with a surging offense in the Bronx.

Pick: LA Angels @ 2.03
Pick: Over 8.5 @ 1.95

Live MLB - Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves 12am ESPN

One of the pitfalls of picking live TV games is that, of course, many of the games are not ones I would ordinarily bet on. This is one of those games.

These are two pitchers who can give up runs, the problem is that these offenses aren't really clicking.

Ethan Martin is the most vulnerable and that probably plays strongest here, as the Braves are certainly 'the team most likely', but not at the price. Will Little behind home might be encouraging, although I'm always sceptical about Overs' umps.

Nevertheless, the call is Overs.

Pick: Over 8.5 @ 2.0

61 - 66 (+0.78)

Live MLB - Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees 12am ESPN

Darvish throws a one hit, 15k game and the Rangers leave 12 on ... fuggedabatit!

I like the Unders here.

Kuroda has pitched well this season and is 1.10/1.29 L3. Garrett Richards is less inspiring but has pitched some nice games since coming back up and is 1.00/2.50 L3.

The Angels and the Yankees are hitting righties at .218/.217 L5 respectively.

Pick: Under 8 @ 1.91

60 - 66 (-0.13)

Live MLB - Texas Rangers at Houston Astros 7pm ESPN

I love young lefties on a roll going up against a team that haven't seen him before - but not here.

It's often great value (Oberholtzer and the Astros can be backed at better than 2/1 ML) but the Texas' O is too powerful and Yu Darvish is a beast. Oberholtzer hasn't exactly ripped it up in Oklahoma or Corpus Christi this year either.

Factor in the matchup history and the streaks both playing against the home team and the runline looks the value.

Pick: Texas Rangers -2 @ 1.95

60 - 65 (+0.87)

Live MLB - Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Dodgers 1am ESPN

That was a tough loss to take: should've stayed Over!

Kershaw is a gold-plated ace, but has suffered a bit from a lack of support from his offense; however, the Dodgers are hitting righties at a .375 clip L5.

Hellickson is scuffling a bit and the Rays' bats have cooled dramatically.

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 @ 2.25

59 - 65 (-1.12)

Live MLB - Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees 6pm ESPN

Andy Pettitte looks vulnerable here; he has struggled recently and is going up against a Tigers' offense that is purring. 

In contrast, Verlander is coming off his strongest outing of this term.

I don't like the price on the totals (I might have had a touch of Overs) but I do like Paddy Power going Evens on the runline.

Pick: Detroit Tigers -1.5 @ 2.0

 59 - 64 (-0.12)

Live MLB - Chicago Cubs at St Louis Cardinals 12am ESPN

I don't like either of these pitchers enough to invest in them, so that really only leaves the totals.

Neither team is hitting the cover off the ball, and Busch Stadium is not an Overs park, but both teams have offenses that can put up runs and I like the price.

Pick: Over 7.5 @ 1.91

58 - 64 (-1.03)

Live MLB - Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees 12am ESPN

The Tigers roll into the Bronx attempting to make history after winning 12 straight. 

That's a pretty tough streak to give up on at the price (and they've shortened in the last couple of hours) but the Yankees' Ivan Nova has been strong L3 and who knows what effect A-Rod's return will have.

However, Porcello hasn't been too shabby either and Nova has an 0-2 record and 8.83 ERA in four appearances (three starts) against Detroit. 

I'll stick.

Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 1.88

58 - 63 (-0.03)

Live MLB - Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians 12am ESPN

Like the Atlanta pick earlier in the week, there seems little point in opposing the streak, particularly with this pitching match-up.

With the Tigers on the road, I'll also give the runs.

Pick: Detroit Tigers -1.5 @ 1.95

57 - 63 (-0.98)

Live MLB - Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants 8.30pm ESPN

The Brewers and the Giants are hitting righties at .185 and .226 respectively L5.

Lincecum has shown some form of late - 15 innings of 3 run ball while striking out 14. Donovan Hand doesn't fill me with confidence, but the home team are struggling to get players home, so Unders looks the call.

Pick: Under 7 @ 1.95

56 - 63 (-2.93)

Live MLB - Baltimore Orioles at San Diego Padres 8.30pm ESPN

Both Miguel Gonzalez and Eric Stults have been roughed up recently and while the O's haven't hit lefties well on the season, they've hit them at a .316 clip L5.

Stults has been solid at home, but the O's have the offense to get after him. Similarly, Gonzalez has struggled of late, but seems happier on the road.

I'm tempted by the birds on the runline, but I have a feeling one, or both of these pitchers will get touched up this afternoon.

Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.15

55 - 63 (-4.08)

Live MLB - Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals 12am ESPN

Streaks become 'live' after three games - the Braves are eleven in, so if you've been betting the streak, daddy should have new shoes by now!

Pick: Atlanta Braves @ 1.9

54 - 63 (-5.98)

Live MLB - Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals 12am ESPN

With these two on the hill, I'm going Under.

Pick: Under 7 @ 1.91

Live MLB - St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds 12am ESPN

Tony Cingrani has nasty stuff and great numbers to show for it: 0.96/1.53 WHIP/ERA L3. Unfortunately, the Reds are hitting .190 L5.

The veteran Jake Westbrook has been less impressive L3 (1.47/4.42) but has a solid 3.36 ERA lifetime against Cincinnati.

I'll go Under.

Pick: Under 8 @ 2.00

53 - 62 (-5.89)

Live MLB - Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs 9pm ESPN

Greedy on the hopeful punt and I got what I deserved - the hook!

This one looks like a straightforward call as long as the wind isn't out at Wrigley (so check it before 1st pitch)

Both pitchers are coming off great outings and have pitched well on the season.

Pick: Under 9 @ 2.05

  52 - 62 (-6.94)