Laying 5 points at home with Rodgers? The line touched 7 on Monday!
Kansas can do some damage with Jamaal Charles, but things have to work out for him (not least a HC who doesn't feed him the ball and he should avoid fumbling the game away) and the Packers handled Marshawn Lynch.
The big worry is if the Chiefs fall behind, Alex Smith will have to throw the pill to keep up and that's a risky proposition - it's worth noting that Kansas have not thrown a TD to a wide receiver in 18 games. Travis Kelce will get looks in the Red Zone and is worth some interest to score at 2.62.
Rodgers has a depleted cast, but I've got to lay 5 at Lambeau. I like the Over too.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -5 @ 2
Pick: Over 47.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Jamaal Charles @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Travis Kelce @ 2.62
Tuesday 29 September 2015
Sunday 27 September 2015
Live NFL - Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions 1.30am
Peyton is shot, notwithstanding an amazing second half last week and I don't like the fit with Kubiak; one prefers operating no huddle out of the shotgun and the other likes his QB under centre. Add in an O line like a sieve and getting any offense going is a worry if you're going to lay down your hard earned.
However, Matt Stafford just plain stinks. Really. Horrible. Now he's playing banged up against the only thing the Broncos bring with any consistency - a tough defense but that should be all that's required.
Pick: Denver Broncos -3 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD CJ Anderson @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Eric Ebron @ 3.4
However, Matt Stafford just plain stinks. Really. Horrible. Now he's playing banged up against the only thing the Broncos bring with any consistency - a tough defense but that should be all that's required.
Pick: Denver Broncos -3 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD CJ Anderson @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Eric Ebron @ 3.4
Live NFL - Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins 9.25pm
The Bills' defense should be the difference in this pick 'em after their humiliation against the Pats.
Suh will be a problem against a Buffalo interior that isn't exactly giving their QB an armchair ride, but beyond that the fins' D hasn't shown up.
Tannehill will try to exploit the Bills D with short and intermediate passes over the top the way Brady did last week, but Tannehill's O line will have problems against the Bills' front seven and they won't afford him as much time as cheatin' Tom got.
Pick: Buffalo Bills @ 2.2
Pick: 1st TD LeSean McCoy @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jarvis Landry @ 2.5
Suh will be a problem against a Buffalo interior that isn't exactly giving their QB an armchair ride, but beyond that the fins' D hasn't shown up.
Tannehill will try to exploit the Bills D with short and intermediate passes over the top the way Brady did last week, but Tannehill's O line will have problems against the Bills' front seven and they won't afford him as much time as cheatin' Tom got.
Pick: Buffalo Bills @ 2.2
Pick: 1st TD LeSean McCoy @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jarvis Landry @ 2.5
Live NFL - New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers 6pm
This football season is getting depressing on both sides of the pond.
Brees is gone, and the Saints' secondary is gimpy too. Laying nine points is crazy, but I'm desperate!
Pick: Carolina Panthers -9 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Cam Newton @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Greg Olsen @ 2.2
Brees is gone, and the Saints' secondary is gimpy too. Laying nine points is crazy, but I'm desperate!
Pick: Carolina Panthers -9 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Cam Newton @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Greg Olsen @ 2.2
Thursday 24 September 2015
Live NFL - Washington Redskins at New York Giants
Washington are going to run all night - partly because they've
discovered a helluva run game (Bill Callahan, big surprise) and partly
to keep the ball out of Kirk Cousins's hands. Both Morris and discovery
of the year so far Jones can put up big numbers against a soft Giants D
line. Garçon will get looks, as will Reed close in, but it's likely to
be ground and pound on that side of the ball for the visitors.
QB worries don't just extend to Washington; Eli Manning has been generally awful. To be fair, with Cruz out, he hasn't got much to throw to, but his lack of consistency even moved Coughlin to criticism this week. Washington are decent up front and with the Giants' backfield not lighting it up (Vereen is operating as help with the passing game these days and getting the most touches) Manning could have problems.
To be honest this looks a trappy affair. Washington have been horrible on the road and the Giants tend to dominate them, so it's difficult to invest too heavily, but I like Washington's momentum and their game matches up nicely against a team that might struggle to move the chains.
Pick: Washington Redskins +3 @ 2.05
Pick: 1st TD Jordan Reed @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Matt Jones @ 2.75
QB worries don't just extend to Washington; Eli Manning has been generally awful. To be fair, with Cruz out, he hasn't got much to throw to, but his lack of consistency even moved Coughlin to criticism this week. Washington are decent up front and with the Giants' backfield not lighting it up (Vereen is operating as help with the passing game these days and getting the most touches) Manning could have problems.
To be honest this looks a trappy affair. Washington have been horrible on the road and the Giants tend to dominate them, so it's difficult to invest too heavily, but I like Washington's momentum and their game matches up nicely against a team that might struggle to move the chains.
Pick: Washington Redskins +3 @ 2.05
Pick: 1st TD Jordan Reed @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Matt Jones @ 2.75
Sunday 20 September 2015
Live NFL - Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles 9.25pm
Dallas thrive on the road as dogs ATS, but losing Bryant on offense and with players still out on defense in the teeth of this Philly O at home, with a chip on their shoulder (genius) after last week and DeMarco Murray on a mission ...
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -5 @ 1.97
Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten @ 2
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -5 @ 1.97
Pick: 1st TD DeMarco Murray @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten @ 2
Live NFL - New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills 6pm
Tyrod Taylor (a player I have stashed in a few dynasty and keeper leagues because I really rate him) did ok last week in an offense that casts him as a game manager at the moment. He won't be allowed to throw much, but he still made a couple of nice passes last time out and the Pats' secondary is soft. Taylor also always carries the run threat.
The Bills have to put together a run game and the injury reports on McCoy are scary, but it looks as though he'll play. Karlos Williams out of Florida State is next off the rank and doesn't lack talent to match his bulk (hence the Fred Jackson/Bryce Brown sacrifice. The Buffalo run is going up against a frankly poor Pats' run D and Rex Ryan will pound the rock all day, the question is whether that'll produce enough points.
Brady will have a tough go today against a talented, aggressive defense and a coach who has something of a sign over the Pats. New England's young O line should struggle and Tom will need to be on his toes. The Bills will try to take away the short pass and sit on the Gronk and it's worth noting Ryan has schemed that type of defence successfully before.
However, I think there's some value with the Pats with an overreaction to the Bill's result in Week 1.
The line has flip flopped, with the Pats opening at -1.5, through a pick 'em, to now Bills -1.
I'll take the Pats SU.
Pick: New England Patriots @ 2
Pick: First TD Dion Lewis @ 19
Pick: Anytime TD Julian Edelman @ 2.62
The Bills have to put together a run game and the injury reports on McCoy are scary, but it looks as though he'll play. Karlos Williams out of Florida State is next off the rank and doesn't lack talent to match his bulk (hence the Fred Jackson/Bryce Brown sacrifice. The Buffalo run is going up against a frankly poor Pats' run D and Rex Ryan will pound the rock all day, the question is whether that'll produce enough points.
Brady will have a tough go today against a talented, aggressive defense and a coach who has something of a sign over the Pats. New England's young O line should struggle and Tom will need to be on his toes. The Bills will try to take away the short pass and sit on the Gronk and it's worth noting Ryan has schemed that type of defence successfully before.
However, I think there's some value with the Pats with an overreaction to the Bill's result in Week 1.
The line has flip flopped, with the Pats opening at -1.5, through a pick 'em, to now Bills -1.
I'll take the Pats SU.
Pick: New England Patriots @ 2
Pick: First TD Dion Lewis @ 19
Pick: Anytime TD Julian Edelman @ 2.62
Thursday 17 September 2015
Live NFL - Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs 1.30am
Tough pick. Denver can't score an offensive point and yet their defense looks brutal. Manning almost looks done, but it's impossible to rule out a guy with that much talent and but for a couple of misses he would've got on the board.
Kansas put the Texans away last week, the garbage time scores flattered Houston, but the Chiefs struggled in pass protection and Denver can swarm all over Alex Smith. Crucially, Denver were tough against the run and the Kansas offense still goes through Jamaal Charles, despite signs of life in the pass game. If the run game stutters, the Chiefs are in trouble.
I try to avoid trends in football, I don't believe they're helpful, but it should be noted that Denvers has owned Kansas City recently, even at Arrowhead and even with Tebow under center.
I have to take the points and I'll buy the half. I also like the Under.
Pick: Denver Broncos +3.5 @ 1.85
Pick: Under 42.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Travis Kelce @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Demaryius Thomas @ 2.5
Kansas put the Texans away last week, the garbage time scores flattered Houston, but the Chiefs struggled in pass protection and Denver can swarm all over Alex Smith. Crucially, Denver were tough against the run and the Kansas offense still goes through Jamaal Charles, despite signs of life in the pass game. If the run game stutters, the Chiefs are in trouble.
I try to avoid trends in football, I don't believe they're helpful, but it should be noted that Denvers has owned Kansas City recently, even at Arrowhead and even with Tebow under center.
I have to take the points and I'll buy the half. I also like the Under.
Pick: Denver Broncos +3.5 @ 1.85
Pick: Under 42.5 @ 1.95
Pick: 1st TD Travis Kelce @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Demaryius Thomas @ 2.5
Monday 14 September 2015
Live NFL - Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons 00.10am
People like the look of the Eagles, and they've had a great pre-season (it's pushed the line out by a point and a half) so going into the Georgia Dome they look an attractive proposition.
However, Atlanta have gone out and tried to fill the obvious deficiencies and if anyone is going to build a defence, it's Dan Quinn. The problem is, it may be too soon to meet a high octane offense like the Eagles.
Of course Philadelphia are also trying to restructure a secondary that was often woeful last season and Matt Ryan will be slinging it all night, given that he has no run game to fall back on. Whether he can hit Julio Jones often enough though, is doubtful.
There should be a ton of points, but I think the visitors will probably have too much.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3 @ 1.97
Pick: Over 54.5 @ 1.92
Pick: 1st TD Julio Jones @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Jordan Matthews @ 2
However, Atlanta have gone out and tried to fill the obvious deficiencies and if anyone is going to build a defence, it's Dan Quinn. The problem is, it may be too soon to meet a high octane offense like the Eagles.
Of course Philadelphia are also trying to restructure a secondary that was often woeful last season and Matt Ryan will be slinging it all night, given that he has no run game to fall back on. Whether he can hit Julio Jones often enough though, is doubtful.
There should be a ton of points, but I think the visitors will probably have too much.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3 @ 1.97
Pick: Over 54.5 @ 1.92
Pick: 1st TD Julio Jones @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Jordan Matthews @ 2
Sunday 13 September 2015
Live NFL - New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys 1.25am
Murray will be a big miss, but the Giants look vulnerable against the pass and Romo should have time to throw.
Again though, not a big bet - its difficult to lean too heavily on the Cowboys' D.
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -6 @ 1.92
Pick: Over 52.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Jason Witten @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Shane Vereen @ 3.75
Again though, not a big bet - its difficult to lean too heavily on the Cowboys' D.
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -6 @ 1.92
Pick: Over 52.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Jason Witten @ 13
Pick: Anytime TD Shane Vereen @ 3.75
Live NFL - Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos 9.25pm
Baltimore are mighty salty up front on both sides of the ball and they're going to get after what looks like a suspect and inexperienced Broncos' O line - old wet spaghetti arm will need to lean heavily on the newly anointed C J Anderson.
The Ravens though, have Flacco under centre; he's unpredictable at the best of times, and with almost no-one left to throw it to (he'll try to hurl it deep to Steve Smith a couple of times) he'll also need his RB to shine and Justin Forsett just might. Denver are strong defending deep and pass rush, so Forsett catching out of the backfield and running behind a fine O line may have a big game.
Not a game to get heavily involved in (in fact, I'd leave it alone) but I'll take the points.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens +5 @ 1.91
Pick: First TD CJ Anderson @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Justin Forsett @ 2
The Ravens though, have Flacco under centre; he's unpredictable at the best of times, and with almost no-one left to throw it to (he'll try to hurl it deep to Steve Smith a couple of times) he'll also need his RB to shine and Justin Forsett just might. Denver are strong defending deep and pass rush, so Forsett catching out of the backfield and running behind a fine O line may have a big game.
Not a game to get heavily involved in (in fact, I'd leave it alone) but I'll take the points.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens +5 @ 1.91
Pick: First TD CJ Anderson @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD Justin Forsett @ 2
Live NFL - Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears 6pm
Eddie Lacy will be difficult to stop; he usually runs on the Bears and the home team's move to a 3-4 D may not have bedded in. Similarly, even a Nelson-less Rodgers will find time to give the Chicago defense a big test, particularly against the corners.
On the other side, well, Dom Capers always gives the fragile Cutler fits.
Lacy will pound it, then Rodgers will finish it. Giving less than a TD at Evens looks a knocking bet.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -6.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Eddie Lacy @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Matt Forte @ 2
On the other side, well, Dom Capers always gives the fragile Cutler fits.
Lacy will pound it, then Rodgers will finish it. Giving less than a TD at Evens looks a knocking bet.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -6.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st TD Eddie Lacy @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Matt Forte @ 2
Friday 11 September 2015
Live NFL - Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots 1.30am Friday 11th Sept
The Pats will be fired up here after a soap opera off-season.
Pittsburgh have brought in coaching help on the defensive side, but with suspensions hurting on offense, I like the Pats.
Pick: New England Patriots -7 @ 1.93
Pick: 1st TD Gronkowski @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Dion Lewis @ 3
Pittsburgh have brought in coaching help on the defensive side, but with suspensions hurting on offense, I like the Pats.
Pick: New England Patriots -7 @ 1.93
Pick: 1st TD Gronkowski @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Dion Lewis @ 3
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