Sunday 20 September 2015

Live NFL - New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills 6pm

Tyrod Taylor (a player I have stashed in a few dynasty and keeper leagues because I really rate him) did ok last week in an offense that casts him as a game manager at the moment. He won't be allowed to throw much, but he still made a couple of nice passes last time out and the Pats' secondary is soft. Taylor also always carries the run threat.

The Bills have to put together a run game and the injury reports on McCoy are scary, but it looks as though he'll play. Karlos Williams out of Florida State is next off the rank and doesn't lack talent to match his bulk (hence the Fred Jackson/Bryce Brown sacrifice. The Buffalo run is going up against a frankly poor Pats' run D and Rex Ryan will pound the rock all day, the question is whether that'll produce enough points.

Brady will have a tough go today against a talented, aggressive defense and a coach who has something of a sign over the Pats. New England's young O line should struggle and Tom will need to be on his toes. The Bills will try to take away the short pass and sit on the Gronk and it's worth noting Ryan has schemed that type of defence successfully before.

However, I think there's some value with the Pats with an overreaction to the Bill's result in Week 1. 

The line has flip flopped, with the Pats opening at -1.5, through a pick 'em, to now Bills -1.

I'll take the Pats SU.

Pick: New England Patriots @ 2

Pick: First TD Dion Lewis @ 19
Pick: Anytime TD Julian Edelman @ 2.62

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