NFL - Philadelphia (6-8) at Dallas (8-6)

Sky Sports, Christmas Eve, 9.15pm

If the Giants have beaten the Jets earlier in the day, the Eagles are done for the season; if not, well, I think they come out on top here.

The Philadelphia run is a big threat tonight; obviously Vick is always a danger when he scrambles, but LeSean McCoy has been ripping it up of late and will test a stout Cowboys’ run defense, this means that if they get it going on the ground, when Vick chooses to attack Dallas on the back end, players may have committed further up field – Vick went 21/28 for 279yds and 2 TD in week 8 and if he puts up those numbers again, the Cowboys will struggle.

That’s not to say Dallas is on the back foot here, they’re slightly favoured at home and that’s not a surprise with the weapons at Romo’s disposal. However, the Cowboys must balance the offense out by establishing the run, and with Jones dinged up, that may be a problem, because the Eagles’ pass rush seems to be building some momentum and Dallas are not affording Romo as much protection as he liked; once again, Witten will be vital as an outlet when the hammer’s down, but if Romo can get it out, he still has Robinson, Austin and Bryant who can take advantage of the Eagles’ questionable safeties.

If the Jets win, roll with Philly; if not, take Dallas.

Pick: 1st TD Michael Vick @ 17; 1600; 16/1

Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten @ 2.6; 160; 8/5

NFL - NY Giants (7-7) at NY Jets (8-6)

Sky Sports, Christmas Eve, 6pm

I praise Eli Manning ... and then he performs like he’s only just met the pigskin, and the Giants are beaten by my Redskins. Bizarre.

He was his old bad self, often looking hurried and making bad decisions to get picked three times. That makes things dangerous today, because the Jets can pressure him (13 sacks L4) and the coverage downfield may see him forcing the ball in. There’s no Ballard underneath, and the Giants’ running game isn’t sufficiently reliable to routinely relieve the pressure on their QB, so there’s a distinct risk that the G-Men could get bogged down on offense.

Or ...

Last week was an aberration and Manning and his team will bounce back with the post-season on the line. The Giants must win the NFC East to progress and the formidable Jets secondary is missing Jim Leonhard - the safeties can be attacked. Ahmad Bradshaw’s value this week may not be so much running, as replacing Ballard as that safety valve, catching out of the backfield. Nicks will likely find himself on Revis island and Manningham is limited by injury, but I like Victor Cruz today. The Giants rank third ypg passing and with the Jets keying on stopping the pass, Bradshaw and Jacobs may also find some room.

The Jets will have to deal with Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck and protect Sanchez, who has been sacked seven times in the last two games, but really they should leave it to their running game to open up the Giants, whose front seven has struggled to contain the run all season. The only option for Perry Fewell is to pack the box and give Sanchez no option but to air it out and then rely upon the pressure up front to force him into mistakes.

Or ...

Shonn Green goes hog wild and as he tramples the Giants’ front, eating up the clock and keeping Manning off the field, while opening up the pass for Sanche, who hits Burress, Holmes and Keller; they put the points up, and the Jets’ D does the rest as the G-Men play catch up.

This will be a close, ill-tempered affair after all the trash talking and with so much on the line for both teams. Consistency has been a problem for both sides, but my suspicion is that Manning and the Giants are slightly more clutch than Sanchez and the Jets, so I’ll take the points.

Pick: Giants +3 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1^st TD Victor Cruz @ 10; 900; 9/1

Pick: Anytime TD Dustin Keller @ 2.75; 175; 7/4

NFL - Houston (10-4) at Indianapolis (1-13)

Sky Sports, December 23rd, 1.20am

This one isn’t very complex; the Texans are hobbled under centre and downfield, but have a fantastic run offense. The Colts are just hobbled; Orlovsky is an upgrade from what went before, but the Colts are going up against one of the toughest defenses in the NFL.

Houston will smash it up with the run against a poor, undersized defense, the Colts will try to hang on and make something happen on the other side of the ball. It won’t – give the points.

Pick: Texans -6.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Adrian Foster @ 4.5; 350; 7/2

Pick: Anytime TD Joel Dreesen @ 2.8; 180; 9/5

NFL - Pittsburgh (10-3) at San Francisco (10-3)

ESPN, December 20th, 1.30am

Does Roethlisberger go? I think he will and I like Pittsburgh in this one.

IF HE DOESN'T, DON'T MAKE THE BET.

I’ll try to lay it out in brief, as I know these late night games aren’t favourite reading material!

It’s the defenses that will slug it out tonight – but the 49ers may be regressing having lost two of the last three (the continued absence of Patrick Willis is a blow) and the Steelers seem to be getting stronger.

The San Francisco D has astonishing numbers against the run (not a single rushing TD and no-one has taken them for 100 yards) but I expect Pittsburgh to throw everything at the niners’ front seven to at least check them (they will get after Ben like maniacs, especially with a sub-par Steelers’ O line) before throwing it to attack the home side’s safeties, who can be exploited by the speed of the Steelers’ wideouts. Look for a couple of big plays downfield.

It’ll be a delicate balance, because everyone in the backfield will be trying to keep Roethlisberger upright (there’ll be plenty of two TE sets and Ben in the shotgun) but it’s the sort of tactical change up typical in the NFL.

Pittsburgh will be without Harrison after his outrageous cheap shot, but Woodley should be back and they can pressure Alex Smith who hasn’t the speed of thought, or release, to cope with a collapsing pocket.

This Steeler D doesn’t take the ball away much, or get many sacks, but that has begun to come around and they can exploit a dubious SF O line who are letting Smith get sacked much too much - and tonight his blind side may be missing Joe Staley. Frank Gore is dinged up and the Steelers are tough to run on, so he should be neutralised and the 49ers don’t have the options deep available to Mike Tomlin.

Pick: Steelers +3 @ 1.83; -120; 5/6

Pick: 1st TD Antonio Brown @ 11; 1000; 10/1

Pick: Anytime TD mike Wallace @ 2.1; 110; 11/10

Pick: Total Match Sacks Over 5.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

NFL - New England (10-3) at Denver (8-5)

Sky Sports, December 18th, 9.15pm

I don’t buy Tim Tebow as an NFL QB, but I do buy Denver's astonishing late season momentum. You can get after Tebow, and force him into mistakes and limit his game if you have a tight, aggressive defense ... and tonight he goes up against New England.

Consider this; Brady is 1-6 against the Broncos and the Pats are 2-15 in Denver. Bill Belichick is 3-10 against Denver as a HC. Tebow has 111.0 4th quarter passer rating, the best in the AFC and is 7-1 as a starter.

But it’s the Patriots to take this.

This is pretty simple for me; yes, the New England pass defense is poor, but Tim Tebow and the Broncos are still a run first team. In fact, Denver gives up more points per game than tonight’s opposition, and ranks 16th against the pass, a much more dangerous situation when it’s Brady under centre than Tebow.

If Denver are to win, then they’ll have to pressure Brady (who admittedly had a poor game last week by his standards) and then find a way to limit Rob Gronkowski (Champ Bailey?) and the rest of the New England receivers. Although the Pats have problems along the offensive line, they’re keeping Brady relatively clean in the pocket, although they'll be challenged tonight by Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil.

The second aspect that needs to click for the Broncos is the running game; obviously, this plays more to Tebow’s strengths and Willis McGahee is set to go over 1000 yards on the season, but New England have some run stoppers up front and I’d never want to outsmart Belichick out of the backfield.

I’ll take New England to spoil the party, because this stacks up as Brady against Tebow.

Pick: Patriots-7 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Wes Welker @ 8.5; 750; 15/2

Pick: Anytime TD Aaron Hernandez @ 2.62; 162; 15/8