Sky Sports, December 11th, 6pm
I’m going to oppose the Saints here – despite the
fact they are one of the hottest teams in the NFL at the moment.
New Orleans are putting up insane numbers on
offense – however, their defense (particularly on the ground) is decidedly
suspect and the Titans’ Chris Johnson seems to be hitting his stride after his hold
out/lock out sluggishness and he could have a big day against the New Orleans’ 31st
ranked rush defense (YPC).
Games where the favoured road team is on a
different surface and playing under unfamiliar conditions and the QB splits
reflect those changes, present an interesting betting proposition, and although
opposing a team with the sort of talent and momentum the Saints have is
incredibly risky - it’s worth noting that, despite over 90% of the action being
on New Orleans, the line moved the ‘wrong’ way, as the spread was clipped by as
much as a point and a half in the Saints’ favour.
Brees tends to put up his big passing numbers
inside, and a slightly chillier Nashville may clip his wings a little; he rates
93.5 outside and 115.6 inside and has a TD/INT ratio of 23/5 on turf to 7/6 on
grass and 20/3 to 10/8 indoors versus outdoors.
The Titans will need to rely on Johnson on the
ground; this will keep Brees off the field, wear down an already poor Saints D
and hopefully open up the passing game for Matt Hasselbeck. The danger is that
if the run game doesn’t get going, relying on Hasselbeck and the Titans’
passing game when they’re behind is a horrible thought, even against a New
Orleans’ pass defense that is allowing more than 30 completions a game and has
no pass rush to speak of.
Hasselbeck has been poor recently and his options
out wide are limited (Britt is out, Washington is injured and for some reason
the potentially excellent Jared Cook is ignored, even though today he could
match up on a hapless Roman Harper) but Damian Williams could find some room
deep if the Titans keep Hasselbeck clean in the pocket and the Saints’ corners
continue to struggle. Look for Chris Johnson catching out of the backfield too.
As for the New Orleans’ offense, it’s a bit like
trying to analyse the Packers – there’s so much talent it’s almost pointless to
run through the list. Suffice to say Jimmy Graham is one of the outstanding
talents in football; the Titans are solid on pass D, but have had problems
covering TEs and in any case, a physical specimen like Graham is almost
impossible to shut down. Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas are less potent on the
ground (and this is a pretty stout run D) but Darren Sproles can be dangerous
on his day.
I’d like the weather to be worse, Chris Johnson to
be absolutely trustworthy, Matt Hasselbeck
to have some form and the Titans to have a bunch of better targets out wide,
but I’m still going to be the only person on the planet backing the Titans to
keep their post-season hopes alive.
New Orleans are 2-4 ATS on the road this season and
are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a road favourite.
Tennessee are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a
home underdog of 3.5-10.0 and the Titans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as
a home dog.
Pick:
Titans +4 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11 (Corals)
Pick:
1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 9.0; 800; 8/1 (PP)
Pick:
Anytime TD Damian Williams @ 2.63; 162; 13/8
No comments:
Post a Comment