Sunday 22 April 2012

MLB - Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers ESPN 6pm

After a touch of ill-fortune, I'm bloody but unbowed and it's worth stressing that betting on baseball is a war of attrition.

In this one, I'm going with Detroit. Colby Lewis has struggled against the Tigers (he's 2-2 with a 7.48 ERA career against them and 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA at Comerica Park) and although he's a strong pitcher, there are always some teams/parks that pitchers just don't like.

The other factor is Drew Smyly. I've spoken before of my interest in young lefties up against lineups for the first time and that's the case here. There's no doubt Smyly has the stuff, although with this Rangers lineup, it'll be some test.

Something to note - major league hitters are by definition highly adaptable (there's a lot of different stuff coming in from 60 yards away) and if you're sitting pretty on Smyly, think about laying some back when he goes through the order for a second time.

I also like the Under here.

Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 121/100; 2.21; 121
Pick: Under 9.5 @ 10/11; 1.91; -110

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