Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
The Pats look 'the team most likely' here, largely because their offense
doesn't miss a step, even when it loses key players. The question for
the purposes of picking ATS, is whether the Ravens can get within 8
points.
I've opposed Baltimore all year,and they've murdered me, but I'm
going to roll with them here: Flacco has been competent (10.8 YPA, and
five scores to zero picks) and deep threats that can give the Pats'
secondary problems. Torrey Smith will likely draw Aqib Talib, so look
for Pitta and Boldin underneath against injured safeties. Baltimore also
have run game that, even against this New England defense, is a danger.
I'll take the points.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens +8 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Ray Rice @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Aaron Hernandez @ 2.1; Wes Welker @ 2.2; Dennis Pitta @ 2.88
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
This looks like the 49ers all the way. Their O line can dominate up
front and if Colin Kaepernick can reproduce last week's form, the
Falcons, who have struggled to contain QBs who can run, could find
themselves in trouble. Atlanta have to get after Kaepernick, but with
Abraham nicked up and that O line to contend with, they'll have to blitz
hard and shouldn't get home often enough.
The Falcons rank 20th against the run and Frank Gore (backed up by
LaMichael James) can have a big game too, further complicating life for
Atlanta. Deeper, San Francisco aren't loaded with options, but do have
Michael Crabtree, whose ability to gain yards after the catch may make
him the most dangerous player on the field.
The Falcons have struggled
with TE's recently, giving up at least 50 yards in four of the last five
games, and while Vernon Davis hasn't exactly thrived with Kaepernick
under centre, he has big play potential in a game where the middle of
the field is likely to be open.
Atlanta are tough in the Georgia Dome, and Tony Gonzalez, Roddy
White and Julio Jones through the air, and Michael Turner and Jacquizz
Rodgers on the ground is no mean offense. Justin Smith in the lineup is a
boon for the 49ers' defense and they'll need to bring pressure without
exposing the secondary. Michael Turner seemed rejuvenated last week, but
is going up against Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman so he might find
it tougher going this afternoon.
The 49ers rank 4th against the pass, but the Falcons bring quite an
aerial attack and their O line has come together nicely. Matt Ryan can
operate effectively in the pocket and if he chooses his moment, this is a
secondary that can be beaten.
The 49ers have struggled on the road in the post-season, and haven't
won three in a row this season. The Georgia Dome is a loud, difficult
place to play, so the weight of money for San Francisco may have a few
anxious moments, but on balance the away team look too powerful and too
complete.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -3.5
Pick: 1st TD Colin Kaepernick @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Michael Crabtree @ 2; Julio Jones @ 2.15
No comments:
Post a Comment