Sunday 18 January 2015

Live NFL - Conference Championship - Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks 8.05pm Sky Sports

After hitting every game last week (we had porridge with milk for breakfast!) let's see what we can do as we get to the business end.

The number has bounced about a bit, but settled at -8 on the home team.

Ordinarily, this would be an automatic bet on the dog, but Rodgers' injury and the Seahawks' ferocious front seven combine to make me think that the Packers will struggle - especially if it rains. The change up to Eddie Lacy might not help as the Seattle run defense is just as aggressive, so it's Rodgers with a torn calf against the Legion of Doom on a tear.

I expect Seattle to pound the rock with Lynch; Green Bay gave up 145/1 to Dallas last week on the ground and Wilson might find room too against a Green Bay D that doesn't cope well with mobile QBs.

Keep stakes small, but I like Seattle.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -8 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Marshawn Lynch @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Russell Wilson @ 2.62

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