It looks as though Megatron goes into this one as more than a decoy (even running routes as best he could on one knee last week, he dropped a TD pass) and that means that the rest of the Lions' offense becomes more potent: when teams are able to key on Reggie Bush, Matt Stafford's options are limited, with Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush is a game-changing threat running and catching. Cincinnati have a tough defense and the interior lineman are excellent, but concerns about the Detroit O line were allayed a little last week, but Stafford is playing some great football regardless.
The Bengals have weapons all over the place, but the problem is Dalton often makes poor decisions under centre. This seems to flow back and forth to the sidelines and the coaching decisions often look poorly judged too, making the team infuriatingly erratic. Detroit should bring pressure on Dalton (although they haven't exactly been tearing it up, they rank 26th with just 12 sacks) and if they can hurry him, they can slow an offense, led by the excellent A J Green, that really should be ranking better than 12th in total yards.
Outside of Megatron (whose fitness essentially decides the game) look for both sides' TEs to play a significant role; Cincinnati's as an outlet for Dalton (the Lions have struggled to cover TEs all season) and Joseph Fauria in the redzone for Detroit - his ability to win jump balls against defenders is scary and he's emerging as a favourite target for Stafford close in.
This isn't a game to get heavily involved in and (despite my awful totals' record!) the value looks the Overs in what should be a shoot-out in Ford Field.
Pick: Detroit Lions -1.5 @ 1.91
Pick: Over 46 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD A J Green @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Calvin Johnson @ 2; Joseph Fauria @ 3
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