Normally, opposing the herd is the way to go, and the public is all over the Bengals like a fat lad at a buffet, but in this game I can't see past the home team; they just have too much on either side of the ball.
Cincinnati are 8-0 at home and Andy Dalton's numbers are far better in Paul Brown Stadium which is more important than it might seem, because Dalton is prone to turning the ball over. The Law Firm and Bernard are a nice one/two punch on the ground and given the weather forecast, the ability to control the run game may be critical. The Bolts' secondary is poor, despite picking up down the stretch, and A J Green matches up nicely on Shareece Wright and Richard Marshall at the corners; there's also a decent support cast downfield.
Ryan Mathews should be held in check by a decent Bengals' defensive front, forcing Philip Rivers to the air and while San Diego does have talent over the top with Antonio Gates and Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead catching out of the backfield, Cincinnati ranks 5th in average yards given up per game against the pass and the weather may be limiting.
I have the Bengals a TD better. I also like the Under.
Pick: Cincinnati -6.5 @ 1.93
Pick: Under 47.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD A J Green @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD BenJarvus Green-Ellis @ 2.3
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