NFL - Detroit (10-6) at New Orleans (13-3)

Sky Sports, Sunday 1am

Detroit have the best receiver in the NFL, but New Orleans have Drew Brees and a whole slew of options – if Matt Flynn picked apart the Lions, Brees could run riot.

The gambler in me looks at this as a classic opportunity to oppose the herd, because even giving up double digits, the Saints are still being backed, but looking at the match ups I think (a bit like the Bengals) this game may have come a tad early for Detroit. New Orleans put up crazy numbers in the Superdome and will score a lot of points – the question is whether the Lions can hang with them. One critical area they must control is the penalty yards they give up – free yards to this Saints’ offense will murder them; apart from the Raiders, Detroit are the most penalised team in the NFL.

Detroit have some players back and that means it’s not entirely the same outfit that faced the Saints earlier in week 13. Aaron Berry is back, and Ndamukong Suh,  Chris Houston and Louis Delmas will be playing against the Saints for the first time this season after being suspended and injured respectively.

The Lions have a decent defensive front, and will challenge the New Orleans offensive line, but that group has also been solid all season, with some nice veteran talent keeping Brees upright.

Brees has the luxury of considerable flair both downfield and catching out of the backfield. Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem and Darren Sproles are all capable of big plays and Lance Moore operates nicely in the slot. That’s a pretty potent offensive unit, but oddly perhaps the element that will keep them rolling is the ground game; the Saints rank 6^th ypg on the ground and have a number of backs to rotate through, this allows Sean Payton to mix it up and keep defenses off-balance.

Megatron. The finest receiver in the NFL and someone I’m looking forward to watching tonight; his power, athleticism and skill, set this knackered old heart a-pounding. His ability to go up in double, even triple coverage and come down with the ball is almost magical. Stafford has been red hot down the stretch averaging 428 ypg. That all means Calvin Johnson will need to be double covered all night, which leaves the rest of the receiving corps with chances. Look for Pettigrew over the middle against some banged up linebackers.

Greg Williams will have to use all kinds of blitz packages to shake up Stafford, but the Saints aren’t a big sack unit; their greatest hope is the leaky Lions’ O line and the fact that Stafford may be trying to keep pace and will have to force some plays. The other weakness is Detroit’s running game, which is nicked up. Kevin Smith and Maurice Morris seem more effective catching out of the backfield and the Saints are solid enough against the run.

Giving up this many points in the post-season, and against an offense as potent as Detroit’s looks risky, but I’ll put my faith in the Saints.

Pick: Saints -10 @ 2.00; 100; Evens (Lads)

Pick: 1^st TD Darren Sproles @ 9.0; 800; 8/1

Pick: Anytime TD Nate Burleson @ 3.25; 225; 9/4*

Pick: Buy Match TD Yardage @ 140