The Raiders can't run the ball (not that it matters, as Kansas don't give up much on the ground) and that's too heavy a load for Derek Carr to carry - he'll be forced into long third downs and the Raiders will stumble too often.
Alex Smith is a passenger for the Chiefs, and the Raiders can bring pressure, but Jamaal Charles will move the chains and I expect him and possibly Knile Davis (late on) to take it to the house.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 @ 2.0
Pick: 1st TD Jamaal Charles @ 5
Pick: Anytime TD Knile Davis @ 3.3
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