Thursday 6 October 2011

Detroit at New York Yankees

MLB

Detroit at New York Yankees
Friday October 7th 1am
ESPN America

Starting Pitchers
Detroit: Fister (11-14, 3.01 ERA)
New York: Nova (17-4, 3.67 ERA)

Win or go home, baby.

This should be a great game. Both of these are fine pitchers, but Fister getting knocked about in the first game, and Nova pitching shutout ball until late in the same game, are not necessarily great indicators of what will happen tonight.

Nova’s regular season saw him win 16 games and post a 3.70 ERA, and he's been unbeaten in 17 starts. In the final two months of the season, Fister ranked first in the AL in ERA (1.79), second to Verlander for the league lead in wins (eight) and led all Major League pitchers in strikeout-to-walk ratio (11.40).

What I’m leading into here is that this game is one of those bets where the predictive aspect is less important than the prices on offer. Is Nova a back at best price 1.62? No.

The Tigers have seen Nova now, the Bombers know they can reach Fister, it’s Yankee stadium and the hammer is down.

Take Detroit, save it on the totals.

Pick: Tigers @2.58; 158; 79/50
Pick: Over 9 @ 2.00; 100; Evens

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