Sunday 2 October 2011

Detroit (3-0) at Dallas (2-1)

NFL

Detroit Lions (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
Sky Sports 2, 5.30pm

There should be some pretty confident pass rushers suiting up today; Dallas have an O line that is struggling to keep the (now fragile) Tony Romo upright and Detroit have serious issues at tackle, so Matt Stafford is unlikely to get an armchair ride from DeMarcus Ware and his pals.

Miles Austin is out again, and Romo’s downfield options are getting thinner on the ground, making Witten another interesting proposition in the TD market as Romo is forced to check down. If Phil Costa can snap him the ball (he should be OK without Stephen Bowen twisting his melon) then all Romo has to worry about is Kyle Vanden Bosch, Cliff Avril, Ndamukong Suh and Corey Williams.

The usual answer is to change it up with the running game, but Felix Jones is badly banged up and he’s not a powerful, between the tackles, juggernaut. Getting outside beyond Detroit’s speed at LB further limits his game.

Stafford is emerging as a very capable QB, and if he’s given any time at all by his stuttering O line, he can get it done with a quick mind and a strong arm. DeMarcus Ware and the Dallas pass rush will need to get after him, because the Cowboys are vulnerable in the secondary and ‘Megatron’ will score. Add in Pettigrew and Scheffler at TE, Burleson and the rookie Titus Young, and Jahvid Best catching out of the backfield, and Stafford has the weapons to pick on Dallas deep.

It may be a game of ducking and diving QBs, but I like Detroit.

I’ll take the points.

Pick: Lions +2.5 @ 2.00; 100; Evens (Totesports)


Pick: 1st TD Brandon Pettigrew @ 17; 1600; 16/1
Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten @ 2.1; 110; 11/10
Pick: Detroit sacks Buy @ 2.5; 0.25pt/tick

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