Friday 14 October 2011

MLB - Milwaukee at St. Louis

Friday October 14th 1am
ESPN America

Starting Pitchers
Milwaukee: Wolf (13-11, 3.93 ERA)
St. Louis: Lohse (14-9, 3.53 ERA)

Wolf has a 10.43 ERA in his last three starts and a 3-2 record, with a 5.34 ERA in five starts against St. Louis this year. He’s a difficult pitcher to get a read on at Busch Stadium – he’s had four QS there in his career, but he’s also got knocked about a couple of times.

Lohse is 1-2 with a 2.37 ERA this season against the Brewers, and has a poor 2-8 lifetime record against them, but he pitched a beauty against them last time out at home and is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last three starts at Busch Stadium.

My worry is that neither of these pitchers inspires and, although I think the Cards will take this, Lohse is not a 1.74 back.

Instead, I’ll consider this; Lohse is 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA in two career postseason starts and Wolf is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in three career postseason starts, never having gone more than 5 innings.

It’s not a great betting proposition, but I’ll have a small interest in Overs, which looks the only price worth taking here.

Pick: Over 8.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

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