Denver had a slightly bizarre off-season and lost a couple
of key players, but they added some strong talent in key positions on both
sides of the ball.
Baltimore, similarly, lost some important members of the
organisation, including the face of the franchise, Ray Lewis, and players of
the calibre of Ed Reed.
Flacco put the Broncos away last year in the
post-season, but crucially he has lost Boldin and Pitta downfield. The offense
will likely key on Ray Rice therefore, and he should find some joy against an
undersized Denver middle.
The Broncos, of course, go through Peyton Manning and
keeping him upright is their priority. Manning certainly has people to throw to
(the backfield is a mess and will likely see Knowshon Moreno get the nod, if
only for his ability to protect the QB) and if Denver can stifle Terrell Suggs
and Elvis Dumervil, the home team should come out on top.
The Suggs/Dumervil
versus Ryan Clady/Orlando Franklin battle may decide the game, because the loss of
Reed makes the Ravens look vulnerable at safety and raw at linebacker; they have the odd fine player, but
they'll need to juggle the defense to combat the passing attack. Baltimore have
to get to Manning.
I give the edge to the hosts and the points to the visitors, just.
Pick: Denver Broncos -7 @ 1.87
Pick: 1st TD Demayrius Thomas @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Ray Rice @ 2.0
**If you've stumbled on this blog for the first time, I pick ATS and then include the TD bets for a little 'in game' interest.
On a more general point, I wouldn't recommend getting heavily involved in football betting until about Week 3.
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